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USD/JPY Discussion

Quoting Warwick
Same to you... but man this greed is killing me slowly. The Ponzi Scheme Index (DJIA) makes new highs everyday, XAU/XAG refuses to die, and dont get me started on the carry trade pairs, zero risk trades nowadays. This is a brutal environment for a perma-bear. Everything wants to go up up up, no one's fearful of anything. These green candles are making me sick.
I got caught completely off guard on the swissy on Wednesday.
Let's look at the big picture regarding Ninja ie Monthly frame. I am not going to delve into great detail as you can reference the chart yourselves. I am not going to bring up any fundamental reasons, just where price has gone from to get where it is now. I specialize in price/histogram analysis, hence I will bring up the book perfect divergence on Ninja's Monthly chart, which is now a Quad. When it was a triple one price was pushed towards 80 zone, as it was an ultimate magnet. A triple failed then (my trade along with it), but now we have tested the 80 zone & at the same time a quad divergence has formed. People that bought the Yen (started accumulating) few years back are watching this pretty closely, very closely. Long term, yes, Yen has probably more scope for strengthening, but mid-term this quad vs 80 zone rejection point to a strong retrace to 90 or perhaps even 100 as it was a support for so many years which collapsed a few years ago. Also notice how Japanese government together with BOJ have all of the sudden lost their vocal cords after Mr Kan met up with Mr Obama few months back.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
Evening guys, hope you had a good weekend!

This is what I'm looking at this week.
I appreciate it's very colourful lol

We ended the week bullish but at quite a bit of resistance at 83.50, so I would like to see this broken before adding to longs.
If 83.50 turns out to be a resistance point, I would expect us to drop down to 82.50 (thick red line), then if we have a break further onto the ascending trend line at around 81.50 before a move higher.
Also, the 50% Fib level comes in at 82.50 from the low of 01/02 which strengthens this support level.
On the contrary, a move up through 83.50 I would expect to see the 85.00 area hit pretty quickly as the bears start to get nervous.
There will be tough resistance at 84.50 so a large bunch of stops can be expected above.
The monthly R2 pivot comes in at 84.84. So as stops are cleared out at 84.50, 84.84 becomes perfect shorting territory.
Another reason to remain bullish throughout this week is we are at the highs of the month (currently up 1.64%), so we have this bullish momentum bringing us into this weeks trading.

H4
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On the Yen futures we are sitting right above support at 11.92.
A bounce here would push USD/JPY further south as the Yen strengthens.
A break at 11.92 and I will look for a push towards 11.84.

Yen Futures H4
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Quoting fosking

We ended the week bullish but at quite a bit of resistance at 83.50, so I would like to see this broken before adding to longs.
Me as well.

83.50 seems strong but be careful. give it to 83.75.

I enjoyed reading your post.

Quoting Astroman
Me as well.

83.50 seems strong but be careful. give it to 83.75.

I enjoyed reading your post.

Thank you.
I'm currently long from last week, so will watch Mondays sessions carefully in regards to a potential breakout or retracement.

Hope you had a good weekend end and have a profitable week!
Quoting fosking
Thank you.
I'm currently long from last week, so will watch Mondays sessions carefully in regards to a potential breakout or retracement.

Hope you had a good weekend end and have a profitable week!
Thanks!

If you are Long if it gets down to 83, do not sweat it.
Quoting fosking
Evening guys, hope you had a good weekend!

This is what I'm looking at this week.
I appreciate it's very colourful lol
Great analysis, as awlays, thank you.....and thanks for the Yen futures chart. I'm flat on this pair at the moment, so I'll 'Noda' it and see what opportunities present themselves over the coming sessions.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
Quoting realjumper
I'll 'Noda' it )
Haha
Quoting realjumper
Great analysis, as awlays, thank you.....and thanks for the Yen futures chart. I'm flat on this pair at the moment, so I'll 'Noda' it and see what opportunities present themselves over the coming sessions.
- .. I must add that to my vocab.

"Be sure to Noda that water, dont want it to overflow!"
"Did you Noda the pot?"


On a more serious note, the market has seemed to reach a "what now" point... In retrospect, although it ain't over yet, I found it quite amazing that the pair did not dip below the pretty number of 80 to take out stops - That would have thinned out the herd dramatically. I suppose the BOJ spent big bucks to prop it up above that level. Although Im bullish on this pair long term I still have prints of >80 stuck in mind with buy orders below accordingly.

I've been attempting to fade the carry pairs but alas risk is still in play however I'm expecting a sharp reversal in Interest high pairs vis a vis the yen. Even in this regard it feels as if someone is propping these' up.

How much interest rate arbitrage can the market handle?

In ending - call me cooko - But imo, before U/J can stage any signifigant rally, the bulk of short Yen positions must be flushed out accordingly.
Ok, I appreciate there's not much to see on the chart at the moment as it's the week so far. The two main support levels I'm looking at for tomorrow is,
83.43 - Daily Pivot and monthly R1 pivot.
83.20 - Daily S1 but also it coincides with last weeks ascending trend line, which if broken may help the drop south a little easier.

WSF M5
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Quoting fosking
83.20 - Daily S1 but also it coincides with last weeks ascending trend line, which if broken may help the drop south a little easier.
Price broke last weeks ascending trend line I was watching from last weekend and has cleared the daily S1 pivot.
Now looking for a test of 82.95 (Daily S2 & Weekly Pivot) with stops below.

M5
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Re: - "call me cookoo" paragraph;

In principal I agree with you, a bottom normally requires a flush to trigger stop loss orders, yet when it comes to retracements that is not necessarily so, IMO monthly chart can retrace to 90 & it will still be contained within a trend (see 20sma monthly basis).




Quoting Warwick
- .. I must add that to my vocab....
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
Just a matter of time.....
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
Quoting realjumper
Just a matter of time.....
hehe, looking at almost the same thing just now...

looks a bit too easy though
According to Oanda retail shorts have dropped from about 80% vs long to 68 vs 32%. Goodish sign for upside.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
We are at the Monthly R1 Pivot and the Daily Pivot again. If it breaks I would like to see the Daily R1 which is around the current high for the month.
If we get rejected here I would look for a bounce at around 83.30.
I too am playing Noda at the moment.

M5
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Quoting jsspmk
According to Oanda retail shorts have dropped from about 80% vs long to 68 vs 32%. Goodish sign for upside.
Thanks!

This is from FXCM Retail Accounts

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.95 as nearly 75% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.54 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.8% higher than yesterday and 19.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 37.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 78.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.
If it breaks 83 retail accounts will go long as usuall. Don't pay much attention on that "indicator".

We may start seeing carry trade taking shape again. Altough a lot has change since those times. More regulation, and deleveraged, I would even say less greeding on corners as well.

Being humble is the new word on the street.

Short term I say we're going to see a range between 82.6-83-6 on the following days.
Quoting realjumper
Just a matter of time.....
"Noda" is the best comment on the chart in a while!
The Market pays you to be disciplined
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