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Circular Trendlines

  • #501
  • Jun 29, 2011 10:53am Jun 29, 2011 10:53am
If trusting the Daily Pivot Points which was touched at 1.4329 then I think it should come re-test it again and probably even touch Support 1 at least. But I shouldn't depend only on plain Pivot Points. Any thoughts?

I forgot to mention that Support 1 @ 1.4262 that's on my chars it might be couple pips different on other charts.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #502
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:01am Jun 29, 2011 11:01am
I am just using these opportunities to show some of the other techniques that you can use besides drawing circles in the boundary of moves.

Whenever there is a strong impulse that looks like a straight line at 90 degree angles, one technique that can be used is to put the entire motion in the diameter of a circle which passes through the center and look for any case of symmetry to help make a judgement.

I am not saying there is a symmetry, but this is a additional technique.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #503
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:04am Jun 29, 2011 11:04am
On the H2, this is what I am looking at if we seriously have a out of wack impulse scenario:

Quoting Pip Maker
If trusting the Daily Pivot Points which was touched at 1.4329 then I think it should come re-test it again and probably even touch Support 1 at least. But I shouldn't depend only on plain Pivot Points. Any thoughts?

I forgot to mention that Support 1 @ 1.4262 that's on my chars it might be couple pips different on other charts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H2.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #504
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:15am Jun 29, 2011 11:15am
Pip Maker,
The problem with the previous view is that on the H1 chart, there either has to be a very very strong spike to go upwards, or we are at a point of reversal.

So going to 4672 is some questionable attempt at the moment.

Quoting Kambooj
On the H2, this is what I am looking at if we seriously have a out of wack impulse scenario:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #505
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:18am Jun 29, 2011 11:18am
Ok thats great, so I guess it is more likely now those levels to be touches as I mentioned. But still 50/50, what if another earthquake/tsunami happens somewhere and all predictions go bad lol.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #506
  • Jun 29, 2011 11:23am Jun 29, 2011 11:23am
Quoting Pip Maker
If trusting the Daily Pivot Points which was touched at 1.4329 then I think it should come re-test it again and probably even touch Support 1 at least. But I shouldn't depend only on plain Pivot Points. Any thoughts?

I forgot to mention that Support 1 @ 1.4262 that's on my chars it might be couple pips different on other charts.
Right now it touched R1, so if it retraces back and touches Daily Pivot Point then it might go up more and test R1, R2, R3 or keep coming down to S1, ... I don't know
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #507
  • Jun 29, 2011 3:22pm Jun 29, 2011 3:22pm
I have few drawings which I need time to confirm because its too early to claim anything.

But 4350 - 4360 should be hit tonight, however, if the support at 4360 holds, we are definetly in a situation where a strong impulse wave is going to take us to 4670 region.

If 4360 gets broken lower then we are probably going lower to 4200-4250 zone.

For now if you are on a sell its a good idea to exit at 4360 and stay back to see what happens.
  • #508
  • Jun 29, 2011 3:33pm Jun 29, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting Kambooj
I have few drawings which I need time to confirm because its too early to claim anything.

But 4350 - 4360 should be hit tonight, however, if the support at 4360 holds, we are definetly in a situation where a strong impulse wave is going to take us to 4670 region.

If 4360 gets broken lower then we are probably going lower to 4200-4250 zone.

For now if you are on a sell its a good idea to exit at 4360 and stay back to see what happens.
I'm with you on that one ;D
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #509
  • Jun 29, 2011 4:16pm Jun 29, 2011 4:16pm
Quoting egkid
I will take this trade [email protected]

sorry must go will b back later
[email protected]
Looks to me 1.45xx is next
  • #510
  • Jun 29, 2011 5:50pm Jun 29, 2011 5:50pm
I am thinking of putting a Sell Limit at 4500. Not sure how soon it gets hit but may be a good sell there, things may change as time goes on but I will check back in once in a while to see if I need to rethink the sell.
  • #511
  • Jun 29, 2011 7:10pm Jun 29, 2011 7:10pm
On my charts and my time the 29th day is over and next candle for 30th already begin. So I counted Pivot Points and if I didn't do any mistakes then first R1 is at 1.4520 so I guess we gonna see that level soon.
Lybi lydey, lybi vragov.
  • #512
  • Jun 29, 2011 9:32pm Jun 29, 2011 9:32pm
Quoting Pip Maker
On my charts and my time the 29th day is over and next candle for 30th already begin. So I counted Pivot Points and if I didn't do any mistakes then first R1 is at 1.4520 so I guess we gonna see that level soon.
I think a sell from there is pretty good. Kambooj also mentioned that price in an earlier post. I have my sell limit there, currently.
  • #513
  • Jun 30, 2011 12:03am Jun 30, 2011 12:03am
I Just want to mention that In a previous post I did mention of 4670 as well:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post4737472

Where a situation on the 2 Hour chart has dictated that.

The 4480 scenario was on this posting:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post4731212

But motion is too strong right now for it to reverse at 4480.

So you might want to be a bit cautious about the sell limit.

Specially with this wave that has not retraced at all and is still pushing more upwards. Its gonna go up now to anywhere in between 4625 and 4670. The impulse is very strong and wont rest until then.

I will post some charts in about half and hour / 45 minutes, but the way I see it now, is that the EUR session could push it quite high, given that today is month end too
  • #514
  • Jun 30, 2011 12:14am Jun 30, 2011 12:14am
Quoting Kambooj
I Just want to mention that In a previous post I did mention of 4670 as well:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post4737472

Where a situation on the 2 Hour chart has dictated that.

The 4480 scenario was on this posting:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post4731212

But motion is too strong right now for it to reverse at 4480.

So you might want to be a bit cautious about the sell limit.

Specially with this wave that has not retraced at all and is still pushing more upwards....
Thanks for the word of caution.
I may stick to my original thoughts and not trade this week.
  • #515
  • Jun 30, 2011 1:04am Jun 30, 2011 1:04am
Aside from the H2 time frame on this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post4737472

which is suggeting a strong impulse scenario in the works of this pair, there are other evidences that point to the same situation.

The strongest of these is the 1 Hour time frame.

H1
The motion on the H1 was a combination of tracing through perimeter and center of the circle. The upward motion will end at the other end of this circle which is the also the intersection of several resistance and support levels which are converging at the same spot, increasing the probability of a move towards that area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 150 KB
  • #516
  • Jun 30, 2011 1:12am Jun 30, 2011 1:12am
The way the perimeter of the circles were broken in the M30 and M5 time frame sugget a very strong thrust that has broken many North Poles and perimeters of different resistances, and is not in a position to slow down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 130 KB
  • #517
  • Jun 30, 2011 4:19am Jun 30, 2011 4:19am
In my view next move from 1.45 TO 1.43 ( durning next 24H)
Then we will c what after 1.43
  • #518
  • Jun 30, 2011 6:53am Jun 30, 2011 6:53am
It is just a crazy market, and I am staying on the sideline for now. Not enough solid confirmation, and too many possibilities.

Quoting egkid
In my view next move from 1.45 TO 1.43 ( durning next 24H)
Then we will c what after 1.43
  • #519
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:21am Jun 30, 2011 7:21am
Quoting Kambooj
It is just a crazy market, and I am staying on the sideline for now. Not enough solid confirmation, and too many possibilities.
True very True but what we can DO
  • #520
  • Jun 30, 2011 7:43am Jun 30, 2011 7:43am
M30
If we get a bounce off the solid red curve, which was a very strong resistance, we will go as far as 4670. If on the other hand the red curve is broken, we could go as low as 4307 followed by 4250. In this case its a safer trading environment for a buy opportunity

Right now its not a safe trading zone to either go short or long, because there is no solid confirmation.

But here is the scenario
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M30.jpg Size: 161 KB
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