DislikedSame to you... but man this greed is killing me slowly. The Ponzi Scheme Index (DJIA) makes new highs everyday, XAU/XAG refuses to die, and dont get me started on the carry trade pairs, zero risk trades nowadays. This is a brutal environment for a perma-bear. Everything wants to go up up up, no one's fearful of anything. These green candles are making me sick.Ignored
- #22,321
- Feb 11, 2011 1:55pm Feb 11, 2011 1:55pm
- Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Weebley Wobbly Timey Wimey stuff | 10,604 Posts
- #22,322
- Feb 12, 2011 5:53am Feb 12, 2011 5:53am
- | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: It pays to be conservative | 1,001 Posts
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
- #22,323
- Feb 13, 2011 1:14pm Feb 13, 2011 1:14pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻ | 1,339 Posts
Evening guys, hope you had a good weekend!
This is what I'm looking at this week.
I appreciate it's very colourful lol
We ended the week bullish but at quite a bit of resistance at 83.50, so I would like to see this broken before adding to longs.
If 83.50 turns out to be a resistance point, I would expect us to drop down to 82.50 (thick red line), then if we have a break further onto the ascending trend line at around 81.50 before a move higher.
Also, the 50% Fib level comes in at 82.50 from the low of 01/02 which strengthens this support level.
On the contrary, a move up through 83.50 I would expect to see the 85.00 area hit pretty quickly as the bears start to get nervous.
There will be tough resistance at 84.50 so a large bunch of stops can be expected above.
The monthly R2 pivot comes in at 84.84. So as stops are cleared out at 84.50, 84.84 becomes perfect shorting territory.
Another reason to remain bullish throughout this week is we are at the highs of the month (currently up 1.64%), so we have this bullish momentum bringing us into this weeks trading.
H4
This is what I'm looking at this week.
I appreciate it's very colourful lol
We ended the week bullish but at quite a bit of resistance at 83.50, so I would like to see this broken before adding to longs.
If 83.50 turns out to be a resistance point, I would expect us to drop down to 82.50 (thick red line), then if we have a break further onto the ascending trend line at around 81.50 before a move higher.
Also, the 50% Fib level comes in at 82.50 from the low of 01/02 which strengthens this support level.
On the contrary, a move up through 83.50 I would expect to see the 85.00 area hit pretty quickly as the bears start to get nervous.
There will be tough resistance at 84.50 so a large bunch of stops can be expected above.
The monthly R2 pivot comes in at 84.84. So as stops are cleared out at 84.50, 84.84 becomes perfect shorting territory.
Another reason to remain bullish throughout this week is we are at the highs of the month (currently up 1.64%), so we have this bullish momentum bringing us into this weeks trading.
H4
- #22,324
- Feb 13, 2011 1:29pm Feb 13, 2011 1:29pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻ | 1,339 Posts
On the Yen futures we are sitting right above support at 11.92.
A bounce here would push USD/JPY further south as the Yen strengthens.
A break at 11.92 and I will look for a push towards 11.84.
Yen Futures H4
A bounce here would push USD/JPY further south as the Yen strengthens.
A break at 11.92 and I will look for a push towards 11.84.
Yen Futures H4
- #22,325
- Feb 13, 2011 2:59pm Feb 13, 2011 2:59pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2010 | 1,300 Posts
We ended the week bullish but at quite a bit of resistance at 83.50, so I would like to see this broken before adding to longs.
83.50 seems strong but be careful. give it to 83.75.
I enjoyed reading your post.
- #22,326
- Feb 13, 2011 3:06pm Feb 13, 2011 3:06pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻ | 1,339 Posts
Me as well.
83.50 seems strong but be careful. give it to 83.75.
I enjoyed reading your post.
I'm currently long from last week, so will watch Mondays sessions carefully in regards to a potential breakout or retracement.
Hope you had a good weekend end and have a profitable week!
- #22,327
- Feb 13, 2011 3:09pm Feb 13, 2011 3:09pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2010 | 1,300 Posts
Thank you.
I'm currently long from last week, so will watch Mondays sessions carefully in regards to a potential breakout or retracement.
Hope you had a good weekend end and have a profitable week!
If you are Long if it gets down to 83, do not sweat it.
- #22,328
- Feb 13, 2011 3:29pm Feb 13, 2011 3:29pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Evening guys, hope you had a good weekend!
This is what I'm looking at this week.
I appreciate it's very colourful lol
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #22,329
- Feb 13, 2011 3:31pm Feb 13, 2011 3:31pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻ | 1,339 Posts
I'll 'Noda' it )
- #22,330
- Feb 13, 2011 3:56pm Feb 13, 2011 3:56pm
Great analysis, as awlays, thank you.....and thanks for the Yen futures chart. I'm flat on this pair at the moment, so I'll 'Noda' it and see what opportunities present themselves over the coming sessions.
- .. I must add that to my vocab. "Be sure to Noda that water, dont want it to overflow!"
"Did you Noda the pot?"
On a more serious note, the market has seemed to reach a "what now" point... In retrospect, although it ain't over yet, I found it quite amazing that the pair did not dip below the pretty number of 80 to take out stops - That would have thinned out the herd dramatically. I suppose the BOJ spent big bucks to prop it up above that level. Although Im bullish on this pair long term I still have prints of >80 stuck in mind with buy orders below accordingly.
I've been attempting to fade the carry pairs but alas risk is still in play however I'm expecting a sharp reversal in Interest high pairs vis a vis the yen. Even in this regard it feels as if someone is propping these' up.
How much interest rate arbitrage can the market handle?
In ending - call me cooko
- But imo, before U/J can stage any signifigant rally, the bulk of short Yen positions must be flushed out accordingly.
- #22,331
- Feb 13, 2011 4:11pm Feb 13, 2011 4:11pm
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻ | 1,339 Posts
Ok, I appreciate there's not much to see on the chart at the moment as it's the week so far. The two main support levels I'm looking at for tomorrow is,
83.43 - Daily Pivot and monthly R1 pivot.
83.20 - Daily S1 but also it coincides with last weeks ascending trend line, which if broken may help the drop south a little easier.
WSF M5
83.43 - Daily Pivot and monthly R1 pivot.
83.20 - Daily S1 but also it coincides with last weeks ascending trend line, which if broken may help the drop south a little easier.
WSF M5
- #22,332
- Feb 14, 2011 1:42am Feb 14, 2011 1:42am
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻ | 1,339 Posts
83.20 - Daily S1 but also it coincides with last weeks ascending trend line, which if broken may help the drop south a little easier.
Now looking for a test of 82.95 (Daily S2 & Weekly Pivot) with stops below.
M5
- #22,333
- Feb 14, 2011 2:29am Feb 14, 2011 2:29am
- | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: It pays to be conservative | 1,001 Posts
Re: - "call me cookoo" paragraph;
In principal I agree with you, a bottom normally requires a flush to trigger stop loss orders, yet when it comes to retracements that is not necessarily so, IMO monthly chart can retrace to 90 & it will still be contained within a trend (see 20sma monthly basis).
In principal I agree with you, a bottom normally requires a flush to trigger stop loss orders, yet when it comes to retracements that is not necessarily so, IMO monthly chart can retrace to 90 & it will still be contained within a trend (see 20sma monthly basis).
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
- #22,334
- Feb 14, 2011 4:56am Feb 14, 2011 4:56am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
- #22,335
- Feb 14, 2011 5:29am Feb 14, 2011 5:29am
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Re-member | 6,497 Posts
Just a matter of time.....
looks a bit too easy though
- #22,336
- Feb 14, 2011 5:58am Feb 14, 2011 5:58am
- | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: It pays to be conservative | 1,001 Posts
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
- #22,337
- Feb 14, 2011 6:17am Feb 14, 2011 6:17am
- Joined Nov 2009 | Status: ŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻŻ | 1,339 Posts
We are at the Monthly R1 Pivot and the Daily Pivot again. If it breaks I would like to see the Daily R1 which is around the current high for the month.
If we get rejected here I would look for a bounce at around 83.30.
I too am playing Noda at the moment.
M5
If we get rejected here I would look for a bounce at around 83.30.
I too am playing Noda at the moment.
M5
- #22,340
- Feb 14, 2011 6:39am Feb 14, 2011 6:39am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined