Attachments: USD/CHF

USD/CHF

#1,661
Apr 13, 2011 7:41am Apr 13, 2011 7:41am

Venice
Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Weebley Wobbly Timey Wimey stuff | 10,604 Posts

Quoting jezek5

Disliked

.9000 looks like being the number in play,daily closes below
and we keep grinding down,but a close above that number
would have me rethinking my bearishness on this pair short term.
For me longer term i only see this pair going lower,just can't see
any reason to hold USD's over Swiss Franc's.
Good luck everyone with your trades.

Ignored

Same here Jezek. No sense fighting the trend... Aussie and euro begin uptrend resumption last night. I would like to see this clear the current demand zone first though. Hard to really make out, but it's a big one and may take some time to push through.

#1,662
Apr 13, 2011 7:59am Apr 13, 2011 7:59am

aqeelaputra
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: asli made in indonesia | 564 Posts

Quoting jezek5

Disliked

.9000 looks like being the number in play,daily closes below
and we keep grinding down,but a close above that number
would have me rethinking my bearishness on this pair short term.
For me longer term i only see this pair going lower,just can't see
any reason to hold USD's over Swiss Franc's.
Good luck everyone with your trades.

Ignored

of course..in my view sentiment is different from the currency.. once the euro has experienced the same thing so it all just depends on market sentiment..

#1,663
Apr 13, 2011 8:13am Apr 13, 2011 8:13am

jezek5
| Joined Apr 2010 | Status: 888 | 1,664 Posts

This pair has no direction today,that last hourly bar looks really bearish
but as soon as it closed we bounced back up again,really thin today.
I think i'll be looking for short side scalps below .8975

You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

#1,664
Apr 13, 2011 9:29am Apr 13, 2011 9:29am

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

This pair is wacked out of its tree!! I mean, no sense of direction when sentiment is bad and good. It seems right now the player with the most chips is in control. When the hedgies sense the chf may be in bear country is when you will see this pair RIP!! up like bat out of hell. Trillions and trillions of francs arent going to do any bank any good if the country of origin has a gdp of 500 bill, LOL unless switzerland becomes the ultimate playboy country and rich men with there fancy cars rule the countryside? and the rest of the world is burning to hell...LOL What I am saying is eventually an exit strategy will be in place. Short term maybe more downside...but sometime this thing has to give in. jmo

We are pretty close to the bottom...and I think it has been extended by a few months, just because of the japan disaster. QE2 is coming to an end so I am thinking we could see some capitulation sometime within the month. Me personally i am throwing in little positions and preparing my downside risk to .75 where I will get stopped out if we hit it. I will be adding all thru the .80's. Just because I want to catch the ride up to 1.05 area.

Don't be fooled by randomness

#1,665
Apr 13, 2011 9:33am Apr 13, 2011 9:33am

jezek5
| Joined Apr 2010 | Status: 888 | 1,664 Posts

Quoting jezek5

Disliked

This pair has no direction today,that last hourly bar looks really bearish
but as soon as it closed we bounced back up again,really thin today.
I think i'll be looking for short side scalps below .8975

Ignored

Amazing,as soon as anyone offers Franc's to swap
for Dollars they step in and snatch their hands off.
Got short at 75 as planned.

You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

#1,666
Apr 13, 2011 9:45am Apr 13, 2011 9:45am

jezek5
| Joined Apr 2010 | Status: 888 | 1,664 Posts

Quoting jezek5

Disliked

Amazing,as soon as anyone offers Franc's to swap
for Dollars they step in and snatch their hands off.
Got short at 75 as planned.

Ignored

Only scalping so covered half at 55 BE stop on the rest.

You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

#1,667
Apr 13, 2011 10:01am Apr 13, 2011 10:01am

jezek5
| Joined Apr 2010 | Status: 888 | 1,664 Posts

Quoting jezek5

Disliked

Only scalping so covered half at 55 BE stop on the rest.

Ignored

Covered the rest at 40 for +35.
Not great but it will do on a slow day.

You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

#1,668
Apr 13, 2011 10:31am Apr 13, 2011 10:31am

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...eadline_2.html

#1,669
Apr 13, 2011 10:33am Apr 13, 2011 10:33am

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

i think we ar going to .88 today

Don't be fooled by randomness

#1,670
Apr 13, 2011 10:58am Apr 13, 2011 10:58am

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

Quoting frothy

Disliked

i think we ar going to .88 today

Ignored

might be.

tomorrow big push lower, with a hard pull back, kind of a daily hammer forming. Or maybe at Friday

If the daily candles has a different colour then the previous days, the bulls will come.

If I`am back home, I´ll show you the daily chf/lfx chart, which has a channel. In the next one or two days, we reach the upper part of this chanel, and price reverse.

#1,671
Apr 13, 2011 11:20am Apr 13, 2011 11:20am

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

ya this thing is going to hit a super rock bottom!! look at the previous lows before a 2000 pip run on the weekly chart, there is usually a really large capitulation...something along the lines of a 200 pip fall!! then we move up from there. Good luck

Don't be fooled by randomness

#1,672
Apr 13, 2011 11:44am Apr 13, 2011 11:44am

geniusztc
Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Hello,Mr.Market | 1,806 Posts

i love these candle styles.

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A chart helps those who can read it.

#1,673
Apr 13, 2011 12:06pm Apr 13, 2011 12:06pm

VedantaTrade
| Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 30 Posts

Quoting geniusztc

Disliked

i love these candle styles.

Ignored

As I said yesterday, I m expecting a possible dip below the lows, with then some strong buying. However, the dip below could well be 100-200 pips. I m long term orientated on this pair, so I m already long USD, however, I m not near all in.

For example, if I m going to go 3% all in, on this pair, then I will perhaps scale in at 0.25% increments. However, at least half of the entries will come as the pair moves upwards.

The attached chart show intraday hourly futures data with a volume at price indicator. The pink line is the point of control, or the price increment where most trading activity has occurred over the last 3 days These are excellent places to decide on support and resistance. If this area holds as support then the CHF bulls are still in control.

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#1,674
Apr 13, 2011 1:33pm Apr 13, 2011 1:33pm

frothy
| Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Trader | 257 Posts

This thing is going to sub.88 possibly by the end of the week. Think about it..washington can't even get there act together. Rick santelli said it best, they all want to get re-elected and so are afraid to the right thing even if it looks bad, but instead try and sell themselves. I think this retrace to .8960 zone is a gift! short it and cover below .88! Go with the trend as it is your friend!

P.S The chf index looks as thou it just formed a flag and is now making another leg up!
Also just touching the 50 dma

Don't be fooled by randomness

#1,675
Apr 13, 2011 4:20pm Apr 13, 2011 4:20pm

peaches
Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,461 Posts

Quoting VedantaTrade

Disliked

As I said yesterday, I m expecting a possible dip below the lows, with then some strong buying. However, the dip below could well be 100-200 pips. I m long term orientated on this pair, so I m already long USD, however, I m not near all in.

For example, if I m going to go 3% all in, on this pair, then I will perhaps scale in at 0.25% increments. However, at least half of the entries will come as the pair moves upwards.

The attached chart show intraday hourly futures data with a volume at price indicator. The pink line is the point of control,...

Ignored

this is interisting information about future data.

I use chf/lfx. This is a weigthed basket of other currencys against the franc. Gives information about the direction of the franc.

You see a nice channel moving up. I´am looking for a (bearish) turning point at the upper part of the channel. But we have seen a indicision candle today.

Its because we are at a fibo level, so this is a resistance which has to be broken to move further up (=in usd/chf down).

But a look at the daily close for usd/chf:

The candle which is marked with "1" closed below the close of the candles from 16/17./18.03. This has broken support. The upper wick of todays candle was a test of this broken support, might be resistance now. If price moves higher then last days wick (89.92). In this case we move up till 0.91, but I don´t think so.

Pretty easy.

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