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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,541
  • Mar 19, 2011 2:15pm Mar 19, 2011 2:15pm
as much as the yen is a safe haven, intervention may not be a one time deal for the BOJ or other central bankers. I think this latest intervention was meant to be a shocker and to get the message across. Over the nextg week or so, we may see not so shocking interventions, and less volatility in the yen. I am not expecting a dramatic drop like in 1995 over the next few weeks, but like I said a low volatile yen. In the coming months is when we will see real weakness and into the .90's we go.

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  • #23,542
  • Mar 19, 2011 9:50pm Mar 19, 2011 9:50pm
Any explanations for the EXTREME sudden volume on the final tick of the USD/JPY before the weekend, yet very little price change or volatility? Turn on your volume graph and take a look.
  • #23,543
  • Mar 19, 2011 10:15pm Mar 19, 2011 10:15pm
Quoting FFLaguna
Any explanations for the EXTREME sudden volume on the final tick of the USD/JPY before the weekend, yet very little price change or volatility? Turn on your volume graph and take a look.
Every broker MT4 or otherwise will have different volume, plus Friday closings vary - some @ 4pm EST (some 3pm) - below is a 5pm close with Citibank volumes. You might be referring to a 3:45 NY time high volume bar on your broker as well? Nothing but sellers towards the day's end. 150 pips down from the day's high - especially on UJ - is pretty spectacular to me, for this pair, and sign of a poorly planned and implemented central bank intervention. I will expect a lower open Sunday night too ...
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  • #23,544
  • Mar 19, 2011 11:19pm Mar 19, 2011 11:19pm
Thanks, a simple explanation.
  • #23,545
  • Mar 20, 2011 2:09am Mar 20, 2011 2:09am
will US intervention in Libya have any effect on the dollar?
  • #23,546
  • Mar 20, 2011 2:40am Mar 20, 2011 2:40am
It's a United Nations intervention, not US. Gadaffi was a very bad man. And somebody else will have to come along to answer the currency question.
  • #23,547
  • Mar 20, 2011 3:02am Mar 20, 2011 3:02am
oil should go up stocks down and with threat if intervention yen down usd up so 2 cases for usd bull
  • #23,548
  • Mar 20, 2011 7:50am Mar 20, 2011 7:50am
Quoting Beljevina
Every broker MT4 or otherwise will have different volume, plus Friday closings vary - some @ 4pm EST (some 3pm) - below is a 5pm close with Citibank volumes. You might be referring to a 3:45 NY time high volume bar on your broker as well? Nothing but sellers towards the day's end. 150 pips down from the day's high - especially on UJ - is pretty spectacular to me, for this pair, and sign of a poorly planned and implemented central bank intervention. I will expect a lower open Sunday night too ...
That was the question i've been asking: Have they indeed intervened by pumping YEN or SALIVA into the market?

If the first, then this means, it was absolutely not enough.
If the second, then we will see a drop in USDJPY this week open.
  • #23,549
  • Mar 20, 2011 8:39am Mar 20, 2011 8:39am
Quoting BurgerKing
If the second, then we will see a drop in USDJPY this week open.
Haha, I think the saliva answer may be correct. Price is currently 80.59.

In regards to JPY strength, coming off the bounce after the intervention we are sat on the 38.2% Fib.
The next significant line in the sand is the 12.44 purple resistance with a possible spike through onto the 50% Fib to clear out stops.

Over the same time period on the USDX, we have been in a clear down trend which is exactly what the USD/JPY bulls don't want to see.

On the USD/JPY chart it looks like the intervention is almost non existent compared to the drop through the 15 year low.
Which I think gave the ok for sellers to take over once again perfectly on the 82.00 mark (with help from profit takers of course).
On the currency correlation indicator, both the USD and the YEN are moving apart. This gives extra strength and reasoning for the continuing USD/JPY selling.
Realistically, by the the end of Mondays trading session we could have closed the entire intervention.
Whilst the USD is still weakening, the only way that the USD/JPY will get a leg up is through intervention, and who's going to keep financing a losing battle?
One of the first big support areas to test on Monday will be 80.55 and then 80.00 respectively. If both of these break easily, I wouldn't like to be holding a buy position right now.

Yen Futures H1
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USDX H1
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USD/JPY H1
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  • #23,550
  • Mar 20, 2011 7:33pm Mar 20, 2011 7:33pm
I don't know much about economics, but with USA's 'quantative easing'.....iow.....printing shit loads of money to bring the dollar down.....why does Japan not do the same? Flooding the market with Yen will bring it's value down......they want and need the Yen's value down.....so, why not fire up the printing press. The Fed used this tool, why not Japan????
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,551
  • Edited 8:17pm Mar 20, 2011 7:40pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting realjumper
I don't know much about economics, but with USA's 'quantative easing'.....iow.....printing shit loads of money to bring the dollar down.....why does Japan not do the same? Flooding the market with Yen will bring it's value down......they want and need the Yen's value down.....so, why not fire up the printing press. The Fed used this tool, why not Japan????
From this good article:

Quote
At the same time, a lack of inflationary pressure undermines the argument that BOJ debt purchases run the risk of spurring inflation. A government report this week is forecast to show consumer prices, excluding fresh food, fell 0.3 percent in February from a year before.
There are several good articles on Bloomberg from the last couple days in the Markets-->Currencies section.


Edit: Somehow the excerpt got truncated. Added the end of the last sentence.
  • #23,552
  • Mar 20, 2011 8:31pm Mar 20, 2011 8:31pm
i dont get it , YEN is rising , dollar is droping , yet USDJPY is rising . will there be a reversal soon ???
  • #23,553
  • Mar 20, 2011 8:35pm Mar 20, 2011 8:35pm
Quoting tankokjian
i dont get it , YEN is rising , dollar is droping , yet USDJPY is rising . will there be a reversal soon ???
What is to get? Play the levels. Correlations have been broken since the Japan mess started... just play the technicals on each chart individually.
  • #23,554
  • Mar 20, 2011 8:49pm Mar 20, 2011 8:49pm
Sidelined just waiting to ride the BOJ rollarcoaster. I think if we don't see action soon, the next will be at 00:00 gmt in 22 hours!
  • #23,555
  • Mar 21, 2011 2:35am Mar 21, 2011 2:35am
Quoting FFLaguna
It's a United Nations intervention, not US. Gadaffi was a very bad man. And somebody else will have to come along to answer the currency question.
Gadaffi WAS a very bad man??? HAHA
  • #23,556
  • Mar 21, 2011 2:48am Mar 21, 2011 2:48am
JPY weakness observed across the board following report from the nuclear power operator, that a pump in reactor no5 is now running on power from grid
FX COMMENTARY
Source: RANsquawk
  • #23,557
  • Mar 21, 2011 3:21am Mar 21, 2011 3:21am
On the other side of things, news agencies are widely reporting that the new estimate of total deaths is double the previously released estimate, now topping out at 18,000. The number of displaced is around 450k people, placing it about 50% greater than the number of displaced from the 1995 Kobe earthquake.

Why should news like that force the yen stronger? I understand some, but not all.
  • #23,558
  • Mar 21, 2011 4:05am Mar 21, 2011 4:05am
Quoting FFLaguna
On the other side of things, news agencies are widely reporting that the new estimate of total deaths is double the previously released estimate, now topping out at 18,000. The number of displaced is around 450k people, placing it about 50% greater than the number of displaced from the 1995 Kobe earthquake.

Why should news like that force the yen stronger? I understand some, but not all.
what about usd jpy? when it will come down?
  • #23,559
  • Mar 21, 2011 6:19am Mar 21, 2011 6:19am
Quoting Beljevina
VSA is only partially about volume - the bulk of it is actually about...
crap, rest of quote: about the span of a bar, the close, interpreting the (tick) volume in that bar, and then piecing it all together from various timeframes and interpreting the strength of lack of, in the chart. It is based on tick volume where each tick represents an order - lots of sell orders mean lots of volume, and similarly with buyers. Each tick can be of various sizes, but the big boys have to splice up the kind of purchases that move the market into dozens and hundreds of orders. Just because someone wrote somewhere on the internet that it doesn't work, doesn't mean it's true. I primarily judge for no demand and no supply and it works wonderfully.

The q above & below (from http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23517) got lost in having a weekend and not worrying about trading matters, I have read more and still not a lot wiser! (Sheet, can't put a quote in the middle or it gets truncated)

As an unrelated matter Kathy is going to explain the situation with USD/JPY at 4pm eastern which I calculate as 8.75 hours from now, ie 7am OZ EDT. Check here to register: http://blogs.fxstreet.com/francesc/2...th-kathy-lien/

Right, back to my q:

I must admit I had seen the volume (Ctrl L) but not figured it was much help. I have read a bit on this now, the first page here has a pretty handy explanation http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629 - I haven't read through the posts but skipping to the end seems like they are still trying to refine a tool that works when the human brain doesn't want to.

I am just looking at the 5 min chart on USD/JPY and see the classic "transfer to weak hands" happened at NY open but there have been similar moves without much change in volume, the fall 5 candles back for instance. Could you kindly just flesh out a little what you mean by "I primarily judge for no demand and no supply and it works wonderfully", certainly appreciate it thanks.

(Obviously the reference to 5 candles ago has disappeared in the ether, there was a lot of price change on no volume, also a lot of volume but no price change could be seen, this is a GainCapital feed via Halifax in Oz.)
  • #23,560
  • Mar 21, 2011 10:01am Mar 21, 2011 10:01am
YOUR COOL , LUV U

Quoting KillerWhale
My friend,

Money management is all that matters in forex.
You may be wrong in trading decisions 10 times in a row, but with the right MONEY MANAGEMENT you will still come out as a winner.
It will just take some patience.
I'm a real believer in averaging down. It is a big part of my profit.
But I use Fib's to support it. And of course Gann HiLo, Momentum and QQE

If anyone wants to know more about money management, I'll be happy to share how I handle it.

Shamu
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