Cable Update (GBPUSD) | Page 13824 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Cable Update - Continued 118 replies

Cable Update (GBP/USD) without Idiots 25 replies

cable short for gbpusd? 10 replies

Why is GBPUSD called cable? 76 replies

Cable (GBPUSD) vs Euro (EURUSD) 31 replies

Attachments: Cable Update (GBPUSD)
Exit Attachments

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #276,461
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:04am Apr 14, 2011 9:04am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Thanks mate, this is what we should have on this thread!!

I am thinking on the same lines. Results indicate more pain to come for UK. Inflation is due to high energy prices not because people are spending, "they are not" that's what the recent retail report suggested. BOE is far away from rise and if they do, UK is doomed with so much job cuts coming their way property will be on the streets and not many would be willing to buy, who would have the money and jobs not there, who will finance.


ta
ams



Quoting Beljevina
I'd noticed this megaphone pattern too, and was trying to figure it out; from a PA perspective, I consider GU to be in ranging mode, looking for fair value between the rough 1.6 and 1.64 area - really, a very slim range, given we've been back and forth here for months now.

Am looking to fundamentals and sentiment on sterling for that upwards break, but it keeps getting beaten down for sterling/UK specific reasons IMO, and we may now be in a sentiment shift, as they once again roll out the debt concern chestnuts. If we are indeed to see a xxxUSD...
  • #276,462
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:08am Apr 14, 2011 9:08am
either the 5th of may BOE will raise the interest or latest 9th of june

I preffer the 9th of june as it would fit my pattern so....I guess we will go down again for now and then up again.still some 300 pips to go down from this level in different waves

and a chart with the weekly thoughts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: W GU.JPG Size: 173 KB
  • #276,463
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:10am Apr 14, 2011 9:10am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Guessing, I reckon Aug or later maybe...



Quoting redbeben
either the 5th of may BOE will raise the interest or latest 9th of june

I preffer the 9th of june as it would fit my pattern so....I guess we will go down again for now and then up again.still some 300 pips to go down from this level in different waves
  • #276,464
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:20am Apr 14, 2011 9:20am
Quoting ams
Guessing, I reckon Aug or later maybe...
aug is way to far on my chart so if it happens then it won't help me much

but I stick to my idea of 5th may or 9th june.even july is to far away from me

anyway after the rake we'll have a biiig fall back to 1.50-1.55 level ....meaning that the rake will blow up the economy for good
  • #276,465
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:26am Apr 14, 2011 9:26am
Fed Super Hawk Plosser on in 5 minutes. GU is up there pretty good, but if Plosser says something outrageous... look out below! Or not. Good to keep an eye on the newswires over the next half hour or so.
  • #276,466
  • Edited 10:02am Apr 14, 2011 9:40am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting redbeben
thank you,thank you very much

now we go on a short..short of 30 pips

normally it should go down to 1.6305 but I would not bet on that.this move was to strong now to take it for granted
after this pull back long as well on GJ TP 136.40
GJ done as well GU 20 pips to go moved SL to BE now

I will open a sell GJ around 136.40-50 with TP 136.10
  • #276,467
  • Edited 10:16am Apr 14, 2011 9:54am | Edited 10:16am
There might be nothing here, but the very high volume on that last upthrust into the point of control at 1.6383 is accompanied by some of the highest volume this month; I tend to have much confidence in my Citibank tick volume, and based on the timing (end of NY morning & bulk-of-day's-movement) - all seems like big boys selling into the upthrust, with enthusiasm.

This zone right up to 1.640 is a supply zone that may prove resistance and provide with many sellers. Hard to rule out a 3rd attempt at 1.64252, but the rejection potential is there, given there isn't likely to be any news catalyst in the 1 remaining trading day, plus, given the week's sentiment, it seems a long-shot for the weekly candle print to close any higher than we've already seen this week.

I'm looking to the EURUSD and a thus far 4 of 5 days inability to get beyond it's 1.452 high, along with a pronounced wave of concerning sentiment that has been rolled out this week. The danger is that the euro is still very much in an uptrend, and almost every Friday has seen it bounce 150-200 pips up, which if it happens, may carry GBPUSD with it, but again, that 1.6425+ catalyst just doesn't seem there. Speculating, I'd be looking for a ride back down to the supply zone and today's open of 1.6266

EDIT: Also meant to add 6B futures, and the spike there, that are potential sellers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-14_125251.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-04-14_131412.png Size: 37 KB
  • #276,468
  • Apr 14, 2011 9:57am Apr 14, 2011 9:57am
After looking at GBPUSD at 8pm yesterday I decided to go long on the up as I was asleep, but in the morning a couldn't get online and had to phone in at just after 9 am to close the deal 75 pips up. What a result and so took the rest of the day off.

Since I have read the posts on the forms and used every bit of information things are looking great, so thanks guys I learn something every day here.
  • #276,469
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:10am Apr 14, 2011 10:10am
Quoting Beljevina
I'd noticed this megaphone pattern too, and was trying to figure it out; from a PA perspective, I consider GU to be in ranging mode, looking for fair value between the rough 1.6 and 1.64 area - really, a very slim range, given we've been back and forth here for months now.

Am looking to fundamentals and sentiment on sterling for that upwards break, but it keeps getting beaten down for sterling/UK specific reasons IMO, and we may now be in a sentiment shift, as they once again roll out the debt concern chestnuts. If we are indeed to see a xxxUSD...
When I saw this pattern, if it reach one of its edges (upper/lower), I use fibo to gauge its retrace based on its last wave. If it penetrate 50% fib., the likely is that it will penetrate to the opposite side. In this current GU case, it touched just below 61.8 fib a little bit then bounced up. Moreover, the price now is in the buffet zone between 5SMA & 21SMA on D1. SMA5 is above 21SMA. So i am prone to that it will test the upper trendline again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU15042011.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #276,470
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:19am Apr 14, 2011 10:19am
Hi all, let me introduce myself to this great thread. I am new to this fx game and still learning. I have been trying to understand Price action, and have quick question about today's event on the GU. The swing up from the open 1.6253-1.6364 showed buyers were in, then a pullback of more then 50% to 1.6287 showed that sellers didnt believe that 1.6364 was a right price as they took more then 61.8% of the buyers gains. So anything above 1.6364 is oversold right???? Is that correct??? Sorry i could attach a chart. I would like any input that will tell me if my undertsanding of price action is right of wrong. cheers
  • #276,471
  • Apr 14, 2011 10:27am Apr 14, 2011 10:27am
Quoting redbeben
either the 5th of may BOE will raise the interest or latest 9th of june

I preffer the 9th of june as it would fit my pattern so....I guess we will go down again for now and then up again.still some 300 pips to go down from this level in different waves

and a chart with the weekly thoughts
why all peoples want UK to rise interest rate? why not US? US data is better and they need some money right now...is it impossible that US first?
I will be the number one Manager.
  • #276,472
  • Apr 14, 2011 11:30am Apr 14, 2011 11:30am
Quoting javapips
why all peoples want UK to rise interest rate? why not US? US data is better and they need some money right now...is it impossible that US first?
frankly...i have no idea on how to check it
the only thing I know for sure is that GBP will raise the rates or we will have a 300 pips up as normal move for the next weeks.as I mentioned in previous posts there are max 6 weeks to go untill we reach some 1.67 level.if hike rate we can even see 1.7

on EU same story with a top of 1.50-51 in the next 6-8 weeks.

this is only long term view as price might go up and down for hundreds of pips in those 1,1/2 months

after 1.50 on EU price will fall to 1.34-37 level.my biggest concern is that price will fall some hundreds from 1.45 level as all charts show me overbought.

on GU same story....needs to go to the above levels of 1.67-70 and then down we go with a scary rollercoaster
  • #276,473
  • Apr 14, 2011 12:19pm Apr 14, 2011 12:19pm
smells like another double top.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #276,474
  • Apr 14, 2011 12:22pm Apr 14, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Short entered - 1.6348 - SL 1.6380 area.

Regards
Thats what i'm thinking is short here....so what do you guys think? Any legs for it to keep going up?
  • #276,475
  • Apr 14, 2011 12:41pm Apr 14, 2011 12:41pm
Quoting ferndog
Thats what i'm thinking is short here....so what do you guys think? Any legs for it to keep going up?
Good day,

Not enough momentum at present. I do believe we may have a last leg down from here. But I do not know how far we will go. If you do enter, keep your stops tight.

We may see more bullishness in the next week or so.

gotta get some sleep

Regards
  • #276,476
  • Apr 14, 2011 12:58pm Apr 14, 2011 12:58pm
just speaking out loud here.....

I keep reading every single post "non-stop" for the past 2 weeks..... and..... hard to say what to conclude....
some say next week we will hit 1.67 and others 1.59.... hmmmm?
is there really a way to "predict".... no offense but after all the major changes in post 2008 I lost all my believes about trading and stocks as being some sort of nice "white coat science" following some reasonable fundamentals - it is just one hell of a casino, gamble and insiders...
having said that here I'm playing along

just a thought since the market is so boring now
  • #276,477
  • Apr 14, 2011 2:28pm Apr 14, 2011 2:28pm
Hmm, I took the opportunity to read through a few of the pages here - now, now.

Some charts - minus fans and standard fib levels... may include a few of these a little later, but do not want to spread myself out too much between threads.

sphinx8 - try reading a little of these threads... I rate most of who visit here to know what they are talking about. Ignore my postings - they are more warnings than examples. Yes Smikester, I'm listening to my man Diamond Dave this evening.

Stocky Monk and Co on: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=243587

pkimnyc and Co on: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...20&postcount=1

... and of course there are many other threads with very good traders, but it starts to become a little too time-consuming to track and keep up with it all.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gufew.gif Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gufed.gif Size: 42 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #276,478
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:27pm Apr 14, 2011 3:27pm
Quoting FX Junior
Hi all, let me introduce myself to this great thread. I am new to this fx game and still learning. I have been trying to understand Price action, and have quick question about today's event on the GU. The swing up from the open 1.6253-1.6364 showed buyers were in, then a pullback of more then 50% to 1.6287 showed that sellers didnt believe that 1.6364 was a right price as they took more then 61.8% of the buyers gains. So anything above 1.6364 is oversold right???? Is that correct??? Sorry i could attach a chart. I would like any input that will...
The first move was during the Asian session. Prior to that President Obama spoke about the measures the government was taking to cut the deficit. There was a hope of the turnaround in the USD from that speech but it turns out that plans to cut the deficit in the next 20 years didn't cut it with the market.

During the Asian session the MAS allowed its currency to further strengthen against the dollar which had some effect of weakening the USD. See: http://www.forexlive.com/category/all/page/11 But this is a big subject. Incidentally good news came out for GBP just at the beginning of the Asian session.

When Asia closes and London opens it's a new session. For whatever reason there were buyers of dollars across the board, perhaps just a retracement when a currency falls too fast. In the case of cable we found support in the consolidation - see chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd110414h1 2.gif Size: 33 KB


When price touches the grey box and leaves it so solidly, almost encompassing the previous bar, it's called price action. You could have used the red bar for your buy stop and stop loss order levels if you had anticipated this happening. That would have been a good trade. Like I say, if you anticipate something like this, using support and resistance, you can get a good entry. I waited hours. I didn't waste the time, I was reading about Asian session, what Obama said, looking at support levels. Then this was mine, on the 5 minute chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd110414m5.gif Size: 32 KB


You can see a good green candle and it's at 1.6300. That's 1.6300, a big number. The price is telling us it doesn't want to go down into the grey box, support, and doesn't even want to go below 1.63. On the 5 minute chart, the risk is very low compared with the potential reward. Like the red bar in the paragraph above, but this time using the green bar, 15 pips instead of 30 pips.

For the guy above who mentioned gambling - yes it is speculation - but it's not like backing a horse or running a wheel. You can change the odds. If it doesn't go well you can get out quick with most of your stake.

Always looking for support and resistance levels, if we're not sure we don't trade. Today was an "up" day when I took the trade. I would never have taken it if I was trading toward the daily open price. That's against the trend.

As far as overbought and oversold is concerned, I don't know. I use ATR. I don't use indicators very much. But you are right about the 61.8 level. I sometimes use fibs but usually as a measuring stick, like any other tool. Hope someone reads some of this. Cheers.
Gone to a better place
  • #276,479
  • Apr 14, 2011 3:35pm Apr 14, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting 45Condor
Hmm, I took the opportunity to read through a few of the pages here - now, now. Yes Smikester, I'm listening to my man Diamond Dave this evening.

Stocky Monk and Co on: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=243587

pkimnyc and Co on: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...20&postcount=1

... and of course there are many other threads with very good traders, but it starts to become a little too time-consuming to track and keep up with it all.
Hi Condor. Nice to see your charts here. But this is what I have to do to pay penance for showing off earlier. Man I was burning bright today.
Gone to a better place
  • #276,480
  • Apr 14, 2011 4:11pm Apr 14, 2011 4:11pm
thanks smikester, your advice is great. I would be studying watching price action as much as i can in real time before risking any money. I believe that price action is the only way to be profitable in this market and indicators are to slow to confirm signals. When i said it was oversold, I wasn't relating to any indicator. I was looking at the top 1.6363 and was thinking that at that price it was oversold that's why the sellers came in, at the time i didn't see it as oversold only after the retracement down I considered it to be a oversold area. do you have any good websites to books i could look into for price action???? thanks again for the explaination of today's activities on the GU.
246 traders viewing now, 3 are registered:
,
F.g
,
Waveskierrob