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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #276,001
  • Apr 11, 2011 8:49am Apr 11, 2011 8:49am
Check cable folks.. who said last week that it was going to fall??

like we said, back to 1.64 and counting already...

bull solid trend.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #276,002
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:50am Apr 11, 2011 9:50am
Quoting bonus76
you can use it as a support and resistance to some extent. However that indy plays a part of my trading decision when i try to pick top or bottom. I also use volume and i reg indi, All that gives me a picture at what price should i take a trade. Depend on ur mentality that indi can be useful or useless.
how do you check volume, in forex therer is no indicator to show correct volume.
  • #276,003
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:54am Apr 11, 2011 9:54am
Good day to you,

Sell went in @ 1.6422. Solid counter trend trade. Not to be followed. Scalping. SL @ 1.6450 area.

Regards
  • #276,004
  • Apr 11, 2011 9:56am Apr 11, 2011 9:56am
Shifted SL-1.6299 . TP - 1.6520
To Your Success!!
  • #276,005
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:04am Apr 11, 2011 10:04am
Added another 11 Lots long @ 1.6408 Sl- 1.6299 TP-1.6520
Total 36lots long for TP- 1.6520
To Your Success!!
  • #276,006
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:32am Apr 11, 2011 10:32am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Sell went in @ 1.6422. Solid counter trend trade. Not to be followed. Scalping. SL @ 1.6450 area.

Regards
SL brought in to +5. Will let is simmer for a while.

Regards
  • #276,007
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:33am Apr 11, 2011 10:33am
Quoting ndsouz
Added another 11 Lots long @ 1.6408 Sl- 1.6299 TP-1.6520
Total 36lots long for TP- 1.6520
standard or mini?
Keep It Simple Stupid
  • #276,008
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:37am Apr 11, 2011 10:37am
Quoting ndsouz
Added another 11 Lots long @ 1.6408 Sl- 1.6299 TP-1.6520
Total 36lots long for TP- 1.6520
Congrats on buying what's likely to be todays (double) top, and at the end of a 110 pip daily range as London shuts down. Good thing it's all demo money.

Longers were getting in at the POC's shown; next opportunities are down at today's open and Prev day's high, assuming Sterling is on the take ...
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  • #276,009
  • Apr 11, 2011 10:50am Apr 11, 2011 10:50am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Sell went in @ 1.6422. Solid counter trend trade. Not to be followed. Scalping. SL @ 1.6450 area.

Regards
Good day to u too,
thnx for your info... i just stop my long from 1.6361 and take profit at 1.6401... of coz im not going to follow u... anyway this is what I see now.....
Im just wait for another long now... or maybe tommorow then.. coz for me 20 pips is more than enough... 40 pips..its a bonus for today...

thnx.
Attached Image
  • #276,010
  • Edited 12:35pm Apr 11, 2011 11:17am | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting chazzle
Look at this example it's even going with the daily uptrend - I'm not saying you would have taken this trade but let's say you did - trades are placed , as you suggest "30 pips away from eachother" it would have given you a 3600 pip DD assuming your stop was where "trade number 16" would have been placed - and what was the expected result after placing the first entry? 50 pips? 150 pips?Even a 150 pips expected profit is pretty small compared to the DD , which is more than 20 times larger

If you have traded like this for 4 years and turned...
hi Chazz,

thanks for the advice.I will have a look at the thread.

I've been trading like this for 2 yrs and so far so good.I started little and now I grew.it might seem chaotic my trading plan but for me it works as I am not as organised in my life to afford any other plan.
my biggest advantage here is that I can hold the line as I was a sportstrader and used to trade some millions per year and I don't get affected too much.

the longs I opened last week were good.I had 3 opened.
now I sit and wait as nothing seems to play my game.

I wait for a drop of 3-400 pips on GU,some800-1000 pips drop on GJ as they want to bring in more Yens,and some 3-400 pips down on EU.

But this is the short term view.the long term one how I see it is this one

GU to go up to 1.65-1.67 in the following 4-6 weeks.4 weeks it should reach the bloody 1.65

EU has to go to 1.50-51 in the next 7 weeks.

GJ I'm not gonna touch it for now.after the drop I will buy massively with a TP of 1.45

have to run with the dogs now folks.see you later
  • #276,011
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:25am Apr 11, 2011 11:25am
Quoting Johnny Depp
Good day to u too,
thnx for your info... i just stop my long from 1.6361 and take profit at 1.6401... of coz im not going to follow u... anyway this is what I see now.....
Im just wait for another long now... or maybe tommorow then.. coz for me 20 pips is more than enough... 40 pips..its a bonus for today...

thnx.
Good day to you,

20 pips is a great gain - in any language. We tend to sometimes forget the importance of small gains. They do add up. Better to hit and run - for me, anyway.

I will consider a long when price reaches 1.6303 to 1.6313 - but only if my rules apply at that time.The next 24hrs are going to be key to determine the probability of further longs, or a switch to short term selling.

Watch 1.6400 - if we finish the day there, price angle and time is still intact and we may well go higher still. But if we finish the day at 1.6360 or so, it may signal a short term directional change going into the rest of the week.

Like Beljevina said - the daily open is key.

All the best with your trading

Regards
  • #276,012
  • Apr 11, 2011 11:36am Apr 11, 2011 11:36am
hi every body, Is it going to break down 1.6380?
  • #276,013
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:04pm Apr 11, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting ghaziany
hi every body, Is it going to break down 1.6380?
Hi,

I am not sure how price will react at 1.6380 - although a S/R level, it is sort of inbetween for me. I am watching 1.6427 ( were I got in on the short) and 1.6320.

Inbetween these 2 numbers - I will not enter any new trade. But that is how I do things...

Regards
  • #276,014
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:22pm Apr 11, 2011 12:22pm
ok, thanks a lot

Hi,

I am not sure how price will react at 1.6380 - although a S/R level, it is sort of inbetween for me. I am watching 1.6427 ( were I got in on the short) and 1.6320.

Inbetween these 2 numbers - I will not enter any new trade. But that is how I do things...

Regards[/quote]
  • #276,015
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:50pm Apr 11, 2011 12:50pm
Good day to you,

Herewith the last chart for the day. I have marked areas-of-interest and briefly discuss:

1) Price is currently called back by the weekly open @ 1.6364 - this will be an interesting level to watch. Price may turn around here, or will be allowed through.
2) Lower down, we have a cluster of important levels. This area sure to be full of stop losses - for traders currently long. Here we have the following numbers:

 

  1. Last Week Thursday's high @ 1.6346
  2. Last week Wednesday's close @ 1.6329
  3. Last Week Tursday's close @ 1.6318

A run through the above numbers, may throw a spanner in the works for the bulls.

3) A bit lower on the chart, we have last week Thursday's low @ 1.6260. Interestingly, the 50% line of last weeks total move ( pivot) is at 1.6257
4) The 50% line of the month's total move is @ 1.6198.

As you can see, plenty of possible blocking numbers - should price attempt to move lower.

All the best

Regards

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  • #276,016
  • Apr 11, 2011 12:56pm Apr 11, 2011 12:56pm
SL shifted 1.6239 I am still long 25lots @ 1.6350 and 11 lots long @ 1.6408 TP- 1.6520

If it falls below 1.6280 I am going to input 14lots more. So a total of 50 lots..

Reason being i anticipated it will fall to 1.6280 to input more 25 lots but instead it went up boosting my confidence but i put 11lots for total of 36lots.. but now its going down.. so i wish it goes lower than 1.6280 to input the remaining lots of my quota of 14lots.

Either way im happy... just if it goes down before it goes up.. ill be a more happy guy
To Your Success!!
  • #276,017
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:09pm Apr 11, 2011 1:09pm
Sorry - gotta look at the upside too, before I am accused of short bias..

Also indicated and numbered:

1) Obviously a break above 1.6425 will lead the way.
2) However, watch for a break and the re-test - only enter after the 1.6425 level held as support. Watch for the fake...
3) Nothing much in the way to 1.6609 - just one thing... this number is based on price angle and time lapse - with the timing to reach that number by the end of this week!

So - 300 pips away... 4 days to get there... Possible? Likely? We wait and see..

Wish you all success

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #276,018
  • Apr 11, 2011 1:19pm Apr 11, 2011 1:19pm
Quoting TauTrader
Sorry - gotta look at the upside too, before I am accused of short bias..

Also indicated and numbered:

1) Obviously a break above 1.6425 will lead the way.
2) However, watch for a break and the re-test - only enter after the 1.6425 level held as support. Watch for the fake...
3) Nothing much in the way to 1.6609 - just one thing... this number is based on price angle and time lapse - with the timing to reach that number by the end of this week!

So - 300 pips away... 4 days to get there... Possible? Likely? We wait and see..

Wish you all...
Thanks Tau, I dont need confidence of other people. But i just wanna see what others bias are, offcourse i only trade what i think and my own decisions..

In any case. if it goes up ... bulls win if it goes down bears win... WE HAVE TO WIN!!
To Your Success!!
  • #276,019
  • Apr 11, 2011 4:42pm Apr 11, 2011 4:42pm
Last night I mentioned that it was worth keeping an eye on GBPCHF, that play turned out nicely as the market showed weakness later in the day with oil getting clobbered.

With China tightening and commodities selling off, it is worth to keep an eye to see if there is follow through. If so then looking for a continuation move lower by GBPCHF and GBPUSD (if dollar strengthens).

I wanted to share a chart I found interesting. De ja vu?

http://i55.tinypic.com/majntx.png

Check out that decline the last time this failed to get above this same level back in March.
  • #276,020
  • Edited 6:26pm Apr 11, 2011 6:08pm | Edited 6:26pm
Quoting redbeben
hi Chazz,

thanks for the advice.
Hi Red - don't get me wrong , it's not advice , it's just an observation - many ways to make money in the markets I'm sure - if you found your way for the last 2 years and it's successful , then that's enough for sure.

TBH , I wasn't disciplined enough at the time to trade this way and took multiple entries too close together , and became overleveraged ... leaving me at the mercy of the market - I would look at the trade and say to myself "do I still have the confidence in this trade that I had when I entered?" and would have to admit to myself that I did not , had to admit to myself that the trade had become a total gamble and then I would pull it - leaving me with a DD which would wipe out earlier gains , and yes a lot of the time would see the price reverse in my favour after wards ... I went breakeven for 6 months like this.

For me , the refusal to accept a loss led me to trading like this , and now start to try to think in terms of "accepting the risk" - I think it's Alexander Elder where I read about this - a lot of people call themselves traders and would say they accept a level of risk when they trade whereas in reality they don't accept the risk at all and that leads to people staying in bad trades and probably leads to other bad habits like closing early (I still got this one but working on it )

I did read about a guy who was successful at averaging down , but for me I got to the point where in one trade I felt like I had to have multiple RR scenarios in my head and be willing to accept whichever one presented itself and it got confusing - I'm trying to keep things more simple now and working on keeping this hard stop and equally as important , not revenge trading afterwards ...

Glad it's working out for you mate and all the best ... enjoy the discussion
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