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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,801
  • Apr 7, 2011 10:51am Apr 7, 2011 10:51am
may be next week there will be a 9.9 earthquake, who knows
  • #23,802
  • Apr 7, 2011 10:58am Apr 7, 2011 10:58am
USDJPY Need to Break 86 to shot Higher here
  • #23,803
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:01am Apr 7, 2011 11:01am
Japan cancelled all tsunami warning and yen pairs shoot back up
motivation
  • #23,804
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:07am Apr 7, 2011 11:07am
Quoting futurebless
Japan cancelled all tsunami warning and yen pairs shoot back up
Why did the pair shoot back up with the cancellation of the warning?
  • #23,805
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:15am Apr 7, 2011 11:15am
Quoting six gun
Why did the pair shoot back up with the cancellation of the warning?
My guess is because most of the damage comes from the subsequent tsunamis and not the actual earthquake itself. The yen pairs falling were a result of the earthquake news and everyone expected a tsunami to follow.
motivation
  • #23,806
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:33am Apr 7, 2011 11:33am
Quoting futurebless
My guess is because most of the damage comes from the subsequent tsunamis and not the actual earthquake itself. The yen pairs falling were a result of the earthquake news and everyone expected a tsunami to follow.
The point I was making really was if something bad happens to Japan is that good for the yen or bad?

I would normally expect that if something potentially damages the Japanese economy it would be bad.

Assuming this is correct

Bad for Japan = Bad for Yen = USD/JYP Goes up.

If the drop in the USD/JYP was tsunami related then why did the pair go down with the tsunami warning and then up after the all clear was given?
  • #23,807
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:37am Apr 7, 2011 11:37am
Quoting six gun
The point I was making really was if something bad happens to Japan is that good for the yen or bad?

I would normally expect that if something potentially damages the Japanese economy it would be bad.

Assuming this is correct

Bad for Japan = Bad for Yen = USD/JYP Goes up.

If the drop in the USD/JYP was tsunami related then why did the pair go down with the tsunami warning and then up after the all clear was given?
Money moving to a safer currency. USD. Risk aversion...
  • #23,808
  • Apr 7, 2011 11:45am Apr 7, 2011 11:45am
Quoting Venice
Money moving to a safer currency. USD. Risk aversion...
Well the USD is shot to pieces anyway but the data today on jobs was not negative. Slight improvement.

Might make rate rise more likely - Eurozone rate has gone up and US economy is hiring more people. Never good to jack up rates when the economy is on its knees.

But back to my point. If it is now realised there will be no tsunamis of note with this after shock the USD/JPY should be going down, not up.


If money were back into the JPY now knowing Japan is not getting washed away with another massive wave, the USD/JPY should be going down not up.
  • #23,809
  • Apr 7, 2011 12:13pm Apr 7, 2011 12:13pm
Quoting six gun
Well the USD is shot to pieces anyway but the data today on jobs was not negative. Slight improvement.

Might make rate rise more likely - Eurozone rate has gone up and US economy is hiring more people. Never good to jack up rates when the economy is on its knees.

But back to my point. If it is now realised there will be no tsunamis of note with this after shock the USD/JPY should be going down, not up.


If money were back into the JPY now knowing Japan is not getting washed away with another massive wave, the USD/JPY should be going down not...
USD/JPY I think it's too hot for now. It needs time to cool down and shoot up again.
  • #23,810
  • Apr 7, 2011 1:25pm Apr 7, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting six gun
The point I was making really was if something bad happens to Japan is that good for the yen or bad?

I would normally expect that if something potentially damages the Japanese economy it would be bad.

Assuming this is correct

Bad for Japan = Bad for Yen = USD/JYP Goes up.

If the drop in the USD/JYP was tsunami related then why did the pair go down with the tsunami warning and then up after the all clear was given?
Traders were expecting massive repatriation of Japanese funds abroad to pay for quake damages i.e massive buying of Yen and selling others then the bank of Japan announced it will make 3 trillion worth of capital available and this then calmed the markets. The reason traders were so hopeful for a drop was that after the natural disaster in 1995 the Yen reached 57 which is very bad for Japanese exports and explains why Japan will try to protect the Yen and keep it above 80.
  • #23,811
  • Apr 7, 2011 2:04pm Apr 7, 2011 2:04pm
Quoting suhaim
Traders were expecting massive repatriation of Japanese funds abroad to pay for quake damages i.e massive buying of Yen and selling others then the bank of Japan announced it will make 3 trillion worth of capital available and this then calmed the markets. The reason traders were so hopeful for a drop was that after the natural disaster in 1995 the Yen reached 57 which is very bad for Japanese exports and explains why Japan will try to protect the Yen and keep it above 80.
Well that makes some sense. Bringing back foreign currencies and selling for yen.
There again as nearly everything is imported these yen will then be sold for USD.

Keeping the yen above 0.80 would be ensuring the yen does not appreciate, which is the opposite of protecting it.
  • #23,812
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:00pm Apr 7, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting six gun
Well that makes some sense. Bringing back foreign currencies and selling for yen.
There again as nearly everything is imported these yen will then be sold for USD.

Keeping the yen above 0.80 would be ensuring the yen does not appreciate, which is the opposite of protecting it.
In the eyes of Japan they are protecting it as the yen went from being 220y/dollar to 80 yen per dollar meaning Japanese exporters shift manufacturing to China which is a loss of taxes and could be a loss of GDP if money is not repatriated , the number of operations that remain profitable in Japan with the Yen at this rate is dwindling which causes capital drain and unemployment this leads to the Government using less income form taxes to fund more unemployed people.
A strong currency benefits countries which are less export orientated such as the EU whose members export mainly to each other using EURO's to buy and sell therefore less risk if their currency rises.
  • #23,813
  • Apr 7, 2011 3:12pm Apr 7, 2011 3:12pm
Quoting suhaim
In the eyes of Japan they are protecting it as the yen went from being 220y/dollar to 80 yen per dollar meaning Japanese exporters shift manufacturing to China which is a loss of taxes and could be a loss of GDP if money is not repatriated , the number of operations that remain profitable in Japan with the Yen at this rate is dwindling which causes capital drain and unemployment this leads to the Government using less income form taxes to fund more unemployed people.
A strong currency benefits countries which are less export orientated such as...
That also makes sense.
Good information suhaim!
  • #23,814
  • Apr 8, 2011 8:30am Apr 8, 2011 8:30am
Quoting J.Giordano
USDJPY Need to Break 86 to shot Higher here

I totally agree with J. Giordano, the 86.00 area is the previous high caused by the BoJ intervention, which took place on 15th of September 2010. A break above this crucial resistance level could possibly ignite a reverse to the continuous downtrend for the USDJPY pair. Bank of Japan intervened in the market, by selling Yen to support its trade reliant economy. However, the lonely intervention was not sustainable as the preferred levels lasted for three days only. The G7 coordinated intervention, of March 17th 2011, was not only aiming to take the pair off the trough below the psychological border of 80.00, its deeper target was to put the pair on an uptrend to help Japan solve its long term deflation issues and subsequently help the Japanese economy grow for first time since 1992. Hence it is highly priced that the USDJPY will reverse the downtrend, as long as no unexpected events will take place. An intervention from the 7 strongest sovereign funds in the world can be the cornerstone for a new era for an economy, despite its size.


In the cases of natural disasters, it is traditionally observed that higher volumes of repatriated capitals and remittances flow towards the suffering country, in order to pay for the cost of reconstruction. As such there is high demand for the domestic currency which by the market laws helps the currency to appreciate. Consequently the first reaction following the recent Japanese natural disasters was for the USDJPY pair to sink to a low (all-time low) of 76.12. However, such levels for the Japanese Yen are not favored by the BoJ, as its primary target is to keep the USDJPY as high as possible, in order for the trade sector which holds a large proportion of the country’s GDP - as Japan is an export reliant economy - to be able to maintain its competitive status in the world markets andto remain within its monetary targets.
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  • #23,815
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:14pm Apr 11, 2011 8:14pm
Hey guys,

why you are so quiet? We are at critical level at 84.20-84.30 zone. If this level is break, it will open a downtrend (down to 80-82 level).

ROCK the yen, guys.
  • #23,816
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:39pm Apr 11, 2011 8:39pm
Quoting visser300
Hey guys,

why you are so quiet? We are at critical level at 84.20-84.30 zone. If this level is break, it will open a downtrend (down to 80-82 level).

ROCK the yen, guys.
I think guys are quiet because of the possibility of intervention in the yen. So traders are just nibbling here and there. You do not want to be short usdjpy through an intervention. The most solid stops will not save.

If however the market tanks ie usdjpy we can look for buys knowing that we might get a helping hand by way in jawboning or direct intervention

That is why the thread is quiet - or they might be sleeping. We all need sleep
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #23,817
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:10pm Apr 11, 2011 9:10pm
Quoting Olu
I think guys are quiet because of the possibility of intervention in the yen. So traders are just nibbling here and there. You do not want to be short usdjpy through an intervention. The most solid stops will not save.

If however the market tanks ie usdjpy we can look for buys knowing that we might get a helping hand by way in jawboning or direct intervention

That is why the thread is quiet - or they might be sleeping. We all need sleep
that's possibility buddy. Btw, I read somewhere that 83 is the level that most cooperations in Japan will break-even. so I strongly believe that there is no intervention if it holds the current level but who knows???
  • #23,818
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:30pm Apr 11, 2011 9:30pm
I am trying to make sense of what the price action is doing at the moment. There are a lot of BIG statements hanging around this forum, but not a lot to separate many them from guesses, hope and the like none of which are the bailiwick of traders. Obviously long term views espoused are exceptions of course.

However, in the moment is where this kind of forum should have value. Despite all the talk of crashing I am wondering if what we are seeing at the moment is that push down to crash stops and get people on board for a big sell position then comes the big bounce to take account of what the BOJ was actually saying, ie:http://imarketnews.com/node/29195
  • #23,819
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:31pm Apr 11, 2011 9:31pm
stuffit I've opened another long position on the above logic!
  • #23,820
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:39pm Apr 11, 2011 9:39pm
Japan Lifts Atomic Alert to Highest Level on Radiation, Matching Chernobyl

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...radiation.html
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