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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #275,901
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:17pm Apr 8, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting Ineedpips9
exactly.which is why I say my patience is not gonna allow me to watch pa go more than 25pips against me without doing something.The thing I have found to be the most frustrating thing about fx is drawdown.It still keeps me up and thinking "what if."So if his mm is good enough to allow such huge drawdowns,not blow up any accounts,and be green,I say congrats and how did you do it.

whenever I'm brainstorming to figure out a new approach to mm, I always run into a central problem: how can you allow for a reasonable sl and still allow for...
25 pips is ok if scalping , I have found you have to be really disciplined in the trades you take , a lot of people talk about 1m , 5m charts to scalp off ... I have been looking at m15 , h1 and h4 also to find stronger set-ups , and stronger S/R levels.

You have to cut losers very quickly when scalping - have a nominal 25 stop say , but if a trade goes against you - you can get out at -5 or -10.You have to be really quick on the trigger - and thats why its good to have the plan firmly in your head before you pull the trigger - so that as soon as your plan has been proven wrong , you just get out automatically without thinking

By all means go for 2% - 4% a day but do allow for days at breakeven and days at a loss - if you can get 10% a month consistently then you are a really good trader - think about it... 120% a year without compounding is an extremely good result many professional traders would give their right arm for - and yes consistency is king
  • #275,902
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:31pm Apr 8, 2011 3:31pm
Quoting chazzle
25 pips is ok if scalping , I have found you have to be really disciplined in the trades you take , a lot of people talk about 1m , 5m charts to scalp off ... I have been looking at m15 , h1 and h4 also to find stronger set-ups , and stronger S/R levels.

You have to cut losers very quickly when scalping - have a nominal 25 stop say , but if a trade goes against you - you can get out at -5 or -10.You have to be really quick on the trigger - and thats why its good to have the plan firmly in your head before you pull the trigger - so that as soon...
couldn't agree more.
I always use the 30m and 1h tf to find the overall direction and the lower tf's for entry points.
If I'm feeling a good scalp going against the trend (like this week,espicially today, I looked at anything short as going against the grain)I always cut the lot at least in half the normal size.
But on a per-day outlook, I still say 30 pips is WAY more than enough for ANY trader.I use to go for one 20-pip trade and blew up two accounts.Now,
depending on what I see, I can set it for two 15-pip trades,two 10-pip trades,etc. Usually, it's one fibre and one cable, if I'm leaving the house for the day.I have noticed that at least three days out of the week I can place a 10-pip trade on fibre,cable,audusd,dragon,ej, and usdchf and come back home after 8 hours away and see them all hit. I also notice that had I stayed to watch the pa I would've closed more than half of them as the drawdown was around 20-30 pips.The lot sizes are usually cut to 20% of the normal size when I have that many open at the same time.It gives around the same return money wise,but pip returns are sometimes almost double.Factor in exponential growth and my outlook seems good.
  • #275,903
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:36pm Apr 8, 2011 3:36pm
Cable is almost back to 1.64 to close the week high... Next week we will probably reach 1.65...

Again, those of you shorting take care, people..

Going against the trend in a bull market can give you BIG HEADACHES...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #275,904
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:48pm Apr 8, 2011 3:48pm
well its late in the day and i haven't eaten since 11am,so i'm out.
happy weekend to all.if I miss a post ill do my best to get back at it later on.
  • #275,905
  • Apr 8, 2011 3:50pm Apr 8, 2011 3:50pm
OK - thanks for discussions see you next week guys
  • #275,906
  • Edited 4:42pm Apr 8, 2011 4:18pm | Edited 4:42pm
Well just woke up making another 20 pips longing the GU from the bottom of today...
Also absolutely spotted the fact USDX was going tank a couple hours ago
as i said earlier The downmove in GU were Big banks realising profits as i do not see any dollar strength that explains this volume of downmove in GU near the end of US session, only explainable by Profit taking action Into the weekend period..
Now i cant tell which direction its going to gap, but this is definite
I am still Long Biased, Buying on Dips are to be my strategy over the next week.
For as long as the government is shutdown and budget talk continues we will continue to see the dollar weakness carry on... as Private sector banks in the US will face a possible trouble in liquidity Hickup due to the lack of Fed Bank (Fed bank is seen as the biggest liquidity provider to the private sector bank as it does stuff like printing money and stuff)

For me Government shutdown means Talk continues, 2 ways to look at the talks, theres still a potential threat to the US dollar strength.... If the democrats win in the sense that they were able to Talk the Republicans out of Cutting Spending from 60 billion down to whatever, this is bad news, that would mean the democrats wins against the republicans, issue with democrats winning is their possible IDEALS in economics, Democrats are Interventionist government who believe the government has responsibility to intervene in the market using method like QE, Tax raise/cut and government spending + government borrowing to Work their way to economic recovery.. well thats bad news to the Dollar BULLS indeed as QE/Printing money depreciates the US currency..

Once again im Bull Biased over next week and buying on Dips, will also be keeping an eye on the news too....

I hope i've been helpful over this friday session and looking forward to next week.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #275,907
  • Edited 3:23am Apr 9, 2011 2:27am | Edited 3:23am
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1302337331
Long @ C2
Reason
Trendline support crosses 50% fib, bullish PPI
Entry
 1.6345 @ the cross
SL
 7 pips below 50% fib, because if the fib level is break then the setup is invalidated
TP
 Conservative target is 38.2% fib, as at the point of entry there was not evidence that Zone A is going to be a resistance. However there is a second chance to go long, and this time, because 38.2% wasn't holding, thus one can bet a higher TP


Long @ D
Reason
Bullish divergence and 61.8% fib, bullish PPI
Entry
 1.6330 @ 61.8% fib, as at this point the divergence pattern became very clear
SL
 1.6318, 7 pips below the fib, also, if it goes lower, the divergence pattern will be invalidated
TP
 1.6388 Zone A, as at this point, it is evident that Zone was the strong resistance, and both 38.2% and 50% fib was broken.


Anyway, I only got 10pips from the first trade cos I didn't dare to go long again when price touched the 38.2% fib the second time. But the second trade was a good hit. Happy day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd08042011-1.gif Size: 49 KB
  • #275,908
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:52am Apr 9, 2011 3:52am
Quoting bguguen
Well just woke up making another 20 pips longing the GU from the bottom of today...
Also absolutely spotted the fact USDX was going tank a couple hours ago
as i said earlier The downmove in GU were Big banks realising profits as i do not see any dollar strength that explains this volume of downmove in GU near the end of US session, only explainable by Profit taking action Into the weekend period..
Now i cant tell which direction its going to gap, but this is definite
I am still Long Biased, Buying on Dips are to be my strategy over the next week.
For...
i think GBP downmove was due to eur/gbp pair not due to USD strength.
  • #275,909
  • Apr 9, 2011 11:12am Apr 9, 2011 11:12am
Quoting mdrive
i think GBP downmove was due to eur/gbp pair not due to USD strength.
Lol learn to read... i never said USD strength... i said USD is LOSING strength... same as saying USD is weakening...

Lol No you are partly wrong.. heres why... EURGBP or WHATEVER EURO are known for BIG banks to take profit right on a friday before weekend, Now you see EURGBP Falling says either EURO Weakening OR Pound Strength... Now cant be EURO weakening because the EURO has to be up from Interest rate news... hell Trichet announced interest rate may rise another 25 BP in June... now... theres no sign of Pound strength either so look at EURUSD first... EURUSD retraced roughly 50 pip from the high of friday session... and EURGBP FALL alot >50 pips or whatever.... so it seems like Pound has been BUYING up the EURO over last week and friday they decided to take profit... which is reasonable because EURUSD rose what like 400 pip...

Now Now.... as i warned EVERYONE here... We have to keep an eye on USDCHF AND THE USDX for the USD Weakness.... GBPUSD did exactly that... Retraced enough and continued up after USDx Dropped Hard... The reason why I SAY its USD Weakness playing the market, because 1. Fundamentally USD is in shit with the budget talks... and watching USDX drops is just a matter of time when... now to confirm Dollar weakness i was also looking at USDCHF... KNOWING CHF is the current safe haven currency... USDCHF Drop suggests a Strong CHF and a Weak USD... thats exactly how USDCHF dropped... US Buying the Frank... its simple as that...
You can argue otherwise but its been the MAJOR reason why its Dollar Weakness Friday... When US is having political issue and whatever dollar may be weakened reason... They go to safe haven like Gold... CHF etc... Well they would go for JPY but nah counterproductive to do that since BOJ is pushing down the Yen artificially... no point dumping real money on yen when its being held down artificially...

So Pls, ive been a fundy trader for 2 years... i know im 19 years old but that doesnt mean i dont know what im doing or that i'm inexperienced... no no, i do my research throughly hell i even pay for my School fees with my profit every single month love is in the air
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #275,910
  • Apr 9, 2011 11:33am Apr 9, 2011 11:33am
I had a great day's trading Friday and will wait and see what happens from 8 am in the morning as I still think there could be retracement in the pound at the start of the week.
  • #275,911
  • Apr 9, 2011 1:58pm Apr 9, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting _BBKing_


ok it's true, never try to predict market.
im only tryin understand what could happen.
this is same chart then previous post, saw in h4 little zoom out.

if price won't crash daily channel i see a possible hourly channel upway.
it did same thing coming from 5860 area till 6400.

im not dreaming
im only searching if there are good ideas
....
i quoted a my old post of 26 march
see there then see chart below.

price went below daily channel then came back up into hourly up channel (gold lines)

now we are at the top of it
see you at start of the week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gusdh4.jpg Size: 267 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #275,912
  • Apr 9, 2011 2:19pm Apr 9, 2011 2:19pm
i check price action on m5 chart
using a combo of sma 20-30-50-100-200 n ema200

on h4 find possible bottom areas, then search in m5 something like that shown below
ema200 (straight white) crossing up sma200 (dotted white)
price closing above them both
confirm comes when also other smas cross above ema200 n sma200

thats all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gusdh4.jpg Size: 190 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gusdm5.jpg Size: 179 KB
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #275,913
  • Apr 9, 2011 3:19pm Apr 9, 2011 3:19pm
can we expext the gbp/usb to go down a bit as the US gov. shutdown seems to be away?
  • #275,914
  • Apr 9, 2011 8:12pm Apr 9, 2011 8:12pm
Quoting sphinx8
can we expext the gbp/usb to go down a bit as the US gov. shutdown seems to be away?
It all depends of what the Market will think of this agreeement, its a 50% 50% win to either democratic or republican... you want the republican to win more....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #275,915
  • Apr 9, 2011 8:35pm Apr 9, 2011 8:35pm
Quoting sphinx8
can we expext the gbp/usb to go down a bit as the US gov. shutdown seems to be away?
there will be no shut down
  • #275,916
  • Apr 9, 2011 8:37pm Apr 9, 2011 8:37pm
There's Two Traders.

Trader A, Tells trader B he's going long at 1.6300 t/p 100 pips, trader B tells trader A he's going short at 1.6300 t/p 400 pips, trader A t/p get hit for 100 pips, trader B is down 100 pips, trader A laughs at trader B, next 2 days trader B t/p get hit for 400 pips, trader B tells Trader A he sees the bigger picture
  • #275,917
  • Apr 9, 2011 10:57pm Apr 9, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting PoundTrader
There's Two Traders.

Trader A, Tells trader B he's going long at 1.6300 t/p 100 pips, trader B tells trader A he's going short at 1.6300 t/p 400 pips, trader A t/p get hit for 100 pips, trader B is down 100 pips, trader A laughs at trader B, next 2 days trader B t/p get hit for 400 pips, trader B tells Trader A he sees the bigger picture
USD no Shutdown is not necesarily a good thing, right now we dont know what impact there is yet.. because its a 50 50 win for either side of the party, in this situation no one wins... neither democratic nor republican makes a win... things brings in the possibility of QE3 since Republican wanted a 60 bln cut rather than the agreed 40bln, meaning the 20 bln would be coming from government borrowing money/ printing money, i

So USD no change, rather than continued weakness im flat/weak on USD

However need to watch GU, seems like they may increase interest rate after feeling EU pressure... as Trichet announced considering another 25 bp increase to 1.5% interest rate, this will put GBP a run for their money if they don't follow suit....

So pls dont tell me bullshit bout trader a or trader b, as far as i'm concerned i am watching for a possible 200 pip retracement at the start of the week and a continued Bull move to 1.65 simple as that... I wish you all the best and not get burn like you did trading against me on friday, Me joining forexfactory recently doesnt mean im not good at trading, just means that id like to share my success lately....
As for me, i think ive had enough of your incompetence.... trading GBPUSD without keeping an eye out on USDX is literally suicidal... and yet you've wondered if GBPUSD was going to shoot up or not, well as i said on friday, WATCH THE USDX and on friday in particular i was saying WATCH THE USDX for POTENTIAL TANKING, and it did tank, oh yea tanked atleast 20cents sooo yea i hope your Short took profit because my long made 30 pips, oh wait was your SL at BE+3 HAHA good you still win money, but that'll show you who trader a and trader b is... Me being the latter one who wins the bigger pips
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #275,918
  • Apr 10, 2011 12:48am Apr 10, 2011 12:48am
Quoting PoundTrader
There's Two Traders.

Trader A, Tells trader B he's going long at 1.6300 t/p 100 pips, trader B tells trader A he's going short at 1.6300 t/p 400 pips, trader A t/p get hit for 100 pips, trader B is down 100 pips, trader A laughs at trader B, next 2 days trader B t/p get hit for 400 pips, trader B tells Trader A he sees the bigger picture
I believe it will be either sideway or uptrend. I can't see any downtrend for now
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  • #275,919
  • Apr 10, 2011 4:26am Apr 10, 2011 4:26am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

Attached the current 15 min chart with some notes. I have numbered points of interest. I am taking the wife and kids away for the week-end. Going fishing....so will not really be trading today.

1) Immediate resistance @ 1.6362. Watch for reaction there.

2) Should the above level become support, we may head towards 1.6398 ( the high of March) and 1.6400 ( Round number). Then possibly towards 1.6455 ( this is an important level based on price angle and time)

3)Should price drop back below 1.6362, watch 1.6345 as support/resistance.

4)...

Every day I read your analysa and your statement .Could I have your GU signal ? ( Buy or Sell and the price please ) . I have read your Dummie ... but still confused Thank you
  • #275,920
  • Apr 10, 2011 3:59pm Apr 10, 2011 3:59pm
hello all
forum is silent

maybe this is due to uncertain opening week.

so.... let market open, let market setup, then trade.
this is my advice

see you
bybye
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