Circular Trendlines

If that what ur chart tell u ok.
Everyone Trade depends on His own chart and MM (Itrade higher TF - medium to long term)
My chart say it will In next 90 min

Still hold my positions maybe this is not circle hope my friend forgive me but here it my plan
have [email protected] , 1.43 , 1.4315
If 4h close above my yellow line i will close some of y positions i still hold many from 1.4635 because as i said i trade longer term.

Final round and I Will Win unless Fate say something else
Now With all my power

With 4220 being broken, I had to check other scenarios to see whether this movement is going to be the one thats gonna go above 4500 or not. From my own wave structure analysis which I like to combine with the circles, but I dont post it usually, there is a high probability that the future movement is going to be contained within the boundaries of the Green, Blue and Red Circles. This implies that we are in the early stages of a contracting triangle.

One of the main characteristics of a Contracting Triangle is that Wave A of a contracting triangle is by far the most violent of all the 5 waves of the triangle, and it always gives the impression that a new trend is taking place and the old trend is reversing.

Nothing can be further from the truth in this case. The trend is not reversing and we are still good if we are short on the EUR. Except that stoplosses have to be extended beyond 4350-4360 zone. Also expect 80-90% retracements of all legs. This implies expect 80% retracement of the move from 4075 to wherever we are going up (max 4355)

Also since in this case the price territory of Wave 4 (currently Leg A of the presumed triangle) has infringed the price territory of Wave 2, there is also a possibility that Wave 5 will go beyond 3800, because this situation happens when the impulse wave, in this case a Terminal Impulse Wave, is a 5th Wave Extension. The size of wave 5 in these impulses is from the beginning of wave 1 till the end of wave 3, thats almost 700 pips.

The 5th wave extension impulse scenario is just one of the 2 possibilities of how this C wave will turn to be, but we are at least expecting another 400 pip drop. This 400 pip drop will happen from the vicinity of 4237, which is the 38.2 retracement of the drop from 4494 to 4075. This means that after legs a,b,c,d, and e of the triangle are done, leg e will end up finishing itself at 4237 and from that point 400 pips downwards leg C will finish and THEN and only THEN we are going for a MAJOR up move.

One thing about all triangles:

When they are finished people have lost a lot of money, but if you look at it from a bigger point of view when the triangle is done, is that, if you go small lots and give your order a good amount of stoploss, eventually you make money, because price retraces quite a bit or in the worst case you come at break even.

Wave A of a contracting triangle establishes the range of the movement. Wherever Wave A high ends up today, thats the high for up to middle of next week

The last surprise of the day will be at 4350 zone. This is a good sell opportunity for the rest of the comng week.


If 4350 turns out to be the high, expect a minimum 61.8 retracement of the move from 4075 to 4350 which is 4180 and a maximum retracement of 88.6-90% which is around 4100-4105 region.

hey bro you say that we are going now to 4350 ?

We might have a spike in that direction, but I dont see those levels sustaining themselves beyond a quick spike. Its coming down now anyways, so 4340 might have been it.

We are still going downwards for the moment, but a long term alternate possibility for a bullish scenario is presented, but for now there should not be any worries for anybody bearish on the EUR/USD

M1

Either a spike high or something of that nature will happen within the next half an hour or the openning of the Asian session that will hit 4340 and we will reverse after that

I agree.
I will include my quick analysis in a chart. I hope this doesn't distract anyone from the circle TL's, for me it adds to it.

Hello Kambooj, i just have one question regarding your statement about good sell opportunity for the rest of the coming week. In this case are you going to have your sell position open until end of the week and where the price ends there you close your position?

Thanks for information.

What can i say....
Let me explain why I'm very very surprising from your analysis

We never met and living at 2 far away countries AND each one of us use totally difference way for analysis BUT

90% our our analysis are identical For example the bold statement in above post and how many from all traders here in FF share The same view above with us! "Same point , same time, same view"!

U wrote>>"something of that nature will happen"
In my profile> law of natural 1.618


Both of use could b wrong but we did our home work and let the fate tell his word

I dont know if this is just me but, 4340 is not difficult to predict because you can expect that level could be the resistance since it is day's high.

I understand circles are like S/R lines or TL lines or channel lines, but I am not sure if looking at this way is better.

i have been following kamooj thread since it started also reading edkid's posts i am new trader but matching you both helped me a lot and really great peice of work,in combination saved my trades....thanks.

Pls kambooj if possible kindly increase frecuency of your posts i am sure lot of traders are following.

Regds

Happy to know that but remember always trade only your chart.

Here it's question from good trader and my view ,Thought to share it

I like your post , sound an experience trader
My comment about the bold paragraph above in ur post:
You are totally right and if there is something worry me it will b seeing many buyers for us$ now "It's a basic fact of life that many things 'everybody knows' turn out to be wrong."

But
Sometime market do exactly as we See and that is most hard part
For example
If XX/BB pair will go up and it go down that change our conscious to always believe market do the unexpected and now if e/u go as many seller see depends on your thought that will b something not usual we see "
" because Many traders learn that Market always do the unexpected"
Hope i was clear and u got what i mean.

But here it what MR/Jim roger believe
"He is One of very famous trader and co-founded the Quantum Fund with Georg sors"
June 18, 2011


Because everybody's bearish, including me. I read something like 97 percent of people are bearish on the dollar. I am one of those 97, so I bought dollars.

"The US economy will not recover until we accept reality, stop spending money we don't have, go down to a lower level, and start over."

At the end we do our home work and let the fate tell his word.

Egkid

I was expecting the price to make a spike and hit 4340 region, and it didnt.

What I meant to imply was that this coming level would be one of the best sell opportunities to take as far as the level of the rise of the movement from 4075 is concerned. So you are catching a good size wave at the place where the motion is getting exhausted.

Now you could keep the position open until 4100 is reached, and that could be by the end of the week, but given the scenario we have, price movement will have lots of retracements, so as long as I am getting a good 50-70 pips of profit I would exit the majority of my lots and sit back for another opportunity.

Basics of Circle Drawing

There are only 3 possibilities when drawing Circular Trendlines. The possibilities are:

1. Either the Circles dont intersect at all (3 Types)
2. There is about 10%-25% intersection between the 2 circles. (4 Types)
3. The majority of one circle is within the other one, sharing more than 25% of their space. They often form a half crescent moon shape. (4 Types)

These 3 possibilities are shown below in the 3 pictures labelled as "Possibility#1", "Possibility#2" and "Possibility#3"

Basics Of Circular Trendline Analysis

There are various approaches to analysis by circle, and everybody could use a different approach, but here are some of the basics:

There are 2 things to look for when trying to do trendline analysis using circles.

Firstly, look for curves that contain as many price points that line up on either the outside of the perimeter or the inside of the perimeter of the circle or both

AND

Secondly, look for circular zones where motion exhibits one or a combination of the following:

Motion comes from the perimeter to center of a circle
Motion comes from center to perimeter of a circle
Motion goes from perimeter to perimeter of a circle.

The above 3 points might not be very obvious at the beginning, specially when a motion is starting to take shape, also finding these zones are a bit more difficult and require some creative manipulation of the circles.

Drawing the Circles In the 2 Method Above

First Method:

Checking The Exterior Or Interior Boundary Of a Circle

1. First take any retracement, no matter how small it is and draw a circle around it. This is shown in Figure 1

2. Then draw circles around the outer edge of all movements. This is shown in Figure 2. This encapsulates the flow of price and makes it look as if a river is flowing through mountains and valleys.
This overall view shows places where price action is trying hard to congest and makes its way, and also areas where price action expands and has more space to move.

3. Draw circles across the flow of price, and not around the price, as in Figure 3.

One needs to experiment with both putting price action inside the boundary of the a circle or several circles, and also putting price action outside the boundary of these circles. The final look of the image will resemble something like in Figure 3. Your imagination is the limit on how many points you want to connect so that a picture of what the price wants to do becomes a bit clear.

Second Method:

Checking Zones that contain price action within a circle.

In The first method we were only concerned with the perimeter of the circle, inside or outside and then trying to adjust the radius so that we get as many points on a curve as possible. Especially Section 3 of Method 1.

In this approach our aim is to find a circle in such a way where a certain type of motion (corrective or impulsive) is approaching or goes through the center of the circle from one of its perimeters. This circle will show one or all of the charactersistics below:

- Motion going from perimeter to center and passing through the center to the other side of the periemeter of the circle

- Motion going from perimeter to center of the circle and bouncing in the opposite direction to the perimeter


- Motion going from Center To Perimeter and Perimeter to Center


The motion that starts from the perimeter, can start from the inside of the perimeter of the circle or from the outside. The motion that starts from the center of the circle going to its perimeter is a bit hard to find.

One of the ways to do this is to start with a circle and move it around and adjust the radius back and forth so that you can see eventually a zone where you see one or a combination of behaviours mentioned above.

To simplify this search, one of the things to look for in a chart is Impulse waves. Traditional method of trendline drawing forms a channel around these impulse waves and one might wonder if a motion goes so fast that is almost like a straight line with a 75-85 degree of attack, how could you draw circles around it.

The answer is you cant

So what you do is draw a complete circle in such a way that it encapsulates the whole impulse motion like in Figure 4. you can do the same thing with corrections as shown in Figure 4, but they are harder to find.

You have to experiment with adjusting the radius of the circle, and moving it constantly around to get a reasonable good fit.

After using both the methods above your charts will be full of circles, some of these circles dont make any sense, and cant draw any conclusion out of them, and they have to be deleted, and some will make sense and they need further enhancement, exploration and attention.

Analysis

Once the circles are drawn you have to gage 3 things:

1. The strength of each circle relative to others,

The strength of a circle is measured by observing 3 points:

A. How many times a motion bounces off its perimeter (interior or exterior)
B. The areas from which the bounce is occuring
The Poles of the circle are the strongest and the region close to East and West sides are the weakest.
C. The reaction of price when motion passes through or is closest to the center of the circle.

2. The bounce or break of the circle.

If a bounce occurs then it adds strength to that circle. If a break occurs then we are landing on the next strongest curve which could be a curve on the same or a different time frame. Attention has to be paid to which areas of the circle motion is choosing to approach to either bounce or break the circle. The following questions should always be kept in mind:

- Is it trying to break through the circle or bounce from it?

- Is the motion coming towards the poles of the circle or slightly off to the sides of the poles?
A break through poles takes considerable energy than the one that is coming slightly off to the sides of the poles

- Once the circle is broken, is it finding resistance towards its center or trying to speed up through it? On the same note, if motion is slowing down when it comes close to the center of the circle, is it trying to turn around or not?

3. The distance from which price is approaching the circle.

Does motion need to rewind a lot to break the chosen circle? or a short retracement will do the job. If a short retracement breaks the circle, how many times in the past price action has attempted to break the chosen circle

After that you look at the same 3 points on different time frame, you can make a fair judgement as to how much further a motion can go without facing major resistance or major support. If a motion has a lot of distance to travel to reach a major support/resistance of a higher time frame, then you know the direction will not change for a while, so you will be looking to go on trades in the same direction when motion weakens, and continue doing that until a major curve is reached.

Once motion is close to a major support/resistance curve, then you will quit putting trades in the same direction for a while, until signs of reversal happens or until the curve is broken and you can find an opportunity to get on the same direction for a bit more distance.

At such times you have to check all time frames from M1 to H4 and Daily to see how motion is reacting at the touch point on the curve. Sometimes you can catch a early reversal, but most of the time the trendline analysis will help you to make a decision to stay OUT of the market on such times, until clarity is established and you will be confident enough that you are in a safe trading environment

Good Luck
Best Wishes
Kambooj

Thanks,
Hope we will have 4340 as the high after the market opens, and we go for couple of days on a sell out freak so we can make a lot of pips.

Kambooj thank you so much for all of your time that you invest to gather all the information to help other traders. I think soon you will be making lots of money just from selling your autograph

I am very new here, but i tottally agree with Pip Maker and once again thank Kambooj for introducing new dimension circular trading I am trying to make some circles but reading them will take lot of time.

Thanks for the complements "PipMaker" and "Bayan":

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...97#post4705397
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post4705515

Hopefully we have more people using circles and adding to the articles on this thread on what they find using them.

Thanks Again
Kambooj