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Monitor for 'Trading Made Simple' system 565 replies

Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

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Trading Made Simple system follower - Thanks to eelfranz 9 replies

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Trading Made Simple

  • #2,581
  • May 14, 2011 4:12pm May 14, 2011 4:12pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Here are some more *extremely unofficial* trading results from another backtest run. Hope you like them.

Pair: EURUSD
TF: H4 (EST)
Time period: Feb-March 2011
Total trades: 36
Winners: 34
Losers: 2
Net pips: +2264

Again, I scrolled through the chart manually one bar at a time using F12 key. I followed the same basic rules as before (see below).

Stochs - this time I hardly paid attention to Stochs, but when I did remember to check they were always pointing in the right direction.

I've added a time column to show which H4 candle...
That's why I prefer testing using the trade simulator, you should see the setup candles as they really appeared when they first formed.
  • #2,582
  • May 14, 2011 4:56pm May 14, 2011 4:56pm
Whats going on? It says there are 173 pages and for some reason I can only click to page 172.....anyone else having the same issue? Thanks......
  • #2,583
  • May 14, 2011 5:02pm May 14, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting go4pips
Whats going on? It says there are 173 pages and for some reason I can only click to page 172.....anyone else having the same issue? Thanks......
Yeep! Me too but I guess were here on 173...go figuer...Have a grat week pipen!
  • #2,584
  • May 14, 2011 5:07pm May 14, 2011 5:07pm
I got lucky on this one by not getting stoped out, or atleast had a exit sig. when I was away. Amost hit my TP before closing before the maket closed.
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  • #2,585
  • Edited 5:32pm May 14, 2011 5:22pm | Edited 5:32pm
Discovered by accident a couple of mouse gestures for navigating charts on MT4.
Right click your mouse left to right downward at 45 degree angle (like it shows in picture) takes you to previous charts you were looking at. And right to left goes the other way in your history. May be useful when switching back and forth between 2 charts. More than that and it gets confusing after a while. I wonder if there are other mouse gestures that work on mt4?

......................
Ooops update. Or, be careful what you ask for.

The letter 'L' gesture deletes the current chart!
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  • #2,586
  • May 14, 2011 6:38pm May 14, 2011 6:38pm
Quoting blutkehlchen
Well first of all congrats to you results , hopefully you can repeat that live

Annyway did you trade with SL to BE after a certain amount or even with partial close , as it was mentioned here before?
Thanks again, but credit goes to Eelfranz! I'm just trying to get lucky by being prepared...

No, i did not move to BE or us SL at all. Just went by the signals to enter and exit.
Quoting blutkehlchen
And i have another Question . I know that no strategy can be perfect , but is that as you can see on the pic entry a correct entry by the rules?

I wouldnt have taken that anyway , in fact i would miss some entries just because i have a mind blocade when it comes to taking trades which look like retracement or countertrend .. But anyway is that setup candle correct, assuming that the next candle was blue too by its opening ?
Yes I would have taken that trade. I checked that date on my chart and the candles are a little different because I'm in EST. The second blue candle has no bottom wick, which is bullish on a HA candle. My Stochs are flat and showing a red line (what does that mean, anyone know?).

That candle opened on my chart at 1.37110. The next candle gave an exit signal. It opened at 1.36983, so I would have lost about 13 pips on that trade.

But the next sell signal came 5 bars later. That candle opened at 1.36843. The trade would have been on for 4 more bars, when the green TDI line went flat for an exit signal. That bar opened at 1.35679, which would have gotten +116 pips. You win some, you lose some! But this method appear to win considerably more than it loses.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,587
  • May 14, 2011 6:47pm May 14, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting 2scoops
That's why I prefer testing using the trade simulator, you should see the setup candles as they really appeared when they first formed.
That's a great point, and I intend to do just that for exactly the same reason. But the sim has its problems, too.

First, it's either too slow or Ludicrous Speed (reference this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post4466121)

Second, you won't catch the opening price of the bar. As soon as the candle opens it moves too fast before you can stop and pause it at the opening price. I actually did a backtest with daily chart using the sim. When I saw a signal I tried to stop the sim quickly, and entered the the trade. I also manually recorded the opening bar price.

When I was finished I compared the sim's report to my records. Both were profitable but the sim was almost 30% higher pips than the manual records. Ok, it was wrong on the good side BUT it shows that it's very clumsy about pinpointing your entry. When I test this in the sim I'm also going to record manual entries and compare the two. This should give the closest picture of reality.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,588
  • May 14, 2011 6:51pm May 14, 2011 6:51pm
Quoting tig07
Discovered by accident a couple of mouse gestures for navigating charts on MT4....
Doesn't work for me, I just get the context menu.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #2,589
  • May 14, 2011 7:07pm May 14, 2011 7:07pm
Quoting 2scoops
That's why I prefer testing using the trade simulator, you should see the setup candles as they really appeared when they first formed.
scoops does this mean that these results are invalid?
  • #2,590
  • Edited 9:32pm May 14, 2011 9:05pm | Edited 9:32pm
Quoting milicentfx
scoops does this mean that these results are invalid?
No offense AlienFrog and I applaud you for sitting down and doing these backtests. Unlike other traders who refuse to read the thread entirely and keep asking the same questions over and over gain. Or ask for the success rate, the SL and TP levels of this strategy. Remember, AF did this back test with already closed H4 candles. We're traders have two traits, which are, FEAR AND GREED. Fear won't let us sit through draw downs and really let profits run. Greed prevents us from taking profits at the optimum points. "It's okay, it will go back" Lost 25 pips of profit. "It's okay, it will retrace" Bang! Back to breakeven. Always take everything in Forex with a grain of salt. If these results were valid, every members on FF are billionaires.
  • #2,591
  • May 14, 2011 9:28pm May 14, 2011 9:28pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Lots of talk about SL today.

Big E on SL: Last week he said doesn't use them at all. That got a ton of attention.

In the original instructions he also said he hates SL trading, but added that if you must use SL place it at the top/bottom of one or two candles back.

This is because he expects 3-5 candles to follow every signal.

Big E on TP: Exit when you get the signal.

That's really all you need to know about SL and TP if you are using the TMS strategy.

Get well soon, Big E! We miss you!
The stop loss conversation was aimed at the one hour chart trades. It is obviously a different trading style needed than the four hour as you are aiming for less pips, so I was wondering how everybody dealt with the hourly trades. My opinion is a stop loss is needed on the lower time frame.
Kumo....most things you say make a lot of sense...thank you for your input, I learn a lot from you.
  • #2,592
  • May 14, 2011 9:29pm May 14, 2011 9:29pm
Quoting fxbr56
Dean, I was able to reproduce the TDI red and green indicator by using the following:

RSI 13 period applied to Typical Price (HLC/3)

Moving Average 3 period shift 3 smoothed applied to RSI indicator

It's not an exact copy, but it's very close.
Thank you very much, I will give it a try, I really appreciate it
  • #2,593
  • May 14, 2011 11:48pm May 14, 2011 11:48pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Here are some more *extremely unofficial* trading results from another backtest run. Hope you like them.
Great results mate! But yes as you and others have pointed out, backtesting and simulators have major draw backs.
Perhaps the only way to truly test a system is to trade it live every week for 3-6+ months? - Using VERY small lots (cents)

What is apparent to me so far is that psychology is the MOST important aspect to master in order to be successful. A trader with no grasp on trading psychology could fail month after month with the world's greatest system. And conversely a trader that has mastered his mind at the charts could turn the worst system profitable.
Obviously we want a great system and a firm mastery of trading psychology in order to get the most from our trading.
  • #2,594
  • May 15, 2011 1:16am May 15, 2011 1:16am
Quoting AlienFrog
That's a great point, and I intend to do just that for exactly the same reason. But the sim has its problems, too.

First, it's either too slow or Ludicrous Speed (reference this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post4466121)

Second, you won't catch the opening price of the bar. As soon as the candle opens it moves too fast before you can stop and pause it at the opening price. I actually did a backtest with daily chart using the sim. When I saw a signal I tried to stop the sim quickly, and entered the the...
Yep I know its not perfect, I don't use it for formal backtesting for those reasons. I just use it to skip back and forth through my charts to look at good setups at roughly the beginning of the setup candle. I like to view what these moves looked like at the beginning, the candle size, TDI angle etc. I like to compare how the good setups looked at inception compared with some failed setups. It just burns the characteristics of a good setup candle into your head.

And yes there's no replacement for the real thing, live trading the method. But at the weekend, trading sims and other manual methods are the best we've got.
  • #2,595
  • May 15, 2011 1:23am May 15, 2011 1:23am
Quoting milicentfx
scoops does this mean that these results are invalid?
see above
  • #2,596
  • May 15, 2011 1:52am May 15, 2011 1:52am
Quoting AlienFrog
Here are some more *extremely unofficial* trading results from another backtest run. Hope you like them.

Editorial: SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHAT I'M DOING WRONG! I just can't believe these results. Seriously, there must be a flaw, I must be doing something wrong, these results are simply too good to be true. I'm racking my brain and going over and over it but I think I'm really following the rules right. Really, I hope I have done it correctly by the rules, but if you see what I'm doing wrong PLEASE PLEASE point it out! I will edit this post with...
I think your quite right to look at these results in disbelief. The devil is in the detail. Simply by seeing that it has yielded a 95% strike rate with over 2000 pips in a calendar month using only 1 currency pair with an average ratio of probably around 1:1, if not better... AND your only trading once every 4 hours - Thats what we call the holy grail.

So I think you will find your skepticism is well founded once you try it in a live environment. One can only wish for this kind of blissful trading!
  • #2,597
  • May 15, 2011 2:19am May 15, 2011 2:19am
Quoting AlienFrog
Thanks again, but credit goes to Eelfranz! I'm just trying to get lucky by being prepared...

No, i did not move to BE or us SL at all. Just went by the signals to enter and exit.
Yes I would have taken that trade. I checked that date on my chart and the candles are a little different because I'm in EST. The second blue candle has no bottom wick, which is bullish on a HA candle. My Stochs are flat and showing a red line (what does that mean, anyone know?).

That candle opened on my chart at 1.37110. The next candle gave an exit signal. It opened...

Thanks for your answer , but i cant see how you could made made money out of the next trade , thats no critic i just want to make sure i understand it all correct

So it would be nice if someone comment on this
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  • #2,598
  • May 15, 2011 3:48am May 15, 2011 3:48am
Hi eelfranz,

Thanks for your effort and simplicity in sharing your money making machine with those who may care like me. With this your method i can vividly say " YES I CAN MAKE IT IN FOREX WORLD" after loosing $100k's within the past one year.

From opening of today market, i will start applying it on demo.

Finally, let also appreciate friends out there in the forum who has contributed immensely for the modification of this trading system.

My Regards to all!

nhilkiah
  • #2,599
  • May 15, 2011 3:53am May 15, 2011 3:53am
I can't quite tell on your chart but was stoch in agreement with the direction of the TDI on the second bounce trade?

If it wasn't then no trade (for me). If it was a valid setup, then we accept the occasional loss/BE trade.
  • #2,600
  • May 15, 2011 4:44am May 15, 2011 4:44am
Quoting 2scoops
I can't quite tell on your chart but was stoch in agreement with the direction of the TDI on the second bounce trade?

If it wasn't then no trade (for me). If it was a valid setup, then we accept the occasional loss/BE trade.

Right the Stoch was flat ,undecided .. so taking that rebounce trade would have been my fault, and not taking it would cut the loss for sure , but nevertheless i dont see , how you could make money out of the last three trades or even very little losses , as it was stated above.
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