hopefully some took both the cable and dragon short trade.Nice opportunity to play the 200ma from the 1M tf to the 5M to the 15M tf. Waiting to see if it confirms the breakthrough on the 15M and has a go at the 200ma on the 30M tf. As it is friday, anything can and mostly likely will happen, so I'm waiting to see a solid confirmation of the pa movement.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #275,882
- Apr 8, 2011 12:15pm Apr 8, 2011 12:15pm
hopefully some took both the cable and dragon short trade.Nice opportunity to play the 200ma from the 1M tf to the 5M to the 15M tf. Waiting to see if it confirms the breakthrough on the 15M and has a go at the 200ma on the 30M tf. As it is friday, anything can and mostly likely will happen, so I'm waiting to see a solid confirmation of the pa movement.
firstly,that was a beaut of a short
Someone sai eariler its just BB's realising there profits, if theres a fail test at 200 ma, I'm eyeing up a buy. ( If the Volume's right ofc)
Just my op,
Looks like it'll test right about now...Squat at the Fib?
firstly,that was a beaut of a short
Someone sai eariler its just BB's realising there profits, if theres a fail test at 200 ma, I'm eyeing up a buy. ( If the Volume's right ofc)
Just my op,
Looks like it'll test right about now...Squat at the Fib?
If by bb you mean big banks, then yea, thats probably what it is. We've a steady move for a while on cable and dragon for a while,and they would be almost crazy not to take at least a little profit.
For cable, since there was a new low on the last move down,I think it will at least test that mark again to try and maybe break through it.
But since it is freaky friday, and the close is just around the corner,I'm not putting any new trades on until monday.I'm also not gonna leave these trades open either.
The 50 fib is a good physicological mark, so who knows what could happen.
- #275,886
- Apr 8, 2011 1:10pm Apr 8, 2011 1:10pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
so.....for now I was right.now I just buy the dips on the way down to 1.62-1.61.I reckon a bear week to come but GU should reach 1.67 in max 4 weeks from now on.
at least acc to my calculations
at least acc to my calculations
- #275,887
- Apr 8, 2011 1:18pm Apr 8, 2011 1:18pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 11,327 Posts
so.....for now I was right.now I just buy the dips on the way down to 1.62-1.61.I reckon a bear week to come but GU should reach 1.67 in max 4 weeks from now on.
at least acc to my calculations
- #275,888
- Apr 8, 2011 1:26pm Apr 8, 2011 1:26pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
Surely you mean "sell the rallies"
actually I sold up there and closed at 1.637 and now I just buy wich each low where the price stops for a while
price will return to 1.64 and 1.67 as I mentioned in the following 4 weeks.
I can explain why I think so if anyone is interested.
so...in the meanwhile if price will brake 1.6358 it will go to 1.6385 ..but only with that confirmation.....otherwise I will just buy lower and lower with some 30-50 pips in between the trades
(I have to open them manually as my platform does not have pending orders ) price to go down to 1.62 or 1.61 but still have to confirm it
- #275,890
- Apr 8, 2011 1:37pm Apr 8, 2011 1:37pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
I'm back with more thoughts
a drop of at least 142 pips from todays high is my first target on the way down
and I hope for 70 more afterwards...meaning a first TP at 1.6280 and a second one at 1.6210 more or less
third TP will be open as I really have no idea where it will go.I should have had the calculations finished so far but my comp does not help me
a drop of at least 142 pips from todays high is my first target on the way down
and I hope for 70 more afterwards...meaning a first TP at 1.6280 and a second one at 1.6210 more or less
third TP will be open as I really have no idea where it will go.I should have had the calculations finished so far but my comp does not help me
- #275,891
- Apr 8, 2011 1:41pm Apr 8, 2011 1:41pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 11,327 Posts
..otherwise I will just buy lower and lower with some 30-50 pips in between the trades
I'm back with more thoughts
a drop of at least 142 pips from todays high is my first target on the way down
and I hope for 70 more afterwards...meaning a first TP at 1.6280 and a second one at 1.6210 more or less
third TP will be open as I really have no idea where it will go.I should have had the calculations finished so far but my comp does not help me
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- #275,893
- Apr 8, 2011 1:54pm Apr 8, 2011 1:54pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
what the maximum number of entries you will allow yourself before you accept the loss?
I mean if before when I first started the real acc in 2007 I didn't quite care (and I busted 2 real acc for that) now the more money I stacked in my balance the more cautios I am.
unfortunatelly I still have to work on my mind to teach it that a loosing trade of for example 100 eur out of 1000 is the same with 1000 out of 10000....
so the more money I have the less trades I make and the less volume I use
I'm crapping my pants as a matter of fact and this will stay this way for this year at least.
but a straight answer for your question is 10-15 before now max 10
my biggest advantage is that I have plenty of patience and I can wait for months for a trade to close my way.and if I calculate right from the start there are 99% chances to do so.
and again it's all about MM and this is why people loose on the market.
I assume that market is choppy for GU , it goes up and it goes down again. I made lost for about 100 pips , which I have gained during the asian session. Lesson learned Be cautious during US and UK session because they are pushing each other supposedly I assume US session it should be Bearish (In fact with the bad news for Government Shut down it doesn't weakened US$) that makes the market move upward and downward and eventually I lost the direction I expected that GU will move to above @1650 (but it's stucked @1630 - 1640)
The Asian/London overlap marked the high.London session took it down, and the London/NY overlap marked the low.The NY session (what we are closing shortly) has continued the upward movement triggered by the London/NY overlap.
A good chart to look at is the 15M tf to see what happened through the day.
You'll notice that the daily high was at a fib point that proved to be critical.Once it went down and crossed the 200ma on the 1M tf, I waited to see if the 24ma crossed it as well to signal an entry point for a downward scalp.Since it was so close to the daily open, I only traded half my normal sized lot.My tp was just above the 200ma on the 5m tf.
After that I was too impatient and went for another short, and as you can see from the pa I was taken out for a hit.
Once the pa crossed AND CONFIRMED the 200ma on the 5m tf(which just so happened to be at the 76.4 fib mark) I shorted to the 200ma on the 15m tf.
Impatient, I again added another short,but again was taken out for -20 of another half-sized lot.
If it weren't for dragon I would be drunk and pissed right now.
But you are dead on about the whipsaw effect that this pair and fibre have. For this reason i always have a larger sl on any trades on fridays and early mondays.Also, I usually adjust the size of the lots.
Just my 2 pips of what I see. I'm positive that others see things I don't.To be honest, I've been spending alot of time just looking at how I'm gonna try to profit from the rediculous commodities markets. The way I see it, if commodites(espicially oil) are gonna continue to go up,why not offset them by trading them?If gas is gonna be 4 bucks(at least) this summer,why not trade it,take the profits, and put that into the gas tank?Let it pay for itself.
But I'm getting too far ahead of myself.
Hope my ramblings help someone out there.
- #275,895
- Apr 8, 2011 2:24pm Apr 8, 2011 2:24pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 11,327 Posts
but a straight answer for your question is 10-15 before now max 10
and again it's all about MM and this is why people loose on the market.
If you have traded like this for 4 years and turned a profit from it , then I have to admit your MM and your nerve is truly admirable - to end up with a trade 15 times larger than you had originally intended and hold your nerve and keep responsible MM is quite an achievement - I tried and failed to trade like this last year - see the thread I started for some of the consequences
it's all about MM.....
my biggest advantage is that I have plenty of patience and I can wait for months for a trade to close my way.and if I calculate right from the start there are 99% chances to do so.
and again it's all about MM and this is why people loose on the market.
I wish I had that kinda patience. I can't stand to sit at the screen,watch a trade go against me for 20 pips,and keep my hand away from the mouse.I've worked on it and am now a lot better.My best practice of patience is to place the trade and walk away.
I'm now trying to figure a way to get all those losses from my first year of trading claimed as a tax deductable.
I'm about to get incorporated or get an llc,but I keep getting mixed information about this subject and things like trader status.
- #275,897
- Apr 8, 2011 2:40pm Apr 8, 2011 2:40pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
When I look at the 15M and 30M timeframes I actually see a typical day for cable,the problem I had was my entry points.My entry points were alot better on the audusd and dragon.
The Asian/London overlap marked the high.London session took it down, and the London/NY overlap marked the low.The NY session (what we are closing shortly) has continued the upward movement triggered by the London/NY overlap.
A good chart to look at is the 15M tf to see what happened through the day.
You'll notice that the daily high was at a fib point that proved to...
i agree when major pairs in ranging or in strange moves, i trade commodities.
finally today was better short gbp near 6440
but i didn't
week is done, and profits came!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
Look at this example it's even going with the daily uptrend - I'm not saying you would have taken this trade but let's say you did - trades are placed , as you suggest "30 pips away from eachother" it would have given you a 3600 pip DD assuming your stop was where "trade number 16" would have been .....
whenever I'm brainstorming to figure out a new approach to mm, I always run into a central problem: how can you allow for a reasonable sl and still allow for the daily percentage gain?
my goal is 2-4% a day.I've still yet to find a good ratio.So far, I settle for just being consistant.
- #275,899
- Apr 8, 2011 2:45pm Apr 8, 2011 2:45pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
....If markets didn't close in a couple of hours and there was more volume in the market ... this would have been a good long opportunity ...
and thought same thing.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
- #275,900
- Apr 8, 2011 2:51pm Apr 8, 2011 2:51pm
- Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Today is my first trading day! | 9,452 Posts
usdx below 75.22 november 2010 low
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction