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Circular Trendlines

  • #81
  • Jun 9, 2011 12:15pm Jun 9, 2011 12:15pm
Also, since this BLUE CIRLCE ON M1 is the NORTH POLE that would mean this area is very strong to penetrate...correct?

Yes Correct,

As I was answering your question it went south

If so, does that not mean it may bounce upward or just consolidate here until there is enough pounding on it to go thru?

Yes, it could bounce upwards, on this time frame, but the gravity of bigger ones would make it go down. Also notice once it got inside that blue circle it started to form resistance around the perimeter, that itself will tell you that now the circle is going to be hard to penetrate upwards.

More time spent around the perimeter of the circle to make it resistance in this case, then chances are increased to go down.

If motion started to consolidate around the blue circle on the outer perimeter of it, then in this case it would go around the perimeter of it to come down.


Quoting IMARICH1
Kambooj,

If you get time maybe you can answer my question on your RSI statement....refer to my past post or first one...thanks

Also, since this BLUE CIRLCE ON M1 is the NORTH POLE that would mean this area is very strong to penetrate...correct? If so, does that not mean it may bounce upward or just consolidate here until there is enough pounding on it to go thru? I know M1 is not as credible as a 15M chart....but just wondered if this is why we are not traveling SOUTH again...I really expected the TREND today to continue South...at least by...
  • #82
  • Jun 9, 2011 12:54pm Jun 9, 2011 12:54pm
This is yet another view
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M1_1330PM.jpg Size: 50 KB
  • #83
  • Jun 9, 2011 2:04pm Jun 9, 2011 2:04pm
This is a good system...except one problem..it uses circles to project future price movements.
Don't be fooled by randomness
  • #84
  • Jun 9, 2011 2:31pm Jun 9, 2011 2:31pm
Downtrend is still in effect

Motion trying to make few more touches to the red circle here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post4678296

Will doubt whether it will succedd in breaking it. Very highly unlikely

The additional barrels (not shown here) in the following chart (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post4678921) still trying to prevent price from going upwards.

The thrust downwards will be as strong as the drop from 4630
  • #85
  • Jun 9, 2011 6:41pm Jun 9, 2011 6:41pm
Quoting Kambooj
This is yet another view
This circle analysis is very promising, I have used cycles for timing turns in price the past which kind of have similiar philosophy to the circular trendline but imho more work is still needed to be done to strengthen the logic, as currently on the euro as I see possibilty to target 1.4743 and 1.4878.

EurUsd is still currently bullish in my view to eventually head above 1.5000s, but want to wait till weekly close to determine, I believe todays down move today which I choose to view to a retest to find support at the base of the very long 4hr candle on the 3rd of June 2011, this same candle is very important not only for the direction of trendbut also the road map to 1.5000s can be deduced from this base.

I am still having difficulty drawing up the circles on Mt4 and Netdania, if not I would have loved to mark up this 4hr range and use these circles to analyse for entries, i will keep trying th draw the circle on my chart meanwhile goodluck to you and thanks for sharing.


Nathan.
  • #86
  • Jun 9, 2011 6:51pm Jun 9, 2011 6:51pm
Quoting frothy
This is a good system...except one problem..it uses circles to project future price movements.
thats a problem because.....
  • #87
  • Jun 9, 2011 8:47pm Jun 9, 2011 8:47pm
Quoting egkid
Is it ok to post what i c on my system ? OR that is distracting your analysis?

2 Levels I'm interested about IF going to sell again will b watching PA
@1.4550 and 1.4585

Catch u later tonight
4550 touched now watching PA till 4h close
  • #88
  • Jun 9, 2011 10:29pm Jun 9, 2011 10:29pm
Hi Nathan

You said:
<----
EurUsd is still currently bullish in my view to eventually head above 1.5000s
--->

I would not disagree with you. Check my post few weeks back:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post4654844


Also You said:
<----
I am still having difficulty drawing up the circles on Mt4 and Netdania....
---->

Here is how to draw them with my full settings for NetDania.com

Again to recap settings on NetDania

1. Go to Netdania.com
2. Click on Products
3. Choose Chart Station
4. Click on Settings>>Chart

On the General Tab of this window

- Select Period=1000
- Expand=30
- Check "Set Period and Expand For All Time Scales"
- Remove the checkmark for "Show Imprted Trendlines"
- Remove Checkmark for "Show Tooltip Info When Crosshair Active"

On the "Colors" Tab of this window

- Last Price Line is black
- Chart Background is white

On The "Grid" tab of this window
- Remove Check Mark for "Show Grid"

On the left hand side of the same window, there is a tree like menu. On this menu click the plus sign underneath "Lines And Object"
Click on Fibonacci Arcs
Another series of tabs popup on the right handside

On the "Percent tab"
- Change on of the percentages to 100
- Get rid of the rest by clicking the X mark

On the "Style Tab"
- Make sure "Expand" is clicked On
- Color is black

On the "Trendline Tab"
- Click ON the checkmark for "Show Trendline"
- Click OFF the checkmarks for "Expand Right"
- Click OFF the checkmarks for "Expand Left"
- Click OFF the checkmarks for "Expand Left and Right When Moving Line"
- MAKE SURE Color must be white, so that the trendline wont be visible

Click On OK for the whole window

Now go on the chart on any time frame
Right click >> Properties
- Set Period=1000
- Set Expand=30
- Click ON the checkmark for "Set Period and Expand For all time frames"
- Click OFF the checkmark for "Antialias"
- Click OFF the checkmark for "Logarithmic Price Scale"
- Click OFF the checkmark for "Show Tooltip Info when crosshair active"
Click on the button that says "Save To General Setting"

Now click on Lines >> Add Fibonacci Arcs >> Free Hand
A menu comes up where you have already set the settings before.
Now click on "Save To General Settings"

Once you are done, then click on the "Diskette Icon" on the upper menu bar, and it will ask you to save it to a profile. Give it a name and then save your settings under that name.

Then on the bottom of the chart it says "Sign In". Follow the instructions and get yourself a account. Then sign in to your account.

What this does is that it saves your setting, so that you can go on any computer in the world and click on NetDania and sign in and it will give you exactly the layout that you had before. It remembers your settings.
Once you are done all the above steps, then you are done.

Make sure to save your settings everytime before turning off the computer.

You are done and then you can draw circles the way I do.

Good Luck

Quoting jo Nathan
This circle analysis is very promising, I have used cycles for timing turns in price the past which kind of have similiar philosophy to the circular trendline but imho more work is still needed to be done to strengthen the logic, as currently on the euro as I see possibilty to target 1.4743 and 1.4878.

EurUsd is still currently bullish in my view to eventually head above 1.5000s, but want to wait till weekly close to determine, I believe todays down move today which I choose to view to a retest to find support at the base of the very long 4hr...
  • #89
  • Jun 9, 2011 10:31pm Jun 9, 2011 10:31pm
Anybody is more than welcomed to improve this system and add their thoughts and ideas to it.

Thanks

Quoting frothy
This is a good system...except one problem..it uses circles to project future price movements.
  • #90
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:05pm Jun 9, 2011 11:05pm
Sometimes a strong drop creates symmetrical move around the perimeters of the circle. This happens quite a few times in movements that use the inside of the circle as support / resistance. We could be in the middle of something like this. so the upward movement can go as high as 4565-4575 followed by another drop.

As to the M15 Time frame I am still taking a look into it and will post something in regards to it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M5.jpg Size: 111 KB
  • #91
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:18pm Jun 9, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting egkid
4550 touched now watching PA till 4h close
Today I'm interested 2 C how powerful are the BEARS
15 min before my daily close I'm In @4536

Catch u later
PS: everyone trade his own chart , MM
  • #92
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:37pm Jun 9, 2011 11:37pm
Yesterday I had a post notifying the 4528-4531 region for a sell:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post4678420

And I did mention that the red circle would be difficult to break through in a different post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post4678563

Because I saw now that it got broken I had to visit the chart to see whats going on.

Sometimes when you draw these circles and motion breaks through them, you have to be carefull not to make a quick judgement, therefore have to let some time pass before making a judgement as to whether the break is authentic or not.

The red circle could have been shifted originally few degrees but it was not apparent at the time that I drew it, but anyhow it looks like that the break off the original red circle was not authentic, since the dotted black circle makes more sense now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_M15.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #93
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:40pm Jun 9, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting Kambooj
Sometimes a strong drop creates symmetrical move around the perimeters of the circle. This happens quite a few times in movements that use the inside of the circle as support / resistance. We could be in the middle of something like this. so the upward movement can go as high as 4565-4575 followed by another drop.

As to the M15 Time frame I am still taking a look into it and will post something in regards to it.
Yesterday i was have same thought depends on my own system and i posted this levels to watch PA 4550 and 4585 But my daily candle suggest 4550 as top even it was suppose to touch 4580 depends 1h and 30 TF but fail due to higher tf "High TF Rule smaller TF " which is my daily that why i Take manual trade @4536 and deleted sell limit@4580

I could b wrong but i thought to tell u my explanation.
  • #94
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:42pm Jun 9, 2011 11:42pm
This is why I dont do well in Forex..I had a good SHORT at 4531 and had placed a stop at B/E when it dropped almost 15 or so pips......but it came back and stopped me out and i was not able to put on another SHORT until now and it already has moved....so i can;t chase it....
  • #95
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:45pm Jun 9, 2011 11:45pm
Thats great and I saw your post. It was quite informitive.

I personally thought that It would go to 4565 as well, but the drop that happened after the post nullified everything

Anyhow so far 4530, 4549 or even 4565 if it ever happened were all good sells.

I wouldnt think this will reverse until lower.

We will have to see.

Quoting egkid
Yesterday i was have same thought depends on my own system and i posted this levels to watch PA 4550 and 4585 But my daily candle suggest 4550 as top even it was suppose to touch 4580 depends 1h and 30 TF but fail due to higher tf "High TF Rule smaller TF " which is my daily that why i Take manual trade @4536 and deleted sell limit@4580

I could b wrong but i thought to tell u my explanation.
  • #96
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:49pm Jun 9, 2011 11:49pm
Quoting IMARICH1
This is why I dont do well in Forex..I had a good SHORT at 4531 and had placed a stop at B/E when it dropped almost 15 or so pips......but it came back and stopped me out and i was not able to put on another SHORT until now and it already has moved....so i can;t chase it....
For me i do better with mental SL.
Y should i tell my TP , SL TO my Broker and Y should i lose good set up because dump spike!
  • #97
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:53pm Jun 9, 2011 11:53pm
Quoting Kambooj
Yesterday I had a post notifying the 4528-4531 region for a sell:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post4678420

And I did mention that the red circle would be difficult to break through in a different post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post4678563

Because I saw now that it got broken I had to visit the chart to see whats going on.

Sometimes when you draw these circles and motion breaks through them, you have to be carefull not to make a quick judgement, therefore have to let some...
My post when i started my Plan
Quoting egkid
Morning bro

After watching this levels , I feel comfortable to sell here@4635
Next fight will B Around 4475 - 4450 Maybe weekly close.

We will c
Catch u later
I think Now we have same Target for next Fight
Bro What TF u trade?
  • #98
  • Jun 9, 2011 11:58pm Jun 9, 2011 11:58pm
Go with smaller lot sizes, bigger stoploss. So that if it goes against you 100 pips you dont panic, and you dont loose 25% of your account size.

Lots of books talk about 1% - 2% average risk, and 5% at the most. I think they assume everybody is going with a minimum of $5000-$10,000. But if you have a mini account with 10K lot sizes minimum, its difficult to use that rule with a capital of under $2000. Even 1 lot would put you in at 5%.

If you have under $1000 then that risk would be 10%

So how can you go by the book which says 1%-2%

If you can convert your mini account to a Micro account then thats better, because you can go with few smaller lots and then you wouldnt get bothered with 100 pips against you.

If the market goes against you, there would still be a retracement and you have time to think and see whether you can exit with a small loss, break even, or whether its gonna continue in the same direction.

If it continues in the same direction, you then add lots so that your maximum loss wouldnt be more than 5%

With the Micro account, at the beginning you will do lots of mistakes, but you wont get burned down, soon you get a hang of it and will get better

Also make sure that you set a fixed number of pips for one of your lots, so that you collect something.

25-30 pips of profit is a excellent target 90% of the time for the EUR/USD

Best of Luck

Quoting IMARICH1
This is why I dont do well in Forex..I had a good SHORT at 4531 and had placed a stop at B/E when it dropped almost 15 or so pips......but it came back and stopped me out and i was not able to put on another SHORT until now and it already has moved....so i can;t chase it....
  • #99
  • Jun 10, 2011 12:01am Jun 10, 2011 12:01am
I trade the M15 time frame most of the time, but go with more lots when I get confirmation on the hourly.


Quoting egkid
My post when i started my Plan


I think Now we have same Target for next Fight
Bro What TF u trade?
  • #100
  • Jun 10, 2011 12:18am Jun 10, 2011 12:18am
Quoting Kambooj
I trade the M15 time frame most of the time, but go with more lots when I get confirmation on the hourly.
Many good traders trade smaller TF that is good whatever it profitable.

Have u try to analysis in 4h or daily?, I think it will b really interesting

Now must go
Catch u later today
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