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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,501
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:19am Mar 18, 2011 7:19am
Quoting Larseg
Just figured out that they dont eat chocolate, only sake
But they do make some pretty good chocolate though.....and the sake isn't bad either
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,502
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:24am Mar 18, 2011 7:24am
2011.03.18 13:08:58MARKET TALK: Canada Intervention Not Seen Before Regular Session
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how to see it? in the dealer's order book?



2011.03.18 13:14:31Speculation That Japan Sold Y2 Tln Friday In Tokyo Is Groundless - Source
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2011.03.18 13:30:15MARKET TALK: Broad-Based Rally On G7 Currency Intervention
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that's intervention? we can't tell it from PA. maybe from the dealer's order book! we can't get the book.


2011.03.18 13:49:083rd UPDATE: European Intervention Tames Yen, But Little Further Weakness
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really? too subjective.


2011.03.18 14:01:59*Bank Of Canada Joins Joint Effort By Selling Japanese Yen
2011.03.18 14:03:12*Fed Buys Dollars Vs Yen
2011.03.18 14:08:46*Fed Confirms Intervention, Buying Dollars Vs Yen
2011.03.18 14:17:09*BOC Intervention Likely 'Not As Big As People Had Anticipated' - BMO

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still no big moves. the Fed.and BOC don't seem to put a lot of money here.


2011.03.18 14:18:19Bank Of Canada Intervenes, Buys Canadian Dollars Versus Yen
2011.03.18 14:14:50*Canada Dollar Retreats Vs Yen After Intervention Spike, Now At Y82.94
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that spike is intervention????? the little spike??? if you don't say, I can't tell!

2011.03.18 14:06:57*Bank Of Canada: Intervention Amount To Be Disclosed In Govt Reserves Data
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let's wait to see the data.
  • #23,503
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:31am Mar 18, 2011 7:31am
2011.03.18 14:18:19Bank Of Canada Intervenes, Buys Canadian Dollars Versus Yen
2011.03.18 14:14:50*Canada Dollar Retreats Vs Yen After Intervention Spike, Now At Y82.94

as the news said, this bar is intervention from bank of Canada ! ?
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  • #23,504
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:49am Mar 18, 2011 7:49am
Quoting Beljevina
A Reuter's terminal will give this type of data. It's about $3K/month and has a minimum trading quota, and account size of probably $250K minimum. Brokers pretend to offer it through various platforms, but it's not even close.
Oh, so that's going to be impractical....! I am remembering I have the Commitments Of Traders weekly reports of positions held in the "to do" analysis box. There is a simple explanation of this here: http://www.babypips.com/school/3-sim...ot-report.html and adjacent pages for anyone else that wants to play.
  • #23,505
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:51am Mar 18, 2011 7:51am
Quoting VinceS
this is a fast thread and there are a few q's to me hanging. I will try for a better "pic":

I started trading on April Fool’s Day last year with a $30k account and made $3,378.85 on day 1 in 5 trades (4:1 Win/Loss) so I was hooked! Since starting I have traded a total of 495 lots in 291 trades, 11 of which (10 lots) remained open (pre-quake) as a result of a key lesson I didn’t learn in time, they are long USD/YEN. Naively I thought the BOJ supporting the Yen meant something and they knew what they were doing, total bs, but I scaled into a stop...
OMG Oz, usually when a new trader got excited because is 10%-30% up in a few days o trades, its only a matter of time to lost the account maybe days o weeks. Because they become over confidence and dont want to take losses, and open very large lot positions.

You invest 90K, now u have 17.5k of Equity and of 47k Balance. but u are 100% Hedge? this is going to be difficult

I was long in UJ but hold all the move down without problem
  • #23,506
  • Mar 18, 2011 7:58am Mar 18, 2011 7:58am
2011.03.18 14:53:27MARKET TALK: Federal Reserve Intervention Size Seen As 'Modest'
2011.03.18 14:55:52Fed Intervenes; Buys Dollars, Sells Yen In New York Trading

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no big moves in new york session！are you guys really central banks? show us your power and money!
Maybe the sellers are very powerful, if there were no intervention, the usdjpy would have gone down.
  • #23,507
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:03am Mar 18, 2011 8:03am
Yen futures look like they want to break through resistance. edit, just broke resistance.
Equity futures are rising which normally brings weakness to the USD.

Yen Futures M5
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  • #23,508
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:11am Mar 18, 2011 8:11am
Quoting VinceS
Oh, so that's going to be impractical....! I am remembering I have the Commitments Of Traders weekly reports of positions held in the "to do" analysis box. There is a simple explanation of this here: http://www.babypips.com/school/3-sim...ot-report.html and adjacent pages for anyone else that wants to play.
The reality is that the COT is useless. It's yesterday's news, having absolutely nothing to do with future potential movement. People slice it, dice it, and do all kinds of things with it, but in today's wolf market, it can't possibly be helpful.
  • #23,509
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:14am Mar 18, 2011 8:14am
Quoting fosking
Equity futures are rising which normally brings weakness to the USD.
USDX could be about to jump off the cliff.

USDX H4
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  • #23,510
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:18am Mar 18, 2011 8:18am
Quoting Beljevina
For UJ, I guess once it passes 82.03, 82.56 is in resistance, and then it has to mount over 83. I'd expect at least an overshoot for 83.29. 83.9 would be rather surprising, certainly for today since, they've left it open ended on timing & a likelihood to intervene again over the weeks. For GY, once 132.94 is exceeded, I'm looking for 134.8 - am pretty optimistic in GY, given GU is likely to propel it there.
So far, something doesn't jive with this intervention. It doesn't sound like sufficient funds have been committed, and the CB's are not disclosing how much they threw at it. Judging by the paltry responses, it was no where near enough, and their bluff has been called. They've basically gotten UJ to where it was last Wednesday. The Sept 2010 intervention was the real deal and the rise continued through London & NY in a clear manner, with higher lows, and higher highs.

Here's Kathy's view on it; hopefully the Fed will hit it again - probably a good idea to be on the trigger finger for profit. If they do not hit the shorters at least once or twice more, it will have been a poor show, further embolding the shorts, IMO. http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...=1300453691297 (Below is an extract)

FX Joint Intervention - A One Hit Wonder?

First we must applaud Japan for successfully convincing its G7 partners to jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market for the time in more than 10 years. It must have not been a very difficult decision considering that the Finance Ministers and Central Bankers only deliberated for 2 hours. Probably half of that time was spent drafting the statement and figuring out the logistics. Having not been able to assist much on the rescue operation or the nuclear crisis, coordinated intervention was one of the few ways that the G7 could provide support for Japan. Everyone involved knew the historical significance of decision and the message that it would send to the market but given the dramatic turn of events in Japan, intervention was expected.

Yet considering the magnitude of the G7's decision, the rally in the Yen crosses can be considered limited. USD/JPY surged when the statement was released last night from 79 to 81.50 but since then it has treaded water. The Bank of Japan came into the market last night, the ECB followed suit at 8am London time and there are signs that the Fed joined in at around 8am NY Time. Considering that the G7 statement explicitly commits to only one day of intervention, we should see more buying throughout the day. The ECB intervened a second time at 11am in London and we expect the Fed to intervene multiple times today to buy USD/JPY as well. As a result, there is more upside than downside potential in the Yen crosses today.

  • #23,511
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:26am Mar 18, 2011 8:26am
Quoting Beljevina
VSA is only partially about volume - the bulk of it is actually about the span of a bar, the close, interpreting the (tick) volume in that bar, and then piecing it all together from various timeframes and interpreting the strength of lack of, in the chart. It is based on tick volume where each tick represents an order - lots of sell orders mean lots of volume, and similarly with buyers. Each tick can be of various sizes, but the big boys have to splice up the kind of purchases that move the market into dozens and hundreds of orders. Just because...
I must admit I had seen the volume (Ctrl L) but not figured it was much help. I have read a bit on this now, the first page here has a pretty handy explanation http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=157629 - I haven't read through the posts but skipping to the end seems like they are still trying to refine a tool that works when the human brain doesn't want to.

I am just looking at the 5 min chart on USD/JPY and see the classic "transfer to weak hands" happened at NY open but there have been similar moves without much change in volume, the fall 5 candles back for instance. Could you kindly just flesh out a little what you mean by "I primarily judge for no demand and no supply and it works wonderfully", certainly appreciate it thanks.
  • #23,512
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:27am Mar 18, 2011 8:27am
Quoting Beljevina
So far, something doesn't jive with this intervention. It doesn't sound like sufficient funds have been committed, and the CB's are not disclosing how much they threw at it. Judging by the paltry responses, it was no where near enough, and their bluff has been called. They've basically gotten UJ to where it was last Wednesday. The Sept 2010 intervention was the real deal and the rise continued through London & NY in a clear manner, with higher lows, and higher highs.

Here's Kathy's view on it; hopefully the Fed will hit it again - probably...
Is it possible that their strategy to keep the Yen at a certain price, ie, pre-earthquake date? Since we are coming to the weekend, the Jap Gov buys itself more time determining the level of damage of the reactor?
  • #23,513
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:28am Mar 18, 2011 8:28am
Quoting Beljevina
So far, something doesn't jive with this intervention. It doesn't sound like sufficient funds have been committed, and the CB's are not disclosing how much they threw at it. Judging by the paltry responses, it was no where near enough, and their bluff has been called. They've basically gotten UJ to where it was last Wednesday. The Sept 2010 intervention was the real deal and the rise continued through London & NY in a clear manner, with higher lows, and higher highs.

Here's Kathy's view on it; hopefully the Fed will hit it again - probably...
Yes, after Septembers effort it does seem a bit micky mouse.....especially at a time when Japan could really use a good slice of international help. All I can conclude is that the various banks aren't prepared to fire all their bullets at once. Given the opening salvo from BOJ, perhaps the others are merely 'holding the fort' until BOJ has another crack. Dunno.....just spit-balling!! Japan has a bank holiday on Monday too.....although in Sept I think Noda kept a crew on over the weekend, so the BOJ holiday may not really be a holiday at all.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,514
  • Edited 8:50am Mar 18, 2011 8:34am | Edited 8:50am
2011.03.18 15:14:20*Nomura Estimates BOJ Intervention At Y2 Trillion; $5 Billion Across Europe
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what's that mean?
BoJ used y2 tln. and BoE used $5 bln?
or BOJ used y2 tln in asian session and $5 bln in european session?


2011.03.18 15:25:48*Three US Banks Say Fed Intervention Totaled $50 Million
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unbelievable!


2011.03.18 15:38:00MARKET TALK: Intervention Could Be Boon For Some Treasurys
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  • #23,515
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:45am Mar 18, 2011 8:45am
so great!!!
then each of the Central Banks only intervented the market once or twice during the day.

Quoting Beljevina
So far, something doesn't jive with this intervention. It doesn't sound like sufficient funds have been committed, and the CB's are not disclosing how much they threw at it. Judging by the paltry responses, it was no where near enough, and their bluff has been called. They've basically gotten UJ to where it was last Wednesday. The Sept 2010 intervention was the real deal and the rise continued through London & NY in a clear manner, with higher lows, and higher highs.

Here's Kathy's view on it; hopefully the Fed will hit it again - probably...
  • #23,516
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:51am Mar 18, 2011 8:51am
Who wants some intervention?!!

me! me! me!

LOL
  • #23,517
  • Mar 18, 2011 8:54am Mar 18, 2011 8:54am
Quoting bobowang
so great!!!
then each of the Central Banks only intervented the market once or twice during the day.
Forexlive reports they might hit it again in 5 minutes. That might get UJ barely to (bounce off) 81.2 ...

Apparently they threw all of $50million at it so far.

This was a time where the pin bars don't lie. 150 pip downtraces in GBPJPY!
  • #23,518
  • Mar 18, 2011 9:17am Mar 18, 2011 9:17am
Quoting VinceS
Can I ask is there anywhere one can see the bid position and market depth? That would be a pretty powerful tool, ie in a similar way to what one can see on a stock exchange?
As Bobowang correctly said few posts lower, the tool is completely at discretion of particular broker. Not only Ducascopy he mentions, but others too, eg. MBT give these data, but always for their own pool of trades only. But for me, its usage is rather limited, due to its local character it doesn't say as much as you would expect.
  • #23,519
  • Mar 18, 2011 9:28am Mar 18, 2011 9:28am
so is this the long term trend reversal?
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #23,520
  • Mar 18, 2011 9:37am Mar 18, 2011 9:37am
Quoting Citiboy
so is this the long term trend reversal?
No. At the very least, we should be looking at the original trend line breaks before even thinking about that.
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