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Circular Trendlines

  • #561
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:30am Jul 5, 2011 12:30am
Thaks Pip Maker for pointing it out. I guess you are talking about the fibonacci levels of the drop from 4940-3965

One more thing I want to add in regards to the fibonacci level of retracement that I am seeing right now from 4103-4577 is that we are at the 23.6 fibonacci level of that entire rise.

One very prominent characteristics of strong impulse waves is that in the inital stages of their development, not a lot of them will retrace to 50% fibonacci levels.

Most retracements are to 23.6 with few to 38.2 and very rarely to 50.0 level fibonacci.

When you switch to a higher time frame such as H2 time frame, you eliminate a lot of noise in the rise from 4103 and you can see that the retracement level is clearly 23.6 and the retracement has taken more time than other ones, making itself quite prominent.




Quoting Pip Maker
Right now eur/usd didn't break 61.8 fibo level so its going down to 50.0 level 1.4456 and if i'll break it will retrace more to 38.2 area which is 1.4358 its about same where Kambooj is saying it might touch.
  • #562
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:36am Jul 5, 2011 12:36am
Here is another view..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 94 KB
  • #563
  • Jul 5, 2011 12:40am Jul 5, 2011 12:40am
I agree with you brother, so we touched 61.8 fibo level and looks like it started to retrace.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #564
  • Jul 5, 2011 7:10am Jul 5, 2011 7:10am
The Inside perimeter of the red circle is holding well, confirming that the red circle is the support that the EUR will abide for a while.

If a thrust happens upwards it will easily go very close to the center of the circle, before slowing down. There wouldnt be any touch points to the perimeter of the circle before it gets close to the center.

This also implies a strong powerfull spike of some sort is in the works of this pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 109 KB
  • #565
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:17am Jul 5, 2011 9:17am
The EUR is holding its position quite well as far as the support level that is associated with the perimeter of the red circle is concerned.

It is also building itself upon a smaller black circle, which is the natural thing to do in cases where a strong support zone is being defended. These type of smaller circles on top of bigger ones do happen when a fortress of defense is starting to take shape against a important territory.

The odd spike might happen to the 4435 region, where the dotted red line is, but to do that it has to break the small black circle which is acting like a fortress, and it will be hard to do so.

We should experience a fast surge to 4700 region soon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M10.jpg Size: 91 KB
  • #566
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:31am Jul 5, 2011 9:31am
The 2 blue and red circles have motion bouncing between each other, and are almost equal in size to each other, with the lower red circle starting to gain advantage in terms of the place where price might hit it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #567
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:35am Jul 5, 2011 11:35am
The bounce off the 4440 region, will be the start of a series of quick upward motions that will eventually find 4700 region to be the spot where motion will start to show signs of retracement.

Quoting Kambooj
The EUR is holding its position quite well as far as the support level that is associated with the perimeter of the red circle is concerned.

It is also building itself upon a smaller black circle, which is the natural thing to do in cases where a strong support zone is being defended. These type of smaller circles on top of bigger ones do happen when a fortress of defense is starting to take shape against a important territory.

The odd spike might happen to the 4435 region, where the dotted red line is, but to do that it has to break the small...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 76 KB
  • #568
  • Jul 5, 2011 1:12pm Jul 5, 2011 1:12pm
Kambooj says we gonna see 1.4700 area soon, my calculations shows that we gonna see at least 1.4663 with stop loss at 1.4370 just below the Daily Pivot Point.

I'll wait for pullback and enter long.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #569
  • Jul 5, 2011 1:17pm Jul 5, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting Pip Maker
Kambooj says we gonna see 1.4700 area soon, my calculations shows that we gonna see at least 1.4663 with stop loss at 1.4370 just below the Daily Pivot Point.

I'll wait for pullback and enter long.
This is hard time no body know for sure where it's going but we do our best
For me i c next stop 4340
  • #570
  • Jul 5, 2011 1:25pm Jul 5, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting egkid
This is hard time no body know for sure where it's going but we do our best
For me i c next stop 4340
Yes maybe 4340 because 38.2 fibo level broke down right?
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #571
  • Jul 5, 2011 1:29pm Jul 5, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting Pip Maker
Yes maybe 4340 because 38.2 fibo level broke down right?
One of my reasons Fib 50%
C U must go now
  • #572
  • Jul 5, 2011 4:19pm Jul 5, 2011 4:19pm
I think there are more trend down fipponance until 50 or 61 for the observed image if it was right
http://www.mediafire.com/i/?9at3g73pkug3brp
http://www.mediafire.com/i/?9at3g73pkug3brp
  • #573
  • Jul 5, 2011 4:45pm Jul 5, 2011 4:45pm
I think there are more trend down fipponance until 50 or 61 for the observed image if it was right


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7-6-2011 12-06-37 AM.jpg Size: 206 KB
  • #574
  • Jul 5, 2011 6:15pm Jul 5, 2011 6:15pm
EUR/USD is overbought on Daily and Monthly TF.

MA on 4H is crossing the candlestick so another sign of reversal.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #575
  • Jul 5, 2011 8:40pm Jul 5, 2011 8:40pm
Is there any way to draw circles or arcs that anchors the center from a point to any other point on the chart on MT4?

The Fibonacci Arc drawing tool only anchors the center from between two points.
  • #576
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:26pm Jul 5, 2011 9:26pm
I am not quite sure what you mean, maybe you can take a print screen and take it to photoshop or another picture editing software and post what you are implying,

If you are talking about freestyle curve drawing, I dont think MT4 can do it, but I was also wondering whether you have checked my postings on the first page or not.

Thanks

Quoting mindreality
Is there any way to draw circles or arcs that anchors the center from a point to any other point on the chart on MT4?

The Fibonacci Arc drawing tool only anchors the center from between two points.
  • #577
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:33pm Jul 5, 2011 9:33pm
I have to check for reversal, but up to 4360 I still think there is a strong opportunity for a bullish scenario as I have mentioned prevously in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post4750669

Right now its at 4356 and had a good size rebound off 4400 zone.

I still have to take all possible curves that could imply a bullish scenario into account, and at the moment I am waiting on the sideline for few more hour to pass to see how is the reaction of the EUR to 4500 zone.

Quoting Pip Maker
EUR/USD is overbought on Daily and Monthly TF.

MA on 4H is crossing the candlestick so another sign of reversal.
  • #578
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:40pm Jul 5, 2011 9:40pm
Your pink and blue circles are showing support at 4350-4375 zone, and they could be authentic, but need to wait for the openning of the EUR Session for price action to stabalize a bit more.

There could be a shifting of the circle on the hourly chart in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post4751805

Or a transition to another circle where it still implies bullishness, but on a different path.

The shifting of the circle is a low probability guess, but what I am pondering at the moment is another circle where motion is using it to go upwards, and I cant see it at the moment.

So the bounce off 4400 could be from the south pole of some other circle, and its a question that I want to wait a bit to see what happens next.


Quoting Autumn Leave
I think there are more trend down fipponance until 50 or 61 for the observed image if it was right

  • #579
  • Jul 5, 2011 9:54pm Jul 5, 2011 9:54pm
The scenario that I am checking at the moment is a bullishness scenario with a slight transition to a different circle from the original red circle that I was monitoring in previous posts. This is the blue dotted circle.

I am not saying long or short at the moment, but all I can say from a behaviour perspective is that:

If the EUR is to maintain its bullishness, it has to show acceleration through 4500 zone, and quickly reach 4550. If it doesnt then we might be starting to switch to bearishness. But its too early to tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #580
  • Jul 5, 2011 11:17pm Jul 5, 2011 11:17pm
In the previous post, it was mentioned that a possible bullish scenario is being monitored,

In this scenario a possible bearish scenario is shown where motion is engulfed withing the curves shown.

The bearish situation at the moment looks like it will go to 4550, then dip really strong and hard to below 4400. This is not confirmed, but the problem with this scenario is the hard bounce off the lower black line, and then again another harder bounce off 4550, which is again unlikely since that region has been already been attacked once and its becoming weak for a second round of bounces downwards.

Currently the points on the bullish case carry more weight than this one.

But its shown from a alternate bearish point of view.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 109 KB
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