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Circular Trendlines

  • #441
  • Jun 26, 2011 11:12pm Jun 26, 2011 11:12pm
I am taking a look into it. Right now the drop might go up to 4000. But there are other scenarios too, so I will wait a bit longer to see what happens. Things can change couple of hours before the openning of the EUR session
Quoting TraderFitz
Well that drop to 4100 was a surprise.
  • #442
  • Jun 27, 2011 1:00am Jun 27, 2011 1:00am
Daily
There is still not enough strength for the EUR to go further down, below the May 23 low at 3970.
Motion needs to go higher on this time frame to generate enough potential energy to break the boundaries of the black circle shown. A possible low of 4050-4070 can be expected.

H1
The solid red circle has provided a good measure of support for this pair since end of may. The region in blue has been very very strong in repelling price action upwards. Price Action is choosing to go around this region instead of through it, but it also needs quite a bit of momentum to break through the south pole of the red circle. This momentum is not here yet, So a strong rebound can be expected from 4070 region. For now its best to wait till 4070 is reached. You can short this pair until 4060-4070 region, but its a high risk move. Better to wait and see what happens at 4070

M5
Motion is approaching a increased support zone on the blue circle, a false break of this region is permitted that can be caught within the perimeter of the red circle, but a rebound is expected after that. Going short or long at the current price is too risky
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily.jpg Size: 149 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 152 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.JPG Size: 78 KB
  • #443
  • Jun 27, 2011 5:00am Jun 27, 2011 5:00am
H1
Given that the region of 4100, where the blue circle is located gave stiff resistance to going downwards, the EUR is targeting the boundaries of the green circle. The South Pole of this circle, if broken will push this pair fast and hard to the 4500 region.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 111 KB
  • #444
  • Jun 27, 2011 7:30am Jun 27, 2011 7:30am
4270 could be reached if the floor of 4190 remains intact
Here is the view...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #445
  • Jun 27, 2011 7:37am Jun 27, 2011 7:37am
4170-4180 being the last place that will be the border between a bearish and bullish scenario...


Quoting Kambooj
4270 could be reached if the floor of 4190 remains intact
Here is the view...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 84 KB
  • #446
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:18am Jun 27, 2011 8:18am
Quoting Kambooj
4170-4180 being the last place that will be the border between a bearish and bullish scenario...

Looks like it may want to go down and hit the .4140 (small black circle)
  • #447
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:25am Jun 27, 2011 8:25am
Yes, I agree
Looks like that way.
Quoting TraderFitz
Looks like it may want to go down and hit the .4140 (small black circle)
  • #448
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:34am Jun 27, 2011 8:34am
If the break of the dotted black line is a false break, within 10-12 pips, then we can shoot up again to 4230.

Seems we are in a wild goose chase here.

Quoting TraderFitz
Looks like it may want to go down and hit the .4140 (small black circle)
  • #449
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:43am Jun 27, 2011 8:43am
Which at the moment this is what is looking its happening.
Quoting Kambooj
If the break of the dotted black line is a false break, within 10-12 pips, then we can shoot up again to 4230.

Seems we are in a wild goose chase here.
  • #450
  • Jun 27, 2011 8:50am Jun 27, 2011 8:50am
This is a different set of lines which held their stance for the upward thrust to resume...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #451
  • Jun 27, 2011 9:13am Jun 27, 2011 9:13am
This is a very probable scenario for the EUR/USD if it breaks 4270
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 75 KB
  • #452
  • Jun 27, 2011 9:32am Jun 27, 2011 9:32am
Quoting Kambooj
This is a very probable scenario for the EUR/USD if it breaks 4270


So, I am really trying to test the opposite direction as the 10:15 - 12:00EST. How does this uptrust play into that?
  • #453
  • Edited 9:49am Jun 27, 2011 9:33am | Edited 9:49am
This is a phenomenon that I have observed few times, but its slowly showing the same characteristics, and that is small circles which kind of act like a powerfull energy center and defend the boundary of a bigger circle. The entire northern hemisphere or the entire southern hemisphere of such circles act as very strong support or resistances. A example of this situation is the blue circle in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4728564

and the red circle on M5 in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post4647758

These circles can sustain very hard blows and can also generate very strong thrusts.

The reason that I havent included these types of circles in my tutorial posts was that because I wasnt quite sure of their common characteristics, but now I am much more certain to say that once you see one of these smaller circles it means a strong defense is laid out in that region.

I have never seen these circles to be large ones, they are smaller circles that happen on the boundary of a larger ones.

Once a thrust gets generated from one of these circles it can go very far.

These circles dont happen in a nice smooth trend, they are often seen in places where a reversal is to happen, and there has been numerous hard bounces going back and forth between 2 bigger circles.

Hopefully I can give more descriptions of these types of circles in the future which would help to reinforce certain regions of price where a strong defense is put in place.
  • #454
  • Jun 27, 2011 9:39am Jun 27, 2011 9:39am
Quoting TraderFitz
So, I am really trying to test the opposite direction as the 10:15 - 12:00EST. How does this uptrust play into that?


To clarify. On the 1HR chart. If the bottom of the at .4285 holds then a sell there would follow the trade in the opposite direction style. If not then that will not appear to work for today as the drive upwards will continue. Do you agree?
  • #455
  • Jun 27, 2011 9:43am Jun 27, 2011 9:43am
No, not right now.

I suspect this thing is going further and hammering through that green circle, ending up at 4340 region.

The basic reason is the smaller blue circle that generated a massive thrust on the H1 chart here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4728564

So the 10:30-12:00 reversal will be delayed till around 12:00

Thats what I suspect.


Quoting TraderFitz
To clarify. On the 1HR chart. If the bottom of the at .4285 holds then a sell there would follow the trade in the opposite direction style. If not then that will not appear to work for today as the drive upwards will continue. Do you agree?
  • #456
  • Jun 27, 2011 9:44am Jun 27, 2011 9:44am
The thrust out of that small blue circle, is not something that will bounce down from the first bubble it hits. They do generate quite a powerfull thrust and is meant to pierce through tough armor.


Quoting Kambooj
No, not right now.

I suspect this thing is going further and hammering through that green circle, ending up at 4340 region.

The basic reason is the smaller blue circle that generated a massive thrust on the H1 chart here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post4728564

So the 10:30-12:00 reversal will be delayed till around 12:00

Thats what I suspect.
  • #457
  • Jun 27, 2011 10:33am Jun 27, 2011 10:33am
It might even be delayed further around 2:30-3:30 PM EST.

But up to you if you want to short it now, or wait.

Quoting TraderFitz
So, I am really trying to test the opposite direction as the 10:15 - 12:00EST. How does this uptrust play into that?
  • #458
  • Jun 27, 2011 10:37am Jun 27, 2011 10:37am
Quoting Kambooj
It might even be delayed further around 2:30-3:30 PM EST.

But up to you if you want to short it now, or wait.

I shorted at .4283. I always do 3 trades and TP at 10, 20 and 30 PIPs. I got my 10 and I am close to 20.
  • #459
  • Jun 27, 2011 11:55am Jun 27, 2011 11:55am
Right now price is not bouncing off the blue circle very much, the way it did at 4304 on June 24th. A possibl break could take us to the 4340 region, There are not any major levels between 4270 and 4250 that could be considered a support level, and behaviour is not showing any signs of a big retracement.

We will have to see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #460
  • Jun 27, 2011 12:02pm Jun 27, 2011 12:02pm
Quoting TraderFitz
I shorted at .4283. I always do 3 trades and TP at 10, 20 and 30 PIPs. I got my 10 and I am close to 20.

Got my 10 and 20 sell. Moved SL to BE we will see if I get another 10 for my 30.
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