EUR/CHF

was down 120 points yesterday before anyone knew about UK data

yeah, but it was down because it couldn't breach the 1.3070 level so it turned south....and it would be "natural" for longs since 1.2400 to book some profits, so I wasn't surprised by the yesterday's fall...

but today, like the world is collapsing, no matter if we have an IMF world growth revision and upbeat US data forecast...without those two, the drop would be probably even stronger...

the drop in this pair is even more unlogical since we see a drop in the gold...

I would expect even larger drop in this pair, on an event of Japan's downgrade...but we're holding up nicely...this is another bullish confirmation for me...USD/CHF is also going up and it would be more normal for it to go down...I guess CHF is overvalued and mis-priced as well...

gold also slipping...and confirming it's to high...it's slide would cause USD/CHF short positions to be unwound, and that would lift USD/CHF and EUR/CHF as well, IMHO....

Hey Guys.

Just thought i would throw a cent out their with the direction. I trade the 1hr TF and for me EURCHF direction is south.

Peace

Picture of my current trade on EURCHF that i took yesterday.

Ended up being a nice short trade....the the silver line marked by the shaded yellow area was my exit, two positions= some nice pips.

Long EURCHF @1.2795.... SL @1.2679

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JAN) came at 2.4%...

what we're seeing is a build of inflation and interest rates hikes expectations...
for me, longer term this can only go up....

@Aussie Pride...nice work with a short trade...technicals did point out for going short (and Egypt crises as a fundamental for that)...but I am long term long...for this pair....and EUR/JPY and euro/dollar

my view is that SNB will not be raising rates before ECB...it will wait for ECB to be doing the first step and EUR/CHF should go up...they have already said that strong CHF is working as a restrictive monetary policy, and they simply don't have any reason to hike...they have much lower inflation.. their latest figures for DEC are 0.5% (NOV 0.2%) anual inflation rate, compared to Euro-zone's of 2.2 and now 2.4%

Update image of long EURCHF trade

LONDON—Inflation in the euro zone accelerated to its fastest pace in 27 months in January, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank ahead of its rate-setting meeting this week.
Consumer prices in the 17 nations that use the euro were up 2.4% from January a year ago, provisional data from the official statistics agency Eurostat showed Monday. That is above the ECB's target of close to, but just below, 2% on a mid-term horizon.
Prices rose 2.2% year-to-year in December. The last time inflation was higher was in October 2008, when it was 3.2%, Eurostat said. Despite inflation rising above its target, the ECB isn't expected to raise interest rates at its policy meeting Thursday due to continued fears over the resilience of the euro-zone economy.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...EFTTopWhatNews

I think that there is a bullish flag pattern in €/CHF. If the parabolic sar will be broken then there will be probably a bullish move upward.

http://s1.postimage.org/5jfzz2dg/screenshot_26.jpg

Mom -0.4% (expected -0,2%)
YoY 0,3% (expected 0,6%)...


this is a proof that SNB should start hiking rates way after the ECB
EUR/CHF surged 20 pips right away

Pretty obvious on this cross right now Still, my order was not hitted. Waiting it still on 50 Fibo.

CHF pretty weak still on the report sheeet.

Strong trend down - corrective moves.

Order hitted. Waiting game now on TPs side

...was really waiting game on SL side no worries... Down 0,30% and other crosses doing it go0ood, still agree on the trend!

I am still bullish...these factors such as Iranian war ships...(two times) caused a drop but with no real facts...Middle east tensions do play role, but I believe they will subside....inflation and interest differentials still play a role..and I belive we should go up, up to the 1.35 UBS target..
https://fx1.oanda.com/mod_perl/news/....pl?id=1882728

I'll be a buyer on EURCHF around 1,2850 targeting return to the 50 and 100 SMA, around 1.30 with stop loss 1,2750.

-Effective lending increased from currrent 250 up to 440 billion EUR (EFSF)
-future program starting in 2013 will have capacity of up to 500 billion EUR
-lowered interest rates for Greece for 1% (now the average is 4.2%) in return for privatisation of government land worth 50 billion EUR
-no cut in interest rates for Ireland (they expect that the new prime minister will concede to demands for increasing the corporate taxes on the March 24 meeting, and then they will lower it also 1%
-allowing purchasing bonds by the ESFM on the primary market, not on the secondary market (what the ECB does at the moment)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe1530e6-4...#axzz1GOESLrlf
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...bt-crisis.html

EUR positive, EUR/CHF in particular IMO
on the final meeting will get a full scale agreement and I believe that will cement EUR worries.... pair EUR/CHF should go up...

EURCHF is in downtrend. Don't know what smart can I say, on daily chart...but wait to see end of that triangle.