EURUSD

Miau ...

I definitely prefer this one in that case ...


http://i1220.photobucket.com/albums/...albe-Basis.jpg





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Price appears to be really respecting the round 50 zones. Chart here simply shows 1.4x50 levels with surrounding s/r. Also added in 1.4325 since it came in to play.

I think what can be garnered from this chart is that closing above the hourly candle above 1.4x50, using a stop loss of 25 pips and targeting 100 pips profit, would have resulted in three winning trades with risk/reward ratio of 4:1. I am looking to apply this strategy if new highs are made above 1.4450 toward 1.4550.

.....maybe in this case and this time...but this strategy wont work in the long run

My indicator gave me a "Sell signal" on Friday, and I am still on shorts for EURUSD @ 1.44680

Fortunately is a small trade, and my margin is wide enough, so I'll keep the position.

(I am following a strict strategy with no chance to choose)

So... "Fastening my seat belts"... I think the EUR will go up.. and I'm going down

BUT THE MARKET MAY GO REVERSE... LET SEE...

Greeting and good pips 4 U !

I don't normally trade this way at all to be honest. I picked up some ideas of dustbin style from this thread and am just using a lazy sunday to try and look for "alternative entry" ideas. Is a trade working out 3 times in a row that gets a 4:1 r/r going to work out a 4th time? It's debatable, but I'd say the probalities would most likely be in your favour to try it on the 4th instance, since there are other supporting factors towards a sustained bullish move over the coming days/weeks.

really?

OK...this is a bit tough to put clearly into words while keeping it short...I'll do my best.

First of all, I will preface this by saying that this is really only relevant to me when scalping...and entering or closing my swing trades. On my long-term trades...it means almost nothing to me...except I may add positions around these levels in the direction that I am building my long-term hold (short this pair at the moment). Large psych levels concern me on long-term plays, ie $1.50. Anyway...that is another topic.

OK...it is not my money that moves markets. Its not mine and yours combined. Its those with millions, billions and trillions. I'm a firm believer that they aren't sitting around placing orders at 1.45272...that's what chumps like us do trying to follow their money (obviously news, disasters, CB interventions throw this out the window, in which case it is buy, buy, buy...or sell, sell, sell!). Nice big round numbers are the main drivers for the ...er, main drivers of the markets... 1.4500, 1.4550, 1.4600 etc.

It just seems to be how the market flows. Any large options you hear about are usually placed at those levels, too...so it makes sense that there will be a constant push and pull around those figures, as one party tries to achieve, or protect their targets/barriers...and their counter-party tries to ruin their day, week or month. There are so many different types of options...vanilla, digital, one-touch, double one-touch, double no-touch. They require some homework, but if you don't know what they all are, I would encourage you learn about them. They leave their footprints all over your charts, and can often help explain some irrationality of the markets; if I had billions at stake, and billions more to achieve my goal, I might do some pretty irrational things to protect it.

Anyway...back to the figures I was referring to...

xx10
xx20
xx33
xx50
xx66
xx80
xx90
xx00

Here is a sample M5 chart from Friday...going into the close. It includes a 100pip range from 1.4433 to 1.4533. I've put a line at each level, and drawn some circles where the levels were touched and decisions were made as to the next direction...



So...of course, the figures aren't respected to the 5-digit tick, but to me, it is quite clear decisions are being made around those levels. Say we're at 1.4500...the market asks is this fair value? No...we should be at 1.4550. OK, let's go there. At 1.4520, again the question is asked...still fair and heading to 1.4550? Somebody says no...1.4500 is fair. Pulls back to 1.4510 and then somebody says...I SAID 1.4550! Back up we go. Same question asked at 1.4533...still sure about 1.4550? Hmmmmm...maybe not now. Drifts back to 1.4520. If it doesn't get overruled and head north again, 1.4500 will start to act like a magnet. Well...maybe we should actually be at 1.4450 then?

Fak...this is difficult to try and put into words without sounding like a total knob! This is dragging out, too...knew it would. I'll try and wrap it up.

Here is another way I will use them specifically...



This works on xx00 and xx50 values. The market seems content with price, but gives a hint as to which side the short term bias lies by which side of the figure it is hovering. Some other observations about the specific values...

xx00 and xx50:
Obvious...no explanation needed, I believe.

xx10 and xx90:
Common levels for stop hunts and evidence of options getting hit. ie: Price breaks 1.4600 from below...travels to 1.4606 and then slams south violently...or...price breaks 1.4400...hits 1.4392 then breaks violently north.

xx20 and xx80: Can again be evidence of stop hunts or fake and shakes. Say price breaks 1.4600 and prints a fresh M15 bar above 1.4610. A lot of traders may enter long expecting continuance. If it doesn't break 1.4620...perfect time for a trap. Also...say we're heading north from 1.4550 but we can't crack 1.4580. The market is just showing 1.4600 is considered a little overvalued for now...maybe next time.

xx33 and xx66: Again, where barrier protection can kick in for xx50 valued options. If no options around, these levels still seem to be around where the market asks...is xx50 fair value? If no...it will start to head back toward the xx00 levels...with the question being asked at the xx20 or xx80 mark again. xx50 or xx00...where to?

I'm probably leaving loads of questions unanswered right now, but that is the basics of those figures for me. They are just burned into my head...every pair...every chart. I watch PA around them to get a sense of whether the market thinks it is over or under valued. I still use trendlines, S&R...fibs....blah, blah, blah. I also set my own levels for what is referred to around here as "dustbin" trades, but the figures above are just a fundamental part of market flow to me.

I've attached an indicator called "SweetSpots" that will plot these lines for you. I still have it on some of my templates, but these figures have been burned in for me for about four years now. I don't think it will plot them all. My templates have them at:

xx00
xx20
xx33
xx50
xx66
xx80

xx10 and xx90 are easy enough to "imagine" in your head!

Well...I hope that is of some use to somebody. Best I can do right now...bit of a long weekend boozey-soaked brain! Will be taking tomorrow off to have another BBQ with some American friends...can't let them have all the fun...and beer!

If I've left anything really obvious out, or you want me to elaborate on something...fire away. If you think I'm talking shite, and hallucinating...well...fire away, too, if you want. But, I should forewarn you...my account balances said...you can kiss their arse!

Enjoy what's left of your day...and happy birthday tomorrow, Ameri-kay!

would be a pretty simple backtest if anyone wants to test it

"SweetSpots" didn't attach. Here it is...

Hehe ^^

How about some little tiny direct rise ?

Break on thru (the Chinese Wall) ... and not come back that much ...



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Very nice post, thanks!

Cheers Ramses!

You just justified my time...and the difficulty of thinking/typing with a fragile head!

All the best

http://image.ticcity.de/images/image...ling-bling.jpg

thanks for this insight, very helpful information for me....will consider it and try to add it to my system n bias.

have a good taste at your BBQ tomorrow ....and some Erdingers

.....still have a sick hangover here.... off tot he tv now

catch ya later...

http://rlv.zcache.com/funny_barbecue...53trdg_400.jpg

we just had one. beginning of this year through couple months ago.

yo ken. it's been a while.

How are you doing, brother?

Been TOO long! Where do you hideout around here? Always like seeing your views! Hope you're having a great weekend...full of fireworks, meat and beer...like mine!

Good to see you, mate!

Will do, Uncle! Will do!

home.

happy 4th of july bro.

Many will get BBQued in the next 36 hours between these two pink lines.
According to my definition of a break, 1.4500 has been penetrated but not broken unless we see a nice bullish candle.