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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #283,081
  • Jul 2, 2011 4:39am Jul 2, 2011 4:39am
Quoting ambroni
Yah got it, this is my last post... zero, BB king and Gator is the best trades.
i like when people call me "b@##$%", because i call it traders sentiment. from there i know how to screw up the trent. avios... i'm finish my experiment.
...GU...is...The...First... i'm loss the H but change with t... some one now what meaning is.
hello
sorry yesterday i went offline was very tired.
thanks for compliments but i must say that what i share here is what i learnt here with other traders support, and most of times i share hpoing that if i do something completely wrong (everey day i do!) i can recover the mistake by looking other's studies
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #283,082
  • Jul 2, 2011 5:07am Jul 2, 2011 5:07am
Personally I would say Cable will go up next week, I am 100% sure based on my own technical analysis
  • #283,083
  • Jul 2, 2011 5:21am Jul 2, 2011 5:21am
Quoting Geene
Mind games...
hello,
i need to post 2charts and give you a real example:

below is h1 n m1
looking h1 now seems obvious that it was a long position, but it is not that as we know....!

i went short after data near 6025 and did not close near 6000 (...) went stopped out @6025 (i always move SL @Bep as soon as i can) when price was 1st green ellipse in the left.
then i was scared to pick long position.
i picked long 2 positions only at the second ellipse..
price went up then went against me and i was looking if hold or close it
i had sl @6030 below the fibo line but i hold the position only because i saw the reaction in the 3rd ellipse.

the main PA is the 3rd ellipse. it has been the key for the second h1 candle to go more up and let me hold my 2positions also if in loss of 10-15 pips

a different price action and pattern at 3rd ellipse, and i would have closed immediatly my positions, even if in loss doesnt matter.

this is what i mean by perception and by sayin that things first happens in m1 m5 etc... then in h1 then in h4 etc...
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #283,084
  • Jul 2, 2011 5:26am Jul 2, 2011 5:26am
Quoting mrforexlee
Personally I would say Cable will go up next week, I am 100% sure based on my own technical analysis
hello
personally i also think possible to see 61 area.
but i want a clear sign above 6080!
will see what happen start of the week
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #283,085
  • Jul 2, 2011 7:57am Jul 2, 2011 7:57am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello
personally i also think possible to see 61 area.
but i want a clear sign above 6080!
will see what happen start of the week
but the sentiment seem bearish . hmm... that makes me doubt for a second
  • #283,086
  • Jul 2, 2011 9:46am Jul 2, 2011 9:46am
I will Go Up Insya Allah for Cable next week, but to be saved I'll divide my TP becoming 2TPs.. :
1. TP 1.6093
2. TP 1.6125

And then I 'll watch the Price Action..

Feel Free to give an input
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  • #283,087
  • Jul 2, 2011 1:21pm Jul 2, 2011 1:21pm
Quoting mrforexlee
but the sentiment seem bearish . hmm... that makes me doubt for a second
There is one easy way to see the market sentiment.. it is to use the Pivot point as the based, if there is a bullish candle stick breakout the pivot point its mean the market sentiment is in Bullish.. For sure It doesnt mean always like that is why we need to make the S/R line and see how the Price acted on those line, and to know the Price Action it is really important to know the candle stick analysis.. May this being a useful information..
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  • #283,088
  • Jul 2, 2011 2:09pm Jul 2, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting sinchan
There is one easy way to see the market sentiment.. it is to use the Pivot point as the based, if there is a bullish candle stick breakout the pivot point its mean the market sentiment is in Bullish.. For sure It doesnt mean always like that is why we need to make the S/R line and see how the Price acted on those line, and to know the Price Action it is really important to know the candle stick analysis.. May this being a useful information..
Thank you for explanation , I thought there is correlation between EU (euro) and GU (Cable) , what I mean is currently the sentiment for Euro USD and AUD USD and NZD USD are bearish. so does your explanation suggest that Cable works the opposite way or reverse to Euro's and other major dollars sentiment?

Another confusion that I have, which is information that I have obtained from GU cable , 4H chart MACD indicate that GU is going to consolidation stage which is sideway and tend to move lower , for 1D chart GU is going to create a Bullish Trend. These are the points that makes me doubt.
  • #283,089
  • Jul 2, 2011 4:40pm Jul 2, 2011 4:40pm
Quoting mrforexlee
Thank you for explanation , I thought there is correlation between EU (euro) and GU (Cable) , what I mean is currently the sentiment for Euro USD and AUD USD and NZD USD are bearish. so does your explanation suggest that Cable works the opposite way or reverse to Euro's and other major dollars sentiment?

Another confusion that I have, which is information that I have obtained from GU cable , 4H chart MACD indicate that GU is going to consolidation stage which is sideway and tend to move lower , for 1D chart GU is going to create a Bullish Trend....
Let share together what we now each other, to get our knowledge better..

A daily pivot we can use it from TF 1m to Daily TF.. If you come to weekly then we need to calculate a weekly pivot point (High Price + Low Price + Close price ) divided 3..

If we look up to daily TF , there is a body of candle stick cross the Daily pivot point..but again it depend on which TF we want to trade, smaller TF provide us a more detail data on what gonna be in the bigger TF..

There is a currency correlation and mostly Cable is having a coefficient correlation 0.94 with the euro since they are neighbor.. As we can see also the Euro is breaking the daily pivot as cable..

For sure we need to now is it the real breakout or just a fake out..The characteristic of cable is one of the most volatile, bouncing (ck..I got this effect on Friday, because I got greedy at that time, My Bad ) and ranging .. So we need to know if the breakout is really the breakout or just a fake out, that is why we need to have MACD and ATR indicator..MACD is telling us about the momentum of histogram that is changing from the size and position that can tell us is it really changing of the direction that supported by the momentum or just a fake out..

And if we look the candle stick formation on 15 M there is an island of doji, which can tell us also 2 things : thought fight between the bulls and the bears or second there is because low volatility.. That is why here we need to have the ATR indicator that tell us the volatility of the market and we can see the ATR line show us the low volatility during the formation of those dojis its due to the time of holiday and used to be on Friday after the London session take a break it will be low volatility ..


So if we look on the TF 4 H there is a doji star formation which can lead to the bearish movement but it need to have a further confirmation...

So if U ask me will the cable go north on Sunday, well I am not a God, I have no Idea what will happen even in the next one second but what I can do just prepare an analysis and wait for the further confirmation as a base to go with my analysis or go on the other direction..

So let see on Monday
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  • #283,090
  • Jul 3, 2011 3:01am Jul 3, 2011 3:01am
Let Share what we know each other to get our knowledge better..

Sometimes people just hate the institutional traders and blamed them as the one who takes our money.. Yes I been in that condition when all my capital cash just fly with the wind..

But Most of it when I started evaluate my trading style , its not them to be blamed but its my mistakes where I can not control my emotion and push the market to act as I want To..But the question Who Am I Bro..?? with those money 3,2 trillion USD cash flow in daily , even my country dont have that such big money cash flow in 5 years..So why not we follow their trading style and act just as their action.. So we'll gonna be a small fish behind the Shark..

Mostly in Cable, we used to say this pair is bouncing, ranging, high volatility , a lot of fake out, How Could we get the Money..???

Well, actually that is the things that makes the money, ..

The Institutional Trader it used to trade the fake out, because it is easy to understand the break out then the fake out..

Let see my previous post related the sandwich candle stick, where it is indicated the bulls move after the price made the fake out and retest the pivot point and then drown back to the neckline of double top pattern, that is what used to happen ..

To able to trades the fake out or either the break out we do need to get to know the Price Action combined with the fundamental who drive the price.Because Indicators just tell us how to be rich in the past not what to do Next, ...

Hope this would be useful information to share each other for good..


Salam

So
  • #283,091
  • Jul 3, 2011 3:15am Jul 3, 2011 3:15am
@sinchan

Quote
So we need to know if the breakout is really the breakout or just a fake out, that is why we need to have MACD and ATR indicator..MACD is telling us about the momentum of histogram that is changing from the size and position that can tell us is it really changing of the direction that supported by the momentum or just a fake out..

The MACD is a computation of the difference between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of closing prices. This difference is charted over time, alongside a moving average of the difference and the divergence between the two is shown as a histogram.


The direction of the moving average conveys important information about prices. A rising moving average shows that prices are generally (!!!!) increasing...and that's it.

The longer the moving average periods, the greater the lag in the signals.

Indicator needs price to first to make a move up or down…once this move is made the indicator takes what just occurred and plots a point on the chart.


These indicators can never tell you anything more than what the chart is already saying.

Trader from Croatia
  • #283,092
  • Jul 3, 2011 3:59am Jul 3, 2011 3:59am
looks for test of 6230 area?
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  • #283,093
  • Jul 3, 2011 6:29am Jul 3, 2011 6:29am
H1
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  • #283,094
  • Jul 3, 2011 6:46am Jul 3, 2011 6:46am
Quoting mrforexlee
Thank you for explanation , I thought there is correlation between EU (euro) and GU (Cable) , what I mean is currently the sentiment for Euro USD and AUD USD and NZD USD are bearish. so does your explanation suggest that Cable works the opposite way or reverse to Euro's and other major dollars sentiment?
Hmm I'm probably not the only one who'd completely disagree with that statement.
Aussie sentiment bullish, retest of 1.10 in sight, E/U bullish too, the only USD major predicted to fall further is Cable.
But of course as always we will know more when it's too late
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #283,095
  • Jul 3, 2011 7:55am Jul 3, 2011 7:55am
Quoting stulic
Hmm I'm probably not the only one who'd completely disagree with that statement.
Aussie sentiment bullish, retest of 1.10 in sight, E/U bullish too, the only USD major predicted to fall further is Cable.
But of course as always we will know more when it's too late
well , my statement is taken based on the forexpros.com sentiments , it is not from my personal opinion at all.
  • #283,096
  • Jul 3, 2011 10:10am Jul 3, 2011 10:10am
Quoting bguguen
apparently we're in consolidation between 2 trendlines, best wait for a breakout before you act...

Attachment
Hey folks, pre market update, from last friday this chart shows that we bounced off an important psych level and a rising support trend line... we also broke above the falling resistance trend line, now my bias this week is GU to go up... eyeing at 1.6150 first... and see how things are going... during the week...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #283,097
  • Jul 3, 2011 10:17am Jul 3, 2011 10:17am
Quoting bguguen
Hey folks, pre market update, from last friday this chart shows that we bounced off an important psych level and a rising support trend line... we also broke above the falling resistance trend line, now my bias this week is GU to go up... eyeing at 1.6150 first... and see how things are going... during the week...
correct..
1.634..then get out..its my time after that
  • #283,098
  • Jul 3, 2011 10:28am Jul 3, 2011 10:28am
There will be time to the north during the Asia session, but when the release of the construction PMI its better to leave the technical analysis and just follow through what the fundamental drive us based on the released, which seems to be lower as the Mervin King speak last week was not so optimist with the UK economic data, if so then that is the Time To Short the cable ..

  • #283,099
  • Jul 3, 2011 11:00am Jul 3, 2011 11:00am
Just like the technical analysis, the fundamental analysis also need some analysis before the news been released.. So what need to be done : I think its to read all the journal , articles, related the finance and the economic data of the related country..

On Monday will gonna see the release of UK PMI data, to be able to trade the news and pick a position before the news released we do need our own analysis, because it used to be if jump in after the news is released it will make us to get spread sometimes -17 pips or less and more because the server was full of load..

So before the release publish is better we already in with our SL & TP based on our fundamental analysis..

there are some post related the UK economic information:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...-reaction.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...-recovery.html


Feel free to critics , disagreement, etc since we are here to share each other for our good together
  • #283,100
  • Jul 3, 2011 11:07am Jul 3, 2011 11:07am
just a thought on technical view..
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