Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Honestly.... you are crackforex and your English is getting better all the time.

Good Luck with your new account.

...perhaps i should start using google translate...

Great day to you, our kid ( "our kid" = family.. idiomatic English)

Sorry mate i only do this for fun, follow my own rules etc.. When i need advice i look to those that i know and trust. No disrespect , your comments are simply not relevant to my style of trading . Each to their own.
G/L

Cool No Prob mate, I didnt mean bother ur trade style... all the reason for me is temporary 4H forming is seems like double Top for today. Thats all

NP , i scalp...take levels S/R , D/S off of the higher time frames ..... drill down to 15/5/1 min .
Cant help it. ...
Might grow up one of these days into being a position trader....but i doubt it.
I love watching the action and....
i'm comfortable doing what i do until i decide otherwise.
All the best.

I hope you meant 1.6258/4, otherwise I'll have
to label you a gunslinging swing / position trader.

Dr. D.

Tomorrow, a day without valid data for the GBP, we can keep in the console, or go down. My analysis of H1 and W1

You picked that right. The 200ema on the 5M
is acting like a repeller ray.

Dr. D.

Out for +19...i think i may just be getting the hang of this trading malarkey.

my old post said so on this afternoon and rain down late at nite probably till tomorrow.... Looking first next step 1.6025 before deeper.

Shh Doc you know i'm hopeless at numbers.

I wouldn't change my bias 4 now, i av a target below to catch, pivot then, 1.61

looks to me like we've hit support for Asia to grab, swallow the stops up. I'm usually wrong but hey plan your trade ,trade your plan even if its only for a couple of pips.
meanwhile...going over to the Docs charts ( fourxtrader)....they really do speak volumes.

Maybe double top formation?

http://i648.photobucket.com/albums/u.../chart2-27.gifhi folks..

i see bearish div on dailly, i think this base is kinda strong..i entered hastle last n8, not waiting for new monthly candle which appear to be outside monthly trendline..its possible this is in uptrend now offically
I think most were short and price has gone higher as stops were hit hence why we above monthly trendline..im hoping going higher is a brick wall..lol

http://i648.photobucket.com/albums/u.../chart2-26.gif

Who needs numbers swirling through your head
when you have patterns dancing before your eyes?

Dr. D.

The service sector is the dominant sector of the UK economy and makes up about 73% of GDP. Manufacturing in the UK has declined for many years now and therefore the Service PMI is very relevant to the UK with regards to future growth (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy...ice_industries).

Now GDP figures are only released once every 3 months, whereas the PMIs are released every month, so they are the leading indicators as to growth within the economy. Now as the FF calendar states - "Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction."

If you want to know how PMIs are calculated, the questions asked and economic analysis using PMIs, as movements in the PMIs have a close relationship to interest rate decisions, visit http://www.markiteconomics.com/Surve...onomicAnalysis

Now let's look at the facts and focus on the Service PMI numbers (Remember that figures published in March are for February) -
Month/Year Previous Forecast Actual
Nov 2010 52.8 52.4 53.2
Dec 2010 53.2 53.2 53.0
Jan 2010 53.0 52.9 49.7 (December was a bad month in the UK due to adverse weather conditions)
Feb 2010 49.7 51.2 54.5
Mar 2010 54.5 54.0 ??.?

Now let's look at the GDP figures (These are for the last 3 months)

Month/Year Previous Forecast Actual
Jan 2010 (Prelim GDP q/q) 0.7% 0.5% -0.5% (This was attributed to the adverse weather conditions in December)
Feb 2010 (Revised GDP q/q) -0.5% -0.5% -0.6%

Now as the Wiki link above states, the Service sector also comprises of the public sector (Govt) and the coalition government has been slashing spending and making 1000's of people redundant in order to cut public spending to reduce the yearly growth of national debt (Debt equivalent to 10% of GDP was added in 2010 to a total of around 70% of GDP)

As we know, the GBP has been getting stronger against the USD because of the rumours that the BoE will raise interest rates way before the US are thinking of doing so, due to the rising inflation numbers (February 2011: CPI 4.0% and RPI at 5.1%) and I am sure that they will at some point during this year, BUT the BoE will NOT raise them if the economy is contracting and those last GDP figures show a contraction of -0.6%. When the April figures are released (Jan-Mar 2011) and show another negative GDP number, it will mean that the UK is in another official recession (The double-dip recession!)

Therefore if the actual Services PMI is less than 50, I can assure you that cable will drop, possibly back to 1.55, which is when the rumours started that the BoE will raise interest rates. With the threat of double-dip recession, the BoE have made it clear that they will not raise interest rates as this could damage the growth of the economy further. If it is above the forecast of 54.0 I am sure that cable will rise as it will show that the GDP figure last quarter really was a 'blip' due to weather conditions and that there is a high probability that the UK will have positive growth again and interest rates will rise in April/May. If it is lower than forecast but above 50, then I think cable will still rise, but I am not sure.

So between now and Thursday morning when the Services PMI numbers are released at 09:30 (GMT), I see sideway action, probably between 1.6220-1.6350. When the numbers are released watch the price action to see where price is heading. The trend is up, but we are in overbought territory and we have hit weekly supply. Saying that the indicators can stay in overbought (or oversold) territory for a long time, especially on the higher timeframes! Targets for any longs would be 1.6450, but it does look like a bigger retrace is imminent.

I will be staying out of the market before these numbers are released.

Of course, I could be completely wrong and the market does something completely different, but that is the nature of the market!

Well yes...this is why i'm hopeless at posting but do right for me at trading.

That shooting star on the daily does look very promising for the shorts! I should have left my SL at the original place at 1.6340... it was only 23 pips!

Might get another bite at the cherry, you never know!

yes i figure we hit stops hence the movement up novemeber monthly candle was bearish (bearish outside bar or engulf) the high of the candle would have been where the stops were, and they all triggered

or this is now offically in uptrend..dollar needs to be saed here otherwise it gonna get hectic

Wat een goede BRILLIANT uitleg.
Thanks for sharing
Keep the good job up BB