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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #272,781
  • Edited 4:36pm Feb 23, 2011 4:34pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting fourxtrader
During the lull... only on this smaller 5M TF, for those interested in
MMA patterns:

Here's a pair, the EURJPY (only one of 15 I viewed) that is currently
in a tight compression on the 5M chart. All others have been moving
and now their EMAs are either gathering [i][color=#0000ff]or...
As to MA's this is how i use them, besides now for trend bucking, i only use the 1h to the 15min, so all my trades is off 15min never any other tf.
I would like to know your opinion, because your a expert on ma's.
Anyways, i only take the trade off the ma if the RR is more than 1:1 els i have found besides now for bad trading rules it works out less often.
This is a chart of eu as there was no setup for this on gu today.

Anyways, on the one hour there was a trade that found support at the moving avgs, and as highlighted more on the 35ma, so after that support it obviously is going to move up and at the next retrace i am following on the 15min ill buy at touch of the 35ma(yellow) as shown by arrow, note again only if RR is more than 1:1.

So in your opinion whts the verdict, then in addition, if it clearly blasts through the ma's i will close my position on breakeven or at next touch of that ma(which ever comes first) if the sl isnt taken out that is.

(just take note obviously this isnt my only way of entering the market but this is one of my most fun ways hehe)

Thanks for opinion.
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  • #272,782
  • Feb 23, 2011 4:48pm Feb 23, 2011 4:48pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
As to MA's this is how i use them, besides now for trend bucking, i only use the 1h to the 15min, so all my trades is off 15min never any other tf.
I would like to know your opinion, because your a expert on ma's.
Anyways, i only take the trade off the ma if the RR is more than 1:1 els i have found besides now for bad trading rules it works out less often.
This is a chart of eu as there was no setup for this on gu today.

Anyways, on the one hour there was a trade that found support at the moving avgs, and as highlighted more on the 35ma, so after...
Hi CD,

BTW, I liked your pic on 'global warming'. lol

Firstly, I'm not an expert on MAs as I maintain a narrow minded
view on them and only focus upon collective patterns of MMAs
and never as single points of S/R. I do know that Magix (and one
of his mentors) Eohater have studied their use extensively. I'm
sorry we have lost him to the EU 'wave pool'.

I certainly can give a novice opinion but I'm coming and going here
so I'll have to get back with you on your question later.

I'm needed in 'brain surgery' at the moment, JP is waiting.

Dr. D.

"it cuts like cheese, but turns to mush in the asylum"
  • #272,783
  • Feb 23, 2011 4:59pm Feb 23, 2011 4:59pm
5M GU c.pattern is heating up.

Dr. D.
Attached Image
  • #272,784
  • Edited 5:21pm Feb 23, 2011 5:20pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Hi CD,

BTW, I liked your pic on 'global warming'. lol

Firstly, I'm not an expert on MAs as I maintain a narrow minded
view on them and only focus upon collective patterns of MMAs
and never as single points of S/R. I do know that Magix (and one
of his mentors) Eohater have studied their use extensively. I'm
sorry we have lost him to the EU 'wave pool'....
Well yes the idea of looking at the MA as a 'support' line is alittle extreme yes, i dont view the ma as the reason for the price bouncing(as that would be a rediculous thing to say) i view those two because of there short term lenght as the following.
Seeing as it bounced off them on the hour its likley to return there again, thats my first reasoning for that, but obviously thats no reason to buy it again.
I only trade from frankfurt open until some time after New York open(3-4hours after that depending on events, but not later) as this is the time of most action, asian session for me is like snowboarding on sand, both works but the snowboard was made for the snow .

Ok so in these times wht will likley happen is price will break highs and lows and then the ma will just be round those areas(but usually get you in alittle cheaper) this way of entering is obviously just a retrace entry(so its not really the ma's support but the high or low's support but seeing as i already know it might return back there already i have a cheaper entry point) so also if it doesnt retrace so far and only back to the prev high or low it broke(but i only use some highs, youl see when i start posting charts often, i must just get into the rythem of posting while trading) then ill use PA for entry.

Ok hope that helps alittle with your rpl.
  • #272,785
  • Feb 23, 2011 6:51pm Feb 23, 2011 6:51pm
Quoting Cobby
hi BBKing

I use fibonacci levels on any timeframe and
draw them predominately to capture the retracement value of the last
2 fully formed obvious swing points...

85.4 is part of the fib sequence
100*0.618 = 61.8
61.8*0.618 = 38.2
38.2*0.618 = 23.6
with 14.6 = 100*0.618*0.618*0.618*0.618
100-14.6 = 85.4

Attachment
yes i use a lot fibo
but mostly h1 h4 daily... never used below h1
on faster timeframes i find it hard to use i dont understand where are tops n bottoms
tks for your postin!
very useful
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #272,786
  • Feb 23, 2011 6:54pm Feb 23, 2011 6:54pm
i was away hope some one looked at my previous post.
found support again on trend line near 6195

was a good buy level
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #272,787
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:05pm Feb 23, 2011 7:05pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Why did you pick your lower point (100) in an obvious middle of the uptrend?

Here's what I get... but I'm not polished at fibs.

Dr. D.
Hi Dr D,

there was a swing low there that defined the start of new demand...
on that timframe... given the rules that i use to define a swing low...
look at the m30 chart and it will show it more clearly...

the h4 trend displays the swing points and captures the fib retrace you are referring to...for me.
  • #272,788
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:17pm Feb 23, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
Well yes the idea of looking at the MA as a 'support' line is alittle extreme yes, i dont view the ma as the reason for the price bouncing(as that would be a rediculous thing to say) i view those two because of there short term lenght as the following.
Seeing as it bounced off them on the hour its likley to return there again, thats my first reasoning for that, but obviously thats no reason to buy it again.
I only trade from frankfurt open until some time after New York open(3-4hours after that depending on events, but not later) as this is the...
I follow what you are saying. Similarly, I just happen to use multiple EMAs
which give me parallel line patterns with more energy levels of ‘support’
or ‘resistance’ to create the bounce for re-entry or to fail for taking profit.

As far as RR 1:1, if a move is extended and the price has repeatedly pulled
back and bounced multiple times off of the same general MA level, at what
point will the move lose steam as the energy dissipates? How many times
will a rock when thrown skip along the water before it loses the speed and
sinks?

In which case, I like to drill down to a lower TF and find another compression
pattern forming which gives me more confidence that there is sufficient energy
to release in another move and I watch that TF for the direction; not taking
anything for granted that it should bounce again or reverse.

You might find that with any of these ‘bounces’ you have shown on the 15M
or the 1H that have released with good momentum, there will likely be a
compression pattern that initiated the move on some lower TF.

Just my view.

Dr. D.
  • #272,789
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:37pm Feb 23, 2011 7:37pm
dual fibs at potential supply zone...

will it lead to anything..who knows...?

Attached Image


Attached Image
  • #272,790
  • Feb 23, 2011 7:58pm Feb 23, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting Cobby
Hi Dr D,

there was a swing low there that defined the start of new demand...
on that timframe... given the rules that i use to define a swing low...
look at the m30 chart and it will show it more clearly...

the h4 trend displays the swing points and captures the fib retrace you are referring to...for me.
Your determinant points seem so arbitrary. Would you say
this is the typical fashion of drawing fibs or is it of your own
derivation? Like me and my compression patterns? lol

Now I need to consult the Fib guru, Ctic for deprogramming.

Dr. D.
  • #272,791
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:03pm Feb 23, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting fourxtrader
I follow what you are saying. Similarly, I just happen to use multiple EMAs
which give me parallel line patterns with more energy levels of ‘support’
or ‘resistance’ [color=black][font=Verdana][i][color=blue]to...
OK i slept way to much yesterday so i cant sleep, damn i hate it when i do this, then tomorrow ill be dead tired, but i need to stay awake now els ill mess up my slping pattern (and yes i know it cant be good for you hehe).
Ok as for the rock skipping quistion/bounces, i view 3 bounces as plenty and from there on in it becomes a guessing game really, usually it will try and form head and shoulders after round about 3 bounces(thats just my view on it, not that i specificly look at that to trade just a observation, and when i speak of bounce i mean making higher highs not bounces in a range, but i think you understand wht i mean).

As for the compression thing you speak of, well i only have 2ma's so its going to be hard to see a compression like yours hehe, but wht i view as basically a 'release' is when 15min bucks the 1hour movement.
Now the example i used there wasnt a perfect one i have to admit, but the compression would most likley be the area where the price was chopping on the ma's, and most prob at the open of frankfurt the 5min chart was a compression as you call it(as i cant say coz i dont have all those avg's on).
I just want to make sure we are on the same note, i look for a 'bounce' on the 1hour which would most likley cause a 'compression' on 15min so when this 'compression' releases it would then return to the MA and as for the reason explained in the prev msg i would buy the MA.
So i dont look for compressions on 1hour only for 'bounces'.

HEHE so we just look at it diff(if i understand you correctly), but are actially doing the same.
You say lower timeframe compression creates release for higher timeframes retrace.
And i say higher timeframe retrace creates compression on lower time frame hehe.

But either way i think we getting kinda in the same thing here??
  • #272,792
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:22pm Feb 23, 2011 8:22pm
Another test of 6250 ???

Why Why Why???

Will they roll it down again?

The oscillators say down, but remember: "the powers that be know ALL of our algorithms".
  • #272,793
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:37pm Feb 23, 2011 8:37pm
Quoting FerociousHit
Another test of 6250 ???

Why Why Why???

Will they roll it down again?

The oscillators say down, but remember: "the powers that be know ALL of our algorithms".
Well yes lets see but it feels as if thats going to be a definate factor in the trading day to come.
It will either test the neckline of yesterdays very scew h&s or it will test or break my area between the two red lines.
But only time and price will filter the future hehe.

But as far as speculation is going im looking for normal bearish divergence in european trading session and a bounce off that area to the short side.
But if i have learnd anything its not to put to much weight on your opinion and trade what you see in the present.

Btw i like your last sentence .
  • #272,794
  • Feb 23, 2011 8:38pm Feb 23, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
Well yes lets see but it feels as if thats going to be a definate factor in the trading day to come.
It will either test the neckline of yesterdays very scew h&s or it will test or break my area between the two red lines.
But only time and price will filter the future hehe.

But as far as speculation is going im looking for normal bearish divergence in european trading session and a bounce off that area to the short side.
But if i have learnd anything its not to put to much weight on your opinion and trade what you see in the present.

Btw i like...
LOL im slow sometimes hehe, forgot my chart hehe.
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  • #272,795
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:40pm Feb 23, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
LOL im slow sometimes hehe, forgot my chart hehe.
Hello.

Good observations, and advice.

I am always learning, and always grateful when others share their knowledge.

Would you please explain. Are the blue bands in your chart time zones? action zones? or something entirely different?

CJ
  • #272,796
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:48pm Feb 23, 2011 9:48pm
Quoting FerociousHit
Hello.

Good observations, and advice.

I am always learning, and always grateful when others share their knowledge.

Would you please explain. Are the blue bands in your chart time zones? action zones? or something entirely different?

CJ
Thanks very much, im to no extent a expert i believe i myself still have much more to learn, and thats why i decided to return here to compair my thoughts to others, and most likley the same reason your here like most .

As for the blue areas, its time zones yes.
Starting from frankfurts open to 1hour after london open is the lighter blue and the dark blue is up until 4hours after New York open as this is my trading times which i find works the best.
The time after the london session up until New York open i generally do not enter trades off price action, ill only enter if there is a pattern that formed.

Goodluck.
  • #272,797
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:18pm Feb 23, 2011 10:18pm
Quoting fourxtrader
Your determinant points seem so arbitrary. Would you say
this is the typical fashion of drawing fibs or is it of your own
derivation? Like me and my compression patterns? lol

Now I need to consult the Fib guru, Ctic for deprogramming.

Dr. D.
as for how others approach it... well I could not say...
I stick to the simple recent swings, I sometimes display them in posts on
different timeframes...
as for my own derivation, I have looked at 1000's of examples
and drawing conclusion and with lots of practice, I arrive at my own method for doing so.

the high point eventually came at the 85.4 area of the H1 and not the m30...oh well...
luckily I had my stop outside there... and bailed at the m15 previous resistance...

*interesting to note - the initial m30 85.4 fib has been respected
on the m5 on the last run up

Attached Image
  • #272,798
  • Feb 23, 2011 10:51pm Feb 23, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting CoffeeDrinke

As for the blue areas, its time zones yes...
Thank you.

Good info to have on the chart.

Here is a chart that seems easier on my eyes:
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Click to Enlarge Name: chart101.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #272,799
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:07pm Feb 23, 2011 11:07pm
Quoting FerociousHit
Thank you.

Good info to have on the chart.

Here is a chart that seems easier on my eyes:
It seems you believe in the action, reaction theory, i do not trade it that way, as i confuse myself hehe, but i do believe it has its place.
Nice chart.

So whts your view on your chart, following the theory seeing as it supported on the bottem band, it should somewhere along the top find resistance so it broke top trendline/band(whtever) so you buy the pullback there or you waiting for a break below again with retrace then selling??
Because there is big resistance on that chart.

Thanks.
  • #272,800
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:26pm Feb 23, 2011 11:26pm
I am thinking about trading this

 

  1. Looks like a double-top formation
  2. The pair has caught resistance at the ~1.6250 area recently

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2011-02-24 at 12.23.58 AM.jpg Size: 120 KB
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