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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,381
  • Jun 3, 2011 7:19am Jun 3, 2011 7:19am
Quoting realjumper
I seldom post in that thread anymore.....too many ego's over there!
You're so right, I have many people there on my ignore list
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  • #24,382
  • Jun 3, 2011 7:25am Jun 3, 2011 7:25am
If NFP surprises to the upside, that would be bad bad for US, does anyone realize that?
ADP numbers are pretty accurate, since they print the salary statements for 16 million us people.
NFP number way better than ADP means usually that there are many Government Jobs added. they are not in th ADP numbers.
I've worked 6 years for ADP as a Treasury Analyst and believe me I know what I'm talking about.

Shamu
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  • #24,383
  • Jun 3, 2011 7:59am Jun 3, 2011 7:59am
hmm...the reaction to the numbers is not quite what I had expected

I guess a lot was priced in already
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,384
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:10am Jun 3, 2011 8:10am
Quoting realjumper
hmm...the reaction to the numbers is not quite what I had expected

I guess a lot was priced in already
Numbers are bad, UY reaction same as after ADP, opposite as would be logic. But good for my trade, I bought way more between 80.15 and 80.20, my b/e is now 80.38, a level that will make this trade absolutely a winner, even if I have to let it go over the weekend again.
But I'm a lot safer than last weeks trade.

Leverage now 12 > 1
I don't believe it will go below 81, but we'll have to wait and see.
If it does, I'll buy more and increase my capital to stay safe.

Shamu
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  • #24,385
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:15am Jun 3, 2011 8:15am
Quoting KillerWhale
Numbers are bad, UY reaction same as after ADP, opposite as would be logic. But good for my trade, I bought way more between 80.15 and 80.20, my b/e is now 80.38, a level that will make this trade absolutely a winner, even if I have to let it go over the weekend again.
But I'm a lot safer than last weeks trade.

Leverage now 12 > 1
I don't believe it will go below 81, but we'll have to wait and see.
If it does, I'll buy more and increase my capital to stay safe.

Shamu
You mean 80 I take it?

I too bought 80.15......SL 79.80.....TP 100.00
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,386
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:38am Jun 3, 2011 8:38am
Quoting realjumper
You mean 80 I take it?

I too bought 80.15......SL 79.80.....TP 100.00
Yes, sorry of course I mean 80.
A tip for you: set your s/l @ 79.40 if you can, that's a very safe one I think. 25 % of my trades will be taken out there, for the rest no s/l's.

One question, of course TP 100 is very ambitious, but when do you think you will reach it? I am at b/e 80.34 now, and I guess I have to hold it over the weekend again. But this time I'm safe.
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  • #24,387
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:43am Jun 3, 2011 8:43am
TP 100.00 ... I like that

Quoting realjumper
You mean 80 I take it?

I too bought 80.15......SL 79.80.....TP 100.00
  • #24,388
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:50am Jun 3, 2011 8:50am
Quoting KillerWhale
Yes, sorry of course I mean 80.
A tip for you: set your s/l @ 79.40 if you can, that's a very safe one I think. 25 % of my trades will be taken out there, for the rest no s/l's.

One question, of course TP 100 is very ambitious, but when do you think you will reach it? I am at b/e 80.34 now, and I guess I have to hold it over the weekend again. But this time I'm safe.
It's a very small trade Shamu, and I'm not really that confident about it at this stage, I'm not prepared to give it a larger stop because in all honesty I see nothing to suggest a reversal is on the cards. This trade is merely a half-cocked attempt at bottom picking, so I shall not be too surprised or worried, if it gets stopped out.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,389
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:55am Jun 3, 2011 8:55am
Quoting realjumper
It's a very small trade Shamu, and I'm not really that confident about it at this stage, I'm not prepared to give it a larger stop because in all honesty I see nothing to suggest a reversal is on the cards. This trade is merely a half-cocked attempt at bottom picking, so I shall not be too surprised or worried, if it gets stopped out.
You're probably safe, like I said I don't believe it will go below 80 today, but you never know. I wish you success, hope that BoJ is ready to intervene and I'm getting a extra hour of sleep now.

Happy trading.

Shamu
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  • #24,390
  • Jun 3, 2011 9:00am Jun 3, 2011 9:00am
Quoting KillerWhale
You're probably safe, like I said I don't believe it will go below 80 today, but you never know. I wish you success, hope that BoJ is ready to intervene and I'm getting a extra hour of sleep now.

Happy trading.

Shamu
Thanks Shamu...if the trade survives the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in a couple of minutes, then it might survive until Monday!

I'll off to sleep shortly too....it's 2am here. Have a great weekend.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,391
  • Jun 3, 2011 9:05am Jun 3, 2011 9:05am
Quoting realjumper
You mean 80 I take it?

I too bought 80.15......SL 79.80.....TP 100.00
Ok....SL @ break even now.....free trade.

Have a great weekend everyone
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,392
  • Jun 3, 2011 9:33am Jun 3, 2011 9:33am
wow YEN is awesome, look at the 2 charts

USDX still bearish, USDYEN almost recovered, crazy!!
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  • #24,393
  • Jun 3, 2011 11:06am Jun 3, 2011 11:06am
I just made use of this and made myself a good trade =)

Quoting tankokjian
wow YEN is awesome, look at the 2 charts

USDX still bearish, USDYEN almost recovered, crazy!!
  • #24,394
  • Jun 3, 2011 1:18pm Jun 3, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting tankokjian
I just made use of this and made myself a good trade =)
jpy is not weighted much on the usdx
  • #24,395
  • Edited 8:13pm Jun 3, 2011 4:10pm | Edited 8:13pm
Fortunately I took this trade out @ 80.54, 20 pip gain but it were big pips.
Already new trade in to hold over the weekend. B/E 80.40

It was an extremely good week

Happy weekend everyone

Shamu
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  • #24,396
  • Jun 3, 2011 6:35pm Jun 3, 2011 6:35pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Fortunately I took this trade out @ 80.54, 20 pip gain but it where big pips.
Already new trade in to hold over the weekend. B/E 80.40

It was an extremely good week

Happy weekend everyone

Shamu
I was stopped at break even, so the slate is all clear for the weekend. I like to have a clean slate for the weekend. Yep, this week has been ok for me too. Nothing stunning but steady progress in the right direction.

Glad you had a good week Shamu......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,397
  • Jun 3, 2011 8:49pm Jun 3, 2011 8:49pm
Quoting realjumper
I was stopped at break even, so the slate is all clear for the weekend. I like to have a clean slate for the weekend. Yep, this week has been ok for me too. Nothing stunning but steady progress in the right direction.

Glad you had a good week Shamu......
Thanks Jumper,

Keep a close eye on UY, my idea is it will get in the high 70's, but 70.55 could be a nice bottom. (the low 5/5/11) It is not only a support, it is also a level where the fear for BoJ intervention will be on everyone's mind.
Tomorrow I'll study some sites like dailyfx.com and fxstreet.com to get an idea what the general opinion is. And I'll google for some more info.
EU possible reversal soon to come, don't know where yet, have to study that also. UCAD, don't wanna do anything except the very small short that I have. I'd rather wait for another buy opportunity.
GB, no idea yet, will study that too.

Any idea about NZ$? I never traded it.

Have a great weekend,

Shamu
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  • #24,398
  • Jun 3, 2011 9:02pm Jun 3, 2011 9:02pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Thanks Jumper,

Keep a close eye on UY, my idea is it will get in the high 70's, but 70.55 could be a nice bottom. (the low 5/5/11) It is not only a support, it is also a level where the fear for BoJ intervention will be on everyone's mind.
Tomorrow I'll study some sites like dailyfx.com and fxstreet.com to get an idea what the general opinion is. And I'll google for some more info.
EU possible reversal soon to come, don't know where yet, have to study that also. UCAD, don't wanna do anything except the very small short that I have. I'd...
I have 5/511 as 79.55....we haven't been down to 70.55, and I doubt that we will ever get that low....BOJ would never allow that!!

I'm just stepping out for a while, but I have another theory which I'll explain with a chart later.

You enjoy your weekend too

Cheers,
RJ
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,399
  • Jun 3, 2011 10:42pm Jun 3, 2011 10:42pm
Quoting realjumper
I have 5/511 as 79.55....we haven't been down to 70.55, and I doubt that we will ever get that low....BOJ would never allow that!!

I'm just stepping out for a while, but I have another theory which I'll explain with a chart later.

You enjoy your weekend too

Cheers,
RJ
Lol I keep messing up my numbers. of course it is 79.55. Curious about your theory. I'll do anything to find good but safe trades. By 9/15/12 I want to start living of trading, and I need 3% on NAV per week average to reach that goal.
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  • #24,400
  • Jun 4, 2011 2:16am Jun 4, 2011 2:16am
Quoting KillerWhale
Lol I keep messing up my numbers. of course it is 79.55. Curious about your theory. I'll do anything to find good but safe trades. By 9/15/12 I want to start living of trading, and I need 3% on NAV per week average to reach that goal.
The theory is nothing too exciting, and as always, it could go either way. However, if you look at the monthly chart, you can see that last time we were down here was in 1995 for Kobe earthquake. That time BOJ pulled off a highly successful intervention and turned the trend around. It's doubtful that will happen this time due to the mess most of the rest of the world trying to recover from.

Having said that, I do think that BOJ will step in again if we see a sudden drop. They stepped in this time, with the help of the other G8 friends after the spike down. I don't know whether the G8 would help out again, but I think BOJ would have to step in if it went too much lower too quickly.

Now, take a look at the daily chart. You can see that the PA has been banging away at breaking lower for coming up on 8 months. The only time it managed to do, BOJ sent it packing straight away. Below this level, there isn't a hell of a lot of support.....some, but not too much. If the PA could break these last few support levels, below is uncharted territory. BOJ won't let that happen.

During the past 7 months, the news has never been pro USD, except maybe a couple of random news reports to keep us on our toes. If the PA was going to continue to trend downwards (as opposed to spike down), it would already be well on it's way, surely?

Therefore I think the trend down has come up against a brick wall, and the trend is finished. There is no reversal yet, lets be quite clear about that, but the trend down is finished. The only way it will resume is if the BOJ allow it to resume.

So, buying into the dips is the only course of action that makes any sense to me. Normally I wouldn't consider buying against such a long term downtrend that has not show a sign of reversal, but in this case, I don't see the downtrend resuming.

If it was going to resume down, it has had plenty of opportunity to do so.
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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