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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #274,901
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:49am Mar 29, 2011 4:49am
Quoting Jess leo
Ok done..now what?
Your long was part of a nice pennant on the H1...
Gone to a better place
  • #274,902
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:56am Mar 29, 2011 4:56am
Quoting nAVIN2007
check the width of the channel
OK - I like the chart and the targets. Have you seen the bullish divergence on USDX weekly?
Gone to a better place
  • #274,903
  • Mar 29, 2011 4:58am Mar 29, 2011 4:58am
Quoting smikester
Your long was part of a nice pennant on the H1...
Oh really? thanks Smikester
  • #274,904
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:05am Mar 29, 2011 5:05am
Quoting smikester
OK - I like the chart and the targets. Have you seen the bullish divergence on USDX weekly?
nope i havent looked at it lately but swissy showing massive bullishness on monthly..next month is shaping up for a big bullish move i feel

the very fact that price is sitting at 1.60..suggest bearish formation in progress...cable on monthly certainly suggest to me we heading much lower

lookkin at potentially 1.654-1.53 levels
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  • #274,905
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:28am Mar 29, 2011 5:28am
Quoting nAVIN2007
nope i havent looked at it lately but swissy showing massive bullishness on monthly..next month is shaping up for a big bullish move i feel

That looks like a pennant on the cable monthly. If that plays out we will be at 0.6
Gone to a better place
  • #274,906
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:34am Mar 29, 2011 5:34am
Quoting smikester
That looks like a pennant on the cable monthly. If that plays out we will be at 0.6
  • #274,907
  • Mar 29, 2011 5:47am Mar 29, 2011 5:47am
Cable have broken the support level and a 1.6000 round price, so hopefully we gonna have nice shorts today.
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  • #274,908
  • Mar 29, 2011 6:42am Mar 29, 2011 6:42am
Pivot: 1.5935
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.5935 with targets @ 1.6055 & 1.61 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.5935 look for further downside with 1.588 & 1.5845 as targets.
Comment: the pair is pulling back on its support ahead of a rebound.
  • #274,909
  • Mar 29, 2011 6:54am Mar 29, 2011 6:54am
Quoting nAVIN2007
what's so funny?
  • #274,910
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:21am Mar 29, 2011 7:21am
if it breaks 1.5937, then it will head further down.
  • #274,911
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:36am Mar 29, 2011 7:36am
Sometimes, the methods to produce results are counter-intuitive. For example, skillful pruning of grape vines is essential to the production of vineyards, and cutting back a rose bush promotes its growth. Based on experience, we can learn where cutting can lead to growth.

The following statement is at first just as counter-intuitive: A reduction in government spending will not slow job growth. In fact, the experience of the last two years provides compelling evidence that a reduction in government spending will lead to increased employment and output in the US economy.

Since 2008, annual federal spending less net interest has increased by $530 billion or 19%. Yet, even with February’s welcome gain of 192,000 jobs, there are 2.3 million fewer people employed today than in February 2009, the month before the Obama Administration turned on the spending spigots with the passage of its economic recovery plan. Over those 24 months, private sector employment has declined by 2.0 million. In spite of the rapid expansion of the Federal bureaucracy, government sector employment has fallen by 360,000.

Moreover, a comparison of these results to the recovery from the economic crisis of the early 1980s casts doubt on the Obama Administration’s claim that without the unprecedented increase in government spending, the recession would have been even worse and the recovery slower. In December 1984, two years after the Reagan tax rate reductions began to take effect, the equivalent of 11 million more Americans were employed, including 10.6 million in the private sector, and 460,000 in the government sector. Bottom line, two years of record spending and deficits have produced a 13 million jobs gap when compared to the recovery from the economic crisis of the early 1980s.

Why the abysmal results of the past two years?
First and foremost, it is due to a utopian view of government largesse, which considers only the benefits, and none of the costs. Such a view ignores the underlying human phenomenon that produces economic activity. A job is produced when individuals enter into exchanges that lead to mutual gains. As a consequence, they work for each other. Each individual improves his or her own economic condition; incomes rise; new opportunities for mutually advantageous exchanges are created; the number of jobs expands.

This basic economic proposition cannot be replicated by one-sided exchanges in which the government takes money from some, and gives it to others.

Advocates of government spending tout the jobs created as a direct result of the expenditures, but ignore the jobs that are lost as resources are taken from the rest of the economy, either through taxes now, or through borrowing now and higher taxes in the future. Every dollar the government spends has to come from those who would otherwise have spent or invested their money in the private sector. To the extent the money is borrowed from non-US residents, the money can no longer be spent on exports or foreign investments in the US private sector. In case, the net cash flow and net increase in demand generated by government spending is zero.

However, the effects do not stop there. Since government spending is not based on mutually beneficial exchanges, it often is wasteful. By displacing the opportunities for wealth enhancing voluntary exchanges, wasteful spending further reduces employment and the overall wealth and income of the American people.
For example, labeling government spending as “investments” in so-called “green-jobs” is just political spin to cover money-losing investments by elite government bureaucrats with none of their own money on the line who, nonetheless, believe they have an ability to pick winners. But, squandering money on expensive energy gambits reduces our wealth, and therefore shrinks the economy and the number of jobs.
The path to more robust growth is first to stop doing what demonstrably has not worked for the past two years. As I wrote in “Toward a New Economic Consensus,” studies by professors from Harvard to the London School of Economics are providing a growing body of empirical evidence that shows the combination of spending restraint and reductions in tax rates are the best ways to stimulate economic growth and employment.

The Republican proposal to reduce 2011 spending by $61 billion is only a modest start, but at least headed in the correct direction. Such a “cut” would merely slow the estimated increase in Federal spending for 2011 to $300 billion, and represents less than 2 cents of every dollar of the $3.8 trillion the Federal government will spend this year. Given the failure of increased deficit spending to create jobs, the claim of several pundits that such a modest reduction in government spending would reduce employment by 700,000 jobs or more is simply preposterous.

A second important step would be to prohibit any new regulations, and to get rid of as many useless or counterproductive government mandates as possible. Regulations prevent economic activity that otherwise would take place. And although many are aimed at helping the middle-class and those with lower incomes, new regulations on credit and debit cards are driving up the cost of consumer credit and leading to new fees on checking accounts with less than significant balances.

The combination of lower government spending and fewer regulatory burdens would increase the space in which the American people could discover opportunities to create mutually beneficial exchanges. At the end of the day, those are the basis of economic activity, job creation, rising incomes, and an expanding tax base essential to restoring balance to federal, state and local budgets.
  • #274,912
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:46am Mar 29, 2011 7:46am
We do have support at 1.5925, so a slow weak break below that point won't mean too much in my opinion but a strong break below 1.5925 and further downward movement is coming. Otherwise, a nice trade reversal over the next few days will continue to build momentum.

As a swing-trader looking for nice trend trades I continue to hold my long position @ 1.5995.

MetricTrader
  • #274,913
  • Mar 29, 2011 7:59am Mar 29, 2011 7:59am
in my opinion this week will be bullish for GU,GJ and EU

it's just a hunch don't follow
  • #274,914
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:00am Mar 29, 2011 8:00am
Quoting qwertymyfx
what's so funny?
did u not read what he wrote cable at 0.6..
are u people serious or clouded by emotion so much u cant see jokes
  • #274,915
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:01am Mar 29, 2011 8:01am
Quoting redbeben
in my opinion this week will be bullish for GU,GJ and EU

it's just a hunch don't follow
hunch based on what my friend..
  • #274,916
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:14am Mar 29, 2011 8:14am
Quoting nAVIN2007
hunch based on what my friend..
I will post some charts later tonight to explain what I see

but I just correlate GJ with GU and EU

GJ is going up now GU will follow and EU is on the verge of doing that as well looking at the indies.

from yesterday up to date we had 130 pips up move and we are out of range 131-130.25 on GJ

so....we will go up more I guess 'till we will go down again
  • #274,917
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:42am Mar 29, 2011 8:42am
Good day to you,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=274895

All still on track for a possible directional change over the next few days. However, a new low is not yet excluded. Just picking the best possible outcome trades. Patient and not greedy. Small pip grabs - they all add up.

Take your time - there are plenty pips to be made.

Regards
  • #274,918
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:44am Mar 29, 2011 8:44am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
TT,

You back, so am I!! I am hoping to catch around 157 if I am very lucky
The very best of luck...


Ta
ams

Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=274895

All still on track for a possible directional change over the next few days. However, a new low is not yet excluded. Just picking the best possible outcome trades. Patient and not greedy. Small pip grabs - they all add up.

Take your time - there are plenty pips to be made.

Regards
  • #274,919
  • Mar 29, 2011 8:51am Mar 29, 2011 8:51am
Quoting redbeben
I will post some charts later tonight to explain what I see

but I just correlate GJ with GU and EU

GJ is going up now GU will follow and EU is on the verge of doing that as well looking at the indies.

from yesterday up to date we had 130 pips up move and we are out of range 131-130.25 on GJ

so....we will go up more I guess 'till we will go down again
You might consider that USD/JPY moved up more pips than GBP/JPY in the same period today. That is unusual and that is the reason your correlation theory is incorrect.
Gone to a better place
  • #274,920
  • Mar 29, 2011 9:00am Mar 29, 2011 9:00am
Quoting smikester
You might consider that USD/JPY moved up more pips than GBP/JPY in the same period today. That is unusual and that is the reason your correlation theory is incorrect.
true,I did not even look at UJ as I don't trade it

but the correlation I made was made a long time ago and it is well set inside my brain and all my trades are based on this and It was ok for now.

actually I sent a post some time ago talking about a reversall at 1.639 and somebody asked me why as it just broke a R....but GJ and EU needed a 2-300 pips fall so based on that and on the analysis made on GU I went short with last TP 1.6060

now it happens again i my opinion and since the mail I sent with the up move there were some 35 pips up on GU and EU...following GJ


but as I said I might be wrong and UJ might be the key here ...I just try to keep it simple in my brain
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