Circular Trendlines | Page 16 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Circular Trend-Waves 414 replies

How do I change the color of trendlines? 2 replies

Too many drawn Trendlines all same look: how to draw Trendlines with different look? 2 replies

Recommend an ebook on trendlines.... 10 replies

Short trendlines 7 replies

Attachments: Circular Trendlines
Exit Attachments

Circular Trendlines

  • #301
  • Jun 21, 2011 11:04am Jun 21, 2011 11:04am
The recent activity of the EUR and its inability to sustain several trendline breaks, will only allow those trendlines to increase in strength and push the currency more down. The break downwards should be quite severe to push the EUR past the 4300 zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #302
  • Jun 21, 2011 11:38am Jun 21, 2011 11:38am
Try sell positions with a rather large stoploss for a target of 4200

A possible rewind to dip lower is becoming a stronger possibility as time goes on and behaviour on lower time frame is suggesting a strong wave downward is going to start soon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #303
  • Jun 21, 2011 12:50pm Jun 21, 2011 12:50pm
Quoting Kambooj
Try sell positions with a rather large stoploss for a target of 4200

A possible rewind to dip lower is becoming a stronger possibility as time goes on and behaviour on lower time frame is suggesting a strong wave downward is going to start soon

It looks like to get to the middle of the black circle that it will have to break through the north pole of the black circle. Is there information in the existing trend that will lead to that conclusion?
  • #304
  • Jun 21, 2011 1:06pm Jun 21, 2011 1:06pm
No there is no information in the existing trend that will point to more downward momentum. There is only behavioural patterns through observation on the sustenance of the resistance levels that I am making this conclusion

The observations are as follows:

1. The first High was at 4383, on the first attempt of the pair, then another one at 4376 and next one at 4390 and last at 4421, but none of the attempts made a decisive break upwards. This is suggesting resistance around 4390-4420 is quite strong.

2. The region of the blue circle where the motion is trying to break in the above diagram is close to the pole, but still not weak to allow penetration upward, so the outer perimeter of the blue circle is still strong.

3. Circles do get broken through the pole, but ususally to do this motion has to rewind and drop strongly. This is congruent with the behaviour exhibited.

4. The jaggedness of motion on the lower time frames, specially M1 is indicative of a trend starting to loose momentum. The only way that a stronger upward movement can occur is for the pair to come down to a support level and bounce off it. The first support level is 4300, but on the same token the more time that this pair spends in 4410-4380 territory the more potential energy it is trying to gather to force its intention through either circle. At the moment the lower black circle has only been tested 2 times and the upper blue circle has been tested 4 times. There is one more test of the lower black circle coming up soon.


Quoting TraderFitz
It looks like to get to the middle of the black circle that it will have to break through the north pole of the black circle. Is there information in the existing trend that will lead to that conclusion?
  • #305
  • Jun 21, 2011 1:11pm Jun 21, 2011 1:11pm
Price always chooses path of least resistance. If breaking through the black circle and going downwards offers less resistance than spending time around the blue circle and making haphazard attempts to break it,

Then

Price will choose to go through the path of least resistance downwards.

Doesnt matter how long does it take to come up again and retest 4400

Quoting TraderFitz
It looks like to get to the middle of the black circle that it will have to break through the north pole of the black circle. Is there information in the existing trend that will lead to that conclusion?
  • #306
  • Jun 21, 2011 1:16pm Jun 21, 2011 1:16pm
Quoting Kambooj
No there is no information in the existing trend that will point to more downward momentum. There is only behavioural patterns through observation on the sustenance of the resistance levels that I am making this conclusion

The observations are as follows:

1. The first High was at 4383, on the first attempt of the pair, then another one at 4376 and next one at 4390 and last at 4421, but none of the attempts made a decisive break upwards. This is suggesting resistance around 4390-4420 is quite strong.

2. The region of the blue circle where...
Hello
Just back home.
The problem not 1.44xx or 1.45 "there is chance to break 1.45!!!"
The trend on my daily and 4h Reversing to UP But the thing i don't really understand weekly which is bearish!
I will b watching PA only till i get nice set up or got what i miss here
  • #307
  • Jun 21, 2011 1:31pm Jun 21, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting Kambooj
No there is no information in the existing trend that will point to more downward momentum. There is only behavioural patterns through observation on the sustenance of the resistance levels that I am making this conclusion

The observations are as follows:

1. The first High was at 4383, on the first attempt of the pair, then another one at 4376 and next one at 4390 and last at 4421, but none of the attempts made a decisive break upwards. This is suggesting resistance around 4390-4420 is quite strong.

2. The region of the blue circle...


Thank you. Wonderful insight, as usual.
  • #308
  • Jun 21, 2011 1:43pm Jun 21, 2011 1:43pm
I just finish what i read on my chart but need someone know EW to discuss about, Do u know EW?
  • #309
  • Jun 21, 2011 1:58pm Jun 21, 2011 1:58pm
Yes I know
What is it. Can you post your chart?
Quoting egkid
I just finish what i read on my chart but need someone know EW to discuss about, Do u know EW?
  • #310
  • Jun 21, 2011 2:42pm Jun 21, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting Kambooj
Yes I know
What is it. Can you post your chart?
My positions from 1.4630 1.45 .1.44 ,1.43 stopped out [email protected] the problem daily and 4h start to b bullish while weekly bearish!!
We lose bearish on daily and 4h!!

Anyway I'm flat now and i made my analysis TRY to find what's going on!
Looking forward to nice discussion as u all know i use only Basic of EW and most of my view depends on other tool.

Here it's my chart , waiting to know your opinions
We had double top then double bottom and going to making W pattern soon Which is my EW count ii almost@ 61.8 fib


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 333.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #311
  • Jun 21, 2011 3:12pm Jun 21, 2011 3:12pm
Here You Go..

Quoting egkid
My positions from 1.4630 1.45 .1.44 ,1.43 stopped out [email protected] the problem daily and 4h start to b bullish while weekly bearish!!
We lose bearish on daily and 4h!!

Anyway I'm flat now and i made my analysis TRY to find what's going on!
Looking forward to nice discussion as u all know i use only Basic of EW and most of my view depends on other tool.

Here it's my chart , waiting to know your opinions
We had double top then double bottom and going to making W pattern soon Which is my EW count ii almost@ 61.8 fib


Attachment ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 333.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #312
  • Jun 21, 2011 3:36pm Jun 21, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting Kambooj
Here You Go..
If we are talking about E/U Then we must look to US Index
Here it's Clear set up , we have M shape , we have double strong bottom
and July 2008 low close#73 which we Hit already
Do u think after all of this Index will drop? If so then it's gambling not trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dx7.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #313
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:11pm Jun 21, 2011 7:11pm
Can you make a circle with mt4,
I seem to be able only to make eclipse , I have read the thread
and check my settings as what was posted at the beginning.
I am just looking for some confirmation if you can make circles with mt4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurousd.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #314
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:16pm Jun 21, 2011 7:16pm
But double bottoms denote reversals..
I will check usdx tonight and do a posting on that later in the night

Thanks for pointing out

Quoting egkid
If we are talking about E/U Then we must look to US Index
Here it's Clear set up , we have M shape , we have double strong bottom
and July 2008 low close#73 which we Hit already
Do u think after all of this Index will drop? If so then it's gambling not trading
  • #315
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:17pm Jun 21, 2011 7:17pm
Yes you can,
but you have to play with the scale settings all the time, and you need a separate window for each time frame and you dont have the copy tool so everytime you have to go and redraw circle, while with netdania is very fast and you have the copy tool too.

Quoting toddanderson
Can you make a circle with mt4,
I seem to be able only to make eclipse , I have read the thread
and check my settings as what was posted at the beginning.
I am just looking for some confirmation if you can make circles with mt4
  • #316
  • Jun 21, 2011 9:47pm Jun 21, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting Kambooj
Yes you can,
but you have to play with the scale settings all the time, and you need a separate window for each time frame and you dont have the copy tool so everytime you have to go and redraw circle, while with netdania is very fast and you have the copy tool too.
How can we be sure that it is a circle, meaning the diameter is equal from all angles, it may be an elipse that looks very close to a circle.
  • #317
  • Jun 21, 2011 10:23pm Jun 21, 2011 10:23pm
Thats true,
The best you can do is to make it as close to a circle that you can, and thats done by judging it visually.

Unless somebody has written a control which makes a perfect circle.

Quoting DaveXXXX
How can we be sure that it is a circle, meaning the diameter is equal from all angles, it may be an elipse that looks very close to a circle.
  • #318
  • Jun 21, 2011 11:44pm Jun 21, 2011 11:44pm
overall My Intake of the US Dollar index is that it is in a very agitated zone for the next 2 months with only 1 more touch to the 72 or 71 region and then it wil slowly turn around. This is my analysis:

Weekly
Motion has very little room to go further downwards, and sooner or later it will turn around and surpass the 80 region. Primary reason is that on the weekly time frame much stronger force is needed to penetrate through the south pole of the red circle shown and this force is missing

Daily
The situation on the daily chart is much more convulted than any time frame. It speaks of a lot of agitation between 76 and 72 zones, which will finally result in a thrust upwards toward the 80 and 81 region

H4
The complication that is felt from several intersecting circles on this time frame suggests a highly volatile environment where large bounces will be seen and 85-95% retracements will be typical in the months to come. Very Ragnebound environment to be trading for a while


Quoting egkid
If we are talking about E/U Then we must look to US Index
Here it's Clear set up , we have M shape , we have double strong bottom
and July 2008 low close#73 which we Hit already
Do u think after all of this Index will drop? If so then it's gambling not trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX_Weekly.jpg Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX_Daily.jpg Size: 189 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX_H4.jpg Size: 207 KB
  • #319
  • Jun 22, 2011 8:42am Jun 22, 2011 8:42am
The EUR/USD has equal probability to dip to 4267 and also go up to 4516. Use pending orders outside the ranges given in the chart below to trade this market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #320
  • Jun 22, 2011 9:10am Jun 22, 2011 9:10am
First day of Summer was yesterday June 21st, and markets usually become very unpredictable during June, July, and August. I guess the kids are out of school and a lot of traders in the big banks like to take summer vacation. So you would notice that no strong trend rarely start in June and July. The big moves usually start from the end of august till mid december and mid January till Mid may.

The one phenomenon that becomes increasingly strong, is wipsaw action, and different opinions and the thought that some trend is going to change, while in actuality nothing really changes, for couple of months, and the one that you thought it is changing will switch and do a 95% retracement the week after.

People get caught up in this frenzy and by the time that end of august comes they dont have the money necessary to get on the real band wagon and make money.

So how do you trade such a choppy markets

First, is that dont expect 70-100 pip SMOOTH moves, get out after you are profitable for 25-30 pips.

Second, the oversold and overbought indicators, such as the RSI are one of the best ways to get additional confirmation along with other forms of analysis to get a good entry. Make judgement on the higher timeframes such as M30, H1 or H4

Third, use smaller lots, it helps to stay more relaxed.

Best Wishes and Happy Trading
1 trader viewing now