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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #1,741
  • Jun 14, 2011 9:05am Jun 14, 2011 9:05am
I shall check out the video when I get a minute. For now what I do is periodically delete all the forks I've drawn and redraw them - this seems to allow me to see things clearly again.

One question I do have is about dealing with spikes caused by news events. I find that if price moves a long way after a news release my forks no longer contain price. But redrawing them to accomodate the news seems somewhat distorted. What I do at the moment is wait a bit to see how price settles down before trying to draw a new fork.
  • #1,742
  • Jun 14, 2011 12:29pm Jun 14, 2011 12:29pm
Hello traders,

Got into a short on Usd-Cad...missed the big run earlier. Entry could have been a bit later...actual entry candle shown by red arrow. Price has since come back to test the L-MLH area. Also, Bernanke to speak in about 1 hour, so the market may be idling.

Someone emailed or PM'd and asked if I would give some explanation of the "why" behind the entry...

On this one, price was in a downtrend. It gave a bounce and seemed to be hitting resistance at the red L-MLHs...(almost traded the bounce, but thought I would look for an entry to go down).

Not alot going on...up around 2 pips. Will see if it continues down as there is a support area on the H4 where the bounce began.

Second chart shows where price is now..up about 6 pips...not expecting too much unless the H4 support gives way.

FX4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd-cad june 14-11.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usd-cad june 14-11-2.gif Size: 21 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,743
  • Edited 12:59pm Jun 14, 2011 12:34pm | Edited 12:59pm
Quoting Bartlby
I shall check out the video when I get a minute. For now what I do is periodically delete all the forks I've drawn and redraw them - this seems to allow me to see things clearly again.

One question I do have is about dealing with spikes caused by news events. I find that if price moves a long way after a news release my forks no longer contain price. But redrawing them to accomodate the news seems somewhat distorted. What I do at the moment is wait a bit to see how price settles down before trying to draw a new fork.
Good idea to start with a fresh view.

Regarding spikes from news events...do you use Warning Lines (WLs)? If your original fork had a good frequency with price, the WLs should give a heads-up even with news spikes. Also, news many times would drive the price ultimately to where it was "intending" to go. The initial "pop" or move might just clear some stops or give the market a better entry price. Try to pay attention and think through what the market is trying to accomplish: back to the zero-sum "game".

Let me know how it works.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,744
  • Jun 14, 2011 12:50pm Jun 14, 2011 12:50pm
Just closed the Usd-Cad trade (few +pips) as it began bouncing off the H4 support and now we have just about 40 minutes before Bernanke speaks. Think I will take a break and see how things play out.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,745
  • Edited Jun 15, 2011 7:12am Jun 14, 2011 9:35pm | Edited Jun 15, 2011 7:12am
Quoting Bartlby

One question I do have is about dealing with spikes caused by news events. I find that if price moves a long way after a news release my forks no longer contain price. But redrawing them to accomodate the news seems somewhat distorted. What I do at the moment is wait a bit to see how price settles down before trying to draw a new fork.
Here is an example of a chart where news hit the Nzd-Usd tonight. Notice how the WL caught price (blue arrow)? Actually traded the pop (green arrow)...an interesting trading "experiment" LOL...a few more + pips. Reason for entering: a momentum play.

FX4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,746
  • Edited 10:18am Jun 15, 2011 9:53am | Edited 10:18am
Got long on Eur-Gbp and managed to send a signal. Came to within 4 pips of my anticipated entry price. Now this is where it gets tricky...price is at the ML....would it blow past or should I bank my profits?

REASON: I entered because of the support along the L-MLH especially on H1. Green arrow shows the entry candle.

Hmm.... thinking it may go higher.

Decisions...will keep an objective eye.

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp june 15-11-2.gif Size: 27 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,747
  • Jun 15, 2011 11:27am Jun 15, 2011 11:27am
Well... price gave a pop past the ML then tanked...downtrend continued. Will post the final outcome later. Might be interesting .


FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,748
  • Edited 8:44pm Jun 16, 2011 10:03am | Edited 8:44pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Well... price gave a pop past the ML then tanked...downtrend continued. Will post the final outcome later. Might be interesting .


FX4
Now for the outcome...

Notice how price had taken out the lows (support areas) shown by the blue lines? A tell that maybe price could be trending down some more. The second line was taken out, but with some bullish candles. Didn't spot the first one: the break of support there. Thought on the second there could be a decent move up. Green arrow shows the candle I entered on. Was up about 17 pips...a counter-trending profit. Had thought it would give more of an upward move. Got whacked. Eurozone activities yesterday didn't help either with the long. If price goes to my intended target today....well....

FX4

P.S. Added the entry chart here.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp june 15-11.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp 6-15-11.gif Size: 27 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,749
  • Edited 2:19pm Jun 16, 2011 10:12am | Edited 2:19pm
Well, some may be wondering what happened to my trade. Well, I didn't take the profit, and proceeded to let price do its thing. Gave me a great opportunity to use a loss recovery/risk management method I'm working on (or I should say "with"). One more attempt (application of the method) and I would have come away with more than my initial price target (without price even getting there), but I stopped. Did recover over 80% of the "loss" during the trade...all in a day's learning .

Some things I learned about actively managing risk were invaluable. Can't learn those things from TA or stops. Just another approach to preserving the book .

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,750
  • Jun 17, 2011 5:02am Jun 17, 2011 5:02am
What a nice thread...pitchfork and the ML is my system...This is what I use almost all the time....I do use PF and ML/WL in a different manner while in motive waves/thrusts..,here is what I hv been doing with it for the last few days with eur.,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,751
  • Jun 17, 2011 6:26am Jun 17, 2011 6:26am
eur just blast trough my TP and landed right on 50% of last wave down...

awaiting to see what comes up...it does not seems ended or just started...look carefully..the dotted green PF still active..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,752
  • Edited 7:25am Jun 17, 2011 6:53am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting bdfxer
What a nice thread...pitchfork and the ML is my system...This is what I use almost all the time....I do use PF and ML/WL in a different manner while in motive waves/thrusts..,here is what I hv been doing with it for the last few days with eur.,
Very nice Bdfxer,

Glad you like the thread. Thank you.

Like the way you use your forks. Very nice .

Question on your first chart here...Sp 0.8...why did you choose that pivot for Pivot 2 on your lime green fork? Was it because it gave the touch midway along the U-MLH?

On Sp 0.7....there is short green line just inside of the red U-MLH...Is that just to mark a swing? Your darker green lines...are those from a longer T/F...appears that way.

Like the use of the Fibs...I find it is a very good addition to use with the forks. Your RSI below could only help confirm. Excellent!!!

Btw...I use the WLs because sometimes price may not have made new highs or lows yet, and could actually reverse after they have broken through the fork. Post 1745 above has an example. Then, if they get great touches...well, I just let price ride on them. You would see some charts on the blog using the forks together similar to the way you do, but not as the rule. Enjoyed seeing your charts and fork approach. There is so much room for personal style once traders understand what's going on.

Very, very nice.

Thanks for taking the time to post.

All the best,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,753
  • Jun 17, 2011 7:05am Jun 17, 2011 7:05am
Quoting bdfxer
eur just blast trough my TP and landed right on 50% of last wave down...

awaiting to see what comes up...it does not seems ended or just started...look carefully..the dotted green PF still active..
Well price broke through the downward fork taking out a swing high...your dark green line. Lighter green fork still active, but I will be watchful as I expect it to fall and test the resistance it broke through on its way up. Fib target above 61.8%...a favorite for traders.

Ellipse question...I notice that the launch upward touched the edge of the ellipse. Was the center the previous low: the one unmarked toward the middle?

I'd say from this system you should be in the money ...blasting through your Take Profits like that LOL.

Congrats!!

FX4

P.S. Seems to me llike you know exactly what you are doing here .
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,754
  • Jun 17, 2011 8:05am Jun 17, 2011 8:05am
SP is spread lol...it just a spread indicators.

All box markers are just LML/UML and Median lines. RSI is just for confirmation of divergence and continution of trend...nothing more.

Ellipse is also a marker of trend change...just a marking..nothing to do with my trading...

Oh, yes, I use fibs a lot along with pitchforks. right now I'm again long with S/L to be(only 10 pips.), long on the purple line...If s/l hit then no more trade for me as it's friday...

trading pf for about 6 years now...my teacher doing this for about 13 years or so...it's very profitable if used correctly...check the chart...,

and thanks for your kind reply..



Quoting FX4Newbies
Well price broke through the downward fork taking out a swing high...your dark green line. Lighter green fork still active, but I will be watchful as I expect it to fall and test the resistance it broke through on its way up. Fib target above 61.8%...a favorite for traders.

Ellipse question...I notice that the launch upward touched the edge of the ellipse. Was the center the previous low: the one unmarked toward the middle?

I'd say from this system you should be in the money ...blasting through your Take Profits like that LOL.

Congrats!!

FX4

P.S....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-m10-170611.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #1,755
  • Jun 17, 2011 8:12am Jun 17, 2011 8:12am
ok, out with +10...I don't like to PA...

Hope for more next week...

...
  • #1,756
  • Edited Jun 18, 2011 7:00am Jun 17, 2011 8:38am | Edited Jun 18, 2011 7:00am
Quoting bdfxer
SP is spread lol...it just a spread indicators.

All box markers are just LML/UML and Median lines. RSI is just for confirmation of divergence and continution of trend...nothing more.

Ellipse is also a marker of trend change...just a marking..nothing to do with my trading...

Oh, yes, I use fibs a lot along with pitchforks. right now I'm again long with S/L to be(only 10 pips.), long on the purple line...If s/l hit then no more trade for me as it's friday...

trading pf for about 6 years now...my teacher doing this for about 13 years or so...it's...
Got it. Thanks. Think you use excellent tools here, including the pitchfork LOL. I am so glad you posted as many traders don't really understand them or the principles behind them. Always refreshing when I see other traders using it successfully. Just great!!!

By the way, you mentioned "your teacher...(Dr. D?)"... Let me tell you, it shows on your charts when you have been properly taught. Too many traders trying to grab bits and pieces here and there and not taking the time to get a good foundation. May cost a little, but it will have untold dividends. I've heard of people with threads about forks (not here on FF) who, after more than a year of posting finally saying..."you mean after all this time I was posting, I was not doing this right?". The thread is here to help those who want to get a solid start.

+10 pips...lunch money today (just teasing)...not bad. Depending on the position size, 10 pips can buy a hamburger and fries or a RT ticket to Paris for lunch. Isn't trading great! It also buys the time for these activities, unlike a high paying job that keeps you in the office.

But, it comes with a great price and risk...trading I mean, not forks.

Enjoy the weekend.

FX4

P.S. You know, sometimes traders want the big runs. It is good sometimes to be content with any +pip trade...whatever the market has for you at that time.

P.P.S. RE: Your spread indicator, did you get it here on FF? Would like to get one as well...been thinking about it.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,757
  • Edited Jun 18, 2011 7:01am Jun 17, 2011 8:56am | Edited Jun 18, 2011 7:01am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Now for the outcome...

Notice how price had taken out the lows (support areas) shown by the blue lines? A tell that maybe price could be trending down some more. The second line was taken out, but with some bullish candles. Didn't spot the first one: the break of support there. Thought on the second there could be a decent move up. Green arrow shows the candle I entered on. Was up about 17 pips...a counter-trending profit. Had thought it would give more of an upward move. Got whacked. Eurozone activities yesterday didn't help either with the long. If price goes to my intended target today....well....
Price came back a little later though and exceeded my target. I have seen this happen quite often: if some major issue happens, price takes a "detour", then starts on its way back to its intended destination. It turned after hitting an ML on H4. I thought the bullish activity I saw around the entry would at least have taken it to target then.

Chart shows the comeback.

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-gbp 6-17-11.gif Size: 28 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,758
  • Edited 7:52pm Jun 17, 2011 7:38pm | Edited 7:52pm
Hello FX4

Spread indicator is widely used and available here and other forums. Attached pls. find the indy I hv customized a bit for my liking.

I use mostly custom time frames while trading. My entry is on m10(10 minutes) or m20 charts. My favorite for directional bias is m45/1h/2h charts. I solely use MT4 and nothing else. Also, I trade mostly eur/usd, sometimes eur/jpy and eur/gbp(rare).

On my free times I also do some simple fib confluence and S/R area analysis. Please find 4h chart with current likely reversel at 1.4330~50 area. Again these are common for most professional traders. Also pf is not my system, this is also very old and trusted trading method that many use and understand, I'm sure u'r aware of this fact.

Also on my chart I use something called round numbers, that I'm sure u'r aware of and probably use. These are the places(or close to) I like to enter/exit my positions. I hv also keep one chart open with daily/weekly pivots and S/R's, I only looks into them when price unexpectedly reverse shy of few pips on an ML or UML/LML line.

I'm also tought about candle patterns, especially 4h/daily hammers/hman etc. I never enter against them if any, I follow them with pf if possible, like y/day, check daily/4h pins.

There are many other ways I can trade, as I learnt them from my respected teacher(cannot name..sorry). But as per me and as per his request, I try and use only one type of method. I try and keep it simple, KISS is my way..

thanks and regards...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-4h-180611.jpg Size: 91 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Display Spread.mq4   11 KB | 235 downloads
  • #1,759
  • Edited 5:23pm Jun 18, 2011 4:34pm | Edited 5:23pm
Hello all,

Just mentioning that the weekly warp up on the blog should be posted by 8 pm E.S.T. tonight.

Continue enjoying your weekend away from trading.

FX4

NOTE: There may be a delay as the transfer of the blog to another server may not yet be complete. Will keep you posted. My apologies.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,760
  • Jun 18, 2011 6:36pm Jun 18, 2011 6:36pm
Hi again,

Things are back to normal now. Should have wrap-up charts on the blog by midnight GW.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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