Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I can't see any uptrend direction yet. I assume it will be sideway during UK-US session

listen that,
take a beer, a coffee, a smoke

what ever you want, but please dont bore me with tryin to say "goes up" or "goes down"
till now
6390 resistance
6340 support

I wouldn't assume anything. Especially with this one.

LOL, you're quite right. We still can't see the direction of this pair. So, it's better if we take a break for a while.

Seasonality the GBP tends to move up around March to about first two weeks of April and starts to show weakness in the later part. In the past 35 year history, this has hold true 25 times for a success ratio of about 71%.

We are already seeing sideways movement as it struggles to hold this 1.64 level on the daily and monthly chart.

http://i54.tinypic.com/dptym9.png

http://i53.tinypic.com/25f24yf.png

Considering that the BOE failed to increase rates while the ECB increased by 25bps. It is possible to see the pressure from EURGBP going up (that is if the EURUSD continues up) weigh down on the GBPUSD to confirm resistance around 1.64. However if the yen weakens and GBPJPY surges, this could create risk appetite and could help push GBPUSD over 1.64 as the dollar remains the abandoned child.

Volume analysis shows 1.63 area has been an area of support while majority of the volume is around 1.626 area. So as long as price is trading above 1.625, GBPUSD has the potential to break 1.64 if it continues to consolidate with lack of sellers to push it further down from 1.64. (Sorry for the run on sentence).

On the short side of things, if we cannot break 1.64 and there's a knee jerk dollar buying, I think GBPUSD could be the first bird to fall from the sky. However I personally will not short it until its below 1.625. And I won't be long until closes above 1.6428.

http://i52.tinypic.com/10ifpm9.png

As a follow up to my post above.. I wanted to look at another chart that could present an interesting short opportunity if GBP weakens further.

GBPAUD.

http://i52.tinypic.com/301k4cz.png

And here's a closer look.

http://i51.tinypic.com/210dt2g.png

Since GBPUSD is a bit of a drama queen and is not really sure where it wants to go right now, continued strength in the AUD and failure to rally by GBP could send GBPAUD further down. If it breaks 1.54418 and trades lower, potential for a move towards 1.513 for ~ 300pips.

Just something I thought I'd share for those considering a short on GBP.

BTW- I'm not recommending anyone take this positions. Please make your own decisions.

GBP weakening before London session, we will see the reaction from London Players in a moment.

Just looking around and also noticed the weakness in GBPCHF.

http://i55.tinypic.com/t9i7om.png

So this is another way to play the weakness in GBPUSD if you rather not play anything dollar based.

BTW if risk is off (if there's a dollar rally) then JPY CHF and Dollar goes up which could send this cross lower.

if it holds .6314 then we have 1.13 failed wave, need just break of todays high as confirmation for long

Bulls are trying to go up, but it seems that bears can still hold it. I still doubt that bears will prevail for now.

Good day to you,

Buying this dip. Will cut if we break 1.6300 with conviction.

Regards

Sell @ 16320
TP @ 16200

I dont think so, be careful .

buying at 6330 sl 6289 TP 6390

I close my SHORT position and now take LONG at 6333. It's quite dangerous for bears now. But we still don't know how far bulls will prevail.

SL moved to2 pips+ at 6332

Nice decision, since bears still have power here. I don't know if we will see 6400-ish but It seems that bulls are trying to break it up now.

I'm short for 20

I intend to keep my LONG for a short time because I think that today is quite messy and I already feel quite tired. Probably I'll rest while watching the progress today later.

H4 chart is just stuck in a range. Waiting for short but nothing to convince yet.