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Circular Trendlines

  • #521
  • Jun 30, 2011 8:03am Jun 30, 2011 8:03am
Quoting Kambooj
M30
If we get a bounce off the solid red curve, which was a very strong resistance, we will go as far as 4670. IF on the other hand the red curve is broken, we could go as low as 4307 followed by 4250. In this case its a safer trading environment for a buy opportunity

Right now its not a safe trading zone to either go short or long, because there is no solid confirmation.

But here is the scenario
  • #522
  • Jun 30, 2011 8:20am Jun 30, 2011 8:20am
This is what I am seeing on the 1HR chart. It is moving into a weaker area on the top circle and moving into a stronger area on the bottom circle. Which could cause it to go up further or punch through the bottom circle heading down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: June 30 1HR.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #523
  • Jun 30, 2011 8:23am Jun 30, 2011 8:23am
dear kambooj, i tried drawing circle with quarters kindly comment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: min 10.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #524
  • Jun 30, 2011 8:28am Jun 30, 2011 8:28am
New to the thread so im not sure if im drawing these the correct way. Just took this long with other confirming signals.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: circles.JPG Size: 117 KB
  • #525
  • Jun 30, 2011 9:50am Jun 30, 2011 9:50am
This snapshot along with the 4670 Scenario:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post4740340

will have to be tested.

Your scenario which is sell at 4480-4520 could have some validity if the behaviour towards that region shows some resistance.

The 4480-4520 scenario also could be forming a expanding triangle from a Elliot Wave perspective.

Also there is another thing that I noticed is that the 4480-4520 region is the 127.2 retracement of 4441 to 4099 which goes hand in hand with the expanding triangle scenario which I will post later.

All I am saying that as time has passed, and this 127.2 fibonacci level holds, it might not be a bad idea to try a sell with minimum lot size. But just keep in mind that this thing can go to 4625-4670 region and turn around from there.

But the fibonacci along with your 4480-4520 scenario could be a authentic sell as time goes by and this fibo level holds.

You just have to be cautious and go with small lot size and if it breaks 4340 then add more lots.

Quoting TraderFitz
This is what I am seeing on the 1HR chart. It is moving into a weaker area on the top circle and moving into a stronger area on the bottom circle. Which could cause it to go up further or punch through the bottom circle heading down.
  • #526
  • Jun 30, 2011 9:59am Jun 30, 2011 9:59am
Quoting Kambooj
This snapshot along with the 4670 Scenario:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post4740340

will have to be tested.

Your scenario which is sell at 4480-4520 could have some validity if the behaviour towards that region shows some resistance.

The 4480-4520 scenario also could be forming a expanding triangle from a Elliot Wave perspective.

Also there is another thing that I noticed is that the 4480-4520 region is the 127.2 retracement of 4441 to 4099 which goes hand in hand with the expanding triangle...

I would like to see a chart with the circles and the fibo level you mentioned
  • #527
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:14am Jun 30, 2011 10:14am
A false break of the upper red circle could happen. But this is the 2 sell areas for a downtrend scenario
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #528
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:17am Jun 30, 2011 10:17am
And This is the expanding triangle scenario that I was mentioning:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #529
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:17am Jun 30, 2011 10:17am
Quoting TraderFitz
I would like to see a chart with the circles and the fibo level you mentioned
never mind.... I figured it out
  • #530
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:31am Jun 30, 2011 10:31am
Still monitoring the M1 time frame for the 2 sell spots I have mentioned. This is another observation...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 51 KB
  • #531
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:47am Jun 30, 2011 10:47am
On my first post, I have a section called "Additional Posts To Check" and I update it with any new posts that I feel its important. One of these posts was a quick guide to circle drawing:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post4721073
But here is my quick comments:

Quoting Bayyan
dear kambooj, i tried drawing circle with quarters kindly comment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bayyan_Image.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #532
  • Jun 30, 2011 10:51am Jun 30, 2011 10:51am
They look good, keep up the good work. Just pay attention at where its hitting the circle, specially the poles. As you might have noticed the north pole of your upper circle held the price pretty good and then it went upwards. here is a link to a quick quide on circle drawing. Also check my first page on "Additional Posts To Check"
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post4721073


Quoting A-game
New to the thread so im not sure if im drawing these the correct way. Just took this long with other confirming signals.
  • #533
  • Jun 30, 2011 11:00am Jun 30, 2011 11:00am
Check the m5 below...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 59 KB
  • #534
  • Jun 30, 2011 11:38am Jun 30, 2011 11:38am
Here we are using Median Line along with circles.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #535
  • Jun 30, 2011 2:29pm Jun 30, 2011 2:29pm
thanks for your input i will try drawing some more in diff tf... i m short at 1.4511
  • #536
  • Jun 30, 2011 4:39pm Jun 30, 2011 4:39pm
This is the answer to your scenario in determining which circle will be stronger:

Quoting TraderFitz
This is what I am seeing on the 1HR chart. It is moving into a weaker area on the top circle and moving into a stronger area on the bottom circle. Which could cause it to go up further or punch through the bottom circle heading down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: June 30 1HR.jpg Size: 254 KB
  • #537
  • Jun 30, 2011 8:05pm Jun 30, 2011 8:05pm
Eur/usd I see next target @ 1.4434 1st Support, right now candle formed right under the Daily Pivot Point.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #538
  • Jun 30, 2011 11:08pm Jun 30, 2011 11:08pm
At the moment I wouldnt disagree with you. I am just pondering the idea of a tripple top, but I will wait couple more hours before I do my next posting.


Quoting Pip Maker
Eur/usd I see next target @ 1.4434 1st Support, right now candle formed right under the Daily Pivot Point.
  • #539
  • Jul 1, 2011 1:05am Jul 1, 2011 1:05am
The only way that the EUR will be heading downwards is that on the M5 time frame 4523 gets respected. In that event we will have a dip downwards to 4410,

Otherwise

Several other timeframes such as H2 and M30 point to the vicinity of 4620-4670 region being the important reversal point.

Possible strategy at the moment is a breakout strategy:

above 4523 for a buy
and below 4500 for a sell.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 114 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 120 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #540
  • Jul 1, 2011 7:45am Jul 1, 2011 7:45am
Quoting Kambooj
The only way that the EUR will be heading downwards is that on the M5 time frame 4523 gets respected. In that event we will have a dip downwards to 4410,

Otherwise

Several other timeframes such as H2 and M30 point to the vicinity of 4620-4670 region being the important reversal point.

Possible strategy at the moment is a breakout strategy:

above 4523 for a buy
and below 4500 for a sell.


Hello Kambooj

4523 seems to have been respected. Or is it too early to say ?
If so, what other clues would you be looking for ?

Thanks.
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