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  • #417,121
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:56am Apr 2, 2011 4:56am
Quoting Astroman
You did not answer my question?


Does that answer your question:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=417152


To put it short:

Highest probability:

first down to around 4180, then up to 4360-4400, then down to sub 1.18 in the long run


Lower probability:

we have seen the high of the corrective intermediate wave 2 of primary C and are heading down directly to sub 1.18


Maybe wave red 4 on my chart is not done yet, since the 1/4 overlap is very small. Red 4 can go down to 3752 without invalidating this count.

But for me it is more probable (in the sense of the right look) that we have ended wave red 4 already.

Only with movement under 3752 we can be sure that the upwards movement has ended.


Once again:

I expect foremost a little drop on Sunday/Monday to around 4180, then up.


Puhh, hope that is getting the curve :-)
  • #417,122
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:59am Apr 2, 2011 4:59am
Quoting gdaym8
I see your logic, but wouldn't you think the AUD should be worth at least $1.50 with the HIGH interest rates and one of the only countries in the world which had come out of the crisis squeaky clean !
Hello buddy,
I have not looked much into aud ,but i understand it has a correlation with nzd and gold ,I'd imagine a whole different ball game .
great country and great people ,thats the extent of my knowledge so far.

gday m8 .wallabrawonga and shiela ,the film kangaroo jack is one of my favourites too.Not much help in trading though.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #417,123
  • Apr 2, 2011 5:53am Apr 2, 2011 5:53am
Quoting SerpentDove
My beginning was a little different but the result is the same. I needed the money from day one and understandably, given the learning curve towards any kind of sustainable profit in this business I have been going to and from the brink of burning out for almost two years, four years live trading nearly 5 if you count demoing.

I give a lot of good medicine in some of my posts, but I forget to take it myself, it's like I get traders' amnesia sometimes. I've posted many times about focusing on taking money out of the trading account and putting...
can totally relate, this is the cruel way in which I was tapped out of my first ever trading account, the stock subsequently moved from 60p to near £4, this was long before I'd learned the importance of MM and I had my entire account riding on it...

Was stopped a few ticks before the reversal...
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  • #417,124
  • Apr 2, 2011 6:19am Apr 2, 2011 6:19am
Quoting SerpentDove
I get traders' amnesia sometimes.
Man are you me, is you me, we are similar,.....insightful, just your brief explanation of your trading style, changes and emotions/experience is something a new trader should stop and think about....great post
Thanks,
Iono
Never been vouched
  • #417,125
  • Apr 2, 2011 6:37am Apr 2, 2011 6:37am
Quoting SerpentDove
My beginning was a little different but the result is the same. I needed the money from day one and understandably, given the learning curve towards any kind of sustainable profit in this business I have been going to and from the brink of burning out for almost two years, four years live trading nearly 5 if you count demoing.

I give a lot of good medicine in some of my posts, but I forget to take it myself, it's like I get traders' amnesia sometimes. I've posted many times about focusing on taking money out of the trading account and putting...
And Magix too, great posts! Take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #417,126
  • Apr 2, 2011 6:39am Apr 2, 2011 6:39am
Quoting rattyo
i did
good girl! I had a good week as well, take care Raz
Never say never.
  • #417,127
  • Edited 7:36am Apr 2, 2011 7:17am | Edited 7:36am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,

good idea to count the leg up as a (leading) diagonal. But your count seems to be wrong, not the diagonal part but the labeling of the diagonal wave as B.
good point... i actually labelled that C first because of the 5 wave count then changed it but can't remember why now :S.... i haven't counted the overall picture... but still have assumption this will fall soon unless we break above 4280...

Also inifinitus, if we were to assume wave 3 is now where i labelled wave 5..... then we should drop next week to see price move down below wave one which would be at 3850... this wouldn't work as it would violate the LD channel... but your count does make it work... also means EU can not go any higher than 1.4515...
  • #417,128
  • Apr 2, 2011 7:46am Apr 2, 2011 7:46am
@ infinitus,

sorry i should read your whole post before replying... you pretty already said everything i mention in my post... sorry buddy
  • #417,129
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:06am Apr 2, 2011 8:06am
Quoting jaylovin
good point... i actually labelled that C first because of the 5 wave count then changed it but can't remember why now :S.... i haven't counted the overall picture... but still have assumption this will fall soon unless we break above 4280...

Also inifinitus, if we were to assume wave 3 is now where i labelled wave 5..... then we should drop next week to see price move down below wave one which would be at 3850... this wouldn't work as it would violate the LD channel... but your count does make it work... also means EU can not go any higher than...
Hi Jaylovin,

thought that you accidentally mislabeled it as wave B

If in your count wave 4 now falls into territory of wave 1 you only have to adjust your channel. Remember: the channel is (as a help) first build with connecting top of 1 and 3. But when you have end of wave 4, you connect wave 2 and 4.

Your diagonal will be invalidated with movement below 3428.

Picture of Awesome Oscillator supports my count with the double three, since we had much more momentum from 1.28x to 1.38x than we have from 1.342x to today.
  • #417,130
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:08am Apr 2, 2011 8:08am
Quoting jaylovin
@ infinitus,

sorry i should read your whole post before replying... you pretty already said everything i mention in my post... sorry buddy


It is a complicated issue and it is worth to talk about it every time. :-)
  • #417,131
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:38am Apr 2, 2011 8:38am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,
In an contracting ED (as we might have here) wave 5 ends normally beyond the end of wave 3 and ideally at a line (or beyond that - overthrow) that connects wave 1 and 3.

Maybe the impulse up at Friday was the wave A of wave 5. So we could expect a pullback for wave B in the area of the heart of the wave A (around 4170) (that would be a 50% pullback). When wave C is then equal wave A we would land around 4360.

If we get an extended wave C we could see 440x with C = 1.618x A
hey infinitus,

i can't seem to get your wave count into a leading diagonal... which opens up other possibilities...???
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  • #417,132
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:47am Apr 2, 2011 8:47am
Quoting stewrigh
........ 'trade what you see not what you expect'(Predict)..........
Sometimes what you trade is what you expected.

Sometimes what you react to is not what you should be trading.

There all kinds of ways to try to beat the crowd and they all work to some degree or another. Whatever works ... works. Pick yer poison.
  • #417,133
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:51am Apr 2, 2011 8:51am
Quoting jaylovin
hey infinitus,

i can't seem to get your wave count into a leading diagonal... which opens up other possibilities...???
Hi Laylovin,

first of all it is an ending diagonal, since it is in a C wave position.

The fourth wave ended at @ 4021 (most likely), but yours ended at 4061 (that is the place where you placed your TL)

If you shift your TL to 4021 it will cause the TL to contract.
  • #417,134
  • Apr 2, 2011 8:56am Apr 2, 2011 8:56am
Quoting jaylovin
hey infinitus,

i can't seem to get your wave count into a leading diagonal... which opens up other possibilities...???


You like to have another possibility?

OK!

Here we go:

See my orange A and B after the orange X

Change the red 1 with a C, the red 2 with an X, the red 3 with an A, 4 with a B and we wait now for the finish of C

There you have it: a triple three ABC-x-ABC-x-ABC


Satisfied? :-)
  • #417,135
  • Edited 9:05am Apr 2, 2011 9:04am | Edited 9:05am
  •  gdaym8
  • | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: You Never go broke making a profit | 71 Posts
Quoting paul1
Hello buddy,
I have not looked much into aud ,but i understand it has a correlation with nzd and gold ,I'd imagine a whole different ball game .
great country and great people ,thats the extent of my knowledge so far.

gday m8 .wallabrawonga and shiela ,the film kangaroo jack is one of my favourites too.Not much help in trading though.


G'Day Paul1,

Don't forget Mad Max, Ballroom dancing, The Castle just to
mention a few, with the real Aussie humor.

In fact back in the early 1900's the AUD was worth $2.40 US.
How times have changed ! At $1.039 it's broken another record
since the currency was floated 28 years ago.

Most Americans have no idea what Australia is like.
We are mainly commodity driven, with the largest suppliers of commodities including LNG to Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan.
My state alone is 2.5 million square km's which will fit in the size of Western Europe.
Always remember "Logic" has NO place in the Forex markets
  • #417,136
  • Apr 2, 2011 9:44am Apr 2, 2011 9:44am
Quoting infinitus
You like to have another possibility?

OK!

Here we go:

See my orange A and B after the orange X

Change the red 1 with a C, the red 2 with an X, the red 3 with an A, 4 with a B and we wait now for the finish of C

There you have it: a triple three ABC-x-ABC-x-ABC


Satisfied? :-)

arrrgggg.... headache

going to enjoy the weekend... long week again next week working so no trading - but probably a good thing... will be back with more analysis next week... enjoy the weekend...
  • #417,137
  • Apr 2, 2011 10:22am Apr 2, 2011 10:22am
Quoting infinitus
Very good reading about trading hidden divergences:

http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Repo...3ffee873e5.pdf
Wow! Thank you for that link. Divrgence is a vital part of my style of trading and with that link it makes it even more. Thanks again, Mag
  • #417,138
  • Apr 2, 2011 11:03am Apr 2, 2011 11:03am
Quoting Fan O Gann
I know I'm new here and what I have to say means about nothing until I've proven myself but my gannish timing method seams to be telling me that the market is going to change. I'm talking about on the daily charts so I am looking for the market to move down at least a couple of days from right about this price level.
If the chart I loaded shows up the orange lines are lines that indicate a possible change in market.
tell me more about theese lines.
  • #417,139
  • Apr 2, 2011 11:37am Apr 2, 2011 11:37am
Quoting infinitus
Exactly my friend. But you can only have a trading plan when one uses his brain to anticipate the moves.

Forex is like chess, isn't it? :-)
Actually, No it's nothing like chess.

In chess a player can influence future actions by the moves made now and you can predict what your opponent will probly do next bcos there is usually only one or two best moves and good players can all see them.

With trading you have absolutey no control and zero ability to predict the next move IMHO. The best we can do is pick the high probability trades and cut the losers quick.
  • #417,140
  • Apr 2, 2011 11:40am Apr 2, 2011 11:40am
Quoting jaylovin
arrrgggg.... headache

going to enjoy the weekend... long week again next week working so no trading - but probably a good thing... will be back with more analysis next week... enjoy the weekend...
Me too, all this talk about wave ABC/123 is doin my head in - all I'm interested in is whether its going up or down and as I posted before - the trend is U-P. lol

K.I.S.S.
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