Cable Update (GBPUSD)

US BANK HOLIDAY>?>?>ASIAN SESSION>?>?>LDN SESSION

I'm watching the 15M and how it'll affect the 30M.
The 5M could be a good trigger.

Could be a good time to continue in consolidation
to generate sufficient energy with the compression
to see if it will further close patterns on higher TF such
as the 30M and higher or bounce for another move
up at some recent highs.

Dr. D.

lets go

OK..you supply the puff puff and pass, ..Wait was that... puff?...
i'll do the dodgy charts.

Probably not worth trading today? 2 hrs before NY close and GU range for the day is still less than 55 pips. Watching paint dry's has more thrills. (EU is not much better tho'). Anyway since GU bounced off the 50 fib of Fridays range around lunchtime, and the Bears appear to have lost all interest in a retest of Thursday's high / Friday's low. Seems like we are now waiting for the Bulls to resume assult on 1.63......but maybe not likely before London open.

--Speculative investors pile into positive bets on the pound
--CFTC data show long positions highest since November 2007
--All eyes on Wednesday's BOE MPC minutes

By Clare Connaghan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Speculative investors have been slapping positive bets on the outlook for sterling recently, with weekly Commitments of Traders data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showing that long positions are now at their highest since November 2007.
"Rising rate-hike expectations are clearly behind the move, though it's worth noting that the positioning snapshot was taken the day before Bank of England Governor Mervyn King's relatively dovish performance at the Inflation Report press conference," said Gareth Berry, a currency strategist at UBS in Singapore.
In the week ending Feb. 15, traders almost doubled their positive bets on sterling, UBS said, noting that it was "one of the biggest one-week shifts in sterling sentiment ever recorded."
With U.K. inflation now running at double the target rate, pressure on the Bank of England to take action and raise interest rates is growing, which in turn has supported sterling.
Even King signaled for the first time last Tuesday that the Monetary Policy Committee could start to raise its key interest rate soon, although at a gradual pace.
Despite King's somewhat more hawkish tone, Wednesday's quarterly BOE Inflation Report disappointed the market and investors may have trimmed some of their long positions as a result, UBS said.
But it won't be long before investors resume their positive bets on the pound, said UBS, highlighting this Wednesday's publication of the latest BOE minutes.
Kasper Kirkegaard, a senior analyst at Danske Bank, agreed. "The Inflation Report was less hawkish than expected, which might have led to some position unwinding," he said. "However, the market was probably still fairly long sterling going into this week."
To be sure, the CFTC figures represent only a small slice of the foreign-exchange market and do come with a time lag.. But they are used as a proxy for market sentiment towards currencies based on the direction and volume of bets.
So far, the Bank of Canada is the only central bank from one of the Group of Seven leading economies to have raised its key interest rate and because the BOE looks increasingly likely to be the second, market participants are becoming increasingly bullish about sterling's outlook.
The breakdown of the latest Monetary Policy Committee vote will be made public this week, which may give further clues as to whether a rate rise is on the way.
"The discussion of the actual policy decision may be newsworthy," said economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland. "Certainly, the text in last month's minutes, which revealed that several committee members thought the policy decision was finely balanced and were effectively put off by the fear of spooking the market, moved rate expectations."
In January, Andrew Sentance and Martin Weale voted for a rise in interest rates from the current record low of 0.5%, while Adam Posen voted for an expansion in the BOE's bond-buying program.
But there appear to be growing divisions among the nine-member MPC.
"There is a great deal of uncertainty about the medium-term outlook for inflation," King wrote in a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne last week, explaining why inflation was running above the BOE's target level.
"I do not wish to conceal that there are real differences of view within the committee," he said in his letter.
Since the start of the year, the pound has notched up hefty gains against the dollar, climbing by almost 4%.
At 1230 GMT, the pound was trading at $1.6221 against the dollar compared with $1.6248 late Friday in New York.

[quote=Purple;4416925]--Speculative investors pile into positive bets on the pound
--CFTC data show long positions highest since November 2007
--All eyes on Wednesday's BOE MPC minutes

By Clare Connaghan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Speculative investors have been slapping positive bets on the outlook for sterling recently, with weekly Commitments of Traders data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showing that long positions are now at their highest since November 2007.
..........

So.......if everyone is long sterling,whose buying dollars (at any price...)? they seem destined to lose! or are incredibly smart

please guys let me understand only one thing:

nobody here think about a good and strong risk aversion coming up due to middle est lybia n egypt matters?

you all think on targetin 63 area in long ?

there is a strong level resistance 6340 near.

im short 6230 - 6220 will add till 6330

thinkin to hedge positions near 6170

[quote=mohgito;4416966] somewhere in the web i found an article sayin rockefeller short mode on euro usd since 35 area.

it is what it is

don't you worry....its coming, be patient. My desk has been long and building since 60, we're targeting 6485 before Friday. Many pairs are targeting psych numbers now (ie. eu-40, gu-65 au-03 uchf-92) bets have now become one sided against the dollar, and I dont think I have to tell you what happens given that fact....

Not sure that Greenback is the safe haven that it once used to be. Suspect that a dodgy Middle East will push up the price of oil (it already has), but other currencies are likely to benefit (e.g Euro) from a risk averse world.
In any event, seems like private battle between the pound and the dollar is all about inflation and interest rates. Why the market thinks that raising interest rates will be for the benefit of the UK economy baffles me. High interest rates + strong pound seems to me the last thing that a fragile export led recovery needs…….and even the expert agree that raising interest rates is not likely to have any impact on inflation in the near term. But….hell, the markets always right.

IMHO, don’t belive that the BOE is going to raise rates in the near future (George Osborne’s comments this morning were quite interesting). ….and there is going to be a major stampede for the exit somewhere south of 1.65. But I’m sure we’ll see 1.63. Runaway bull train’s heading that way!

ok it is all possible.
by the way i hedge positions near 6210 wich is also 23% fibo retrace from 5980

i will stop shorts tight above 6250 peak

but my target is 6330.

will get again position if breakes n closes above.
trend is in good n strong up but some where must turn down.

levels for shorts are 6360 (W1trendline) - 6450(W1 peak) - 6550 (W1 Sma200)
but i like too much that damn 6360 cross. see on weekly chart

---

I like your style.

I went Short @ 6224.

Lets see how far down she makes it tonight...

......long got stopped @be 6210 .......

its time to long??
buy GU at support 1.6182...

Good luck on that. Hope your desk also has some stops in place because the bull is about dead. I like a buy at .6000.