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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #24,001
  • May 3, 2011 3:59am May 3, 2011 3:59am
Quoting hotwheelzzz
Now when does the yen show some weakness?
Well that's the big question we all want answered isn't it? It could get worse before it gets better I suppose. When the shit really hits the fan in EZ regarding defaults/restructuring bailouts etc etc, that's when we should see some fireworks. The punters will abandon the Euro but the greenback won't benefit.....Gold. Silver, Swissy and Yen will 'benefit', although I'm certain that the Swiss and the Japanese will be tearing their hair out by then.

There is also talk of QE 3 coming after June.....and while it is only talk (as far as I'm aware), it is further damaging to those currencies and metals. The only hope for the Yen is that QE 3 never happens. I don't see anything much else weaken the Yen before then.

Of course if QE 3 does happen, man, what a mess that will make.......I doubt that it will happen because it would be grossly irresponsible, but hell.....why would Ben worry about that!!!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,002
  • May 3, 2011 4:29am May 3, 2011 4:29am
what is QE1 , QE2 ??

Quoting realjumper
Well that's the big question we all want answered isn't it? It could get worse before it gets better I suppose. When the shit really hits the fan in EZ regarding defaults/restructuring bailouts etc etc, that's when we should see some fireworks. The punters will abandon the Euro but the greenback won't benefit.....Gold. Silver, Swissy and Yen will 'benefit', although I'm certain that the Swiss and the Japanese will be tearing their hair out by then.

There is also talk of QE 3 coming after June.....and while it is only talk (as far as I'm aware),...
  • #24,003
  • May 3, 2011 4:33am May 3, 2011 4:33am
Quoting tankokjian
what is QE1 , QE2 ??
Quantitative Easing 1 and Quantitative Easing 2.......which is due to end in June
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,004
  • Edited 9:40am May 3, 2011 9:10am | Edited 9:40am
maybe the news help price push though the 80.82. long for me, indecisive market.

http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z400/hyip1/1.gif
http://i1187.photobucket.com/albums/z400/hyip1/2.gif
  • #24,005
  • May 3, 2011 8:01pm May 3, 2011 8:01pm
Quoting realjumper
Interesting points......Let me take it one step further. We know how much it pisses America off that China undervalues it's currency. we also know that China doesn't give a damn about that....they even went so far as to warn Obama not so long a go, to not get into a currency war with it, because America will lose......and China is quite correct and Obama knows it.
Let me take it a little further! The strength of the AUD undermines the deliberate weakening of the Yuan...China is now at a crossroads, they are by far the largest buyer of raw materials from Australia, with the strength of the AUD, these resources have become prohibitively expensive...but China are reliant on the supply of these goods...so what does it do?

Keep the Yuan weak for the exports or strenghten for the imports? My guess is that they're going to allow the Yuan to strengthen, they really have no choice, their export market has been decimated, Americans and Europeans are buying less of everything, and with rising costs, the local populace are growing unsettled.

I really wish there was a market to freely trade the Yuan like other major currencies, but unfortunately, not yet!
  • #24,006
  • May 3, 2011 8:06pm May 3, 2011 8:06pm
Quoting hotwheelzzz
This may be rather simplistic but I have no idea fundimentally how the yen could show ANY strength against the dollar.
I agree, last year the word on the street for the strength of the yen was, "the yen carry trade". Basically, borrowers of the yen were repaying their debt, hence the buying of Yen...but now?

But as to trading, I've long given up on basing it on fundamentals, I've found that I trade better in isolation, I only watch Reuters, Bloomberg or CNBC when I'm away from my computer screen, so I can't "trade on news"! Because usually, the markets have already reacted long before the news is broadcast!

I find it better to trust and understand your own analysis than let it get diluted by noise.
  • #24,007
  • May 3, 2011 9:21pm May 3, 2011 9:21pm
u can trade futures. leave the fundamentals alone , you might be right but there are too many events for u to take note of. trust the chart not the ears. news traders are the ones who linger at the wall street not someone behind the screen.


Quoting geoffl
Let me take it a little further! The strength of the AUD undermines the deliberate weakening of the Yuan...China is now at a crossroads, they are by far the largest buyer of raw materials from Australia, with the strength of the AUD, these resources have become prohibitively expensive...but China are reliant on the supply of these goods...so what does it do?

Keep the Yuan weak for the exports or strenghten for the imports? My guess is that they're going to allow the Yuan to strengthen, they really have no choice, their export market has been...
  • #24,008
  • May 3, 2011 9:36pm May 3, 2011 9:36pm
Quoting tankokjian
trust the chart
Out of all the pairs out there the USD/JPY is a chartists dream. It can be uncanny at times.
  • #24,009
  • May 3, 2011 11:23pm May 3, 2011 11:23pm
Quoting geoffl
I find it better to trust and understand your own analysis than let it get diluted by noise.
Same....what I wrote above is just my thoughts.....and they could wll be the thoughts of a 'fundamentally challenged' person!!

My trading is not based on those thoughts.....it is based solely on the charts....no exceptions!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #24,010
  • May 3, 2011 11:36pm May 3, 2011 11:36pm
I;m Long and down but not much.

Small position which leaves me a lot of room to work with.
  • #24,011
  • May 4, 2011 2:29am May 4, 2011 2:29am
When QE2 comes to an end the dollar will strengthen I'm sure, that will happen next month, there will also be a lot of speculators before then, please correct me if I'm wrong. I would prefer a long but will wait for a buy signal, Yen wont go much lower for fear of G7 intervention.
I'm watching this currency so closely I'm using windows magnifier
  • #24,012
  • May 4, 2011 3:01am May 4, 2011 3:01am
Get out of my head! LOL

What is THE biggest factor for currency price? Interest rates. Using QE the feds have been able to hammer down rates anytime speculators or economic datapoints would normally caused a rate increase. This has obviously lead to a VERY safe enviroment to sell the dollar. No fear that rates might rise while you are short.

I dont think rates are going to skyrocket next month, Bernanke has already squished that with his "foeseeable future" or something like that he said... but now with strong US economic data points or inflation data you could see speculators slowly bidding up rates and as you said the end of the dollar drop.

The dollar drop has been so long, consistant, and reliable I wonder how many are going to be suprised. The way most talk the dollar is "dead"... sigh. When my barber starts telling me how the dollar is dead you KNOW the turn is nigh. Personally I think there is one last "blow out" on the dollar. Then we will see what most think is "just a correction" that will catch a lot off guard how the dollar somehow is back lol

When the US rates do start to rise I personally see LOTS of investors shifting from dollar short to yen short and its many crosses. With BOJ rates staying low and dollars rates rising its just inevitable... this is why I am keenly watching the yen. I see a shift starting soon and growing stronger over the next several years.

If you trade currency long enough you know what goes up must come down... or vice versa.

Anyway any opinions on where the near term bottom is?
  • #24,013
  • May 4, 2011 5:35am May 4, 2011 5:35am
r2 here i comeeeeeee ... bulls chargeeeee
  • #24,014
  • May 4, 2011 7:20am May 4, 2011 7:20am
can anyone tell me what trigger the dip ??
  • #24,015
  • May 4, 2011 7:40am May 4, 2011 7:40am
Quoting tankokjian
can anyone tell me what trigger the dip ??
http://www.forexcrunch.com/weak-adp-...eurusd-higher/

You get this info from here (or similar):
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
  • #24,016
  • May 4, 2011 9:15am May 4, 2011 9:15am
what happened on jpy ?
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #24,017
  • May 4, 2011 9:46am May 4, 2011 9:46am
to adaquate follow through on its agenda. ??? The intervention started things in their direction. I guess they cant handle even a litttle babysitting to insure things continue. Much further and this shifts from a corrrection to countinuation of downtrend on USD/YEN and making it that much harder to for BOJ turn around again. Speculators have been pushing this area for days and if japan isnt even gonna say a word here traders are going to realize it safe to push to march lows or lower. Its just really weird. They were so desperate to blunt the rise in their currency. Now they cant even issue a few words from the BOJ?
  • #24,018
  • May 4, 2011 10:28am May 4, 2011 10:28am
AUD really getting hit. Dollar showing moderate to strong againts most curriencies. Yet the yen is showing strength against dollar, a currency that it is fundamentally weaker than. Dollar weakness = yen strength. Dollar strength = yen strength. Currency trading somtimes is baffling. LOL
Everything fundamentally and technically says this pair should rise here... yet she fails. i so want to take long but wont until she show a little bit of hutzpah lol
  • #24,019
  • May 4, 2011 4:42pm May 4, 2011 4:42pm
I have not really understood any of the yen strength lately.

Fundamentally the yen is in worse shape than the USD. This is difficult to accomplish but the debt in Japan is worse, the problems have been around longer and the recent earthquakes, tsunamis and nuclear disasters could not have helped.

So why is the yen strengthening? It is not that long ago that the yen was around 100 and have not really understood how UJ has gone under 90 and stayed there.
  • #24,020
  • May 4, 2011 6:51pm May 4, 2011 6:51pm
Quoting geniusztc
what happened on jpy ?
Japan is still having her holiday today (Golden week).
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