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  • #61
  • Edited 9:04am May 17, 2011 8:48am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting nasir.khan
Would be awesome if u can share it here.
.
OK... No probs... It's pretty self explanatory but you need to manually enter the data as it becomes available. this isn't for every single release just the ones I've listed (You can of course add your own or delete some)

It would benefit you to be familiar with using excel in order to do the basic things like copy the formulas to the new cell as you add more data.

If you make any improvements or have any suggestions I hope you will share them with me. Thanks

EDIT: I sort of stopped tracking NZD... Maybe it's cause they kick our ass in rugby but I just don't follow it that much, the Indicies, Commodities and actual Forex close prices are just taken by the close price at the end of each month
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Market Map.xls   192 KB | 541 downloads
Time hides Nothing
  • #62
  • May 17, 2011 8:51am May 17, 2011 8:51am
Quoting bug
There seems to be a lot of confusion around the issue of commodities in general,
You got that right, personally I know the bare basics but have only recently taken an interest in these markets... Glad you're with us Bug great post BTW

I'm sure Lumesh will have something to say about it I just hope we can keep things civilized and informative.
Time hides Nothing
  • #63
  • Edited 9:05am May 17, 2011 8:54am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting Location
Bug, do you have any recommendations?
I'm afraid I don't. The problem here is that a lot of universities have their own publishing bodies and most of the professors also author the books that they use in class. This means that there are probably thousand to choose from. What you could do is browse around Amazon, read the reviews and then buy a used copy (these books are stupendously expensive when new). Or you could go and have a look at the selection of books available in your local public library (if there are none get yourself a card in a uni library).

If you would really press me I would suggest you contact Ed Dolan. He is an academic and from reading his blog I'd say he is non-biased and very easy to understand. You can read his about page on his blog: http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/p/about-ed-dolan.html

Quoting CindyXXXX
Firstly I'm glad you could join us Lumesh I hope you stick around... the following isn't an attack on you just discussing the issue you raised becasue I was watching one of the conferences the other day on CNBC and this was one of the main issues..
I think I saw that too. Was it the hearing where they pressed the CEO of Exxon?

Quoting CindyXXXX
You got that right, personally I know the bare basics but have only recently taken an interest in these markets... Glad you're with us Bug great post BTW
Thanks.

Quoting CindyXXXX
I'm sure Lumesh will have something to say about it I just hope we can keep things civilized and informative.
I hope so too. I just can't let misinformation like that go unaddressed.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #64
  • May 17, 2011 9:02am May 17, 2011 9:02am
Quoting CindyXXXX
You got that right, personally I know the bare basics but have only recently taken an interest in these markets... Glad you're with us Bug great post BTW

I'm sure Lumesh will have something to say about it I just hope we can keep things civilized and informative.
Thanks for the Sheet. I had a job and worked with Excel for almost 3 years so dont worry about that. I will let u know if i did any upgrades.

I think we are not going anywhere with those debates. I have not saw one debate on FF where one of two participants agreed on a point. They keep coming back with more explanations every time.

Cant we just post what we have to say about the topic of the thread?

Or if u have an educational purpose too than i am fine with it but it will take more time to get to what we visited the thread for.

It's ur thread so u can decide what u want with it.
.
  • #65
  • May 17, 2011 9:09am May 17, 2011 9:09am
I think healthy debate is good because it's important to get to the truth but your right, I think we're (traders) a pretty hard headed bunch at times and egos often get in the way of a purposeful discussion on the forum here. But if we can agree to diagree when needed I think we'll be fine.

And yes Bug I think that was the one (Exon CEO). The lady asked him what the price a barrel would be if it were determined by physical supply demand factors of actual oil and he said about $65 a Barrel. So the lady rested her case saying that the reason we're paying $100 + a barrel is all becasue of speculators... What she failed to take into account (which is where I was trying to get at in my post before) was the fact that the futures market drives much of the demand that drives the price of oil up to $100+, which is a necessity of Businesses in hedging that price risk.

The core speculators add liquidity to the market plain and simple
Time hides Nothing
  • #66
  • May 17, 2011 9:15am May 17, 2011 9:15am
Quoting nasir.khan

I think we are not going anywhere with those debates. I have not saw one debate on FF where one of two participants agreed on a point. They keep coming back with more explanations every time.

Cant we just post what we have to say about the topic of the thread?

No, i still think debating to a certain degree is always healthy. But i promise you i'll keep it as short as possible.

We have a simple problem here: We are comparing apples with oranges here and rather emotionally too

give me a little time
  • #67
  • Edited 9:35am May 17, 2011 9:20am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting CindyXXXX
And yes Bug I think that was the one (Exon CEO). The lady asked him what the price a barrel would be if it were determined by physical supply demand factors of actual oil and he said about $65 a Barrel. So the lady rested her case saying that the reason we're paying $100 + a barrel is all becasue of speculators...
In the very core sense she is still right. And the factual figures Bug posted only confirms that.
Adding: i don't mean she is right in determining the exact value of what oil should be, that's rather impossible cause there's no way of knowing what the real demanders of oil are willing to pay. I mean she is right in implying that the price of oil deviates from the "fundamental value" of what it "should" be at a given point in time all other things considered.


Quoting CindyXXXX
What she failed to take into account (which is where I was trying to get at in my post before) was the fact that the futures market drives much of the demand that drives the price of oil up to $100+, which is a necessity of Businesses in hedging that price risk.
Can you please explain this further so i can take that also into an account when i post my comment.
  • #68
  • Edited 9:45am May 17, 2011 9:34am | Edited 9:45am
Quoting lumesh
Can you please explain this further so i can take that also into an account when i post my comment.
Just that from a purely economical perspective of supply and demand as in the phyiscal supply of Oil and the actual global demand intended for physical use will yes put the price at $65 a barrel but the actual supply and demand that determines the price is liquidity related in terms of financial market buyers and sellers... This means that yes the price is elevated by the futures market speculation (including hedging) but at the same time it is what it is... Businesses NEED to hedge because the Oil market is so unpredictable and thus the demand that determines price will always be greater than the actual demand in an economic sense... It's an important part of the economy for the business in it to run smoothly

I know you separated speculation from Hedging and I see your point there I just group them together for simplicity... The actual speculators by the true definition add liquidity to the market (an illiquid market at that) and so play an important role. I find it hard to accept that speculators alone cause the oil prices to be so volatile, I think its just the nature of the beast... With less liquidity (no speculators) would prices be less volatile?

Anyway like I said I am certainly no expert and prob shouldn't have opened my mouth in the first place on this topic but this is just what I was driving at.
Time hides Nothing
  • #69
  • May 17, 2011 9:49am May 17, 2011 9:49am
Just an interesting note: Whenever the EUR starts dipping over the past few days positive news seems to come out from the IMF holding the currency up...

From Forex Live:
IMF: Germany could exceed 3% growth this year

Written by Jamie Coleman
May 17, 2011 at 14:18 GMT

Reuters headline.
EUR/USD is firming again, now at 1.4175; offers are seen at 1.4180 and 1.4200.
Time hides Nothing
  • #70
  • May 17, 2011 9:50am May 17, 2011 9:50am
(RTTNews) - The dollar gained on the yen but edged lower against the sterling on Tuesday, as data showing soaring U.K. inflation raised speculation the Bank of England will hike rates in the coming months.

UK annual inflation came in above expectations in April driven by transport costs, official data showed Tuesday. The consumer price index (CPI) increased 4.5 percent, after rising 4 percent in March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Economists were looking for a figure of 4.1 percent.

While central bank governor Mervyn King warned against overreacting to inflationary pressures, further increases in consumer prices are likely to compel the BoE to tighten monetary policy by year's end.

The dollar eased to $1.63 versus the sterling, before finding its footing as the sun came up on Wall Street. Late last month, the dollar hit a yearly low of $1.6737.

Greece's worsening debt crisis remained in focus this morning, as European officials worked to cobble a resolution that would not cripple Athens with extreme austerity measures.

Sunday's stunning arrest of IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn may have complicated matters for Greece. Strauss-Kahn was expected to urge against some of the drastic austerity measures insisted on by Greece's neighbors.

A re-profiling of Greek debt is possible by asking the private creditors to extend the maturities on their bonds, Euro-group chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said Monday, while indicating that such a move will come only if the debt-ridden country unveils fresh measures to meet its deficit goals.

The dollar held its ground versus the euro, staying near $1.42 after touching a 7-week high of $1.4047 last week.

Germany's economic sentiment deteriorated more than expected in May, results of a key survey showed Tuesday. The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment dropped to 3.1 from 7.6 in April, the Mannheim-based Centre for European Economic Research.

The buck broke out of a narrow trading band to hit a 3-week high of Y81.76 versus the yen.

Looking ahead to today's economic news from the U.S., the Commerce Department is scheduled to release its housing starts report at 8:30 am ET.

Economists expect housing starts to rise further to 570,000 in April following 7.5 percent month-over-month growth to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 549,000 in March. On the other hand, building permits, an indicator of future housing activity, are expected to moderate to 590,000 from the 594,000 reported for the previous month.

Also on tap is the industrial production report of the Federal Reserve. The report due at 9:15 am ET is expected to show that production growth slowed to 0.4 percent in April compared to the previous month. At the same time, capacity utilization is expected to have edged up slightly.
  • #71
  • May 17, 2011 9:55am May 17, 2011 9:55am
Quoting CindyXXXX
I think healthy debate is good because it's important to get to the truth but your right, I think we're (traders) a pretty hard headed bunch at times and egos often get in the way of a purposeful discussion on the forum here. But if we can agree to diagree when needed I think we'll be fine.
I promise to behave on my part. I will also promise to agree to disagree.

Quoting CindyXXXX
And yes Bug I think that was the one (Exon CEO). The lady asked him what the price a barrel would be if it were determined by physical supply demand factors of actual oil and he said about $65 a Barrel. So the lady rested her case saying that the reason we're paying $100 + a barrel is all becasue of speculators... What she failed to take into account (which is where I was trying to get at in my post before) was the fact that the futures market drives much of the demand that drives the price of oil up to $100+, which is a necessity of Businesses...
Yeah, I saw that part too. I'm sure that Exxon's CEO has a lot more information than we do, but the market as a whole still has more information than any one person, including the CEO of an international oil company. For politicians it is very comfortable to make a case for $65 oil based on one oil executive's estimate, but we have to realize that if we are to base our economic decision on the best estimates of the few but not the many we will downgrade ourselves into a planned economy (Soviet Russia, anyone?). The economic history of the West has proven that for most services and goods, a free market works best exactly because decisions are made by the many, not by the few.

So why is oil trading at a 100+ dollars a barrel? Even if we were to accept Exxon CEO's claim that supply and demand account for 65 dollars of the price there is still 35+ dollars left unexplained.

From past price history we know that oil supply disruptions have the potential to drive the price higher. We also know that negative real interest rates and loose monetary policy have the potential to drive the price higher. Economic growth, but also the expectation of future economic growth can also drive the price higher. Furthermore, we know that an accumulation of fundamental factors favoring the movement of price in one particular direction always invites speculators piggybacking on the trend.

1) supply disruptions - only Libya so far, but this has taken over 1 million barrels of light sweet off the market
2) loose monetary policy and negative real interest rates - all around the world (USA, ECB, China, Japan, Brazil, Chile, India etc.)
3) (expectation of) economic growth - look all around you, especially in emerging markets
4) piggybacking speculators - very, very likely

35/4= 8.75
If all of these factors had an equal role, each would add 8.75 dollars to the current price. That is, if Exxon CEO is correct. Supply and demand alone could account for 80 or only 40. We don't know and I doubt we ever will.

As much as some people would like to view things via the very simplistic supply and demand prism the real world is a bit more complicated that text book examples would lead to you believe. I'm not in denial as to the role of speculators in the oil market, but I think claiming they are responsible for every dollar above $65 is stretching it. Speculators aren't some sort of weird group who can only travel in one direction - they can either choose to buy or sell. If it weren't for the asymmetry in the fundamentals for oil I'm sure we'd see speculators pushing the price up and down. But in the current environment the risk for speculators is on the downside, not the upside.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #72
  • May 17, 2011 10:00am May 17, 2011 10:00am
I'll throw a quick opinion.

Quoting CindyXXXX
JUst that from a purely economical perspective of supply and demand as in the phyiscal supply of Oil and the actual gloabl demand intended for physical use will yes put the price at $65 a barrel but the actual supply and demand that determines the price is liquidity related in terms of financial market buyers and sellers... This means that yes the price is elevated by the futures market speculation (including hedging) but at the same time it is what it is... Businesses NEED to hedge because the...
Again, you are confusing speculation with hedging. Business ONLY need to hedge considering THEIR business ! It doesn't matter what is going on with the price of oil (whether it's moved by prevailing geopolitical risks or whatever.) IF their business is expanding they NEED more oil and thus they need to hedge more (sell oil). WHY ? Because they ARE BENEFITING from the rise of petrol in the gas station (if their business is to sell that gas) when global oil prices go up. OR they ARE RAISING transport costs for their clients if global price of oil rises.

They don't need to hedge because the price of oil is unpredictable. If they are buying oil because of the geopolitical risks that are prevailing then THIS IS SPECULATING. Do you think that the REAL DEMAND for oil increased 20% in 10 days starting from late Feb 2011 as reflected by the price ? No. THIS WAS speculation NOT hedging by businesses.

Quoting CindyXXXX
I know you separated speculation from Hedging and I see your point there I just group them together for simplicity... The actual speculators by the true definition add liquidity to the market (an illiquid market at that) and so play an important role. I find it hard to accept that speculators alone cause the oil prices to be so volatile, I think its just the nature of the beast... With less liquidity (no speculators) would prices be less volatile?

They need to be separated to understand the difference between them. You can use them together...
Now worries, that is why we are discussing those things, aren't we ?
  • #73
  • May 17, 2011 10:04am May 17, 2011 10:04am
I'll throw a quick opinion.

Quoting CindyXXXX
JUst that from a purely economical perspective of supply and demand as in the phyiscal supply of Oil and the actual gloabl demand intended for physical use will yes put the price at $65 a barrel but the actual supply and demand that determines the price is liquidity related in terms of financial market buyers and sellers... This means that yes the price is elevated by the futures market speculation (including hedging) but at the same time it is what it is... Businesses NEED to hedge because the...
Again, you are confusing speculation with hedging. Business ONLY need to hedge considering THEIR business ! It doesn't matter what is going on with the price of oil (whether it's moved by prevailing geopolitical risks or whatever.) IF their business is expanding they NEED more oil and thus they need to hedge more (sell oil). WHY ? Because they ARE BENEFITING from the rise of petrol in the gas station (if their business is to sell that gas) when global oil prices go up. OR they ARE RAISING transport costs for their clients if global price of oil rises.

They don't need to hedge because the price of oil is unpredictable. If they are buying oil because of the geopolitical risks that are prevailing then THIS IS SPECULATING. Do you think that the REAL DEMAND for oil increased 20% in 10 days starting from late Feb 2011 as reflected by the price ? No. THIS WAS speculation NOT hedging by businesses.

Quoting CindyXXXX
I know you separated speculation from Hedging and I see your point there I just group them together for simplicity... The actual speculators by the true definition add liquidity to the market (an illiquid market at that) and so play an important role. I find it hard to accept that speculators alone cause the oil prices to be so volatile, I think its just the nature of the beast... With less liquidity (no speculators) would prices be less volatile?
They need to be separated to understand the difference between them. You can use them together if you are talking about general liquidity and order flow trading. Of course speculators ADD liquidity. Any participant ADDs to liquidity. I said it on my last reply to you and i'm saying it again:

Speculators by themselves do NOT cause prices to be volatile...do you understand that now

Quoting CindyXXXX
Anyway like I said I am certainly no expert and prob shouldn't have opened my mouth in the first place on this topic but this is just what I was driving at.
No worries, that is why we are discussing those things, aren't we ?
  • #74
  • May 17, 2011 10:10am May 17, 2011 10:10am
Quoting jmtini
(RTTNews) - The dollar gained on the yen but edged lower against the sterling on Tuesday, as data showing soaring U.K. inflation raised speculation the Bank of England will hike rates in the coming months.
Hey jmtini, welcome to the thread, thanks for your report

Quoting lumesh
Speculators by themselves do NOT cause prices to be volatile...do you understand that now
Rodger that... I will not comment any further on Oil because I feel I'm just confusing things. It's an area I need to read up a bit more on. I appreciate the discussion though. Thanks
Time hides Nothing
  • #75
  • May 17, 2011 10:34am May 17, 2011 10:34am
WASHINGTON (AP) - Construction of new homes plummeted in April, dragged down by a major drop in apartment building.

Builders broke ground on 10.6 percent fewer new homes last month. The seasonally adjusted rate fell to 523,000 homes per year, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That's less than half the 1.2 million homes per year that economists consider a sign of a healthy market. The weak construction data show how builders are struggling to compete with millions of foreclosures, which are forcing down prices for previously occupied homes. The median price of a new home was about 34 percent higher in March than the median price for a re-sale. That's more than twice the markup in healthy housing markets. (LINK)


BRUSSELS (AP) - Top European officials disagreed over whether to consider changing the debt repayment terms for Greek bonds, a move some experts say is inevitable and others deem too risky for the region's broader financial stability.
Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the group of 17 eurozone finance ministers, said Monday he "wouldn't exclude" a voluntary delay to repayments on Greek government debt that would give the struggling country more time to fix its economy and regain market trust.

FOREXLIVE - It looks as though a “reprofiling” or “soft restructuring” may not be a classified as a “credit event”, meaning holders of credit default swaps will not be paid… (LINK)

THIS TEXT FROM ARTICLE LINKED FROM FOREXLIVE
As consensus has grown that authorities will look to avoid triggering CDS when restructuring Greek bonds, market participants have been scrambling to understand the potential ramifications of such a development, with many fearing the worst.
“If there is a restructuring that doesn’t trigger CDS, that calls in to question the value of the instrument,” said the ISDA board member. “If you buy CDS and it doesn’t economically protect you as expected, you will question the usefulness of that tool as a risk mitigant, and you’ll be unlikely to ever buy protection again.”
Some dispute this analysis – pointing out that Greek CDS has performed well in hedging the mark-to-market risk of Greek bonds over the past year. While conceding this to be true, other senior derivatives traders are worried CDS will be devalued in the eyes of end-users if Greece were to sidestep a CDS restructuring event via legal manoeuvring.
It could also have more immediate repercussions for European debt. One London-based sovereign CDS trader said much recent peripheral sovereign bond-buying has stemmed from negative basis players (where an investor buys a bond and CDS protection in order to arbitrage differences between the two levels). These investors might not take kindly to Greek CDS not triggering.
“For the last six months, the only Greek bond buying that’s happened away from the ECB has been basis buying,” said the trader. “If you take those guys out of the equation, there would be a lot of sellers coming out of Portuguese and Irish bonds, because they would realise their CDS hedges aren’t good. If Greek debt restructures, then CDS should trigger just in terms of the economics of what it’s meant to do.” (LINK)

Personally I don't believe they can manage to pull off a default or a reprofiling without triggering a credit event. I don't claim to know a lot about credit derivatives but from what I know any delay in payment is considered a credit event. Whether it's a technical default or a default due to insolvency should be irrelevant. Time will tell.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #76
  • May 17, 2011 10:47am May 17, 2011 10:47am
To be honest I dont delve to deep into the reasons why the fundies do what they do.
Its nice on my part to know but not totally neccesary.

Use the known correlations to give you confidence to stay in a trade .
Hesitating in a trade and exiting too early cause you have no clue why its doing what its doing.

One thing I'am aware of at the moment is the powers that be didnt just raise margins too calm volatility ,they want the prices down for some reason ,maybe to help j p morgan short, who knows for sure .Obamas re election ?

So once you know how the various instruments affect your currency pair be aware not to fight.

Last time silver had a big push up to $50 they raised margin requirements 6 or 7 times until prices did indeed drop and stayed down. for a long time .
They did the same this time although price would need to get to about $130 to equal the previous high of $50. with current dollar value.


Not saying we seen a top in the various instruments but if they have reasons to keep stuff down they can keep raising margins till they get the desired result ,as we have seen recently.

Use the information ,25% margin increases lowers the price .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #77
  • May 17, 2011 11:13am May 17, 2011 11:13am
Quoting paul1
One thing I'am aware of at the moment is the powers that be didnt just raise margins too calm volatility ,they want the prices down for some reason ,maybe to help j p morgan short, who knows for sure .Obamas re election ?
What are you talking about? Silver witnessed a massive 5 standard deviation event. Margin requirements are intended to cover 95% of potential losses and an increase in volatility triggered the margin hike. I promised to be civilised, but I'm sorry, this is just way too much. Do you think silver should go up in a straight line? You can't base your investments or trading on something you read from a blog or GATA (an organisation who consists of people whose only job is to prop up the price of gold), it's just hearsay and rumors.

From now on I won't be posting anything on this thread except news and fundamental information. Don't expect replies to anything else even if you're replying to my post.

If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #78
  • May 17, 2011 11:19am May 17, 2011 11:19am
Quoting bug

Your statement about supply and demand is incorrect and it seems to me that you're getting your information outdated sources or from some sort of political news website, otherwise you wouldn't be so far off the mark. I'm not making accusations here, I'm just telling you how it looks to a person who reads publications published by trustworthy sources.
In all honesty Bug, you are really misintrepreting what i was trying to say. If you go back then you will see that the discussion was about WHY the oil market is so volatile and how that relates to the "fundamental value" or REAL demand for oil.

Where was i implying to some sort of factual data, so that you need to start to talk about trustworthy sources ??

I merely said supply has been constant because i used THAT INFO from the previous poster. AND i said demand hasn't changed that much either AS IN there are no supply/demand disruptions going on TO SUPPORT oil price rise of more than 20% in 10 days (Feb 2011). And that is not the only example. THAT WAS THE WHOLE POINT !

Where was that misleading information i gave out ?

So, given all the above then most of your arguments, WITHIN CONTEXT of what was really discussed, were mere bullshit. Other than that i admire your indepth analysis and to be honest i think that this was really why you posted that comment. You subconsiously wanted to read something like that out in someones text and wanted to share your vast knowledge about the subject so you were a bit ignorant about what was really discussed. That is of course my sole opinion, no offense

Quoting bug
Third, the reason oil and other commodities are behaving the way they do is because they are commodities. There is a reason some people call commodities the 'champagne asset class'. If there are no bubbles in champagne it's not the real thing.
That's about the most rediculous argument i've ever heard. That was another (indirect) reason why we had that discussion. Cause people don't really know what is driving the markets (which is the whole point of this thread by the way).

Let's do it this way: Give your argument (the above one) to someone and give mine to the same person. Which one would make more sense in your opinion ?

Quoting bug
There is the constant battle between supply and demand - when demand starts increasing supply struggles to keep up and prices go higher
The reality is different. That IS the problem. Supply doesn't struggle. Prices don't increase 20% because there are 20% more NET REAL demand. That IS what we are discussing. btw, do you know how many oil market participants trade the oil WITHOUT the delivery obligation ??

I hope you realize your mistake here.


Quoting bug
lumesh,
Please for your own sake pick up a book on microeconomics and a book on macroeconomics. Get the know the basics and you'll be much better off.
Thanks for that suggestion. Will do. However, i do suggest you the same cause you seem not to know what macroeconomics really is if that was the only argument (that quotation) you relied on.
  • #79
  • May 17, 2011 11:21am May 17, 2011 11:21am
Quoting bug

From now on I won't be posting anything on this thread except news and fundamental information. Don't expect replies to anything else even if you're replying to my post.


Damn, i missed it like less than 10 minutes
  • #80
  • May 17, 2011 11:27am May 17, 2011 11:27am
Great work Cindy


Quoting CindyXXXX
OK... No probs... It's pretty self explanatory but you need to manually enter the data as it becomes available. this isn't for every single release just the ones I've listed (You can of course add your own or delete some)

It would benefit you to be familiar with using excel in order to do the basic things like copy the formulas to the new cell as you add more data.

If you make any improvements or have any suggestions I hope you will share them with me. Thanks

EDIT: I sort of stopped tracking NZD... Maybe it's cause they kick our ass in...
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