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Circular Trend-Waves 414 replies

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Circular Trendlines

  • #281
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:15pm Jun 20, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting Kambooj
Good Question, I was looking for a line that had pushed currency down on M5 and was a action reaction line. The best one that I could see was that red line. The first 3 touches at 4220 were obvious spot to choose the curve, and I was considering the other spot to be the spike at 4290, but it wasnt exactly fitting well, and I figured the spike at 4290 could be classified as a false break of red trendline.

The other thing that I noted was that in the Impulse that I had shown wave 1 is 57 pips, ususally wave 5 and wave 1 relate to each other by...

ok, so it sounds like a combo of circle trends and elliott waves (which I am not familiar with). I may be in over my head.
  • #282
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:20pm Jun 20, 2011 1:20pm
The elliot wave helps but its not necessary, what is important is that the price is hanging at 4300.

This behaviour is not what happens when reversal takes place. It ususally is a spike of some sort, or the last wave spikes and then a big drop happens. This phenomenon happens in about a good 75% of the cases, and it didnt happen now.

The spike to 4328 and down to 4301 was something like what I would consider a reversal, but price came back and it stuck there, so I would presume 4328 was not the high high that we are looking for a reversal.


Quoting TraderFitz
ok, so it sounds like a combo of circle trends and elliott waves (which I am not familiar with). I may be in over my head.
  • #283
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:25pm Jun 20, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Kambooj
The elliot wave helps but its not necessary, what is important is that the price is hanging at 4300.

This behaviour is not what happens when reversal takes place. It ususally is a spike of some sort, or the last wave spikes and then a big drop happens. This phenomenon happens in about a good 75% of the cases, and it didnt happen now.

The spike to 4328 and down to 4301 was something like what I would consider a reversal, but price came back and it stuck there, so I would presume 4328 was not the high high that we are looking for a reversal....


I appreciate your insight and help. I will continue to go back and read past posts and try to wrap my mind around this. Especially, in the area of "inside" circles and where to draw them and what the results mean.
  • #284
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:37pm Jun 20, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting TraderFitz
I appreciate your insight and help. I will continue to go back and read past posts and try to wrap my mind around this. Especially, in the area of "inside" circles and where to draw them and what the results mean.


That raises another question You have mentioned looking at all timelines and drawing circles for all of the timelines. I was under the impression that you find a timeline to track and then use a lower timeline to fine tune trades. Would keeping track of all timelines creat to much "noise". I mean there will always be a line your running into then.
  • #285
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:54pm Jun 20, 2011 1:54pm
Yes, I do find a timeline to track, and then I know the direction on that timeframe is not going to change for the next 4-6 hours, because when I monitor activity on that particular one, lets say its H1. I keep asking myself:

1. Is the curve that I am monitoring a strong curve?
2. Has price hit it before and bounced back? If yes, then the motion has to eventually reach that level sooner or later.
3. Which area its targeting to hit the curve?
4. Is it a strong area or weak area?
5. If there is a false break or a break, then which curve is the next one?

Then I go on lower time frames, and this is where is most confusing

So to clear some confusion, the main analysis should be done around the openning of the EUR and close of the EUR session. They would tell you which trendlines are authentic and which ones are not

Once you know whats going on the higher time frames, it would not create that much of a confusion there, because trendlines do not have to change that often.

On the M1 is where you get the most experience, and once you do get the experience then the same formations on M1 will be repeated time and time again on other ones.

Quoting TraderFitz
That raises another question You have mentioned looking at all timelines and drawing circles for all of the timelines. I was under the impression that you find a timeline to track and then use a lower timeline to fine tune trades. Would keeping track of all timelines creat to much "noise". I mean there will always be a line your running into then.
  • #286
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:06pm Jun 20, 2011 2:06pm
Whats also is important that I follow, and its my golden rule for trendline analysis,

Be it pitch fork or this one, doesnt matter, is that:

Motion will never stop in between 2 trendlines and reverse. Never Ever.

Now a lot of people disagree, but for my own purpose, the way I think of this is that:

If motion is stopping and hanging around a zone, and hasnt been touching any trendlines or it has touched a trendline and reversed, but the reversal is not completely evident, then It has not reached the one line that it needs to reach to reverse.

This is what I call hanging in the middle of 2 trendlines.

If i am profitable on a trade at that level, I exit immediately at that point and stay out and redo my analysis to see what I missed.


Quoting TraderFitz
That raises another question You have mentioned looking at all timelines and drawing circles for all of the timelines. I was under the impression that you find a timeline to track and then use a lower timeline to fine tune trades. Would keeping track of all timelines creat to much "noise". I mean there will always be a line your running into then.
  • #287
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:16pm Jun 20, 2011 2:16pm
On the same note, this reminds me of another thing:

You should always ask yourself, when putting a trade:

Is the trade that I am entering in a Sell Zone or a Buy Zone, depending on what you want to do.

If you cant find a Sell Zone at the spot that you want to sell, then dont put your trade in, just hold off for a while, and look around to see where are the sell zones on that time frame or one higher.

If the pair is moving into a sell zone, but its not reacting the way it should, it might still be wanting to go a bit higher in the same zone, before it makes a reaction downward, or the spot you are trying to sell is not the real zone that price wants to react from there.




Quoting Kambooj
Whats also is important that I follow, and its my golden rule for trendline analysis,

Be it pitch fork or this one, doesnt matter, is that:

Motion will never stop in between 2 trendlines and reverse. Never Ever.

Now a lot of people disagree, but for my own purpose, the way I think of this is that:

If motion is stopping and hanging around a zone, and hasnt been touching any trendlines or it has touched a trendline and reversed, but the reversal is not completely evident, then It has not reached the one line that it needs to reach to reverse....
  • #288
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:18pm Jun 20, 2011 2:18pm
Quoting Kambooj
On the same note, this reminds me of another thing:

You should always ask yourself, when putting a trade:

Is the trade that I am entering in a Sell Zone or a Buy Zone, depending on what you want to do.

If you cant find a Sell Zone at the spot that you want to sell, then dont put your trade in, just hold off for a while, and look around to see where are the sell zones on that time frame or one higher.

If the pair is moving into a sell zone, but its not reacting the way it should, it might still be wanting to go a bit higher in the...


As always outstanding information. Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions.
  • #289
  • Jun 20, 2011 2:49pm Jun 20, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting Kambooj
My conclusion

Long to 4750

Your conclusion is from post #18

Why would the blue circle be broken when it had held up several times before making it a "stronger" circle? I am not trying to be a pest just trying to learn.
  • #290
  • Jun 20, 2011 3:02pm Jun 20, 2011 3:02pm
The reason is that once motion got inside the red circle, it was continuing to get pushed higher and the weak area of the red circle was not yet reached so that it downgrades the momentum of the price action and slows it down.

So I presumed that the currency has one last push to go through and it will break the blue circle in order for price to weaken, but I was wrong and had to pay closer attention to the details.

I also noticed a shift in the bubbles as they were being drawn across the lower points towards a 90 degree angle, and that is also one of the observations that I make when motion tries to accelerate, but the blue bubble held its stance quite well and didnt go higer.

But my main mistake was that I ignored the fact that the motion is at the North Pole of the blue circle and it could reverse right over there. I was paying more attention to it weakening as it gets close to the weak area of the red circle.
Quoting TraderFitz
Your conclusion is from post #18

Why would the blue circle be broken when it had held up several times before making it a "stronger" circle? I am not trying to be a pest just trying to learn.
  • #291
  • Edited 3:17pm Jun 20, 2011 3:07pm | Edited 3:17pm
Continuing on the Previous Post,

Right now I am in the same situation too:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post4708175

The big black circle which rebounded the motion at 4496 is the one that I am hoping price action will hit there. Its also close to the center of the red circle too, increases the odds

and since penetration has happened from the south pole of the red circle, I dont believe that it will stop where it is. It will stop very close to the center of the red circle and then reverse. Thats why I cashed out of my positions this morning at 4319.

Waiting to see what happens.

Quoting TraderFitz
Your conclusion is from post #18

Why would the blue circle be broken when it had held up several times before making it a "stronger" circle? I am not trying to be a pest just trying to learn.
  • #292
  • Jun 20, 2011 6:23pm Jun 20, 2011 6:23pm
At the moment I can only see this thing going few more pips around 4360 at the max. Dont want to post any charts yet, but if it goes beyond that on the hourly chart there is resistance curves at 4450-80 zone. But nothing is confirmed yet.
  • #293
  • Jun 20, 2011 6:26pm Jun 20, 2011 6:26pm
In continuation of the previous post

The motion has the probability of pass through the center of the red circle in the following post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post4708175

to the other perimeter of it, which is approximately 4463.

This is only if we dont get a strong rebound off 4356. The Openning of the EUR session should help clear the situation.


Quoting Kambooj
At the moment I can only see this thing going few more pips around 4360 at the max. Dont want to post any charts yet, but if it goes beyond that on the hourly chart there is resistance curves at 4450-80 zone. But nothing is confirmed yet.
  • #294
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:25pm Jun 20, 2011 8:25pm
Quoting egkid
I'M IN [email protected] MY target as next stop for this week 1.3920
Please guys remember everyone trade depends on his own chart and MM
so follow only ur own chart
closed now@ 1.4350
and all other positions from 1.4630
  • #295
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:26pm Jun 20, 2011 8:26pm
H1
Resistance is forming on the outside of the red curve. If by the openning of the EUR session 4300 is not seen, we are going upwards to 4450 where the black curve Resides. For now the Sell sentiment remains firm due to the rebound being experienced from 4380 region

M15
So far behaviour is congruent with a Sell scenario. if the center of the red circle remains intact and doesnt get further penetrated toward the north pole of the circle we are in the early stages of a sellout going further down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 122 KB
  • #296
  • Jun 20, 2011 8:36pm Jun 20, 2011 8:36pm
Another view of the same situation...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #297
  • Jun 20, 2011 11:34pm Jun 20, 2011 11:34pm
Quoting Kambooj
H1
Resistance is forming on the outside of the red curve. If by the openning of the EUR session 4300 is not seen, we are going upwards to 4450 where the black curve Resides. For now the Sell sentiment remains firm due to the rebound being experienced from 4380 region

M15
So far behaviour is congruent with a Sell scenario. if the center of the red circle remains intact and doesnt get further penetrated toward the north pole of the circle we are in the early stages of a sellout going further down.
If it does get up there, I have 4480 as a pretty good strength resistance level. There are other levels before that also but this seems to me as the strongest.
Also, I have a question for you Kambooj. When you draw the circles I notice some points don't exactly touch the curves for example a point or two pierce the circle a bit. So in this case, another person may have their circle slightly shifted to one side as compared with yours or they may have a circle with a larger or smaller diameter as yours. This would effect the price levels for a bounce or continuation should happen. How do you account for this?
  • #298
  • Jun 21, 2011 6:55am Jun 21, 2011 6:55am
Yes 4480 is a very strong resistance level the way I see it too

In regards to drawing the circles when points dont exactly touch certain price levels you can only play with the diameter to get the best fit. As motion comes close to that level, you have 2 choices:

First one is to go to lower time frames and see whether you can do the analysis and be a bit more exact

Secondly, suppose that the motion does a false break of the circle on the same time, but is not the exact price that you first thought, then you either have to see whether the original curve that you drew could have included a different point or shift it a bit, or better than that is to use straight trendlines to catch false breaks of the circles or use circles to catch the false break of straight trendlines.

Quoting DaveXXXX
If it does get up there, I have 4480 as a pretty good strength resistance level. There are other levels before that also but this seems to me as the strongest.
Also, I have a question for you Kambooj. When you draw the circles I notice some points don't exactly touch the curves for example a point or two pierce the circle a bit. So in this case, another person may have their circle slightly shifted to one side as compared with yours or they may have a circle with a larger or smaller diameter as yours. This would effect the price levels for a bounce...
  • #299
  • Jun 21, 2011 9:10am Jun 21, 2011 9:10am
The EUR is not in a good trading position, there are equal probability of upward and downward motion, and the expanding area shown is not the best trading environment setups that there is.

For now we are range bound.

Sell with big stoploss at 4380 and buy at 4280-4300 zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #300
  • Jun 21, 2011 10:28am Jun 21, 2011 10:28am
EUR rangebound territory continues.

Best strategy is to stay out

OR

Sell with large stoploss and minimum lot size at 4385 region
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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