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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #1,781
  • Edited 9:32am Jun 20, 2011 9:03am | Edited 9:32am
@bdfxer...nice trades!!! I was up very late...got up to trade then went back to get some more rest only to wake up to this beauty. Had I been "in the zone" that would have been the long for EU. More trades to come...

@Xhale12...this chart should help answer some of your questions earlier about entries. Green arrow shows the long forming. The short green line gives a confirmation along the fork. Many different ways to enter using forks. Find repeatable high probability setups and low risk entries. Also...see how price broke through the blue line...that area of resistance...the swing highs? Bdfxer's chart also shows another entry using forks.

You should have done well on Gbp-Usd, right?

Take care,

FX4

P.S. The other long at the ML could probably have been taken viewing from M5 or M15.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,782
  • Jun 20, 2011 10:51am Jun 20, 2011 10:51am
Managed to scrape +10 pips out of this run. Not as low-risk of an entry as I would have liked, but saw some potential. Looks like it wants to keel over, but, until something shows that things have changed...well, you know...the bulls are on it at the moment.

FX4

P.S. Did a rescue on the sell off...entered again with a little larger position...scraping the bowl shall we say. Was also monitoring on M5.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euentry 6-20-11.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euentry 6-20-11-3.gif Size: 21 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,783
  • Jun 20, 2011 10:53am Jun 20, 2011 10:53am
I see another Resistance at 4316, out at 1.4318 Lets see what happens later...

done for the day ...
  • #1,784
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:17pm Jun 20, 2011 1:17pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Blue...that got me. Think price is hitting the white one...try drawing an SH...a sliding parallel off the candle that pierced the ML and see what price does with it. The fact that you are asking is a sign you have doubts. There is some obvious resistance that price would have to clear to go higher. Maybe you could look at a longer T/F to see what's happening there.

Well, let's see what I find to get in to this morning.

FX4
You are talking about the white dotted line correct? That is the 50% fib line of the blue pitchfork. I know that that seems to have become resistance. However what I am asking is, if the price seems to have found resistance there, and has failed to reach the median line of the blue pitchfork, is that not a sign of weakness?
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #1,785
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:23pm Jun 20, 2011 1:23pm
Quoting bdfxer
OK, entered at 4223 and t/p SET to 4330...

shall consider further longs if any later...

What caused you to enter both of these trades. It appears you went long just as price was about to hit the median line which does not make sense to me.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #1,786
  • Jun 20, 2011 1:28pm Jun 20, 2011 1:28pm
Would like some input on this trade of mine. I decided to short here because it appeared the U-MLH was confirmed as resistance. Should I have waited for price to take out the swing low?

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/4502/captureua.png
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #1,787
  • Edited 3:45pm Jun 20, 2011 3:02pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting Xhale12
You are talking about the white dotted line correct? That is the 50% fib line of the blue pitchfork. I know that that seems to have become resistance. However what I am asking is, if the price seems to have found resistance there, and has failed to reach the median line of the blue pitchfork, is that not a sign of weakness?
Hi Xhale12,

I think my confusion started when I misread the word "failing" for "falling". So, here is the original question:

What's your take on the price failing to reach the median line? Would you not hold a long position very long?

Price failing to reach the median line is a tell in and of itself. However, for the failure to be confirmed, price would need to go outside of the L-MLH (in your example) of the blue fork, then show signs of weakness for a sell. Otherwise, it can find buyers at the L-MLH and blast to the ML. There is a series of things I would probably look at and not just the fact that price did not reach the ML at that time. There are many cases where price got close, sold off some, then came back and touched the ML.

So, to answer your question, it would certainly make me cautious and very observant if price was struggling to get there. Whether or not I would hold the position would depend on what else the market had going on at that time that could help price get there...and whether or not I would want to wait for it. Reducing exposure couldn't hurt until the trader felt comfortable with what price was setting up to do next.

Sorry for the confusion earlier. Hope this answer helps.

FX4

P.S. Thanks for the clarity but I was clear about your 50% line. Know the tool you are using .
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,788
  • Edited 5:00pm Jun 20, 2011 3:22pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting Xhale12
Would like some input on this trade of mine. I decided to short here because it appeared the U-MLH was confirmed as resistance. Should I have waited for price to take out the swing low?

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/4502/captureua.png
Hi again,

Very similar problem I mentioned in a post to Moneydeep earlier. I myself need to keep an eye. If you look at the chart I attached, price has been making higher highs and higher lows. The green arrow shows price blowing through an area of resistance. You have drawn a counter-trending fork. You should always draw the fork first in the direction of the current trend. Also notice that price was hanging around the U-MLH and not really moving toward the ML. Do you see it? Once price broke through the U-MLH, especially with such a bullish candle, you should have been running for cover...but your mindset about the short probably didn't let you.

Things we all deal with...I've had my share so I am more on the look out now. Always let price dictate what we are to do and how we apply our tools. Would be nice to see what this would look like with an upward fork drawn instead. The long would probably have been screaming at you!!! Waiting for price to take out the swing low...if it did...would not have helped because you were on the wrong side of the market in your mind.

All the best and keep pressing,

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,789
  • Jun 20, 2011 9:22pm Jun 20, 2011 9:22pm
Quoting Xhale12
What caused you to enter both of these trades. It appears you went long just as price was about to hit the median line which does not make sense to me.
Please look into my charts. It got all the stories behind my entry.

Reason : Price first could not close below 4207 which is very close to round #, also it happens to be the 50% line of previous upswing. Also, it is the very near or close to the LML of my pitchfork of this corrective wave up...please study carefully and u'will see. Also on my 45m chart eur made a very small hammer and about close to previous downswing WL line. price is moving form WL TO WL and now price is at the next WL(warning line). Price also is moving from swing 50% to 50%(not always, depending on pf lines) in this case. ALSO, most important of all, price is making higher highs i.e. continuation of trend. also rsi is in continuation mode(not shown). Also 4h chart(could not post for time reason), had a hammerlike candle before that.

this is more then enough for me.

If you would like to learn PF please visit this thread,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=76597...study the charts and u shall see the reasons. Also download and learn to use a small indicator their in the thread AML...MQ4, that will help you map the markets with pf's and it's associated WL's AR's etc...

hope this helps and explains...
  • #1,790
  • Jun 20, 2011 9:27pm Jun 20, 2011 9:27pm
here check this chart,

price moving up from wl to wl and 50% to 50%(in a triangle very common).

I would hv longed again, but my ISP had a downtime...oh crap...there is always a next one...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-m20-210611-1.jpg Size: 137 KB
  • #1,791
  • Jun 20, 2011 10:00pm Jun 20, 2011 10:00pm
Here is some more zoomed in charts...so that u can see what markets upto.

added RSI check the weakness(RSI div.). But can't short, as markets making HH. will hv to see what price does at PRZ zone(4250 or beyond/38~61% retrace) and/or at current high at 4380..

In current situation(my view) if it's a larger correction to entire ABC down swing price should go to next WL and with or without a good correction. for now no trade until franky and london open. By then market would again let us know what the next move that it intends to deliver..

hope for the best...happy trading..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eur-m20-210611-2.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #1,792
  • Jun 20, 2011 10:57pm Jun 20, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hi Xhale12,

I think my confusion started when I misread the word "failing" for "falling". So, here is the original question:

What's your take on the price failing to reach the median line? Would you not hold a long position very long?

Price failing to reach the median line is a tell in and of itself. However, for the failure to be confirmed, price would need to go outside of the L-MLH (in your example) of the blue fork, then show signs of weakness for a sell. Otherwise, it can find buyers at the L-MLH and blast to the ML. There...
Thanks
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #1,793
  • Jun 20, 2011 11:14pm Jun 20, 2011 11:14pm
yea i got that eu long off the bottom pitchfork.
  • #1,794
  • Jun 21, 2011 5:13am Jun 21, 2011 5:13am
Things seem a bit choppy at the moment. Have to be out today. Wish you all good trading.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,795
  • Jun 21, 2011 5:26am Jun 21, 2011 5:26am
Hi,

I've opened trade on retouch of the orange U-ML.
Still learning on demo, but hope I understand the rules of drawing PFs.

Donna, I have watched your video and it gave me much more than seeing static pictures.

Regards,
Twisted

P.S. While writting this post price began to move upwards, let us see what happens next.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_m30_twisted.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #1,796
  • Jun 21, 2011 5:44am Jun 21, 2011 5:44am
Quoting Twisted
Hi,

While writting this post price began to move upwards, let us see what happens next.
OK, Stop was hit, now I see that I was trying to short into support zone around 114.8

I must learn to check everything you have written about.

Regards,

Twisted
  • #1,797
  • Edited 7:30am Jun 21, 2011 7:11am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting Twisted
Hi,

I've opened trade on retouch of the orange U-ML.
Still learning on demo, but hope I understand the rules of drawing PFs.

Donna, I have watched your video and it gave me much more than seeing static pictures.

Regards,
Twisted

P.S. While writting this post price began to move upwards, let us see what happens next.
Hi Twisted,

Take a look at Post 1788 above. You did the same thing as Xhale12 except in your case, the bulls were not as vicious .

Glad the video gave you a clearer understanding. Seems like you were up some pips. Your entry was not too bad, but do take a look at the post I mentioned.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,798
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:18am Jun 21, 2011 7:18am
Quoting moneydeep
yea i got that eu long off the bottom pitchfork.
Happy for you. Yea.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,799
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:19am Jun 21, 2011 7:19am
Quoting bdfxer
Here is some more zoomed in charts...so that u can see what markets upto.

added RSI check the weakness(RSI div.). But can't short, as markets making HH. will hv to see what price does at PRZ zone(4250 or beyond/38~61% retrace) and/or at current high at 4380..

In current situation(my view) if it's a larger correction to entire ABC down swing price should go to next WL and with or without a good correction. for now no trade until franky and london open. By then market would again let us know what the next move that it intends to deliver..

hope...
Serious chart surgery here Bdfxe4r . Sometimes it is needed depending on where price is in the flow of the market.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,800
  • Jun 21, 2011 7:37am Jun 21, 2011 7:37am
Quoting Twisted
OK, Stop was hit, now I see that I was trying to short into support zone around 114.8

I must learn to check everything you have written about.

Regards,

Twisted
There are certain locations to place stops to try to hide them from the market as the "Big Boys" are able to move price to trigger your stop. Your sell stop should have a chance if placed above a "wall" of resistance as the sellers there should act as a buffer so the market can't get to it. For a long trade, the stop would be below support.

However, the amount of the stop should be taken into account....relative to your money management approach.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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