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  • #4,401
  • Edited 7:19am Mar 10, 2011 6:34am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting Whenever
Still speaking about "scooped up", usually the price will tend to go to the "first obstacle" (S/R, EMA, whatever) found on the way, before to may have a potential "bounce" again back in the previous direction.
But at moves like this (scoop up) I have seen many times the price to pass the 35/50 and hance change the trend from downtrend to uptrend.

This is what I would expect here to happen and I think this is the reason that makes me not as good trader as you guys .

So could you please enlighten me and talk about your phylosophy in moves like this where the price tends to "scoop up"?

Thanx in advance!
You are allowed to fall but you are imposed to get up!
  • #4,402
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:34am Mar 10, 2011 7:34am
Quoting iero4
But at moves like this (scoop up) I have seen many times the price to pass the 35/50 and hance change the trend from downtrend to uptrend.

This is what I would expect here to happen and I think this is the reason that makes me not as good trader as you guys .

So could you please enlighten me and talk about your phylosophy in moves like this where the price tends to "scoop up"?

Thanx in advance!

Here is my two cents. I completely ignored this scooped up posted today. As a rule i dont look for any contra tredn trade when 35/50 is faily steep. In this case 35/50 is fairly steep and price hasnt tested it even once. I like wide flat 35/50 for scooped up trades. In steep 35/50 cases most of the time i have seen prices continue in direction of trend for some time. Mayeb they will test previous low and move around here and there widening and flattening 35/50 and then finally we will have a proper scooped up which will take price much higher. Thsi is waht "change of trend" iero talk about.

Right now IMHO prices are trying the previous low again and 35/50 is still widening. If they become flat and then if we get a scooped up i would go long. Till then i am looking for shorts.

Edit: i also prefer a nice rejection bar against the trend before attempting a contra trend entry. Cant post charts but i have highlighted these in my earlier posts as contra trend/ reversal bars.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,403
  • Mar 10, 2011 7:42am Mar 10, 2011 7:42am
Quoting Survivor
Here is my two cents. I completely ignored this scooped up posted today. As a rule i dont look for any contra tredn trade when 35/50 is faily steep. In this case 35/50 is fairly steep and price hasnt tested it even once. I like wide flat 35/50 for scooped up trades. In steep 35/50 cases most of the time i have seen prices continue in direction of trend for some time. Mayeb they will test previous low and move around here and there widening and flattening 35/50 and then finally we will have a proper scooped up which will take price much higher. Thsi...
Very nice approach survivor. I really appreciate your help and I will keep in mind your words.

Regards
You are allowed to fall but you are imposed to get up!
  • #4,404
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:40am Mar 10, 2011 11:40am
Quoting iero4
Very nice approach survivor. I really appreciate your help and I will keep in mind your words.
Regards

Sorry i could not post charts. Here is one from recent GU activity. Notice how firt three scoops fail because of steep 35/50 and then price keeps going up till 35/50 become absolutely flat and then we have a valid scoop. Next scoop is again valid because of flat 35/50. Last one would have been tricky for me- 35/50 is narrow but its is too flat. Maybe i would have taken it maybe i would have passed. Hope that carifie what i mean
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Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,405
  • Mar 10, 2011 2:14pm Mar 10, 2011 2:14pm
Quoting iero4
But at moves like this (scoop up) I have seen many times the price to pass the 35/50 and hance change the trend from downtrend to uptrend.

This is what I would expect here to happen and I think this is the reason that makes me not as good trader as you guys .

So could you please enlighten me and talk about your phylosophy in moves like this where the price tends to "scoop up"?

Thanx in advance!
Thanks to you for asking.

Concerning the scooped up on the daily chart, my approach to the strategy is actually very simple (perhaps too simple ? Don't know, Time will say it ) :

In the Moving Averages I "just" see dinamic S/R levels, and I see moving Trend Lines.
Just defined at the moment, by the Market of that specific TF.

In the same way I would trade TL and S/R I just consider that all a matter of edge.

As the price comes very near to a S/R or TL I have (usually) a bigger % that it will bounce from that point, than from the middle of the "channel".
Moreover as we are learning, the first or second time of any touch has more % than the further ones.

If we have a Confluence of more of them, we also have an higher % of traders probably acting in the same way.
That is our edge.

As soon as one of those levels (S/R, TL, MA) is "broken" I look at where it could be the next possible significant level for the price to bounce (of course it is not always so, otherwise I would be rich already since a long time ).

Now, as the Higher TFs lead the main trend, I see that on EUR Daily we are still long (or better said above 35/50), so I MUST still think that the price will still move upwards.

All the other MA's in lower TFs have been broken.
Even the Daily 10.
So the next possible "wall" to keep the trend upwards is the 35.

If that will be broken then the 50, then the 62, then the 100, than the 200.

This is the way I look at levels, starting from the M15 upwards.

Below Daily they are all moving down, so as I trade mainly the M15 I would look for shorts now, but I will take particular care as soon as the price approaches the 35 on Daily, as I know that I would be basically still be still trading counter the main trend, and because from that point the bigger Daddy (Daily) could let hear his stronger voice and all smaller children could wake up.

If not, then I will trade short even more confidently and will perhaps look at the weekly for identifing a next possible bounce level.

That's all.
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  • #4,406
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:57pm Mar 10, 2011 4:57pm
Quoting Survivor
Sorry i could not post charts. Here is one from recent GU activity. Notice how firt three scoops fail because of steep 35/50 and then price keeps going up till 35/50 become absolutely flat and then we have a valid scoop. Next scoop is again valid because of flat 35/50. Last one would have been tricky for me- 35/50 is narrow but its is too flat. Maybe i would have taken it maybe i would have passed. Hope that carifie what i mean
This discussion relates to my bad bounce trade the other day. There, some people had the opinion that the trade was unadvisable because the 10 had turned. It was not quite a scooped up situation, because the turning came quickly. But the examples from the original Dance thread show situations where Clay said not to take the bounce trade because price had already flipped under the 10 on the way down, and was hugging it.

I think this shows a few possibilities 1) Price pulls back to the 35 quickly without hugging the 10 on the way, and the 35 and 50 are steep. This is the best type of bounce trade. 2) Price pulls back quickly to the 35 without hugging the 10, and the 35 and 50 are flat. This is a clear no trade. 3) Price comes back slower to the 35 and hugs the opposite side of the 10 beforehand, while the 35 and 50 are flat or diverging. This, I think, is what Survivor is calling the best scooped up setup. It's kind of like a reverse constrainment, and the 35 and 50 are showing that they will get out of the way. And 4) Price comes back slower to the 35 and hugs the 10, but the MAs are steep and parallel. This is a mixed signal, and thus a no trade. You might as well flip a coin here.

I doubt I'm saying anything new here, but just trying to write it out so that I can make sure that I make sense of it.
  • #4,407
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:59pm Mar 10, 2011 4:59pm
Quoting Whenever
Thanks to you for asking.

Concerning the scooped up on the daily chart, my approach to the strategy is actually very simple (perhaps too simple ? Don't know, Time will say it ) :

In the Moving Averages I "just" see dinamic S/R levels, and I see moving Trend Lines.
Just defined at the moment, by the Market of that specific TF.

In the same way I would trade TL and S/R I just consider that all a matter of edge.

As the price comes very near to a S/R or TL I have (usually) a bigger % that it will bounce from that point, than from the...
Great post. This is probably the clearest explanation I've seen of how to use/judge the higher time frame action. Stuff like this always bears repeating and refining, especially for the thickheaded among us -- like me
  • #4,408
  • Mar 10, 2011 5:20pm Mar 10, 2011 5:20pm
Quoting kostas1
I am still in on this one.
Entry on the RN 1.3850 bounce (look at M5 10:35 GMT). I will exit at Daily S2 (unless it hesitates before that). If the down move is strong I may wait for RN 1.3800.

I'm in awe. Did you hold on until .3800? That pretty much nailed the bottom of the active trading day.

Also, at your entry, price has already moved over 15 pips away from the 10 touch. Other than the round number, what else formed the basis for this entry? I've never understood the significance of a dead end bar, and would love to hear some explanation. Also, were you looking at the support and resistance on the H4 from last week for the entry, or was there something else?
  • #4,409
  • Edited 11:27pm Mar 10, 2011 10:03pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting Survivor
Here is my two cents. I completely ignored this scooped up posted today. As a rule i dont look for any contra tredn trade when 35/50 is faily steep. In this case 35/50 is fairly steep and price hasnt tested it even once. I like wide flat 35/50 for scooped up trades. In steep 35/50 cases most of the time i have seen prices continue in direction of trend for some time. Mayeb they will test previous low...
Good points.

I only posted that because some people had asked a while back in the thread what "scooped up" meant not as a signal or anything.

Actually, I use "scooped up" as caution signal. If it is accompanied by flat, diverging 35/50, that goes without saying.

That way I can comfortably miss opportunities like Kostas got!

This is what you are referring to, is it not?
35/50 are both flat (and "skinny" on my indi), so it not only goes straight through, but the 35/50 seem to "give it a little boost" as it passes them. Actually, this is the scenario to take the long on the small retrace to the 35/10 confluence, which here is also an RN, making it a "trade me!" point.


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  • #4,410
  • Edited 12:44am Mar 11, 2011 12:18am | Edited 12:44am
Spotted this a little late, and unfortunately got a poor entry (price moved as I entered... again), so I am a few pips below the H1 10.

Clear except for a D1 50, but that is 30 or so pips away, plenty of room for profit.

There's also an RN in there.... they seem to pop up every 50 pips or so, funny thing, that...

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Damn it! Just had a thunderstorm that shut down our power and when I got back I'd been taken out.

Thor is working contract for the Forex Gods! Egads!

Well, I may have missed the profit, but I'd already gone SBE+1, so get that up you Thor and co.!
  • #4,411
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:58am Mar 11, 2011 7:58am
Did not enter this trade but it was very similar to yesterday's and I am still learning to utilize M5 charts with kostas' pointers.

Here's an excellent double top tap at S1 on M5. I'm sure most of you caught it; hope to be joining you guys soon

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  • #4,412
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:08am Mar 11, 2011 8:08am
Quoting natnimrey
Did not enter this trade but it was very similar to yesterday's and I am still learning to utilize M5 charts with kostas' pointers.

Here's an excellent double top tap at S1 on M5. I'm sure most of you caught it; hope to be joining you guys soon

Attachment
I didn't take that one despite the 5m double top because I'm only taking signals from m15, or 1h 4h in confluences as the case may be. Once I get a signal on m15 I will use m5. In this scenario the price was still well below m15 35/50, so I stayed out.
  • #4,413
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:32am Mar 11, 2011 8:32am
Quoting Survivor
[...]I love constrainments. They give big moves and one can catch hi or lo with them.[...]
Quoting Survivor
[...] Ok As promised here is my only trade today that gave me a hassle free +45 with zero draw down - price never went against me even for 1 pip. Only spread was lowest drawdown. And complete peace of mind[...]

I am trying to learn form your post Survivor. Following your clear examples and charts on Master trades (Constrainments) have helped me a lot. I find remarkably useful the posts I've quoted above. I can use them as a mechanical guide to trade the Master Trade with great success.


As an example, please take a look at the attached charts of the trades I took today where I profit 41,6 pips.


Thanks for your help. Please continue posting your charts I really appreciate them.

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  • #4,414
  • Edited 10:38am Mar 11, 2011 8:47am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting natnimrey
Did not enter this trade but it was very similar to yesterday's and I am still learning to utilize M5 charts with kostas' pointers.

Here's an excellent double top tap at S1 on M5. I'm sure most of you caught it; hope to be joining you guys soon

Attachment

Was not at the screen in that moment, but I agreed (without knowing that) to your analysis.

Entered short just a few bars later.
Nice one.



EDIT: I must admit that the exit was just because I saw price esitating, moreover I saw in my balance to have achieved the wished 3%, didn't want to risk further and had to work.... so...just Luck this time I guess.
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  • #4,415
  • Mar 11, 2011 12:52pm Mar 11, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting bigtent
Clear except for a D1 50, but that is 30 or so pips away, plenty of room for profit.

Well, I may have missed the profit, but I'd already gone SBE+1, so get that up you Thor and co.!
I am too hassled to have a look at charts but i love these two lines. Keep it up. Spotting good trades and not losing money by moving to BE+1. That's all to the game.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,416
  • Mar 11, 2011 12:57pm Mar 11, 2011 12:57pm
Quoting Haydel

I am trying to learn form your post Survivor. Following your clear examples and charts on Master trades (Constrainments) have helped me a lot. I find remarkably useful the posts I've quoted above. I can use them as a mechanical guide to trade the Master Trade with great success.


As an example, please take a look at the attached charts of the trades I took today where I profit 41,6 pips.


Thanks for your help. Please continue posting your charts I really appreciate them.


Wow you make me happy bro.

I have been a little disappointed posting these charts and wondering if anyone ever reads them. But clay taught me so kindly and it's my duty to keep posting as long as feasible. So i keep going. But your post makes me happy.

Perfect spot. Exactly the way i go about this business. And the fact that you quote me from so far back in thread shows how seriously you are following this stuff. That's good. Keep them coming.

And always remeber 41 pips is indeed good enough. Dont get greedy. With some experience you can hit double lots with constainments and milk them and easily convert these 41 to 82. Thats a lot of pips. Even kostas targets only 30.Controlling greed is important. I still fail there.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,417
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:26pm Mar 11, 2011 2:26pm
Quoting Survivor
Wow you make me happy bro.

I have been a little disappointed posting these charts and wondering if anyone ever reads them. But clay taught me so kindly and it's my duty to keep posting as long as feasible. So i keep going. But your post makes me happy.

Perfect spot. Exactly the way i go about this business. And the fact that you quote me from so far back in thread shows how seriously you are following this stuff. That's good. Keep them coming.

And always remeber 41 pips is indeed good enough. Dont get greedy. With some experience you can...
I will post the chart for this later, but I wonder if you have looked at the M15 for the same time period of this constrainment. Before seeing these posts, I wondered if this was the sort of thing you would take.

On the H1, you have something like a constrainment, with the MA running through the middle of four out of five candles while the MA is trailing down, and then you get five candles in a row where only the upper wick pierces the MA.

But on the M15, you have what looks like an almost perfect game of ping pong between the 50 on top and the 35 on the bottom. Before, people seem always to have cautioned about trading between these MAs. Is there something about this set-up, or the play on the H1, that makes this sandwich more tasty than the others?
  • #4,418
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:29pm Mar 11, 2011 2:29pm
Yesterday saw a bounce off the Daily 35, and we went into this day with the Daily in an uptrend still, while the H4 is in downtrend, and the H1 is flat and volatile. Moreover, Asian markets had a fairly strong down move going into the day. Overall, the picture is confused at best.

1) Constrainment. Survivor says these have come back into vogue, and even I could have spotted this one. Five of seven bars almost perfectly touch the 10, which is steeply down, with the 35 and 50 both steep and parallel. Any of these could also be taken as a 10 touch. But 6 10 Touch trades in 7 bars is more than just a 10 touch. Easy, easy trade if I had been around.

2) 10 Touch. The 10 is still steep and it meets the two bar rule, but with all of the 10 Touches in the constrainment, this one is probably pushing it.

3) 10 Touch, 35 Bounce. This is close to the kind of retracement that precedes a big move up. Price has crossed the 35 and 50 by more than 15 pips, and then come back in one bar to touch both the 35 and the 10. But I didn't take this trade, and I think it was for pretty good reasons. First, there has already been a stall for 5 bars, this shows some pretty clear indecision. Second, there was a retrace touch of the 35 just a few bars back. That would make this the second touch, which is not what I've seen before when it makes a strong move up. So, I made the right call here, and decided that it was more likely that price would drop back down. What I did not foresee was the exhaustion spike that would precede the fall. Somehow, I think a trader like EO would have gotten 25 pips on this upswing, and then immediately have reversed and taken oodles of pips on the way down. I sat and watched.

4) 10 Touch. This touch came after the London close. It's after a very long move and is the first touch. Given the time of day, I don't know whether I would take this trade. During London or New York hours, I think the shape of the bars leading to the trade look very bad. There's already a clear higher low in place from the last swing. I think this trade is by the rules but not great. Depending on when you move to break even, this is either a breakeven trade or good for about 15 pips.

I'm not posting the charts, but here are a couple of observations on the higher time frames if you care to look.

On the Daily, price basically moved from the 35 down to the 50, tested the 50 by about 20 pips, and has now come back to sit almost exactly on it.

On the H1, there was a retrace early in the day back to the 35, 50 and 62. If you recall, yesterday, price hit the first, bounced off, came back to hit the second, bounced again, and then hit the third and bounced again before moving on its way. Today, price first pierced the 35 and 50 and bounced back. Then it went and tested them again, and reached the 62 before bouncing back again and then plunging down on its big move. Maybe there really is something to the power of the H1 62?

(I thought I posted this yesterday, then found it again today buried in a sea of windows.)
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  • #4,419
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:42pm Mar 11, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting duffypratt
I will post the chart for this later, but I wonder if you have looked at the M15 for the same time period of this constrainment....
I would take such constarinment. I worry only about HTF. Lower TF can be messy and its perfectly all right. In this case since 1H is constrained, any TF lower than 1H cannot negate constrainment. If something is wrong in 4H or 1D i wont take the trade but nothing in 15M will convince me not to take it.

What i would do is, i would fine tune using 15M. You yourself spotted the ping pong in 15M. That would have given me an entry with absolutely tiny stop loss.

Hope that helps
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,420
  • Mar 11, 2011 10:46pm Mar 11, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting Survivor
I would take such constarinment. I worry only about HTF. Lower TF can be messy and its perfectly all right. In this case since 1H is constrained, any TF lower than 1H cannot negate constrainment. If something is wrong in 4H or 1D i wont take the trade but nothing in 15M will convince me not to take it.

What i would do is, i would fine tune using 15M. You yourself spotted the ping pong in 15M. That would have given me an entry with absolutely tiny stop loss.

Hope that helps
Yes, it does help. Thanks so much. Given how simple the Dance is, I'm constantly amazed at how subtle it can be at the same time. Oh, and never think that posting your charts and commentary is going to waste. It's not just for those of us here now. The good stuff will last for a fairly long time. EO, Infinity and those goys have been gone for a while, but aren't you glad that they posted for as long as they did? And don't you wish they were still around. (Needless to say, the same goes for Clay.)
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