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DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy

  • #1,121
  • Feb 28, 2011 8:01am Feb 28, 2011 8:01am
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

I don't really like posting my trades here because I am unable to do so in real time (due to being at work!) so I have posted it on my blog here: link

Basically I managed to get back in on the EUR/CAD long.

I am watching PA carefully at the moment for signs of price turning around as I am still cautious on the trend.

Regards,

Dan


I think I cursed the trade... price tanked! Got my finger on the button, ready to pull the plug! Will update shortly.
  • #1,122
  • Feb 28, 2011 12:25pm Feb 28, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting DanUK


I think I cursed the trade... price tanked! Got my finger on the button, ready to pull the plug! Will update shortly.
Closed at -20 pips in the end
  • #1,123
  • Mar 1, 2011 1:17am Mar 1, 2011 1:17am
Quoting DanUK
Closed at -20 pips in the end
Hey dan, i believed you close the trade before your SL was hit.

Care to share with us on your insight on what made you close it?

thanks.
Whether you can or you can't, you are both right.
  • #1,124
  • Mar 1, 2011 7:40am Mar 1, 2011 7:40am
Quoting fartist
Hey dan, i believed you close the trade before your SL was hit.

Care to share with us on your insight on what made you close it?

thanks.
Hello mate,

Sorry I made the update on my blog and forgot to post it here... to save me the time here is the link

Regards,

Dan
  • #1,125
  • Mar 2, 2011 5:17pm Mar 2, 2011 5:17pm
I've just come out of some GJ long positions which were profitable...and now I'm looking to possibly reverse if all the ducks line up.

NeoRio
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Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,126
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:12pm Mar 2, 2011 7:12pm
I have been looking at this market with a short in mind.
Yes the double top is interesting. The stoch has turned down as well. 134.15 area must not be breached though...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,127
  • Mar 2, 2011 7:23pm Mar 2, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting Olu
I have been looking at this market with a short in mind.
Yes the double top is interesting. The stoch has turned down as well. 134.15 area must not be breached though...
My short bias on this pair is waning with time. If we do get a short setup on the H1 or H4, I think it would be a short run (which I'm fine with). I'm looking at the bigger frames and feeling like my analysis from last week is more sound, that the major trend to the upside has more going for it. It is NFP week, so not the best week to be looking for major new trends to give confirmation.

Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,128
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:29am Mar 3, 2011 4:29am
Quoting NeoRio
My short bias on this pair is waning with time. If we do get a short setup on the H1 or H4, I think it would be a short run (which I'm fine with). I'm looking at the bigger frames and feeling like my analysis from last week is more sound, that the major trend to the upside has more going for it. It is NFP week, so not the best week to be looking for major new trends to give confirmation.

Regards,
NeoRio
Short this pair would have turned out ok. As you said it might be a small run. We wait and see after the data
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,129
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:51am Mar 3, 2011 4:51am
Quoting Olu
Short this pair would have turned out ok. As you said it might be a small run. We wait and see after the data
Yes, would have given over 60 pips so far (crumbs by Dan's standards)...but a nice little scalp nonetheless. And who knows?--this could continue dropping.

Neo
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #1,130
  • Mar 3, 2011 5:30am Mar 3, 2011 5:30am
Quoting NeoRio
Yes, would have given over 60 pips so far (crumbs by Dan's standards)...but a nice little scalp nonetheless. And who knows?--this could continue dropping.

Neo
Every man for himself. If I took 60pips by now I can relax and forget about nfp. I am slowly re-engineering my trading to long termish trading and hopefully I will be able to join Dan in saying 60pips is nothing. Thanks for your analysis
Thanks to Dan too for a great thread
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,131
  • Mar 4, 2011 5:07pm Mar 4, 2011 5:07pm
Has been a good week. Currently have the following trades open:

EUR/USD Long from 1.3700 @ 280 pips
EUR/USD Long from 1.3800 @ 184 pips
GBP/USD Long from 1.6300 @ -33 pips

I am hopeful that GBP/USD will start moving up again as it is still above it's trendline and is showing bullish price action.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,132
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:34pm Mar 7, 2011 3:34pm
Hi Dan,

I hope that this post belongs here !!

I am currently looking at the AUD/USD and on a fundamental note:
- The world economy has recovered. Australia seems to be tanking and the recent floods didn't really stopped their growth.
- The biggest risk i see is China's tightening policy that could impact Australia's exports by stopping them to buy their commodities.
- Also, the US is printing money at a furious rate (75 billion USD/month) and have a very very low interest rate.
- And finally the central bank of Australia is having a high interest rate.

On the technical side my chart:
Attached Image


So i was thinking that buying at 1.0075 (middle of 1.0100 and 1.0050) is a good idea.

With your experience with S&R, and after what i read on your threads it seems an A+ trade.

What do you think?
  • #1,133
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:32am Mar 9, 2011 5:32am
Quoting jcalow
Has been a good week. Currently have the following trades open:

EUR/USD Long from 1.3700 @ 280 pips
EUR/USD Long from 1.3800 @ 184 pips
GBP/USD Long from 1.6300 @ -33 pips

I am hopeful that GBP/USD will start moving up again as it is still above it's trendline and is showing bullish price action.
Ok, my trades from last week closed out as follows:

EUR/USD Long from 1.3700 = 200 pips
EUR/USD Long from 1.3800 = 100 pips
GBP/USD Long from 1.6300 = -100 pips

I have today entered an anti-hedge style trade on GBP/USD as the market seems to have found support on the outer trendline. I have also entered a pending long on EUR/USD @ 1.3950 as support is also being found at trendline and it looks like 12:00 bar will close as a pin-bar type formation.
  • #1,134
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:02pm Mar 9, 2011 7:02pm
Quoting jcalow
Ok, my trades from last week closed out as follows:

EUR/USD Long from 1.3700 = 200 pips
EUR/USD Long from 1.3800 = 100 pips
GBP/USD Long from 1.6300 = -100 pips

I have today entered an anti-hedge style trade on GBP/USD as the market seems to have found support on the outer trendline. I have also entered a pending long on EUR/USD @ 1.3950 as support is also being found at trendline and it looks like 12:00 bar will close as a pin-bar type formation.
Good trading. I am also LONG GBPUSD.

Am also waiting for EU tomorrow as they have decisions to make regarding Greece etc. Am still bearish EU but then again, your trading figures are much better than mine....

Am now long NZD/JPY with a scout as I think all the problems in NZ have been priced in.
  • #1,135
  • Mar 10, 2011 3:25am Mar 10, 2011 3:25am
Quoting ken911
Good trading. I am also LONG GBPUSD.

Am also waiting for EU tomorrow as they have decisions to make regarding Greece etc. Am still bearish EU but then again, your trading figures are much better than mine....

Am now long NZD/JPY with a scout as I think all the problems in NZ have been priced in.
I only trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD. I took my GBP trade off at break-even last night as there was no movement. EUR trade was never hit. Plently of short-term bearish action now. Sitting on sidelines for now to see if this is a pullback or change of trend.
  • #1,136
  • Mar 10, 2011 9:19am Mar 10, 2011 9:19am
I need help on how to see Fib Retracements. Can anyone guide me on this? Thanks in advance.
  • #1,137
  • Mar 10, 2011 1:30pm Mar 10, 2011 1:30pm
Hi guys,

Sorry I've been neglecting the thread lately. Trends have been very slow and I've really been concentrating on refining my intraday trading strategy. It's going pretty well but still very much early days so no conclusive proof of whether or not I can do it yet! I'm up 20% so far this month but there's every possibility I will give that all back (and more)! But who knows!

I will still be around to answer questions and stuff... starting with GoEagle's... I tend to draw my fib using the most recent engulfing swing in the direction of the trend.

Eg...
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  • #1,138
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:30pm Mar 10, 2011 11:30pm
Hi Dan and everyone,

I just placed this trade. What do you guys think?

- Retrace to the previous trendline
- Break of triangle pattern
- Hammer candle spotted
- 2% Equity

Hope to learn from you all.

Great thread going btw!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11 March EURGBP.JPG Size: 251 KB
There is no good news or bad news. Only news.
  • #1,139
  • Mar 12, 2011 7:20am Mar 12, 2011 7:20am
Thanks Dan. I would like to know how to draw a fib and what does the % mean?


Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Sorry I've been neglecting the thread lately. Trends have been very slow and I've really been concentrating on refining my intraday trading strategy. It's going pretty well but still very much early days so no conclusive proof of whether or not I can do it yet! I'm up 20% so far this month but there's every possibility I will give that all back (and more)! But who knows!

I will still be around to answer questions and stuff... starting with GoEagle's... I tend to draw my fib using the most recent engulfing swing in the direction of...
  • #1,140
  • Mar 15, 2011 2:43pm Mar 15, 2011 2:43pm
DanUK,

I have just finished reading this entire thread and it’s terrific. This is how I’ve been trading and you have provided a lot of clarity for me. I hope that you continue to keep this thread alive – it’s invaluable. I also want to thank NeoRio – I hope you also continue to contribute to this thread. Finally, I want to thank simpleguy who referred me to this thread.

I thought I would consolidate my questions into one post. After reading this thread I feel that my questions have not been covered previously so I hope that this adds additional value to everyone. I have listed them in order of importance (to me that is!):

1) Correlations. How do you take correlations into account when trading multiple pairs at the same time? I noticed at one time you had trades open on AUDUSD, EURUSD and GPBUSD. That’s like tripling-down! The great thing about trading the dailies is that you have time to trade most pairs. The bad part is that you could end up in a maze of correlation confusion. What I do now is spend 2 hours a night going over about 20 pairs (that may be nuts but that’s what I do). When I think about entering a trade I go to the correlation table at MATAF.com. I try to follow the rules that I will not enter a trade if my potential trade has a correlation factor of >80 or <-50 compared to any trade I have currently open. I do this so I don’t double-down or go against what I have open (creating a wash situation). I find that this puts me in a pickle quite often since it precludes me from entering nice set-ups. How do you approach this issue? How many pairs do have open at a given time? Do you have a max? Should I limit the pairs I look at? I would also like to hear from NeoRio on this issue. Neo: you have around 12 pairs you look at. How did you come up with that list? Do you limit yourself to a certain amount of open trades?

2) Entering after Pinbars and Engulfing Bars. Can you please clarify when you enter on the candles after the pinbars (hammer/shooting) and engulfing bars? Let’s assume going long. I think it is on the high of the pinbar or engulfing bar, correct? If yes, then my issue is this: I use daily candles that close 5pm NY time (I think this is common). So I can’t be there exactly when the daily bar closes (I start trading at around 8pm NY time). What frequently happens is that when I start reviewing my charts the high on the new daily has already surpassed the high of the pinbar or the engulfing bar. This obviously is not uncommon since the open of the new daily bar is often very close to the high of the pinbar or engulfing bar. So how would you solve this dilemma? In these situations I would sometimes place a limit order BELOW the high of the pinbar to enter on a mini-retracement. I don't like doing that but I feel I must when I'm too late.

3) Candle Metrics. Have you ever thought about creating some metrics to objectively define pinbars? For example, the tail has to be 4 times the width of the body.

Lastly, for those starting out with this strategy I highly recommend to use Oanda as your broker. Their charting stinks IMHO so I use TradeStation for that. Thanks so much!!
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