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  • #417,101
  • Apr 2, 2011 1:30am Apr 2, 2011 1:30am
Quoting mercy seat
Und ... schon irgendwelche klaren Vorstellungen ?

Any suggestions ... any thoughts ... any views about what may happen from here ...



;-|


Hi Mercy,

right now no clear understanding of the moves. But since the move up lacks again a clear impulsive structure, it comes to mind, that we are forming a huge corrective between 4248 (03.22.2011) and 4021.

Down from the top at 4248 I can count a big ABC down to 4248 (which can not be counted as a leading diagonal down.

The following move up is a complex corrective pattern which could either have ended at 4231 as wave B with wave C down ended post NFP at 4061 (all the moves in this ABC consits out of ABC, so this moves should be correct labeled as WXY) or the sharp move up post NFP is a part of the wave B (up) (or better part of the wave X) (since this post NFP move up seems to be an impulse but structure - so far - does not clearly show an impulse).

If the latter one is true we should reverse again on Sunday, only to go higher again thereafter.

If it is the first one, we should see impulsive upward movement on Sunday/Monday (after a small drop) for the final waves up.

Another possibility is, that we likely will see a triangle here. If that is the case we will see (starting from Sunday night) a down - up - down sequence between 4248 and 4021.

Thereafter we should see a final move higher.

I do not think, that we have seen a final high already. If that would be the case, we would be down in a leading diagonal with wave 1 ending at 4021 and wave 2 ended at yesterdays high. But I think the retracement was too deep for a leading diagonal (in a LD retraces are normally between 62 and 83%).

So I think we may go higher in the next days.

3 good targets:

a) around 4250 - respecting the very importing downsloping TL on monthly TF which connect the highs at 1.6x and 1.5x (including a bit of overthrow)

b) around 4282 - respecting the last top there in November 2010 and building a nice double top

c) around 4360 - at this point, assuming the whole move up from 1.18 is a huge ABC, wave C is 0.618x wave A. Since this assumption/target is a target of first choise too in the stock markets for many indices, it might here come true too


A last word for the "impulse" up post NFP announcement:

This move up looks impulsive until it reached 4215 (look at 30min chart).
Then we got a wave down, then very corrective up to the top, from there corrective down.

For this to stay in impulsive (5 wave) mode, the movement from 4215 should evolve as a flat corretion. In this flat correction we would now be in wave C down. This wave C down should bring us back to 4205 or ideally to 4191.

If we run Sunday/Monday through 4160 without making a new high, we are in the corrective scenario described above.

When we respect the area between 4190 and 4175 we should see new highs very quickly.

The situation is very murky here and we can fulfill a lot of scenarios.

After a while I even found a (relatively) clear way to label the move up post NFP as impulse. See picture.

So we have to stay open minded and react to price action accordingly.


I wish all of you a nice weekend.

Markus
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  • #417,102
  • Apr 2, 2011 1:33am Apr 2, 2011 1:33am
Since it's the weekend, are there any special ops types here that are game for sneaking in to Castle Laphroig and hiding the key to Red's liquor cabinet?


No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #417,103
  • Apr 2, 2011 1:38am Apr 2, 2011 1:38am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Mercy,

right now no clear understanding of the moves. But since the move up lacks again a clear impulsive structure, it comes to mind, that we are forming a huge corrective between 4248 (03.22.2011) and 4021.

Down from the top at 4248 I can count a big ABC down to 4248 (which can not be counted as a leading diagonal down.

The following move up is a complex corrective pattern which could either have ended at 4231 as wave B with wave C down ended post NFP at 4061 (all the moves in this ABC consits out of ABC, so this moves should be correct...
So - lets get this straight and summarise what you are saying here - ''The trend is U-P'' right?. (K.I.S.S. folks) lol
  • #417,104
  • Apr 2, 2011 1:46am Apr 2, 2011 1:46am
Quoting mohan76
most of us do this mistake best way is secure some profit by moving SL maybe around +20 so u will have some think,. i do this 50% of the time , 50% of the time end up water.
Mohan, thanks for the pointer. Will make sure to setup my SL the next time.

Jimi
  • #417,105
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:12am Apr 2, 2011 2:12am
Here is a count which should bring an immediate drop in EURUSD to stay true.

Wave blue 1 down counts a little bad especially on lower TF's, so this count is to be taken with a grain of salt. I still favor the scenario for a further move up, or that the impulse up on Friday was a truncated 5.

But on the other hand it would fit very good to what we see in UDX. Keep in mind that with date 03.21.2011 there were only 4% USD bulls left. Everyone seems to be positioned already for a further decline in USD. That bodes well for a sudden move up in USD or a decline in EUR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 04022011 4h morning main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #417,106
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:17am Apr 2, 2011 2:17am
Quoting stewrigh
So - lets get this straight and summarise what you are saying here - ''The trend is U-P'' right?. (K.I.S.S. folks) lol


Hi Stewrigh,

would love to keep it simple, but it is not. We are at a pivotal point here and market tries every trick to confuse and obfuscate.

I explained some of the possibilities from EW sight. I lean a little bit in the direction that it will make a new high and then drop, but there is evidence too that we could have seen the high already (see my last post for this scenario).

Would like to be more specific, but we are more or less since 10 days in a huge sideway pattern.

Keep open minded and react on PA.........
  • #417,107
  • Apr 2, 2011 2:32am Apr 2, 2011 2:32am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Stewrigh,

would love to keep it simple, but it is not. We are at a pivotal point here and market tries every trick to confuse and obfuscate.

I explained some of the possibilities from EW sight. I lean a little bit in the direction that it will make a new high and then drop, but there is evidence too that we could have seen the high already (see my last post for this scenario).

Would like to be more specific, but we are more or less since 10 days in a huge sideway pattern.

Keep open minded and react on PA.........



Exactly so - just go with the flow.

Predictions are ok as long as you don't trade them.
  • #417,108
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:14am Apr 2, 2011 3:14am
Quoting trustbank
If you say so then where is the ABC correction wave ? Elliot Wave theory require ABC correction after completing the 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive wave !
a leading diagonal isn't an impulsive wave... its a correction.

depends on what TF you are looking for... i am looking on the daily... i haven't gone back counting but thought has it we are in a big B wave within wave 5 down... this is just another angle no claiming it to be right... any movement above 1.4248 and we are headed to 4280, 432x and 4360.... the 5th wave did overshoot slightly...

after wave 5 we could have seen smaller corrections higher... atm on the hourly chart it all looks a mess... as i say this is an idea of the overall picture... all see the RSI divergence on daily TF....i am looking for short signals now despite this going higher - for swing trading.
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  • #417,109
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:22am Apr 2, 2011 3:22am
Quoting attila
nah... it's just plain silly me thinks. and that being said, wondering how many people bought the drop at the bottom and rode it all the way up here..... all after this morning drop. so it's all relative...
i did
rat
  • #417,110
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:23am Apr 2, 2011 3:23am
Quoting stewrigh
[/color]


Exactly so - just go with the flow.

Predictions are ok as long as you don't trade them.

One of the reasons traders fail is, that they do not have an idea, where the price is heading after the next curve.

Predictions are an important part of a successful trade. "Predictions" help to sort out the less likely turns and to help concentrate on the high probability ones.

A prediction is, so to say, the first step for a reaction on PA.

You have to weigh the probabilities when you react, or better to say, where to react. Otherwise you find yourself more than one time in a bull- or bear-trap.

Best to you,

Markus
  • #417,111
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:32am Apr 2, 2011 3:32am
Quoting infinitus
One of the reasons traders fail is, that they do not have an idea, where the price is heading after the next curve.
So after the curve where is the price heading?
  • #417,112
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:44am Apr 2, 2011 3:44am
Quoting infinitus
One of the reasons traders fail is, that they do not have an idea, where the price is heading after the next curve.

Predictions are an important part of a successful trade. "Predictions" help to sort out the less likely turns and to help concentrate on the high probability ones.

A prediction is, so to say, the first step for a reaction on PA.

You have to weigh the probabilities when you react, or better to say, where to react. Otherwise you find yourself more than one time in a bull- or bear-trap.

Best to you,

Markus
I don't disagree with you but I've found that trying to predict what the market is going to do is ok as long as you don't trade your anticipated predictions until PA confirms you are right. As my mate EO used to say 'trade what you see not what you expect'(Predict).

Picking tops and bottoms is a mugs game - wait for price to react before you enter a trade.
  • #417,113
  • Apr 2, 2011 3:50am Apr 2, 2011 3:50am
Quoting jaylovin
a leading diagonal isn't an impulsive wave... its a correction.

depends on what TF you are looking for... i am looking on the daily... i haven't gone back counting but thought has it we are in a big B wave within wave 5 down... this is just another angle no claiming it to be right... any movement above 1.4248 and we are headed to 4280, 432x and 4360.... the 5th wave did overshoot slightly...

after wave 5 we could have seen smaller corrections higher... atm on the hourly chart it all looks a mess... as i say this is an idea of the overall picture......
Before you guys start shorting this - take a look at its prettier sister.

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  • #417,114
  • Edited 4:07am Apr 2, 2011 3:57am | Edited 4:07am
Quoting Magix
Well, for me, it was a hobby....
My beginning was a little different but the result is the same. I needed the money from day one and understandably, given the learning curve towards any kind of sustainable profit in this business I have been going to and from the brink of burning out for almost two years, four years live trading nearly 5 if you count demoing.

I give a lot of good medicine in some of my posts, but I forget to take it myself, it's like I get traders' amnesia sometimes. I've posted many times about focusing on taking money out of the trading account and putting in your pocket as opposed to focusing on building up accounts. When I look back over the years and think about just how much money I could have booked instead of holding that 1 trade that I was sure will go on forever and make my life easier... it's staggering.

The worst part is, I started out as a scalper living life on the m1 and m5 charts, and I'm great at it. Yet as a moth to a burning flame I eventually get drawn back to the longer term trades, which frankly I suck at, it's not the analysis... it's the attitude and patience for it. I'll never forget the the time I called 1.51 to 1.21 using a monthly chart on this pair. I took a margin call 6 pips from the very top before the non stop drop began... or that Dow flash crash, remember that? I was short 3 points above the daily close on the eve of the crash and closed it because I didn't want to leave trades open anymore from one day to the next, that shit scars.

"Where the problem lies if you have no idea of what you are working for, no sense of balance, no goals or needs to be covered, you end up floundering around until you become one of those who either cashes out of market because you are not making money, or ya eventually get consumed."

And there we have it... emotional imprints from once in a blue moon events that have no relation to the day to day work of taking money out of the markets have been f*****g with my head. Thank you for that post.
  • #417,115
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:16am Apr 2, 2011 4:16am
Quoting jaylovin
a leading diagonal isn't an impulsive wave... its a correction.

depends on what TF you are looking for... i am looking on the daily... i haven't gone back counting but thought has it we are in a big B wave within wave 5 down... this is just another angle no claiming it to be right... any movement above 1.4248 and we are headed to 4280, 432x and 4360.... the 5th wave did overshoot slightly...

after wave 5 we could have seen smaller corrections higher... atm on the hourly chart it all looks a mess... as i say this is an idea of the overall...


Hi Jaylovin,

good idea to count the leg up as a (leading) diagonal. But your count seems to be wrong, not the diagonal part but the labeling of the diagonal wave as B.

B waves can not be diagonals, no leading (LD) nor ending diagonal (ED).

B waves have to be corrective in nature. The can not even be pseudo impulsive like a LD or ED. They can be threes, flats, zigzag, WXY(x)Z, double or triple threes or triangles. But never be an impulse or LD or ED.

So this wave has to be a wave C (or maybe W). An ED could be a wave 5, but I do not see here the possibility of a 5 wave count since 1.18

A LD can be wave 1 of a 5 wave impulse or wave A of an ABC. Neither fits here.

Prechter/Hochberg sees us at the end of a double three. The first ABC from 1.18 to 1.428x, then the X wave and no the second ABC, where we are now in leg C.

I would like that especialy in combination with your (we call it now) Ending Diagonal as wave C.

When price builds a new high, we have to move your 3 into the position of your 5. When I look at your chart I have the feeling that the 3 should sit there already, since I have the highest reading in Awesome Oscillator at your wave 5 (and that should be wave 3).

Since wave 3 of this ED is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 has to be shorter than wave 3.

Wave 3 traveled 496 pips.

The low of wave 4 was at 4021, slightly under the end of wave 1 at 4036.

In a LD or ED we have to see this wave 1 and 4 overlap.

In an contracting ED (as we might have here) wave 5 ends normally beyond the end of wave 3 and ideally at a line (or beyond that - overthrow) that connects wave 1 and 3.

With wave 4 ending at 4021 and a wave 3 which traveled 496 pips, wave 5 can reach maximum 4517.

At 4360 the second ABC is 0.618x the first ABC.

The above mentioned trendline (wave 1 / wave 3) crosses Monday at around 440 (wonderful target) and Tuesday at around 4450.

The fib retracement 78.6% from 1.52 to 1.18 is at 4436. In this area I have several other fib confluences.

OK, so far I like this count.

Maybe the impulse up at Friday was the wave A of wave 5. So we could expect a pullback for wave B in the area of the heart of the wave A (around 4170) (that would be a 50% pullback). When wave C is then equal wave A we would land around 4360.

If we get an extended wave C we could see 440x with C = 1.618x A
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  • #417,116
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:17am Apr 2, 2011 4:17am
Quoting Astroman
So after the curve where is the price heading?
Read my post carefully and you will now what I think ;-)
  • #417,117
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:19am Apr 2, 2011 4:19am
Quoting stewrigh
I don't disagree with you but I've found that trying to predict what the market is going to do is ok as long as you don't trade your anticipated predictions until PA confirms you are right. As my mate EO used to say 'trade what you see not what you expect'(Predict).

Picking tops and bottoms is a mugs game - wait for price to react before you enter a trade.
Exactly my friend. But you can only have a trading plan when one uses his brain to anticipate the moves.

Forex is like chess, isn't it? :-)
  • #417,118
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:23am Apr 2, 2011 4:23am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Mercy,

right now no clear understanding of the moves. But since the move up lacks again a clear impulsive structure, it comes to mind, that we are forming a huge corrective between 4248 (03.22.2011) and 4021.

Down from the top at 4248 I can count a big ABC down to 4248 (which can not be counted as a leading diagonal down.

The following move up is a complex corrective pattern which could either have ended at 4231 as wave B with wave C down ended post NFP at 4061 (all the moves in this ABC consits out of ABC, so this moves should be correct...
really great work. in my eyes , support 4212 4190 4175 4150 ,resistance 4250 4280 4500 4585
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #417,119
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:24am Apr 2, 2011 4:24am
Quoting infinitus
Read my post carefully and you will now what I think ;-)
You did not answer my question?

  • #417,120
  • Apr 2, 2011 4:27am Apr 2, 2011 4:27am
Quoting SerpentDove
My beginning was a little different but the result is the same. I needed the money from day one and understandably, given the learning curve towards any kind of sustainable profit in this business I have been going to and from the brink of burning out for almost two years, four years live trading nearly 5 if you count demoing.

I give a lot of good medicine in some of my posts, but I forget to take it myself, it's like I get traders' amnesia sometimes. I've posted many times about focusing on taking money out of the trading account and putting...
Not going to chop it down any...I love this post...the entire one.
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