DislikedUnd ... schon irgendwelche klaren Vorstellungen ?
Any suggestions ... any thoughts ... any views about what may happen from here ...
;-|Ignored
Hi Mercy,
right now no clear understanding of the moves. But since the move up lacks again a clear impulsive structure, it comes to mind, that we are forming a huge corrective between 4248 (03.22.2011) and 4021.
Down from the top at 4248 I can count a big ABC down to 4248 (which can not be counted as a leading diagonal down.
The following move up is a complex corrective pattern which could either have ended at 4231 as wave B with wave C down ended post NFP at 4061 (all the moves in this ABC consits out of ABC, so this moves should be correct labeled as WXY) or the sharp move up post NFP is a part of the wave B (up) (or better part of the wave X) (since this post NFP move up seems to be an impulse but structure - so far - does not clearly show an impulse).
If the latter one is true we should reverse again on Sunday, only to go higher again thereafter.
If it is the first one, we should see impulsive upward movement on Sunday/Monday (after a small drop) for the final waves up.
Another possibility is, that we likely will see a triangle here. If that is the case we will see (starting from Sunday night) a down - up - down sequence between 4248 and 4021.
Thereafter we should see a final move higher.
I do not think, that we have seen a final high already. If that would be the case, we would be down in a leading diagonal with wave 1 ending at 4021 and wave 2 ended at yesterdays high. But I think the retracement was too deep for a leading diagonal (in a LD retraces are normally between 62 and 83%).
So I think we may go higher in the next days.
3 good targets:
a) around 4250 - respecting the very importing downsloping TL on monthly TF which connect the highs at 1.6x and 1.5x (including a bit of overthrow)
b) around 4282 - respecting the last top there in November 2010 and building a nice double top
c) around 4360 - at this point, assuming the whole move up from 1.18 is a huge ABC, wave C is 0.618x wave A. Since this assumption/target is a target of first choise too in the stock markets for many indices, it might here come true too
A last word for the "impulse" up post NFP announcement:
This move up looks impulsive until it reached 4215 (look at 30min chart).
Then we got a wave down, then very corrective up to the top, from there corrective down.
For this to stay in impulsive (5 wave) mode, the movement from 4215 should evolve as a flat corretion. In this flat correction we would now be in wave C down. This wave C down should bring us back to 4205 or ideally to 4191.
If we run Sunday/Monday through 4160 without making a new high, we are in the corrective scenario described above.
When we respect the area between 4190 and 4175 we should see new highs very quickly.
The situation is very murky here and we can fulfill a lot of scenarios.
After a while I even found a (relatively) clear way to label the move up post NFP as impulse. See picture.
So we have to stay open minded and react to price action accordingly.
I wish all of you a nice weekend.
Markus