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  • Post #41
  • Quote
  • Edited 5:58am May 17, 2011 4:08am | Edited 5:58am
Quote
HOWEVER this meeting was held AFTER the employment and spending figures of last week and perhaps this factor will come in to play and delay the rate rise as the market seems to have anticipated. This may mean now that the CPI figures in July will now become a crucial element in the rate decisions of the RBA.
Great point cindy. Overall I don't think the minutes gave us anything to work with. We had the move down but then we reversed. IFR reported real money buying in the 1.0540 area. This leaves me to wonder if the real money buying might have thrown us into a uninformed rally. I'll be curious to see London's reaction

I put on a speculative short(demo) @1.0615 to see if the idea materializes. Stop currently @ BE.

Update: Didn't expect EUR news to impact the AUD/USD like that. Just as I was contemplating exiting. Setting TP for 1.0575. Going to hold stop @ BE and sleep. I got what I wanted to see, time for bed.

Updaterice just spiked down. Trade exited.

IFR reporting offers above 1.0650
Bids below 1.0540
Cautiously optimistic. . .
Quoting CindyXXXX
[center]...



Impressive data analyst by you Cindy...
I am a junior trader looking for some guidance.

I still have 1 lot buy audusd @0617 & 1 lot buy audusd @1.0555 both have protection @0477.

I haven't set the target for both positions.
Do you think that aud will go higher anytime this week? Will it goes to 1.0700?


Thx Cindy can't wait to here any comment from u
  • Post #43
  • Quote
  • Edited 4:29am May 17, 2011 4:18am | Edited 4:29am
Quoting lumesh
s
So, the conclusion is that Oil is a speculators market. That is why you are seeing a 5%-10% movement in a day simply cause there aren't enough liquidity. When did you last see a 1000 point drop (or rise) in eurusd ?
.
Firstly I'm glad you could join us Lumesh I hope you stick around... the following isn't an attack on you just discussing the issue you raised becasue I was watching one of the conferences the other day on CNBC and this was one of the main issues..

I don't much like this argument becasue it implies simply that the speculation in oil is by traders alone using the instrument as simple money generating tool (that's how I read it anyway), and therefore traders are to blame for high oil prices which is ridiculous... The main reason for the volatility in oil is due to the speculation in the futures market but a large part of this speculation is from normal business activity simply hedging price risks as you can imagine would be a pretty common risk among businesses worldwide.

Perhaps that's what you meant or perhaps I'm wrong but either way its claims like this that end up creating restrictions for retail traders like us. Speculators in whatever form add liquidity to a market and prices are kept to equilibrium by informed participants so although speculating might cause volatility it would be a much more volatile environment without them imo because the normal business activity would still be present.
Time hides Nothing
Quoting st.forex4677
Impressive data analyst by you Cindy...
I am a junior trader looking for some guidance.

I still have 1 lot buy audusd @0617 & 1 lot buy audusd @1.0555 both have protection @0477.

I haven't set the target for both positions.
Do you think that aud will go higher anytime this week? Will it goes to 1.0700?


Thx Cindy can't wait to here any comment from u
Hey St. Forex, thanks for the encouragement. At the risk of disappointing you I should make it clear that you shouldn't take my words as concrete because I made this thread for the sole purpose of motivating myself and others to learn more about this line of thinking. I am just sort of reading a lot of different news articles and trying to summarize what they're saying and then put it into some sort of context. So some of it may be wrong I just want to make that clear and I hope others will correct me if I am. This is how we learn.

In my opinion (caution advised!) the AUD/USD right now is kinda range bound intraday so things seem kinda uncertain. This may provide decent grounds at some point for some people to have a go at the options barrier at 1.0500 if things remain this way. If the commodities markets start making some kinda comeback then the price of gold will push the AUD up against the USD (all things being equal) but for this to happen would need some confidence to come back into the market.

So as things are it seems the Australian information is priced in already and that for this pair to move it will be due to some USD factor before any new Australian factors unless there is some kinda surprising AUS related event (or a come back in commodities). But right now I think the main focus for the pair is on the USD factors which co incide mainly with whats happening in the Eurozone as mentioned before the US dollar index is mostly made up of EUR so if the EUR starts to recover this will probably push the USD down and therefore the AUD will rise against it.

I think the main thing to try and understand is WHY the commodities markets sold off so strongly. I think there is still some confusion in this area going by the sources I've been reading. But I think it mainly relates to risk aversion from the circumstances surrounding the EUR.

Maybe someone else can do better.
Time hides Nothing
Heya paul1 and lumesh,

Interesting discussion on the inherent flow of liquidity through investment vehicles through time - it's otherwise known as intermarket analysis, and can also be an undertone/underlying factor behind the movement of liquidity over longer periods of time.

I'd like to put in my two pips, looking at it in the form of a sequence of events.

Let's begin when interest rates are decreasing. At low interest rates, there is little incentive to hold dollars, especially since inflation will erode the value of the dollar as time passes, and so individuals are incentivized to invest to protect their funds; there is little demand to hold dollars at low interest rates.

From the point of view of bondholders, it makes sense to invest in bonds as interest rates are decreasing to lock in favourable yields with an eye to capitalize on capital appreciation from the bonds.

Equities represent a large medium of investment, and with interest rates decreasing, growth prospects for firms are heightened, as they can more easily finance their operations. So liquidity flows to the equity markets as well, fostering economic activity/growth. As a consequence, the demand for commodities increases, thus putting upwards pressure on the price; we have inflation. The value of the dollar is said to decline since more dollars are needed to purchase the same amount of a commodity.

As the fans of inflation are flamed, without compensatory wage increases etc. costs become prohibitive, and I suppose there is a sort of diminishing return due to inflation. Bondholders are less incentivized to hold bonds, as they would be receiving fixed coupons which are steadily decreasing in value as time progresses. Liquidity will thus flow out of bonds, increasing yields (interest) and flow into hedges against inflation (commodities) fanning inflation even further. In order to avoid a situation where aggregate demand begins to wade, resulting in economic contraction, interest rates are then raised to temper inflation.

This makes it increasing difficult for firms to grow and expand at their current rate, which slowly reduces the demand for commodities, depressing their price. The prospects of the stock market and commodities then begin diminishing, as investors are instead incentivized to either hold cash, or lock in favourable bond yields to receive coupons which are steadily increasing in value, now that inflation has been tempered. The effect of liquidity flowing into bond markets results in yields (interest) decreasing as bond prices appreciate. When inflation has been tempered, in an attempt to restimulate economic activity, interest rates are then lowered, and we are back at square one of the cycle.

This is of course just my simplified model of how the major markets interrelate on a broader scale; it would not explain the deviations witnessed on a day-to-day basis, where other factors may possibly come into play, such as the risk on/risk off model, which relies on bonds being 'safer' investments as opposed to equities and commodities, being riskier ones, and that liquidity flows from one to the other based on market sentiment.

I'd love to here any suggestions/criticisms as it can only further my understanding.

But I now realize that this is only relating kinda vaguely to the thread topic, in that it moves the market over a much longer timeframe. Hope I didn't wander too far off.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Quoting xXTrizzleXx

But I now realize that this is only relating kinda vaguely to the thread topic, in that it moves the market over a much longer timeframe. Hope I didn't wander too far off.

Regards,
xXTrizzleXx
Not at all time frame is irrelevant.
Time hides Nothing
Thankyou for your thoughts about my post .

It works for me .

But,Its not as simple, as i cant explain fully on a forum how i interpret the fundamentals ,just wanted to let traders know what the drivers are .

For example I also dont believe 1000point drop in oil will cause a 1000 point drop in eur/usd .
But if oil moves lower and maintains the level I can personally gaurantee eur/usd Will not rise significantly if oil does stay lower on average.

Further ,Traders I dont want anyone to believe me ,i just ask that you get a chart of oil in relation to dollar value .
The correlations ,negative or positive are never 100% sometimes they are quite low .
There is information if you google "correlation ".
Check out the correlations of my points in my post ,you will find currently oil Is negatively correlated to dollar by about 90% currently.

Priority
1) interest rates
2) oil
3) indices
4)intraday /week statical releases
All i can say is ,research for yourself what effects these are having on your pair.

Whatever your currency of choices economy exports and imports plays a vital role in the value of the currency.

Each person, once you know what to monitor ,do the research and understand why the bigger trend is happening .

I have posted what i use ,Obviously one poster disagrees but thats healthy ,As long as that poster makes money doing the opposite to me its all good .
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • Post #48
  • Quote
  • Edited 6:06am May 17, 2011 5:49am | Edited 6:06am
Very nice post !



Although one must keep in mind the reasons of WHY there's a danger of decreasing rates. Of course, all things being equal a decreasing rate is only stimulative but in times of overheated economy a series of rate decreases will not prevent the collapse of the stock market.



Quoting xXTrizzleXx
Heya paul1 and lumesh,

Interesting discussion on the inherent flow of liquidity through investment vehicles through time - it's otherwise known as intermarket analysis, and can also be an undertone/underlying factor behind the movement of liquidity over longer periods of time.

I'd like to put in my two pips, looking at it in the form of a sequence of events.

Let's begin when interest rates are decreasing. At low interest rates, there is little incentive to hold dollars, especially since inflation will erode the value of the dollar...
Quoting paul1

For example I also dont believe 1000point drop in oil will cause a 1000 point drop in eur/usd .

You misunderstood me. What i meant by that 1000 point comparison was the fact that oil market is way more illiquid than eurusd. Lower liquidity = higher volatility.

I call oil market speculative in nature exactly because it's illiquid (Will explain this further for you, Cindy).

Quoting paul1
But if oil moves lower and maintains the level I can personally gaurantee eur/usd Will not rise significantly if oil does stay lower on average.
Sure, in this theoretical environment, where you know for a fact that oil SHOULD BE lower. But what you can NOT guarantee is whether oil will be LEADING or LAGGING other "related" markets. Oil could be low and eurusd could be high and oil could be very well be the one that is going to reverse to the upside. THAT was what i was trying to say.

Quoting paul1
I have posted what i use ,Obviously one poster disagrees but thats healthy ,As long as that poster makes money doing the opposite to me its all good .
I hope you now understand that i'm not having the mindset to do the opposite. I surely admit the relationship between oil and usd but what i was trying to say is that they are NOT directly tied the way the mainstream thinks. There are fundamental reasons why they should sometimes move in relation and sometimes move apart from each other.
  • Post #50
  • Quote
  • Edited 6:50am May 17, 2011 6:38am | Edited 6:50am
Yes, every economy needs oil and the higher the price of oil the more you have to pay for it thus making any other area in the economy grow slower cause there are less money to buy other things.

Oil market isn't what we would call an efficient market. Supply has been constant and the real demand isn't that much changed either. So, the conclusion is that Oil is a speculators market. That is why you are seeing a 5%-10% movement in a day simply cause there aren't enough liquidity. When did you last see a 1000 point drop (or rise) in eurusd ?


In response ,Oil is settled in dollars for the bulk of transactions ,its value in real hard currency ie physical gold ,hasnt changed much ,overlay a chart of gold to oil ,to see what i mean.
The only thing that has changed is the amount of dollars you need to purchase it .
If your currency is getting stronger against dollar ,when oil moves up in dollar terms = more dollar to buy =dollar weakness.
Other currencies get stronger against the dollar,adding weight to your currencies strength.

Second point :-
Oil $115/barrel when eur/usd 1.4900
oil $95/barrel now eur/usd 1.4050.

i didnt have to go far back for evidence.

Edit : just read your reply ,I feel we generally see it the same ,I agree with your points and i dont use these as anything like tight correlation ,just as a background indicator of the bigger picture.
At least with these in mind we know whether current price action is going with or against the bigger drivers.

I still would only enter based on technicals Higher highs -higher lows ,enter on retrace .
Especially profitable when both my background fundies ,statistical fundies and price action teckies on my chart are all heading the same way .

Great to have a good discussion with traders, unlike the idiots you get on some threads,thankyou so much.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
Quoting CindyXXXX
Firstly I'm glad you could join us Lumesh I hope you stick around... the following isn't an attack on you just discussing the issue you raised becasue I was watching one of the conferences the other day on CNBC and this was one of the main issues..
Thanks. No worries on the attack, will explain this one once more

Quoting CindyXXXX
I don't much like this argument becasue it implies simply that the speculation in oil is by traders alone using the instrument as simple money generating tool (that's how I read it anyway), and therefore traders are to blame for high oil prices which is ridiculous... The main reason for the volatility in oil is due to the speculation in the futures market but a large part of this speculation is from normal business activity simply hedging price risks as you can imagine would be a pretty common risk among businesses worldwide.

First off, speculation doesn't equal "simple money generating tool". If anything then i believe the volatily seen in oil market will make it more harder for you to make money in this market both ways: 1) fundamentally and 2) emotionally....Only if you're really good at understanding the inefficiency (both, fundamental and order flow perspective) are you able to turn that volatility into your favour.
Now, let's talk business hedging. Yes, they hedge price risks RELATIVE to THEIR business activity. Example: Big transport companies are hedging their oil price risk just as much as they buy that oil to conduct their normal everyday businesses. If they constantly need to inventory 10 barrel of petrol a month for their machines then they hedge (SELL) that amount in the financial markets to be protected against price risks. If they didn't hedge then they would be exposed to price risks. If prices rise they benefit by having an inventory that is now worth more but if prices decline the opposite happens. Their business idea is not to be exposed (speculate) but to collect the margings they get from their clients to run their business. Considering that then the price of oil shouldn't change if the REAL demand for oil doesn't change, correct ? Is this the reality ? No. IMO it's impossible that the REAL world demand for oil changes 10% within days, don't you agree? So, we got to this conclusion that someone else must impact the price of oil. But who are they ? They can't be big hedge funds cause oil isn't an asset that draws international capital flows. Oil doesn't give you any return neither is it an appealing asset for the average retail investor cause it's...well, oil. Go ask your local investment bank whether people put their savings into oil.

So, we conclude that the main big players in this environment are business hedgers. And everyone else are speculators. And they are not so called informed traders in this classical meaning. The only informed are business hedgers cause they know the TRUE supply and demand for oil. And the irony is that they are not trading the oil market to directly benefit from it.

Considering all the above you should, compared to currency market, clearly see why oil SHOULD be way more illiquid. And lastly, as a side note, you said: "speculation is from normal business activity simply hedging price risks"....

Speculation and hedging are completely different things.

Quoting CindyXXXX
Perhaps that's what you meant or perhaps I'm wrong but either way its claims like this that end up creating restrictions for retail traders like us. Speculators in whatever form add liquidity to a market and prices are kept to equilibrium by informed participants so although speculating might cause volatility it would be a much more volatile environment without them imo because the normal business activity would still be present.

You can still trade oil can't you ? So, i see no restrictions here.

And finally, you might have misunderstood what causes volatility.

Speculation does NOT cause volatilty by itself. Lack of liquidity CAUSE volatility. That's the case with oil. It's illiquid. AND there are lots of speculators IN THAT illiquid environment to cause large price changes.


that's my 2 cents....
Hi Lumesh thanks for that, I should have thought that one through a bit more.

Cheers - Agree with your points although it would be interesting to see the actual numbers of speculator and hedging interest in Oil Futures.
Time hides Nothing
Quoting grkfx
if you want to figure out why price is doing what it is doing I would recommend this: Keep a daily list of all the 7 major currencies eur, gbp, jpy, chf, aud, nzd, cad, and write down every day why you think price did what it did. Write down everything that you believed generated order flow on that particular day.
When I read the above quote by grkfx, I promised myself that I would follow this advice.

Now that the school semester is over, I am going to study forex market structure, and what really moves price.

Cindyxxxx, thanks for starting this thread. I plan to contribute. But for now, I am going to read, read, and read.
Have to say something about correlations or intermarket analysis topic.

Correlation means nothing in themselves, EU and OIL could move 1000 pips together but does that guarantee us that they will move together even for another 50 pips? NO

What important is at whats the fundamental reason behind two instruments moving together?

Until we have that reason effecting people's decision making, the correlation stays. When that reason has played out the correlation gets broken.

EU falls in time of risk aversion and so does Oil (unless there is an event that directly influences the Demand/Supply of oil).

In times of Growth, Demand of oil will increase and so will price, and if we have IRD on side of EU, it will go up too.

Also OIL is not the driver, It's a gauge.

I hope u get my point.
.
Cindy!

I remember u were doing something about putting historical news figure's into an excel sheet. Any update on that project?

If u have not started than perhaps we can team up with another 2-3 guys to get it done.

one more thing can u guys do separate posts for Orderflow information like Buy -Sell limits, Stops and Option's etc.

Thanks.
.
Quoting nasir.khan
Cindy!

.
Hey Nassir - Yeah I got my sheet done. The problem was whether to use the numbers that come out or the revised "real" numbers that come out later. I am now just recording them as they come out. hm Maybe I will post it here. It's ok but the graphs aren't in the best format, also some countries differ in their econ announcements like some will have new home sales whilst others don't seem to, same with manufacturing
Time hides Nothing
Quoting lumesh
Oil market isn't what we would call an efficient market. Supply has been constant and the real demand isn't that much changed either. So, the conclusion is that Oil is a speculators market. That is why you are seeing a 5%-10% movement in a day simply cause there aren't enough liquidity. When did you last see a 1000 point drop (or rise) in eurusd ?
There seems to be a lot of confusion around the issue of commodities in general, but recent volatile movements in the oil market in particular. Let me just address those issues.

Your statement about supply and demand is incorrect and it seems to me that you're getting your information outdated sources or from some sort of political news website, otherwise you wouldn't be so far off the mark. I'm not making accusations here, I'm just telling you how it looks to a person who reads publications published by trustworthy sources.

First of all, the production of conventional oil peaked in 2006 and has been slowly declining ever since. Overall supply has increased by a little bit but the difference has been made up by oil from unconventional sources. Unconventional sources of oil are more expensive to produce and they will only become available when the price of oil reaches the point at which producing the next marginal barrel of oil becomes economic. There are all sorts of technological and chemical disadvantages to producing unconventional oil which I'm not going to discuss here, but they all serve to make unconventional oil more expensive. The Saudis don't publish their figures, but it has been estimated that producing a barrel of oil in Saudi Arabia costs around $20. Compare that to around $85 for Canadian tar sands (which are actually mined, not pumped out of the ground).

Concrete statistics from IEA:

"In January this year, IEA figures, which are based on an all-liquids definition similar to the BP Stats, showed production at 88.5 mb/d, against 87.8 mb/d in July 2008."

Second of all, you are also wrong about demand. Although supply and demand both fell by a small amount during the recession, demand has been picking up steam. It is also important to note that non-OECD countries now consume more than 50% of the world's oil. Consumption growth in non-OECD countries will continue to outpace growth in OECD countries because the marginal product is much higher in developing economies than it is in developed economies. Think about a farmer replaces his cart with a truck to deliver more produce to the market where there are more buyers for it thus increasing his income by 100% or more. Another example would be a hospital that buys a diesel generator to keep medicine cold thus saving lives and increasing life expectancy. This trend will continue unabated in developing economies until they too hit the wall of diminishing returns. High marginal products and thereby high rates of return on investments are what investors are after when they are looking to invest in underdeveloped economies or small cap stocks.

A recession here and there will undoubtedly decrease demand in the short run but only Krugman lives in the short run. Normal people with healthy brains need to plan for the long run.

Concrete statistics from IEA:

Global oil demand averaged 87.9 million barrels per day in 2010, up 2.9 million barrels or 3.4% year on year. The IEA sees demand growing to around 89.4 million barrels per day in 2011 (+1.6% or +1.4 M barrels a day year on year).

Third, the reason oil and other commodities are behaving the way they do is because they are commodities. There is a reason some people call commodities the 'champagne asset class'. If there are no bubbles in champagne it's not the real thing. There is the constant battle between supply and demand - when demand starts increasing supply struggles to keep up and prices go higher; at some point this then turns into demand destruction as some people switch to another commodity (if they can) or hold back consumption. In a capitalist economy a spike in prices, ceteris paribus, means higher profits. The potential to make big profits brings in more competition. However, if the profit potential is very big you can expect to see the sector with high profit potential pulling away labour, capital and resources from other sectors of the economy. After a while supply increases and unless demand makes up for the difference you can expect to see prices return to the level where they were before the spike (of course you have to figure in inflation and take into account other changes in the marketplace that might have influenced the price).

With commodities there is a constant mismatch between supply and demand due to the time it takes to set up a mine, plant seed or drill a hole in the ground. The prices of things that are not buried underground or don't have to be grown are much more stable because one can draw upon the supply almost immediately.

And if you really think commodities that are traded on the markets are volatile and speculative you should see the chart of onion prices.

Fourth, even though Bernanke is denying it, the Fed's quantitative easing program has inflated the price of most commodities. Currently the Fed is expected to end QE on time and this is de facto monetary tightening.

From UBS:

When the Fed buys treasuries, it lowers yields relative to other risk assets – forcing portfolios to shift up the risk curve. That shift incorporates strong capital flows overseas – which can be seen in the dramatic rise in foreign exchange reserves in recent months. Emerging market authorities tend to print domestic currency to buy dollars, to prevent excessive currency appreciation. This then raises deposits at banks, inducing a lending boom, which in turn is very commodities intense – bullish for commodities, with knock on effects on commodity currencies and speculative flows …

When the Fed ends QE, treasury yields rise relative to other risk assets – making them more attractive, and forcing portfolio shifts back down the risk curve. That induces capital to flow back to the US – directly boosting the dollar. It forces emerging market central banks to retire domestic currency as the dollars exit, leading to stalling bank deposit growth and stalling loan growth. And this in turn triggers a reversal of speculative flows. It also tends to precipitate credit stress among weak credits – who, like in a game of musical chairs, are left standing when cheap credit runs out.

Left unmentioned in the UBS report is the use of excess reserves at the Fed. We all know that banks have kept the funds parked at the Fed earning 0.25% but what we don't know is to what extent are these funds being used as collateral. With financial engineering one wouldn't necessarily have to withdraw these funds to use them as margin so there is no way of telling.

Fifth
Commodity super cycles. I'm not going to explain this here, just google it. The short story here is that in the foreseeable future commodity prices will be swinging up and down but making a higher low every time. The trend is up.


The interest rate cycle xXTrizzleXx talked about is also an important factor. Interpreting price movements without knowing what's going on the the economic cycle and the interest rate cycle is plain foolish.

lumesh,
Please for your own sake pick up a book on microeconomics and a book on macroeconomics. Get the know the basics and you'll be much better off.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
Quoting CindyXXXX
Hey Nassir - Yeah I got my sheet done. The problem was whether to use the numbers that come out or the revised "real" numbers that come out later. I am now just recording them as they come out. hm Maybe I will post it here. It's ok but the graphs aren't in the best format, also some countries differ in their econ announcements like some will have new home sales whilst others don't seem to, same with manufacturing
Would be awesome if u can share it here.
.
Quoting bug
pick up a book on microeconomics and a book on macroeconomics. Get the know the basics and you'll be much better off.
Bug, do you have any recommendations?
Quoting paul1
In response ,Oil is settled in dollars for the bulk of transactions ,its value in real hard currency ie physical gold ,hasnt changed much ,overlay a chart of gold to oil ,to see what i mean.
The only thing that has changed is the amount of dollars you need to purchase it .
Bingo!
This is the story of the 'oil crisis' of the 1970s. Although people like to call it an oil crisis it was really only a dollar crisis. I don't really care what we call it as long as people know what really propelled OPEC countries to increase the price of oil as much as they did. Personally I don't support a gold standard due to its inherent inflexibility but I can appreciate the usefulness of the price of gold as a proxy.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
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