CHOROS System

Good spot. Was a bit difficult to trade but not impossible. That last candle that closed below all mas was a giveaway.

Dont worry about missed or lost or bad trades. Its all psychology. but the good thing is that it gets better automatically as you gain confidence. I was really bad when i started but as time goes by i find myself behaving more confidently. Not yet very good in managing my mind but much better than what i started with.

Keep working on it and you will get to it eventually.

This is a really good post! I wondered why most of these were failing me... will keep an eye on PA when this happens in the future...

Good evening to everyone. Here's an eu constrainment trade taken during the slower time of day. It was good for 12 pips.

http://i52.tinypic.com/hx67vp.png

Yes, I'm aware of that. But I think the effect is much stronger in higher time frames and when price has broken a level for the first time. If price is partying around a level, can we really talk about S/R ? Aren't multiple breaches of a level an indication of a loss of its power ?

I think that maybe if the price had continued downwards on the first chart instead of bouncing, then it would probably look very similar to the second. I mean, at real time those two must have been very similar.

Or did I just get shafted by The Hedgehog?

GU is insane tonight!

Guys,
Keep your eyes at the H1 G/U.....constrainment of Daily R1 and tripple top!



As you will have noticed it was a trap...The only good thing is that I placed a tight stop so I just lost only 9 pips...

Was it only me that thought of this as a good opportunity?

Shorted at the nice touch of 35/50. Price flew down and bounced back within about four seconds at one point and was within 3 pips of my TP...if only I had snatched my pips...now I've set my SL to 8 pips, a few above the double top. Don't know how long I'll have to wait, but I fear PA playing ping pong between the 10 and 35/50.

Edit: Screw it, exited at +3, nerves and high flying EU got to me. Going for a jog now.

Guess I was spared the frustration...

Don't ask me... I've had an absolute shocker tonight. GU was schizo!

Actually, first few hours of London was schizo as well... Maybe the Queen had indigestion or something.... nothing upsets the nation like a Royal Belch or two!

When the pairs did move well, I was tied up with other stuff, so I missed on recouping anything.

Here are two 15m 35/50 touches this morning. I decided to get out quickly because the one and four hour charts aren't very supportive. I profited 8 pips on one, and 7 on the other.

http://i54.tinypic.com/w82w0j.png

http://i53.tinypic.com/sqlet5.png

She is not hot and glamorous like GU but she performs without much fuss!!

Very nice. It would help me quite a bit if you would also draw arrows to where you got in and out. It looks like either constrainments are coming back, as you say. Or else, maybe you are just better able to see them now?

The daily shows that we are either in the start of a downtrend, or in the middle of a retrace on the bigger uptrend. At the start of the day, it along with the H4 and H1 were looking bearish. As it turned out, it was a great day for the Dance (though I managed to break the rules, be really stupid and end up even; and no, I will not be posting my incredibly stupid trades, unless I start a thread called "Duffy's Incredibly Stupid Trades - Do the Opposite and Get Rich").

1) 10 Touch. Just after London open and price has crossed over the 35 with a steep 10. The higher time frames are supporting shorts. Here we have two bars in a row that touch the 10. If you took the trade on the first bar, you would bet an easy 15-20 pips. The second touch takes longer, and you might end up with a break even.

2) 35 Bounce. This is the first pullback to the 35, and the third dance trade in as many bars. Notice that the next bar is also a bounce off the 35. Here, its a nice two bar pullback. The 35 is a bit flat, but headed down. The 50 is steeper and they are converging. I think this is an OK trade. Good for 15 -20 pips.

3) 50 Bounce. Time and again, I see these situations where the first bounce comes off the 35, and then there is another pullback to the 50. Here the MAs are still converging, and there is a Round Number in confluence with the 50. Good for 15-30, but probably more like 20. It's not easy to see where the natural exit point is here (at least not easy for me).

4 and 5) 10 Touches. I've got four arrows here. There are actually 7 touches of the 10 on the way down here. And every single one of them would be a winner. The only ones I think are decent trades are the first arrow on number 4, and number 5. On number 5 I would have some concern because the doji before the pullback comes right at a round number, and at a S/R line. But unlike the other examples where this has happened, there is no consolidation here. Instead, its just a clean pullback to the 10.

6) 35 Bounce, H1 10 Touch. I'm not posting the H1 chart here. But this bounce trade is also a perfect confluence with the H1 10 (within 1 pip). On the M15, this trade looks a bit iffy, with a long retrace to the 35, taking 6 bars. But here, the bounce happens at the same time. In my failed trade the other day, I noted that there had already been a bounce off the H1 10 before price got back to the 35. For me, that's the real difference in the trades. Before, I was counting on a confluence that had already shown itself to be invalid.

7) Daily 35 Bounce. The bottom here comes at 1.61250. The Daily 35 was about 8 pips above this low. So this seemingly strange bottom on the M15 was simply respect for floating resistance from the higher time frames.

Very nice update.... winning day for GU for sure...

USDCAD did very well today for me...ignore indicators... green lines with red lines are starting and ending points...2 trades ... 1st was with hesitation of pa blow all MAs and 2nd was supposed to be touch trade with the MA's angling down but had to keep the SL @ 12pips... got little close and scary for a while but worked out at the end...

This day showed an interesting conflict between the various time frames. First, the day starts having come off a slight upward bounce on the Daily 35. At the same time, the H4 and H1 are still in a downtrend of the moment.

1) Daily 35 Bounce. I don't know if anyone would trade this, but the area I've marked show two more retests of the Daily 35. Looking purely at price action, it might be tempting to trade after the second retest here, at the close of the long hammer, which is also right on the 35. (Or, like Bigtent, and me soon after when I woke up, you could simply think that the GU had gone crazy.)

2) 10 Touch. First touch of the 10 after the break up. This is an easy trade and good for 25-30 pips.

3) 10 Touch. This is the second touch of the 10, so not a perfect trade. Also, price has twice tried to get to the Daily R1 and failed, and there were the previous wild swings. Still, there is a Round Number just above, and the Monthly Pivot providing some support just below this trade. I sat and watched the trade go by. Other times, I've had good reasons for passing on these 10 Touch trades. This time, as I watched the opportunity go by, I realized that I didn't have any very good reason not to take the trade, but I didn't take it anyway. Good for 20-50+ pips, depending on how you played it. Not taking this trade really shook my confidence. After this, I knew the next opportunity was either a bounce off the 35/50 or the H1 10, and I didn't have the patience to wait for it.

4) 10 Touch. This is the kind of 10 touch failure that I've gotten used to seeing. It is a three bar retrace, and the long wick candles that almost make it to the Daily R2 show real buying weakness. A clear no trade.

5) 35/50 Bounce. Break even or small win. This is almost a repeat of the trade I took the other day and lost. It's 8 bars from the top of the move, and the touch comes on the fourth straight bearish bar. I'm not good at reading this, but the 10 seems to have "turned over". Yet, there's a decent bounce. Here, there's a good confluence with the round number. I'm still trying to figure out this whole idea of the 10 turning over.

6) 10 Touch. After the failure to break the weekly pivot earlier, I would not take this trade. London has just closed. After London closes, there tends to be a change in direction and then a kind of drift in that general direction. That's what happens today. 10 Touch trades are trend continuation trades, and at this point, we normally get consolidation, not continuations.

7) 35 Bounce. MAs are diverging and pretty far apart now, so I would probably not take this trade. But it turns out to be good for a few pips, as does the first touch of the 50 after this. It's almost as if there's a "dance lite" going on after the big markets close. You would have to aim for fewer pips, but the bounces off the 35 and 50 seem fairly dependable in these hours, even when the trending isn't that strong. This is something I will have to watch more closely in the future.

Now the H1 chart:

8-10) H1 35 then 50 then 62 Bounce. I think this is the area where Bigtent said the Queen farted or something. I'm not saying that any of these are great trades, but its worth noting that one by one, on each of these bars, price came up to the MA tested it and then took a bounce before hitting the next MA, almost in a stepwise progression. I think this is an odd combination of chance and the power of the Dance. I doubt this happens all that often, but I would also be willing to bet (and in fact intend to bet) that it happens way more often than random chance would predict.

And finally the H4:

11) H4 35 Bounce. This one just blows me away. It's a countertrend move, and would be very hard to take a trade on it. But again, look at how price is dancing off the higher time frames. Here there's great confluence with the H4 35 and the Daily R2.

Some have asked what "scooped up" means, so I thought I'd post this.

Should the price stay above the 10 EMA, this is being "scooped up". It's like a reverse constraint, and often indicates a reversal in the trend.

The fear of it turning into a scooped up trade is what ate 4 pips off my account. I did not consider this a scooped up trade in the first three candles because the 10 was completely flat; I named it the "flatliner" for my own trading. Not to confuse dancers but it's the way I differentiate things. Later on it did looked like scooping up and after a long wait I pulled the plug at -4, only to have this happen.


Not many people can say no to money like this, you know

I am still in on this one.
Entry on the RN 1.3850 bounce (look at M5 10:35 GMT). I will exit at Daily S2 (unless it hesitates before that). If the down move is strong I may wait for RN 1.3800.

You entered at the dead-ended bull candle on RN?That was brilliant. I am still struggling to use M5 charts though...they either confuse or distract me.

Still speaking about "scooped up", usually the price will tend to go to the "first obstacle" (S/R, EMA, whatever) found on the way, before to may have a potential "bounce" again back in the previous direction.

Now, I know this is perhaps a too long view for a Dance Trade, but on EU in this moment all Choros usual TF are short, execpt from Daily.
Which, if you look well, seems "scooped up" by the EMA10.

Being all the other TFs on "clear Sky" short, I could expect a bounce first at the Daily 35 (left in the pic).

By the time it will be there it could be around 3750, which could be a RN, a previous S/R and probably the SMA200 on H4 (right in the pic).

But I would probably never keep a trade that long anyway
(especially because the price is right now, while I am writing at a previous S/R Level and could bounce up from here too (?). Moreover just bounced off the H4 SMA100 not in my pic)