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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #277,041
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:26am Apr 20, 2011 10:26am
thank you, il take what u said on board, im a classic bad trader:

1)no stop losses
2) bet too big
3) cant take a loss so dont exit till its way too late
4) cant adapt
5) have no plan
6) no entry method

these traits are so difficult to drum out, and reading the forums here, im not the only one with these problems, but when your doing well, or on a good streak, u try and accelerate and bang, the market kicks you in the balls so hard that ur flat on the floor again...it feels like it will be years before i am at the stage where i can make money consistently, whereas i wish the process was months...
just sharing...
  • #277,042
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:39am Apr 20, 2011 10:39am
Quoting monkey@forex
thank you, il take what u said on board, im a classic bad trader:

1)no stop losses
2) bet too big
3) cant take a loss so dont exit till its way too late
4) cant adapt
5) have no plan
6) no entry method

these traits are so difficult to drum out, and reading the forums here, im not the only one with these problems, but when your doing well, or on a good streak, u try and accelerate and bang, the market kicks you in the balls so hard that ur flat on the floor again...it feels like it will be years before i am at the stage where i can make money...

Hey, we've all been there. The successful traders on FF all started from the same place as you and I. Read through some of the old stuff that the likes of Wormie, Cloggs, Eohater etc. have put on here and you'll see that is the case, and they all still make losses now and then. They are just experienced enough to know that you cannot win them all and not take it too personally.

But you really do need to sit down and have a plan. It is definitely possible to make a living out of trading - I've been doing this for a year now and am getting pretty comfortable. If you want to make it your job, treat it with respect.

I aim to make 1% per day. It doesn't sound much but 1% per day, 250 days trading in a year = 250% growth per year. It soon starts to add up.

Some really important points I've picked up from people are:

  1. Fail to prepare = prepare to fail.
  2. Make a plan, make some rules, stick to them.
  3. Take emotion out of your trading.

Take these on board and it's a solid foundation on which to be successful. I'm nowhere near the finished article, but if you get into a proper routine, this trading lark does get easier. Fingers crossed.

  • #277,043
  • Apr 20, 2011 11:37am Apr 20, 2011 11:37am
Quoting Shahbaz
gbpusd is starting down side 1.6200
Please can I see your graph?

Thanks in advance.
  • #277,044
  • Edited 1:08pm Apr 20, 2011 12:07pm | Edited 1:08pm
Quoting vinnie_roe
Interesting comment. I would appreciate your insights on how these traps are setup.
Sorry for the delay, but....


The trapping I referred to would have occurred Friday afternoon if GBP/USD had drifted off aways into the afternoon. But on that day it didn't.

I used to trade the post-stop-run retraces that would occur across many pairs into the NY afternoon, but at some point over a year ago, that stopped happening, and price just kept on moving (same direction) into the afternoons. I've come to expect that to happen, especially on Fridays.

I have a theory about this change in price action: that it occurred in whole or in part because the CFTC banned hedging here in the States (the FIFO rule thing).

It used to be possible when caught in a stop run to "hedge", or go into what I would describe as "a state of grace" that would permit preservation of basis by opening an opposing position in the same pair and paying a small interest differential each day until the stop run was exhausted...and at that point you could "un-hedge", and ride price movement back to where you got in or beyond and either break even or make a huge profit.

The tie-in with retraces? Well, after stops had been tripped in the morning, the banks, brokers and dealers who set these stop runs would see the stragglers who didn't get out right away hedging (or passing into a state of grace!) at which point the pursuit might as well end because at that point their stops would disappear; so, the stop runners would just close out the remainder of their huge positions, and that would cause the price to retrace.

Now, post-FIFO, anyone trapped early in the day is a goner absent very deep pockets or very low leverage. Now, it pays for stop-runners to hold these stragglers up by the ankles and wait for the money to shake loose from their pockets since they have no escape anymore thanks to the CFTC.

Stop-running seems to have become more extended, more common and a lot more vicious lately. So, beware!
  • #277,045
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:26pm Apr 20, 2011 12:26pm
It is just my view but for the moment i am thinking it will go down. It needs to break current weekly and monthly highs quickly for this bull to continue. I am hoping to get a good sell entry tomorow.
  • #277,046
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:34pm Apr 20, 2011 12:34pm
Quoting 4xsa
It is just my view but for the moment i am thinking it will go down. It needs to break current weekly and monthly highs quickly for this bull to continue. I am hoping to get a good sell entry tomorow.

Hey 4x, on my graph if the D1 bar closes beow 1.6384 then I'll look for a sell. If it closes, close to this price, I would be looking to load back up for another test of the high.

So basically the same as you?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sell.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #277,047
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:47pm Apr 20, 2011 12:47pm
Quoting Shadip
Hey 4x, on my graph if the D1 bar closes beow 1.6384 then I'll look for a sell. If it closes, close to this price, I would be looking to load back up for another test of the high.

So basically the same as you?
hello
i notice on the chart candles of different colors.
is it something with volumes?
tks
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #277,048
  • Apr 20, 2011 12:53pm Apr 20, 2011 12:53pm
Quoting _BBKing_
hello
i notice on the chart candles of different colors.
is it something with volumes?
tks

Yeah buddy,

yellow shows low relative volume,
green shows tight spreads with relatively high volume,
red shows high volume wide spread buying climax,
white shows high volume wide spread seling climax.

I know that thats not the exact correct descriptions but they're on those lines.
  • #277,049
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:08pm Apr 20, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting Shadip
Yeah buddy,

yellow shows low relative volume,
green shows tight spreads with relatively high volume,
red shows high volume wide spread buying climax,
white shows high volume wide spread seling climax.

I know that thats not the exact correct descriptions but they're on those lines.
ok
im searching something interesting on volumes.
looks like it is useful.
tks for the reply
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #277,050
  • Apr 20, 2011 1:32pm Apr 20, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting _BBKing_
ok
im searching something interesting on volumes.
looks like it is useful.
tks for the reply
Hello, how are you doing today ? Thick green color ?
  • #277,051
  • Apr 20, 2011 4:00pm Apr 20, 2011 4:00pm
Quoting 0rPhioZ
Hello, how are you doing today ? Thick green color ?
50-50
yesterday shorted euro SL 4380 gosh
today only recovered 80% of loss....... buying euro n also buying gbp
tomorrow new day, hope to be good

i saw you missing butlot of people today were missing the thread
now i go for a good sleep
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #277,052
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:38pm Apr 20, 2011 5:38pm
Next target 1.65.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #277,053
  • Apr 20, 2011 5:59pm Apr 20, 2011 5:59pm
Price action on the larger time frames shows this pair is primed for a breakout topside. It has been locked in this 500 pip channel for several months now from 1.6426 to 1.5935.. but on this particular swing low it only managed to retrace to roughly the center point of the channel ( 1.6180 is CP, 1.6165 was hit with the long wick and strongly rejected)

This means a very high likely hood of a breakout to the 1.6594 area... over the coming weeks in spite of very negative BOE news basically saying the Uk will likely hold off any interest rate hikes until well into June at the earliest due to an extremely poor economic outlook.

but as per the usual the USD weakness trumps them all! onward and upward!
  • #277,054
  • Apr 20, 2011 6:13pm Apr 20, 2011 6:13pm
I'll be buying the dip at 1.6370 area where yellow line is at.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #277,055
  • Apr 20, 2011 7:51pm Apr 20, 2011 7:51pm
ok im now long again at 1.6402, s/l 1.6334, t/p 1.6496
  • #277,056
  • Apr 20, 2011 10:50pm Apr 20, 2011 10:50pm
LONG 6437, it looks too high but for now it doesn't even manage to go lower past 6439
  • #277,057
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:45am Apr 21, 2011 12:45am
Quoting 0rPhioZ
LONG 6437, it looks too high but for now it doesn't even manage to go lower past 6439
hello all.
gosh
no retrace
no consistant pullback (few pips)
usdx 74.10 now while writing

euro straight 12-13 h4 candles up
aud nothing to tell (pfff)

are we going to watch news?
are we going to follow flows?
are we going to wait a technical retrace?

what do you all would advice?
last year i saw something like this in the opposite way down.

for me is better to get the breakouts few pips, take n go.
for ex i bought euro 4568 to 4600.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #277,058
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:55am Apr 21, 2011 12:55am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all.
gosh
no retrace
no consistant pullback (few pips)
usdx 74.10 now while writing

euro straight 12-13 h4 candles up
aud nothing to tell (pfff)

are we going to watch news?
are we going to follow flows?
are we going to wait a technical retrace?

what do you all would advice?
last year i saw something like this in the opposite way down.

for me is better to get the breakouts few pips, take n go.
for ex i bought euro 4568 to 4600.
GBP seems to still have vitality to go up further despite bears start baring their fangs. I am more comfortable with scalp for the moment. Don't wanna get caught in bear traps. If it manage to reach even 6500 (looking from H4, I'd say it's more than possible). I'll wait for some quite strong pullback before taking any new position.
  • #277,059
  • Apr 21, 2011 12:56am Apr 21, 2011 12:56am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello all.
gosh
no retrace
no consistant pullback (few pips)
usdx 74.10 now while writing

euro straight 12-13 h4 candles up
aud nothing to tell (pfff)

are we going to watch news?
are we going to follow flows?
are we going to wait a technical retrace?

what do you all would advice?
last year i saw something like this in the opposite way down.

for me is better to get the breakouts few pips, take n go.
for ex i bought euro 4568 to 4600.
pure bull markets are tough to trade. they really take no prisoner.
Im not sure the TF's you trade on but I am long from a few positions down near the 1.6000 level... Ill hold them as my next target to a new Mid term area is 6596 and ill look at PA in that area to decide where to next

till then i just say enjoy the ride and if there is a risk off day or news event use the opportunity to go long!!
  • #277,060
  • Apr 21, 2011 1:03am Apr 21, 2011 1:03am
ok.
so all the world looks like buy every possible dip-pullback-retrace etc..

in my 2 years i noticed this thing happening more n more near major holidays (eastern-xmas etc).
in these days market has lower liquidity, and can be driven "very easy"

today last day. tomorrow "taking profits" day
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
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