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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,481
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:46am Mar 18, 2011 4:46am
Quoting VinceS
exactly. I am not afraid of making a few decisions in life and usually this does work well for me. However I have now well and truly entered the learning zone. I have confidence I will be OK at the other side, not sure how big a mess I will have to "fix" but.

I thought I had learnt most of the psychological lessons and a good 6 pack of trading technique. But the sucker into the long at 81.91 shows me no I haven't! What I was waiting for is the push down before the break high, stupidly I thought this one must be going without an initial pull-back,...
So you trade 250$ per pip, with a 440 pip S/L and think you'll be alright? Take your money, buy your wife something and read up on money management before you lose the rest of it. You shouldn't trade 2 lots here, you shouldn't even trade 0.2 lots like that.
  • #23,482
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:48am Mar 18, 2011 4:48am
Here's a perfect example of what's probably happening in the market as a whole:

Quoting PipMaxzz
It is advisable to hold on to the longs. May be a SL at 80 would be very safe. I am long from 81.36 and will be adding to it at every 25 pips on either side. Will close at 82 and wait for the next pullback.
Will close at 82 ??? There's an offer...
Gone to a better place
  • #23,483
  • Mar 18, 2011 4:53am Mar 18, 2011 4:53am
Quoting VinceS
Just as an aside here, speaking as "the old dog" in life not trading (53yo so not "done" yet), my missus is well aware of my issues and knows what a terrible effect this stuff can and does have on a person. Her primary job is to be supportive and hopefully I will "find a way" out, if not well we didn't get our house and life blown to smithereens by a tsunami did we so its OK. Getting an ass kicking would only diminish the prospects of a recovery. This is how relationships should work, if anyone is wondering....!
hey don't read to much into what i said, just 'trader' talk, there more important things in life than money and yeh whats happening in Japan certainly puts things into perspective.
  • #23,484
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:15am Mar 18, 2011 5:15am
this is a fast thread and there are a few q's to me hanging. I will try for a better "pic":

I started trading on April Fool’s Day last year with a $30k account and made $3,378.85 on day 1 in 5 trades (4:1 Win/Loss) so I was hooked! Since starting I have traded a total of 495 lots in 291 trades, 11 of which (10 lots) remained open (pre-quake) as a result of a key lesson I didn’t learn in time, they are long USD/YEN. Naively I thought the BOJ supporting the Yen meant something and they knew what they were doing, total bs, but I scaled into a stop free position on it! I have seen the devil in his house and learnt a lot about myself. A consequence of my errors is that I increased starting balance to 90k by making contributions rather than hit margin calls, this was done rationally but no fun and it would've kept me clear way below historic levels. If my account got deleted I would be very unhappy, but it wouldn’t “kill” me. Net closed trades to date (pre-quake) were $32k +$2k of swap. Net worth if I closed it down a fortnight ago was $4k up – ie. bank interest. I had decided to bale out on the next push up so I could get on with proper trading without this albatross around my neck. Thought I was safe and along came the earthquake! The first trade actually popped at 76.71 and they blew steadily to the last at 76.21. I have 5 of the original lots in 7 trades plus the 2 I just added.


The MM rules are of course absolutely spot on and the way to trade, it works for psyche and a whole host of other aspects. I have moved out of that arena now and, one way or another, will see "resolution". I just don't know if I'll have any cash left! I am trying to use skills and observations, not gambling, but am well aware of my own risks as part of the mob (an awareness that has kept me out of stupid mistakes when fear is king, but I haven't conquered all the "traps" yet).


I am in Oz and a classic eg of risk .vs. gambling was last night where I had to leave a 100% hedge on because that was the only way I could be sure of still having 10k to play with in the morning. This decision cost me $20k as luck would have it but the dosh is still there and easily could have not been, there is 17.5k at this moment off a remaining balance of 47k. I just figure i should mention this stuff as it is not often people will talk about the shitty side of trading, I am hoping there will be a happy ending but hope doesn't belong in this game so I jolly well better figure out how to create the sucker!!!
  • #23,485
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:36am Mar 18, 2011 5:36am
Without going into details I've had similar experiences to you over the last few weeks with good demo experience from last year which hasn't held up with the crazy antics since Gold fell through the floor in Jan but not really understood the need for a 'catastrophe' strategy. Libya and Japan nearly wiped me out too but like you am hanging on and after having made really good, steady profits in the past I know that with some reason to the market instead of this crazy sentiment driven trading there is light at the end of the tunnel. Eventually. Am long UY & GY with stops at 79.49 and 128.36 in case of these crazy stopkicking swings. Feeling manipulated but hanging in there. Hold tight!
  • #23,486
  • Edited 6:13am Mar 18, 2011 5:46am | Edited 6:13am
2011.03.18 11:55:13*BOJ Places Order To Buy USD If It Sinks To Y81.25 - Trader
-----------------------------------
is that possible? the order should be a limit buy order. a limit buy order can't push the market up!!! (that's an limit order! )
only a market buy order can push the market up!!!
am I right?



2011.03.18 11:43:45UPDATE: Yen Pushes Higher Despite European Intervention
-------------------------
that means during this day, the European bank continued to intervent!
But is the European bank has really intervented? We can't tell it from the PA(no big moves except the bar at 0:00 gmt)!




2011.03.18 10:49:21*Japan MOF Igarashi: G-7 Confirmed Yen's Recent Rises Due To Speculation

2011.03.18 10:49:43*Japan MOF Igarashi: If Speculation-driven Yen Rises Continue, Could Hurt Word Stock Mkts
----------------------------------------
so MOF fears! speculators are so powerful.



2011.03.18 10:56:09*UK Intervention Uses Government Forex Reserves
------------------------------------------------------
it doesn't have unlimited money!


2011.03.18 10:48:51*Japan MOF Igarashi: G-7 To Surely Act Next Week If Excessive Yen Rises
-------------------------------------------------------
crazy! too clearly!


2011.03.18 10:44:06*Japan MOF Igarashi: Lifting Dollar To Pre-quake Levels Not Official MOF Goal
--------------------------------------------------------




2011.03.18 10:41:57WSJ 2nd UPDATE: Nations Act to Put Brakes on Yen's Rise
----------------------------------------------------------
is that only at 0:00gmt, or through the whole morning and afternoon?


2011.03.18 13:01:106th UPDATE: Yen Drops Against Dollar, Euro As G-7 Mounts Rare Joint FX Intervention
------------------------------------------------
  • #23,487
  • Mar 18, 2011 5:52am Mar 18, 2011 5:52am
According to a source, speculation that Japan sold JPY 2trl in Tokyo is groundless
FX COMMENTARY
Source: RANsquawk
  • #23,488
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:04am Mar 18, 2011 6:04am
Quoting fosking
According to a source, speculation that Japan sold JPY 2trl in Tokyo is groundless
FX COMMENTARY
Source: RANsquawk
thanks! I just wanna tell where and when the central banks intervented the market from PA or from other resources!
did they continue to buy during the morning and afternoon or only at 0:00gmt(that big bar)?
  • #23,489
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:05am Mar 18, 2011 6:05am
Quote
DJ BOJ Places Order To Buy USD If It Sinks To Y81.25 - Trader

March 18, 2011 05:26 ET (09:26 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2011 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

It calls active communication or what?
  • #23,490
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:09am Mar 18, 2011 6:09am
Quoting bobowang
2011.03.18 11:55:13*BOJ Places Order To Buy USD If It Sinks To Y81.25 - Trader
-----------------------------------
is that possible? the order should be a limit buy order. a limit buy order can't push the market up!!! (that's an limit order! ) only a market buy order can push the market up!!! am I right?
Not sure what you mean ... buying (UJ) is buying, regardless of how it's triggered. Put differently, demand is created, drying up supply at that price level, and the bid moves up, seeking more supply.

Quoting bobowang
2011.03.18 11:43:45UPDATE: Yen Pushes Higher Despite European Intervention
-------------------------
Is the European bank has really intervented? We can't tell it from the PA!
Sure ... I have no reason to doubt them ... they won't disclose where and when, but one could probably figure it out from the charts. Things aren't moving along because lots of supply (sellers) is hitting the market.

Supply and demand concepts are part of the contents of this great book, which talks about Volume Spread Analysis. It's a tough read - and to get good at the details of VSA - one should read it at least 5 times. (It is a commercial & costly book, but it is freely given away by the copyright owner) www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf
  • #23,491
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:29am Mar 18, 2011 6:29am
Quoting bobowang
did they continue to buy during the morning and afternoon or only at 0:00gmt(that big bar)?
This is how I am looking at USD/JPY.
Anyone see anything different I have missed?

USD/JPY M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,492
  • Edited 6:51am Mar 18, 2011 6:29am | Edited 6:51am
Quoting Beljevina
Not sure what you mean ... buying (UJ) is buying, regardless of how it's triggered. Put differently, demand is created, drying up supply at that price level, and the bid moves up, seeking more supply.
I mean, the limit order, stop order and market order are totally different.
for example:
the limit buy order at 81: the dealer will ensure you to execute you order less than or equal to 81.(absolutely not higher than 81). so whatever the amount of the order, it will not push the market up.

the market buy order(if the current price is 81): the dealer will ensure to execute all you order at the best available prices. so that may higher than 81, or 81,or less than 81. if the market order is big enough, it will push the market up quickly!
so I think if the BOJ wanna push the market up, he needs use market buy order, not the limit buy order! so he just watches the market closely and when the price hits 81, he will put the market buy order. he can't put a limit buy order at 81 now, and set and forget!

am I right?
Quote
Sure ... I have no reason to doubt them ... they won't disclose where and when, but one could probably figure it out from the charts. Things aren't moving along because lots of supply (sellers) is hitting the market.

Supply and demand concepts are part of the contents of this great book, which talks about Volume Spread Analysis. It's a tough read - and to get good at the details of VSA - one should read it at least 5 times. (It is a commercial & costly book, but it is freely given away by the copyright owner) www.tradeguider.com/mtm_251058.pdf...

So when the BOJ/BOE intervent the market, usually they use small amount of money in each trade(since there is no big move), and you can't tell it from the PA.
And sometime they may also put a large buy order and push the market move up quickly (the bar at 0:00), we can tell this kind of intervention from the PA.

am I right?

and the VSA is hard to use in forex, since there is no exact volume data available in this industry. we don't know if today's volume is much higher than before or not! if it's much higher, we can say the BOJ/BOE kept interventing during the day.
  • #23,493
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:31am Mar 18, 2011 6:31am
Quoting bobowang
Put differently, demand is created, drying up supply at that price level, and the bid moves up, seeking more supply.
Can I ask is there anywhere one can see the bid position and market depth? That would be a pretty powerful tool, ie in a similar way to what one can see on a stock exchange?
  • #23,494
  • Mar 18, 2011 6:39am Mar 18, 2011 6:39am
VinceS

You have a PM in your inbox
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,495
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:00am Mar 18, 2011 7:00am
USDX looking for a double tap at the basement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.jpg Size: 125 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,496
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:02am Mar 18, 2011 7:02am
Quoting VinceS
Can I ask is there anywhere one can see the bid position and market depth? That would be a pretty powerful tool, ie in a similar way to what one can see on a stock exchange?
sorry, it's not like the stock market. I think you can't get them in forex market. maybe for one ECN, you can see them, for example, dukascopy.

or the EBS? BOJ trades there, I think. but that's still not the whole market!
  • #23,497
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:05am Mar 18, 2011 7:05am
oh look, NY opened, same dirty trick that got me on the German open!
  • #23,498
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:06am Mar 18, 2011 7:06am
Quoting realjumper
Noda will be watching closely
Just figured out that they dont eat chocolate, only sake
  • #23,499
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:10am Mar 18, 2011 7:10am
Quoting VinceS
Can I ask is there anywhere one can see the bid position and market depth? That would be a pretty powerful tool, ie in a similar way to what one can see on a stock exchange?
Look with DBFX, they trading plataform shows deep market, etc
  • #23,500
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:10am Mar 18, 2011 7:10am
Quoting bobowang
so I think if the BOJ wanna push the market up, he needs use market buy order, not the limit buy order! so he just watches the market closely and when the price hits 81, he will put the market buy order. he can't put a limit buy order at 81 now, and set and forget!

am I right?

So when the BOJ/BOE intervent the market, usually they use small amount of money in each trade(since there is no big move), and you can't tell it from the PA....
It's a different world that the central banks play in. They're all buys. I can't tell you what systems they use, but it's strictly demand and supply.

Quoting bobowang
and the VSA is hard to use in forex, since there is no exact volume data available in this industry. we don't know if today's volume is much higher than before or not! if it's much higher, we can say the BOJ/BOE kept interventing during the day.
No, it works quite well. If you're using MT4, it's good to know who your broker's liquidity provider and that you are getting a proper volume information back from your broker. Most of the top-tier brokers do well enough in MT4.

VSA is only partially about volume - the bulk of it is actually about the span of a bar, the close, interpreting the (tick) volume in that bar, and then piecing it all together from various timeframes and interpreting the strength of lack of, in the chart. It is based on tick volume where each tick represents an order - lots of sell orders mean lots of volume, and similarly with buyers. Each tick can be of various sizes, but the big boys have to splice up the kind of purchases that move the market into dozens and hundreds of orders. Just because someone wrote somewhere on the internet that it doesn't work, doesn't mean it's true. I primarily judge for no demand and no supply and it works wonderfully.


Quoting VinceS
Can I ask is there anywhere one can see the bid position and market depth? That would be a pretty powerful tool, ie in a similar way to what one can see on a stock exchange?
A Reuter's terminal will give this type of data. It's about $3K/month and has a minimum trading quota, and account size of probably $250K minimum. Brokers pretend to offer it through various platforms, but it's not even close.
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