USD/CHF

No faith in the USD.

I agree with you that it is overvalued but at times like these who knows where it can fall to?

The come back will be nice and strong and if you have deep enough pockets why not take out a small Long position on this Pair?

That's exactly what I'm planning to do.

Too many people on the same boat, I'd say All of them, entire Market

shorting Dollar.. Uncle Ben might surprise them tomorrow

At these prices I'll take a small Long position. If it goes up I'll add to it, and I will have a lot of room to play with it if falls without taking a loss that is really going to hurt me.

I'd think that drop is slowing down, we been here at the same level

21 April, and 4 days later playing around with the same level..

On EURUSD same thing, small spooky story and it will fall like a rock.

Hang on until it "tests" channel bottom @8650 and u will reap the reward!

This week will be the key to for me the EUR/USD. Being patient with a good strong Short. Aint going to happen today though.

I'll risk it.

Unfortunately for A PAIR that used to be my bread and butter has been my evil nemesis since about this time last year when I took a bit of a beating on this one. Since then this Pair has not been kind to me. I think I have fallen into a psychological hole where subconsciously I feel I just cant win on this one. Silly yes, but I do not know how to explain it.

Waiting for the major correction.

But be forewarned, you might be better off doing the exact opposite of what I do on this Pair.

Guys

Simple theory here.. FX market is a giant market as we all know.. this market is controlled by few big banks, hedge financial institutions, corporates and retail traders(least percentage). We are the retail traders here.. As we know this from childhood that "Big fish feed on the small ones", the major financial institutions make money by stopping out/completely wiping out(in case of no stop loss) the retailers.. this is the truth. Take an example of USD/JPY.. we were in a downtrend before the earthquake and after few days after the quake, there was a big plunge in the price al the way to 75 and then next thing what happened is back to level 80 and from there onwards its trading well above 80.. Any idea what is this?... this is called, stopping out/wiping out retailers. FX market(big fishes) do not want us to make money.. So, they will know how many percentage of retailers are long/short on any pair.. they will have brokers helping hand in that.. so, in case of USD/JPY, the sentiment was like 9/10 were long.. what happened next?.. the price at 75 sent all retailers who were long to gone begging.. within minutes price was back trading near 80s.. The big fishes did their job..now they can go long targetting 90s, 100s whatsoever..

So, the same is happening here my friends.. USD/CHF is gonna be pushed way below 80(it could be just a spike down). This way they will wipe out retailers before they position the pair well abobe 88 or 90 and then consolidate and go up.. sentiments change rapidly and this kind of downward spike, can make retailers step aside from the trade as they wudn't want to lose another big sum of money to this fake move.. so as a result, big fishes make sure they reduce the retailer percentage who are long and go on with the uptrend..(ofcoz the ratio at this stage could be 3/10 but big fish wont mind that as they have done their job to reduce the percentage from 9/10)...

good luck to you guys and happy trading..

Hi, Skyzer
I still remember, how everyonge was laughing at your posts when Euro fell to some 1.20 and everyone spoke about parity and euro oblivion. I just wonder, what they felt when euro rose some 2500 pips afterwards...

Hi there, JanPoko, yeah I remember that too..

CHF (0.25% Yield) is up 21% ytd vs USD and

AUD (with 4.5% Yield) 17%

1 USD in 1970-s was buying 4 Swiss Franks.. Today valuation is

out of any logic.. I think in Switzerland now any worker is Millionaire in terms

of USD.. Actually, if you ask me USDJPY is better long at the moment

with established bottom in place.. But why people keep buying CHF

(0.25% Yield same as USD) risk-on/off no matter what ??? Gimme a

break ))

got stop out at BE

on every drop buy CHF, otherwise you will get caught up in low level sell, it will reverse in matter for few days. if you dont belive in my post, dont, but be careful with shorts and use stop loss.

after hit my buy number at 8780 this pair start move up..

start buy again

better still wait until bernanke speak tonight

close

TITCR... shorts only until then


and if it breaks that level it is on its way to .7500

I really do not see how trying to second guess the market is really helping anyone, leave the fundumental stuff to the big boys that is their game for moving the market.

The major trend is still down 4 hour/daily/weekly/monthly if anything is going to change then at least wait for confirmation on your charts.

I will be monitoring the hourly for any signs of a new trend up developing in line with the higher timeframes the previous trend continuation swing down does seem to be ending as indicated by the 4 hour chart but this does not mean the overall trend has changed, it may just be a pause to accumulate some more of you bulls.

pipfarm

usd chf weekly analyze

New low !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where are all the bottom pickers now , stopped out i would think!!!!

pipfarm

Crossing north of the ich cloud for the first time since the drop 4 hours ago (on the 1 min chart), might see a little bounce here.

ActionForex - USD/CHF's fall is resuming and intraday bias is mildly on the downside for next target of 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. On the upside, above 0.8877 minor resistance will turn bias neutral again and bring consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited below 0.9006 resistance and bring down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole decline from 1.1729 is still in progress and is expected to develop into a five wave impulsive pattern, with fall from 1.0065 as third leg. Sustained trading below 0.9 psychological level should now pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.1729 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at 0.8664 first and then 100% projection at 0.7798. On the upside, break of 0.9339 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Tomorrow FMOC will give us clue about reversal. Still buying on every 30 pips drop