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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,821
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:45pm Apr 11, 2011 9:45pm
Quoting VinceS
stuffit I've opened another long position on the above logic!
NO!!!!! Buddy, your belief are sheet, price action is king. Look at the chart right now and what is it telling you? For me, it tells me to go short. If your trading style is shorting then cover the long and go short. My trading style is long so I stay out of the market right now.
  • #23,822
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:56pm Apr 11, 2011 9:56pm
Quoting visser300
price action is king. Look at the chart right now and what is it telling you? For me, it tells me to go short.
Yes I agree. the thing I wrestle with is that there is ALWAYS a reason for price to move, often this is pure human behaviour, and that is what I am trying to spot. ie we now have a piece of important info clearly saying which way a market should go and some people will push it the other way first. I think there is a bit of "a club" going that runs these patterns, the q for me is whether we are in one at the moment or this is something else. Also of course there are many players with different perspectives but we can en masse act according to our psyche, both a help and a hindrance - but especially a trap if manipulation is involved.

Right now the PA has stabilised 6 pips under entry for me. If it nose dives I will pull out and take a 20 pip slap on the face for getting the pattern wrong. If it starts a steady ramp up I will be on b/e + 1 by time move 6 pips as any reversal means I have no basis to be in the trade. I am just putting this stuff out there as i think the way people's minds and thoughts work could be a bit more transparent in order to help us all learn while the wheels are turning, not some time later....
  • #23,823
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:03pm Apr 11, 2011 10:03pm
besides price action and all ... any ideas what is causing this sudden massive downtrend?

I don't see any news currenctly.. is it maybe take profits from longs or stop orders.. ?
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #23,824
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:23pm Apr 11, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
besides price action and all ... any ideas what is causing this sudden massive downtrend?

I don't see any news currenctly.. is it maybe take profits from longs or stop orders.. ?
lol, isn't the trend your friend, just short the US dollar index, don't be afraid from your friend, just short the us dollar index, stop asking why us dollar going up, why you didn't ask why it was going down after the japan quake, tsunami, radiation, Portugal, middle east unrest,....., every one was on the carry trade wagon and long metals and oil, now they are all trying to exit at the same moment
  • #23,825
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:28pm Apr 11, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting agolac
Japan Lifts Atomic Alert to Highest Level on Radiation, Matching Chernobyl

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...radiation.html
this didn't make any freaking sense. tell me why this would make Yen skyrocketing?

USD/JPY and AUD/USD both go down like mad???

why?
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #23,826
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:36pm Apr 11, 2011 10:36pm
guys,i think there is sumtin happening in japan at d moment,which is making d yen stronger.for me i started selling from 85.026.and am not closing d position yet,until i see a reverser.i feel d market will test d monthly pivot 2day or 2moro.80.954.
  • #23,827
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:38pm Apr 11, 2011 10:38pm
Quoting Chi
USD/JPY and AUD/USD both go down like mad???
why?
So USD strengthens, and Yen strengthens faster! A few weeks ago the USD was getting weaker and the Yen weaker faster. There WILL be a connection!

It means my conspiracy theory has been blown out of the water for this particular movement anyway. Stupidly I made a sandwich and did something else so didn't catch the cliff edge to bale on, now I have a stupid look and another trade pothole to worry about...
  • #23,828
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:39pm Apr 11, 2011 10:39pm
market rewards those who are patient to d end.
  • #23,829
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:47pm Apr 11, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting prinso
market rewards those who are patient to d end.
or u get lucky for something like this when there is NOTHING BACKS U UP FOR UR TRADES.

might as well turn out to be a good luck "V".
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #23,830
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:50pm Apr 11, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting prinso
market rewards those who are patient to d end.
yeah yeah, rub it in! What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, shyte I must be a strong old fart by now!

Doing some analysis on my latest mistake the pattern I was looking for is the one we just had to 83.50, this is what I recognise as typical of the opposite push. The earlier one wasn't steep enough but good 'ol FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) got me!

The pattern itself isn't exactly reliable but what they tend to do is ramp out off the bottom, have a hesitation / pull-back half way then roll off to wherever the fundamental news would take them (in my view being the release of the minutes some 3 hours ago). So, using this logic i would expect to see 85 within a few hours. Just for a bit of entertainment and contrast to the 80 sayers while I get to see if I get something for the pain......
  • #23,831
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:52pm Apr 11, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting Chi
NOTHING BACKS U UP FOR UR TRADES.
Exactly! This is the point I was trying to make earlier before getting distracted by one of the possible "somethings".
  • #23,832
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:02pm Apr 11, 2011 11:02pm
Quoting prinso
market rewards those who are patient to d end.
Damn, I put a buy limit @83.40 but this little bastard went down to 83.49 and went up.

That nine pips cost me 38 pips in profit. God damn this pair.
  • #23,833
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:04pm Apr 11, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting visser300
Damn, I put a buy limit @83.40 but this little bastard went down to 83.49 and went up.

That nine pips cost me 38 pips in profit. God damn this pair.

market rewards those who are patient to d end.
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #23,834
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:05pm Apr 11, 2011 11:05pm
Quoting visser300
Damn, I put a buy limit @83.40 but this little bastard went down to 83.49 and went up.

That nine pips cost me 38 pips in profit. God damn this pair.
i longed and got stopped earlier, too. i am not too happy either. haha
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #23,835
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:08pm Apr 11, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting visser300
Damn, I put a buy limit @83.40.
What I am talking about above if the pattern is real it will have a green 5 min hammer at the bottom of the hill, entry is 1 pip up on close. This is just a conclusion I have come to, no particular backing but my own observation which, as you can see, I am not so good at applying!

Buy limits work great for channels, you will be wrong once but have a pre-programmed stop. Here there is no logic for a buy limit, unless you would kindly educate us where the guessing ended and the logic started....?
  • #23,836
  • Apr 12, 2011 12:36am Apr 12, 2011 12:36am
USDJPY starting Going Down,There's No Poin For Long This Pairs Now But Its Your Guys Choice
  • #23,837
  • Apr 12, 2011 1:06am Apr 12, 2011 1:06am
im going to short it until the MA crosses on a upper TF .


Quoting J.Giordano
USDJPY starting Going Down,There's No Poin For Long This Pairs Now But Its Your Guys Choice
  • #23,838
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:23am Apr 12, 2011 2:23am
Quoting VinceS
yeah yeah, rub it in! What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, shyte I must be a strong old fart by now!

Doing some analysis on my latest mistake the pattern I was looking for is the one we just had to 83.50, this is what I recognise as typical of the opposite push. The earlier one wasn't steep enough but good 'ol FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) got me!

The pattern itself isn't exactly reliable but what they tend to do is ramp out off the bottom, have a hesitation / pull-back half way then roll off to wherever the fundamental news would take them...
good bottom pick, now uare 70 pips ahead.
More than a hobby. Never a game. US Client at 1:50.
  • #23,839
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:26am Apr 12, 2011 2:26am
Quoting Chi
good bottom pick, now uare 70 pips ahead.
It looks like that the drop on the morning is just a spike. Let the London session answer this.

If it goes up to 84.70's zone and stay there, I will long this pair, otherwise, I will wait for it until it drops to 82.80's zone .
  • #23,840
  • Apr 12, 2011 2:28am Apr 12, 2011 2:28am
long now, waiting does not give u the pips . =))

Quoting visser300
It looks like that the drop on the morning is just a spike. Let the London session answer this.

If it goes up to 84.70's zone and stay there, I will long this pair, otherwise, I will wait for it until it drops to 82.80's zone .
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