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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #277,621
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:14am Apr 27, 2011 6:14am
Quoting wormboy
Or just wait for it to properly turn before selling.
Good day to you,

Now there's a revolutionary thought!

So True. So True.

Very wise words...

Regards to you
  • #277,622
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:18am Apr 27, 2011 6:18am
bull flag towards demand zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu311.png Size: 41 KB
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -15.9%
  • #277,623
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:21am Apr 27, 2011 6:21am
Quoting PhAnTi'
ok egkid wins anyway
LOL, How r u bro? Hope all is good.
  • #277,624
  • Edited 6:40am Apr 27, 2011 6:23am | Edited 6:40am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Indeed GU seems bullish for now. So seems EU .
BUT as we can see dollar is clearly signaling a pullback. EG is used as a medium to manipulate as usual. We have FOMC today and more news tomm and friday when the toilet paper factory (dollar) owner Ben speak but as we have seen in the past. We get moves sometimes later in the day when all goes as expected by the market i.e no dollar positive effects etc. For EU 46600 holds the key for intraday trading, break below signals a sell. Break and close below 4640 signals long term sell. Having said that, EU is very transparent when it comes to sell.. doesn't gives you much warning just keeps going down

And money gets transferred to the pound for that time, this week it has been transfered to Euro. So watch EG and pound rather



Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

What concerns me a bit, is that EU is set up for a sell ( for the first time on my long term chart since Feb) - one would expect GU to be similar in setup, but it's not. So I am a bit confused as to which one to make my decision on.

I am leaving GU for now. I do have a short entry on EU @ 1.4684 - but I think I was too early. But targetting 300. This I want to leave for a week.

Eur/Jpy is also close to a sell setup in my opinion - another 30 to 50 pips or so.

That's the story.

Regards
  • #277,625
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:25am Apr 27, 2011 6:25am
Quoting egkid
LOL, How r u bro? Hope all is good.
doin pretty cool.
will trade for a living by end of 2013.

So two more years of swing trading (dont have more time until october 2013) and then ill switch to intraday and scalping as well.

and become wealthy before ill turn 30

thats the plan...as u know ...plan the trade and trade the plan


hope egypt is ok again.

kind regards
Jonas
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #277,626
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:32am Apr 27, 2011 6:32am
After one hour from now we have Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
on Dollar The forecast result is 1.7% if this result is achieved ,,,,, Can we Buy Dollar or not?????
  • #277,627
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:38am Apr 27, 2011 6:38am
GJ - shooting star on 30 min chart??
  • #277,628
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:45am Apr 27, 2011 6:45am
Quoting redbeben
ok now now

let's all calm down a bit

I have 50% confirmation

last TP would be 120 pips under 135 level

OMG that's gonna be 163.80

then up 60 pips

second 50% needs to be confirmed at 165.05 level

then I'm in for the big sell

levels and pips might change in time .....as the future is still unfolding.I said already I cannot see the future or have a cristall ball.I just trade what I see

GJ still not even 50% as I mentioned earlier it will take longer than GU to have a clear view...but it seems we will have the 50% as well on this one...
50% confirmation on GJ happened
now i wait for 135.39 to be broken in the next 45 min or 1 h
  • #277,629
  • Apr 27, 2011 6:58am Apr 27, 2011 6:58am
Hey bro what your thoughts behind sell on eurjpy? Im a little skeptical as above 120 and also I worry how usdjpy will affect it..

Im not saying its not a sell, Im just not seeing it, and on same hand not seeing an area to buy either... hence stayed away from it for past week

thanks

Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

What concerns me a bit, is that EU is set up for a sell ( for the first time on my long term chart since Feb) - one would expect GU to be similar in setup, but it's not. So I am a bit confused as to which one to make my decision on.

I am leaving GU for now. I do have a short entry on EU @ 1.4684 - but I think I was too early. But targetting 300. This I want to leave for a week.

Eur/Jpy is also close to a sell setup in my opinion - another 30 to 50 pips or so.

That's the story.



Regards
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #277,630
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:01am Apr 27, 2011 7:01am
looks like the bear will coming
  • #277,631
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:03am Apr 27, 2011 7:03am
as I said the TP will change

GJ last TP will be 133.9 level(133.85) if we brke the 135.39

GU last TP will be 1.639 level(1.6383) if we brake the 1.6505 level


still I would not take them even with confirmation or maybe just a small lot as we are in news land still

i will keep updating but this seems to be the last TP I don't think it will grow anymore
  • #277,632
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:04am Apr 27, 2011 7:04am
Quoting budak baru
bull flag towards demand zone.
target hit.looking for long at this zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu311.png Size: 41 KB
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -15.9%
  • #277,633
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:04am Apr 27, 2011 7:04am
good call bro, Ive got it as descending triangle, with confluence at 21 ema and and previous R1 acting as support...

double

Quoting budak baru
bull flag towards demand zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 15 min.gif Size: 58 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #277,634
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:20am Apr 27, 2011 7:20am
if GBP go for flag target we can find it for 1.6700.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #277,635
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:24am Apr 27, 2011 7:24am
Quoting TauTrader;
Good day to you, San

I can only look at areas where price can bounce / break. Trading from probable extremes is what you want to do. I have scratched on FF and I include an indicator found here in the open forum.

I have played a bit with the settings. The settings I have included in the screenshot. I have marked the points where price touched the bands. These are probable extremes. Can be useful to look at areas where a possible buy may work, or where a possible sell may work.

Couple this with trend and you have a good basis to start working from. On the screenshot, you can see I have marked the the best possible areas to look for long, and for short. BUT ONLY A GUIDE.
Play with the settings and timeframes and see if you can make it work for you. This is just a very simple suggestion to assist you.

Regards
Good evening sir

Indicators that you have submitted this afternoon I have observed and make profit even if not many because it Take Profit that I can place too close so that when GU fly directly affected. Is there also a line in the middle of his intention sir? Or only for limiting the area alone? Is there an estimate for laying of Take Profit thus less susceptible to Tsunami like that ... ? Thank you

Best Regards

San
  • #277,636
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:34am Apr 27, 2011 7:34am
bought at demand pin rejection.20 pips target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu311.png Size: 42 KB
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -15.9%
  • #277,637
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:40am Apr 27, 2011 7:40am
Quoting redbeben
as I said the TP will change

GJ last TP will be 133.9 level(133.85) if we brke the 135.39

GU last TP will be 1.639 level(1.6383) if we brake the 1.6505 level


still I would not take them even with confirmation or maybe just a small lot as we are in news land still

i will keep updating but this seems to be the last TP I don't think it will grow anymore
what do you think about GJ now??
  • #277,638
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:46am Apr 27, 2011 7:46am
Quoting budak baru
bought at demand pin rejection.20 pips target.
target reach...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu311.png Size: 42 KB
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -15.9%
  • #277,639
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:47am Apr 27, 2011 7:47am
Quoting nsrajesh
what do you think about GJ now??
no short for now.

sorry but the short vision is slowly fading away.

we might double top on M5 but I have no clue.

anyway no shorts for me even if it crosses the 135.39 now
already passed the time span I was counting on

now I just wait and see if anything from higher TFS tell me something
  • #277,640
  • Apr 27, 2011 7:56am Apr 27, 2011 7:56am
hi again

please read

''Why the Fed must let rates rise
This week all eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The FOMC must decide whether to stop monetizing the federal debt issued by the Treasury, which is what the U.S. central bank calls “quantitative easing.”
Americans continue to believe — and hope — that the Fed can save us from our collective idiocy when it comes to debt, both public and private. While there are growing signs that the Fed’s zero interest rate policy, or “ZIRP,” is greatly damaging individuals and financial institutions alike, we also need to question whether the Fed can let rates rise without provoking another financial assets collapse.
In effect, the Fed and other global central banks are all caught in a “Catch-22″ situation, to borrow the phrase from the 1961 novel by Joseph Heller. The Fed’s aggressive easing of interest rates and purchases of trillions of dollars in Treasury debt and other assets has stabilized and even raised the price of financial assets, but in other respects the Fed’s policy of reflation has failed — especially compared with past interest rate cycles.

In a comment published by IRA this week, Chief Monetary Economist of Cumberland Advisors Bob Eisenbeis notes:
“From the 50s through 70s, the main channel for monetary policy was through housing: when interest rates exceeded the Reg Q ceilings that banks and thrifts could pay for funds, the supply of funding to housing was cut off. Then construction declined and the effects rippled through the rest of the economy. Most of the economic models have that structure and international isolation embedded within them. Yet this is not the world that policy makers are now dealing with … “

In an earlier comment in one of my pieces on Reuters.com, I looked at the fact that “the Fed faces continued asset price deflation at home even as the impact of its accommodative policies are already boosting global inflation.” My friend and mentor Alan Boyce, who ran the risk book at Countrywide, has been trying to educate people in Washington about the lack of “trickle down” money in terms of the Fed reliquifying the housing sector.

While the Fed’s QE and ZIRP have been a boon to the largest banks and investors on Wall Street, Main Street has been left in the cold. The continued decline in home prices in February as reported by Case-Shiller — now down eight months in a row — has been ignored to a great peril by the Obama administration. As I’ve noted previously in this blog, how does President Obama expect to win reelection if the U.S. housing sector and the banks that hold these assets are melting down come election day 2012?

Last summer, my firm earned condemnation from Wall Street for suggesting that U.S. banks were not out of the woods and that net interest margins were starting to fall. Dawn Kopecki at Bloomberg reports: “At JPMorgan, almost half of the New York-based bank’s earnings came from the release of reserves previously set aside to cover bad loans. Net revenue at the second-largest U.S. bank dropped 8.9 percent to $25.2 billion.”

The reason that revenue at many banks is falling is largely to the Fed’s policy stance, but also reflects the still dismal economic situation on Main Street. Most banks are seeing the revenue from interest earnings fall as older assets run off and new assets with far lower yields are put in their place. But the lack of demand for credit from consumers and business is also a big factor behind the sharp drop in bank assets.

The chart below is of the gross loan yield for Bank of America vs. its large bank peers. It is taken from the IRA Bank Monitor using data from the FDIC and shows the gross yield on the loan book for Bank of America Corp’s subsidiary banks going back a decade. Notice that in the 2000 timeframe, just before Chairman Bernanke joined the Fed and his predecessor Alan Greenspan stepped on the monetary gas pedal, bank’s were earning yields on loans almost two times of today’s levels. Notice, too, how competition in the 2005-2007 period drove bank loan yields down, but from 2007 the Fed’s QE and ZIRP temporarily boosted lending spreads.

Now, however, the benefits of Fed easing and FDIC debt guarantees are fading. Bank loan yields are starting to fall as lenders compete ever more aggressively for the few borrowers in the market who want credit and can actually qualify for a loan. The shrinking pool of earning assets and the lack of yield on these assets is perhaps the greatest danger to the banking system — and makes it next to impossible for Chairman Bernanke to put off raising interest rates much longer.

As we told clients of The IRA Advisory Service last week during the Q1 2011 earnings reports from the banks:
Our predominant impression from top universal banks is slack revenue to date and weak demand, and thus doubtful backlog going forward. In Q1 2011 US banks are reflecting the true situation facing their customers in the US economy. We were struck this past week by the fact that several bank executives basically said during calls and Q&A that the Fed needs to allow rates to rise so as to counter the effects of the accelerating run-off of earning assets and subsidized funding such as FDIC TLGP. Perhaps the appropriate policy formulation for the Fed is to force the cost of funds up while continuing to support overall volume of market liquidity via QE, reductions in bank reserves. End of QE without liquidity support is a very dangerous path for this fragile market in our view.

If Mr. Bernanke suggests he will raise rates soon in Wednesday’s press conference, we will know where it comes from. In fact, his speech was probably also written by the bankers, as well as suggested ways he should answer questions from reporters.
''


so beware the longs on GU in my opinion.at least for today.wait for the news.don't trade anymore


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