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  • #1,581
  • Apr 27, 2011 8:28am Apr 27, 2011 8:28am
Quoting ruffryders
I think GBP USD is about to break out, however after setting aside 5K in losses earlier on GBP USD trying to go long from recent high I'd rather stay on sidelines and wait for a clean signal closer to the news time.
I think it is a good idea to wait for an entry you are emotionally comfortable with. That will help to protect your trading equity.

By the way, do you usually wait for the news to play out then enter or just trade your clean signals. Not asking with any special purpose in mind...just heard of some traders who don't pay attention to news releases. I've seen good setups play out regardless...some took the scenic route, but got there all the same.

All the best,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,582
  • Apr 27, 2011 8:38am Apr 27, 2011 8:38am
Ok, according to the intel I got on the wire from fellow traders, cable resisting
in the following area:


1,6558
1,6597

Once we pass that next resistance is seen at


1,6626
1,6678


So that kinda leaves me with only option of waiting until we clear 6607 at least to initiate a small-lot LONG trade.

FX4newbies, I think it's best to enter prior to news release if you got good techincal confluence (fibs + forks / forks + neural net, etc), however I do agree with you completely that prior to a major news release like for instance today, it's best to remain on the sideline and have a scenario for both upside/downside and then use discretion.
  • #1,583
  • Apr 27, 2011 8:53am Apr 27, 2011 8:53am
Quoting FX4Newbies
I don't expect things to be too different with the US interest rate and related comments today. So, then the trend should continue if nothing happens to change it.

A note on Silver...Interesting price level around 46.50 or so...a critical level. Sellers were there before.

FX4
EDIT: Note on Silver...46.20 to 46.50 area.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,584
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:05am Apr 27, 2011 9:05am
FX4Newbies, I calculated levels for silver via my neural net, they probably should be good until rest of the week. on upside they are 4680 and 4820 and downside is 4390 and 4250. We are currently floating at the so-called balance, so nothing is decided yet.

I would suspect that we need to trigger 4390 in order to confirm bullish outlook for the near term, however break below 4250 will indicate furhter downside initially capped by the round number 4000.

I would say anything in between 4390-4680 is generally neutral. only triggering 4390 and strong reversal will indicate upside at 4680. Therefore for now I'd recommend to remain on sidelines.
  • #1,585
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:09am Apr 27, 2011 9:09am
Here's the visual aid on XAGUSD H1.

http://img713.imageshack.us/img713/6...il27th2011.png
  • #1,586
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:14am Apr 27, 2011 9:14am
Quoting ruffryders
FX4Newbies, I calculated levels for silver via my neural net, they probably should be good until rest of the week. on upside they are 4680 and 4820 and downside is 4390 and 4250. We are currently floating at the so-called balance, so nothing is decided yet.

I would suspect that we need to trigger 4390 in order to confirm bullish outlook for the near term, however break below 4250 will indicate furhter downside initially capped by the round number 4000.

I would say anything in between 4390-4680 is generally neutral. only triggering 4390 and strong...
Funny you should mention that we are "floating at the so-called balance"...Price outside both forks. Sometimes, depending on how the context appears, I call this the Bermuda Triangle.

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xag-usd apr 27-11.gif Size: 19 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,587
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:16am Apr 27, 2011 9:16am
wow crude is crashing, god damn, and crashing fast!
  • #1,588
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:18am Apr 27, 2011 9:18am
Quoting ruffryders
wow crude is crashing, god damn, and crashing fast!
Hope you're not long crude.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,589
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:28am Apr 27, 2011 9:28am
Yeah the bermuda or the balance, Im doing analysis on light sweet now see what that does, since crude crashing will kinds spoil my plans to go long on XAU USD today.

No way I will be long on crude oil, it's insance there now.
  • #1,590
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:31am Apr 27, 2011 9:31am
Quoting ruffryders
Yeah the bermuda or the balance, Im doing analysis on light sweet now see what that does, since crude crashing will kinds spoil my plans to go long on XAU USD today.

No way I will be long on crude oil, it's insane there now.
UsdCad just took off confirming the crude falling. Seems like its best to trade close to the moment in these times, or be very flexible with plans.

Btw, EU showing bearish sentiment on H4 now. Don't know when it would kick in for real, but something's cookin'.

FX4

P.S. Bulls still wrestling with this one (EU).
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,591
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:37am Apr 27, 2011 9:37am
FX4Newbies you are reading my mind actually. I might position both ways before the news release, since I can confirm that EUR USD is looking mean.

Crude oil and it's drastic effect on XAU USD could pull gold lower towards 1485 area, which would have an immediate reaction across the board on currencies.

BTW, FYI, here's a 30M light sweet chart, are we coming to do a classic text-book example of ML retouch?

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/4...27april201.png
  • #1,592
  • Apr 27, 2011 9:40am Apr 27, 2011 9:40am
Quoting ruffryders
FX4Newbies you are reading my mind actually. I might position both ways before the news release, since I can confirm that EUR USD is looking mean.

Crude oil and it's drastic effect on XAU USD could pull gold lower towards 1485 area, which would have an immediate reaction across the board on currencies.

BTW, FYI, here's a 30M light sweet chart, are we coming to do a classic text-book example of ML retouch?

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/4...27april201.png
Textbook retouch on ML? Hmm...would be nice. Can't see all your pivots but Pivot 2...yellow fork not exactly on point. Not sure what you are working on there.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,593
  • Apr 27, 2011 2:53pm Apr 27, 2011 2:53pm
Quick update:

Here are 4 targets on cable for the upside termination:


6647.9686
6698.9903
6762.0000
6855.0769

I would recommend to buy dippers and watch the printed levels for rejection, uptrend is full on and tanking, unless we get terminated across the board on precious metals, which is pretty much unlikely mid-term.
  • #1,594
  • Apr 27, 2011 2:58pm Apr 27, 2011 2:58pm
on EUR USD four targets based on latest swing, two targets met already, let's see how it goes with the remaining targets.


4631.13
4743.38
4882.00
5086.77
  • #1,595
  • Apr 28, 2011 5:28am Apr 28, 2011 5:28am
Have to be out today. Will check in when I return. EU selling off some. Will see if it finds support at the teal U-MLH...if not at a WL before it gets there. Referring to earlier chart.

Trade well,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,596
  • Apr 29, 2011 6:06am Apr 29, 2011 6:06am
Well, here we are. Price still in an uptrend but at resistance on H4 (second chart) and a little room to the WL on H1. Could get a pop. If no sellers then price could keep going. A Doji on H4 now...indecision. Tell needed.

Take care,

FX4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd apr 29-11h1.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd apr 29-11h4.gif Size: 25 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,597
  • Apr 30, 2011 8:19pm Apr 30, 2011 8:19pm
Just letting newer readers know that the weekly wrap up of the 10 pairs and metals I follow on the blog are now posted.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,598
  • May 2, 2011 6:39am May 2, 2011 6:39am
Good Monday Morning traders,

EU still trying to push higher. Approaching a potential area of resistance: Blue HL. If it can clear it, then the WL could be the next target. Let's see what the morning would bring.

Take care,

FX4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd may 2-11.gif Size: 18 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,599
  • Edited 8:41am May 3, 2011 8:17am | Edited 8:41am
Good Morning traders,

I think these charts say it all. The last chart is H4.

Take care,

FX4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd may 3-11.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd may 3-11-2-2.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd may 3-11-3.gif Size: 25 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,600
  • May 4, 2011 7:25am May 4, 2011 7:25am
Hello again,

Seems to be some room on H4 to go higher still, but H1 has an area of resistance standing in the way. Tread cautiously.

FX4
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd may 4-11.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd may 4-11-2.gif Size: 28 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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