Cable Update (GBPUSD) | Page 13958 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Cable Update - Continued 118 replies

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies

Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
Exit Attachments

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #279,141
  • May 13, 2011 2:00pm May 13, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting redbeben
iftyyyyyyy you're back
I missed you here mate
hope all good for you and you keep on trading
Slowly crawling back bro. Got a few property projects on atm so cannot trade fully. I am popping in at certain times during the day. Glad to see you doing well. Have a nice weekend all.
You've got to be IN IT to WIN IT!
  • #279,142
  • May 13, 2011 5:44pm May 13, 2011 5:44pm
Quoting Ifty
Slowly crawling back bro. Got a few property projects on atm so cannot trade fully. I am popping in at certain times during the day. Glad to see you doing well. Have a nice weekend all.
You too Ifty and Redbe and all. X
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #279,143
  • May 13, 2011 5:52pm May 13, 2011 5:52pm
hello all
today i took a day off
need to rest from trading a bit.

my brain started working.
so....
why dollar going stronger?
why the reason? who can answer? end of QE2..?! i dont trust what is told out there, about risk on, risk off, qe2, qe3 etc.....

i think is only a technical reason. some one is going out of commodities markets, out from euros, out from a lot of things. and what do they do: they buy usdollars? based on what fundamental thing?
we are near something big, i can feel it.

sounds like some one putting fuel on the fire.
everything will burn.

my advice is:
never get a position quickly without putting stoploss thinking something like.... 'first thing i get the position, to pick the pip, and after i set stops n targets' ....you never know when markets goes crazy!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #279,144
  • May 13, 2011 8:52pm May 13, 2011 8:52pm
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all
today i took a day off
need to rest from trading a bit.

my brain started working.
so....
why dollar going stronger?
why the reason? who can answer? end of QE2..?! i dont trust what is told out there, about risk on, risk off, qe2, qe3 etc.....

i think is only a technical reason. some one is going out of commodities markets, out from euros, out from a lot of things. and what do they do: they buy usdollars? based on what fundamental thing?
we are near something big, i can feel it.

sounds like some one putting fuel on the...
as I expected this month will be a bearish month. and I think next month GU will be bullish month ( expecting the BOE interest rate hike) BUY DIP
{Promotion Removed}
  • #279,145
  • May 13, 2011 10:12pm May 13, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all
today i took a day off
need to rest from trading a bit.

my brain started working.
so....
why dollar going stronger?
why the reason? who can answer? end of QE2..?! i dont trust what is told out there, about risk on, risk off, qe2, qe3 etc.....

i think is only a technical reason. some one is going out of commodities markets, out from euros, out from a lot of things. and what do they do: they buy usdollars? based on what fundamental thing?
we are near something big, i can feel it.

sounds like some one putting fuel on the fire.
everything...
I see you are around for quite some time here, you should already know how the market is being operated. for example Players with 20,000 lots or more raised euro til 1.49, now to earn the money they need to off load their position. if they hold it, they can not realize the profit. at the same time, they can not off load the whole thing, the market will simply crash. they can not do it. they off load after dropping 200 pips and buy back all the stops and rise again. in this process they buy less and sell more. this is a currency conversion game, once euro is offloaded, it has to be converted to USD. it is always the case. so US economy has nothing to do with it. If you analysis QE and all other crap, you will be trapped. News is the trigger only, the acutal news outcome barely has any consequences. I recommend all the traders to learn the market dynamics rather than fancy charts and fundamental analysis. Never never try to corelate with another market like commodity or stock market. Sometime it works and sometimes it wont, players make it appear as if it is corelated to trap the small trader. Remember one things, big player make money when you are stopped out or force close loosing position, there is no other theory behind it. it is as simple as that.
  • #279,146
  • May 13, 2011 10:16pm May 13, 2011 10:16pm
Weekly

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image10.png Size: 66 KB


Daily


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image11.png Size: 61 KB
  • #279,147
  • May 14, 2011 12:39am May 14, 2011 12:39am
For this pair, technical wins hands down. News and rumours are simply bullshit to justify technical moves. Countries and currencies do not collapse like a company can, USA, Britain or Mexico are not going to simply vanish. If news consistently was at odds with currencies movements, then it would prove technical analysis was all that was needed to win at this game, rather than the random chaotic nature they would have you believe. It is quite a simple game once studied and trading does not need to be stressful. Once this pair has a target in its sights it always gets its pips.
For now, I would bet my left testicle we reach the daily 200ema sitting at the daily 50% retrace and right at the highs of August last year. It could continue to 158 and even 153.50. Then, if I still have my manhood, I would put my other testicle on a rise to the monthly 200ema.
  • #279,148
  • May 14, 2011 12:50am May 14, 2011 12:50am
There is risk aversion going on in the markets creating dollar strength. a very mini GFC
  • #279,149
  • May 14, 2011 1:13am May 14, 2011 1:13am
Quoting Shakeout
Of course, charts don't lie, an news is late to retail traders, so I don't pay much attention. The market as we know doesn't move in straight lines. An I don't believe u get 500 pip moves just to reach a ema for example imo. More than meets the eye. Cud be a sharp retracement so SM can accumulate more longs a better price, this down move could be for real, who knows. the market isn't obvious, expect the unexpected.
During the full month of August last year, all the US news was just crap and it created 1-2 hour spikes up.Yet it fought and fought its way down to the daily 200ema or weekly 55ema sitting right on the 38% retrace, before hedge funds came in and bought up big time. These harmonic moves are very powerful with this pair and the Euro. US has no debt exit strategy and there is no reason to be buying US dollars, yet they are. It won't last long and I agree, we need to expect the unexpected, but this pair can be quite predictable.
  • #279,150
  • May 14, 2011 1:28am May 14, 2011 1:28am
We may even be heading for a weekly head and shoulders pattern terminating at around 15350.
  • #279,151
  • May 14, 2011 2:11am May 14, 2011 2:11am
Sorry Shakeout, I can be quite forthright when it comes to trading which will hopefully settle down now that I have given up coffee this past week. Coffee, trading and me at the same time has cost me a lot of money in the past and I will have broader vision from now on.

I will settle down and take what the market gives me, but I will continue with input at a lower tone.
  • #279,152
  • May 14, 2011 3:36am May 14, 2011 3:36am
still a lot of down momentum
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: still alot of down momentum.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #279,153
  • May 14, 2011 4:08am May 14, 2011 4:08am
4 hour chart, its a train
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: still alot of down momentum 4 hour chart.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #279,154
  • May 14, 2011 4:11am May 14, 2011 4:11am
Quoting Shakeout
Going by your opinion an indicators for sure. Cud drop like a bomb next week.. Like I said I cudnt care less.. I trade either way. But I stopped using lagging indicators a while ago. Gets u in late.. Exits to early. I use vsa. An look for reactions at fib numbers an s+r. Reactions to where volume was high at a certain price. That gives me a small indication into what smart money are doing.. An imo that's all I need. Indicators don't show me much.. Oversold overbought ? It can stay over solld for months yet still move down further. Each to their...
What is VSA and IMO?
  • #279,155
  • May 14, 2011 4:21am May 14, 2011 4:21am
I'm shorting at 6225 Monday looking for 6020
  • #279,156
  • May 14, 2011 1:48pm May 14, 2011 1:48pm
Quoting mdrive
I see you are around for quite some time here, you should already know how the....................

hello,
about correlation between currencies n commodities i can say they are correlated coz weaker dollar causes higher commodities prices (xau.usd - xag.usd etc...), and higher than usual euro, aud and other currencies also called 'commodities currencies'. but correlation is not 1:1.

what i mean is:
euro exausted his power due to rates increase loosing the 41 area yesterday, gbp is in reversal since 67 area, aud touched highest prices ever, without talking about gold, oil, silver, cotton etc. all these have been overbought by all invetors around the world.
now all these investors, big small etc, are going out of strong buys there.

usdx went near that FE100 coming from a strong downtrend.
after a consolidation came back up. but main gain has done on commodities for me, mostly due to the going out of them by big investors.
now usdx is going near that white trendline downward.
i think and hope, for seeing it above that line, it need a strong reason. or more than one.
is it enough all this scenario to boost the usdollar in uptrend ? sincerely i think it is not. we can add that once or the other jpy could go weaker but since yesterday it is not doing (...)
dollar is not substained by a stronger usa economy. the only thing is Fed saying they won't start QE3.
if it keep going up without clear direct reason, once or the other will implode and go test lowest levels perhaps new lowest nobody will stop it.

this is only a thinking, we will see what will happen next 2-3 weeks, and sincerely im day trader or better hourly trader. but i need to know what is happening around there.

momentum will touch downward red line, also price in white line.
can need 1-4 weeks.
meanwhile price testing first red line. then there is second. then is the white which tell weekly uptrend/downtrend.
magic range will be 77-78. time will be the key.
also possible a contraction again near 74.00 or 73 area until below 75.84
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdxw1.jpg Size: 114 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #279,157
  • May 14, 2011 2:27pm May 14, 2011 2:27pm
Hi all

Just wanted to add my tuppence-worth on trading psychology while the markets are closed. I was reading the very interesting article “Mark Douglas and The Disciplined Trader by Thom Hartle” very kindly distributed by IC Chong. How true what he says about having the right mental attitude. So true that a good “belief system” is far more important then a good trading system.
I had 4 trading accounts and blew them all, in fact blew most of my savings before I realised the cold truth. It wasn't my trading system (and I tried just about all of them!) but my state of mind that was the problem – in the heat of battle it's so easy to lose your head! As Mark Douglas says: Fear dibilitates us and damages our normal sense of perception. I would go as far to say that fear , greed, and trying to “get back at the market” after a loss (overtrading, especially bad or dicey set-ups) can destroy one completely as a trader!!
This is the vitally important thing that he says: As traders, if you want to make the most money, you have to create consistency. And the best way to create consistency is to control the process of perception and interpretation so that you operate out of an objective frame of mind and as carefree a state of mind as possible. Carefree in the sense that one is relaxed. Because a mind that’s not relaxed can’t stay focused, you get distracted and make errors. And errors are very costly, especially for traders.
I think that this can be illustrated by trading any “demo” account. I can open a demo account on Monday morning with $1000 deposit and I promise you that by Tuesday evening I'll probably have at least $3000 in that account. If I opened a live account with the same amount why does it not result in the same outcome? What's the difference? One word – FEAR

The other thing that I wanted to share with you is a trading truth: GO WITH THE FLOW!
What's that? Well so many retail traders fall into the same trap – trying to call the bottom (or top) that is - trying to buy in a downtrend or trying to sell in an uptrend! For instance, just look at the daily GBPUSD chart for the last 10 days. You don't have to be be rocket scientist to see that we're in a downtrend so why initiate any buy trades, especially if you're a relatively inexperienced trader? It's suicide - “kamikaze”!! To further illustrate – if you sold at 16530 on 4th May, the price temporarily might have gone against you but you're going to win. However if you bought at 16530 - after 10.00am on 5th you will never aee that level again!
What I do is sell only when the 1 hour vegas tunnel is ABOVE the price action and only buy when price action is BELOW the 1 hour tunnel. (please see attached image)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 1 hour vegas.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #279,158
  • May 14, 2011 2:35pm May 14, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting jmtini
Hi all

Just wanted to add my tuppence-worth on trading psychology while the markets are closed. I .......................

hello
i 100% agree with you also read that great book.
anyway a trader must know where are extreme leves where a trend can at least stop n give good pullbacks.
6150 was good one.
next good one is 6110 and whole 60 area.
as daily trader if i see price there, and see good reasons on fast TF to buy it i won't forget to let 30% position tgt open.
from extreme levels we can buy the pullbacks n put stops @BE +10
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #279,159
  • May 14, 2011 2:59pm May 14, 2011 2:59pm
Dear BBKing

Thanks, yes of course you can trade retracements. It's just all law of probabilities. After bad experiences I try now to trade with as much in my favour as possible! Talking of retracements, a nice trading system is to trade retracement breakouts. Please see attached image (30 min chart). Only trade breakout of retracement trendline (in black) TP is low of first bar before retracement and SL is just above last retracement bar. You can of course use 30 min, 15 min or 5 min chart and any volatile trading pair!

Rgds

Jerry
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd breakout system.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #279,160
  • Edited 3:20pm May 14, 2011 3:10pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting Shakeout
Sorry VSA - Volume spread analysis. IMO - in my opinion

Agreed 4hr looks slightly bearish, but notice the close well off the lows on that 2nd to last candle.
Just got back from a party with Cranium and a few beers. The daily MACD (red and blue lines) looks like an extreme theme park water slide, it has crossed the midline, well seperated, there is no divergence and we have just broken through (and closed) below the 38% daily retrace. Whenever the GU breaks through a significant fib/support/resistance level, if you analyse a lower timeframe or two you will NEARLY always see a retest. That is what is happening here. The daily has closed below the 38 retrace which along with the momentum, indicates further down movement. The GU likes the golden ratio like I like bacon, you could almost map the universe by it. A 61.8 retrace takes us exactly back what I belive is now support on the hour timeframe. I will sell at 50% retrace to help ensure I get in. If I am wrong and it shoots for the moon, at least I will still have my right testicle and my wife is already pregnant so not all is lost.
204 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
munlee