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  • #385,301
  • Feb 12, 2011 12:24pm Feb 12, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting kill56
dammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm get a life guys lol all of us crackforexheads u ,we cant give it up , any way try to enjoy the weekend stay away from the pipe , get some ema or fib and go walk u dog
Ha! It only gets worse. Wife's out of town, and I sat down and started to read the Optimized Trend Trading thread until they outed the original poster.

By that time my eyes were glazing over, and I came to this thread a little cranky. But nothing going on on this thread, it's a beautiful day here, and you are absolutely right. I'm mentally V-chipping all of this until tomorrow afternoon.
  • #385,302
  • Feb 12, 2011 12:30pm Feb 12, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting the redlion
i will stand corrected if i see the market ranging at about 1.35 for the next week or so the it found its new fair price. at that point an uptrend might start but doesnt look promising

July of 08 1.60'sh

november of 09 1.51'sh

november of 10 1.42 ish

LAST MAJOR YEARLY PEEKS
If this descending tl is violated, we can think about a range, until then, IMO it's bears in charge. Xe is showing EU trading at 1.3528 now and we (although very briefly) broke the previous low at 1.3510. Typically in this situation, after 3 bearish daily pinbars, we will get a large-ish gap down, followed by a very long bearish H4 candle. But of course, anything can happen...
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  • #385,303
  • Feb 12, 2011 12:40pm Feb 12, 2011 12:40pm
do you think after the end of MUBARAK (egyptian president) .. the dollar will be affected ?? and in which way??

thanks
  • #385,304
  • Feb 12, 2011 1:13pm Feb 12, 2011 1:13pm
PA came to support zone, once was strong resistance it should be a strong support now.

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  • #385,305
  • Feb 12, 2011 1:30pm Feb 12, 2011 1:30pm
Quoting kill56
dammmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm get a life guys lol all of us crackforexheads u ,we cant give it up , any way try to enjoy the weekend stay away from the pipe , get some ema or fib and go walk u dog
Hey KILL! I've been trying to 'walk the dog' style, It seems promising. And anything that promises to keep us 'noobs' out of trouble
is good to me. Thanks for the suggestion. I hope the weekend is treating you well.
Take care
  • #385,306
  • Feb 12, 2011 1:52pm Feb 12, 2011 1:52pm
Quoting fontu
Ok , I admit it . but surely need to know which 3 & which 2 disagree to correct myself.
First I admit also that after 1000s of pips movements & using ew counts & waves still have suspecious it is in an impulse or correction , see monthly & understand what talking about & we have not enough data due limited online trading history itself , though we do not use this tf...
Hi Fontu,

my post was not meant to criticize you but rather to step into discussion with you. You, my friend do here, day in - day out, an outstanding job in analyzing EURUSD.

I think that Awesome Oscillator in conjunction with RSI is the best tool to identify the waves. I work with them extensively on all TF's (if they have enough data acquired - one need between 100-150 bars).

You are very right and I too have stated it many times: analyzing EURUSD with EW is a tricky thing due to the lack of really historical data. So we do not really where we stand with EURUSD. We often take a look at UDX to compare it. But history might teach us a good lesson in the future, that we, in the end, were all deadly wrong.

And a second obstacle is, that analyzing currency pairs with EW is a special tricky thing since you do not have here a single entity to analyze but in fact two - EUR and USD within one chart. Therefore I often say, that it is not the best thing from all to analyze currencys with EW. Counts/Waves are often muddy and oftentimes we can count both corrective and impulsive in one wave.

To be wrong on a count by looking back is not kind of a shame or so, since we only do constantly our best guess of the moves (highest probabilities).
We do not have the crystal ball so we have a right to be wrong like every other here. But I think that we EW guys here do a fairly good job here, especially you, Fontu.

Keep up the good work,

kind regards,

Markus
  • #385,307
  • Feb 12, 2011 2:08pm Feb 12, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting fx111
PA came to support zone, once was strong resistance it should be a strong support now.

Attachment
the weekly chart looks like it may want to break this support. but i will wait for the support to break and retest before trading, will be an interesting week.
  • #385,308
  • Feb 12, 2011 2:22pm Feb 12, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting Purple
Use this link to project targets using EW... unfortunately I am not that good at EW..

http://www.terminusa.com.ar/EWT/EWT.php
Hello Purple,

thanks for the good link. Will see if it works for me :-)


I seldom work with fib ratios in EW waves since there seems not a really high significance in which fib level to choose. If I remember correctly Prechter had a study or so about it. Have to dig for it.........

Regarding fibs: I use fib retracements, fib fans and so on on my chart to look for points, where many of this fib confluences come together.

Best to you,

Markus
  • #385,309
  • Feb 12, 2011 2:23pm Feb 12, 2011 2:23pm
here is the euro monthly futures chart I promised ..

euro is being bought on all down bars HEAVILY , that is all I know for now.

Either that or everyone just woke up and started trading in 2010

1.6 and higher , monthly is after all just a bull flag .....could usd be dead in water by 2012 ? or does this means the bull market cycle of us stock market is only just beginning and dj 20,000 target in the next 5 years cycle

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #385,310
  • Feb 12, 2011 2:35pm Feb 12, 2011 2:35pm
Quoting clc4x
i agree with you that EURUSD is in wave 2 or B.

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Hi CLC,

no, no, no :-)

My count and Fontus too are opposite of your count:

Fontu and I see us in a wave 3 down, not up.

I only have discussion with Fontu about the placement of a subwave 3 in this bigger wave 3 down.


Best to you,

Markus
  • #385,311
  • Feb 12, 2011 2:45pm Feb 12, 2011 2:45pm
Quoting SunTrader
Well then answer me this one question:

How do you plot a 1000 MA on a symbol that hasn't been around 19.23 years let alone 83.33 years?

Oh and where did I mention trading based on this? I only questioned the usefullness.


Usefulness? There is none. I wasn't looking for anything OTHER THAN A DAMN AVERAGE OF PRICE OVER IT'S LIFESPAN.

As for how it plotted, ask the charting package from GCI Financial. It worked fine... The results on the monthly may be questionable, but there is 21+ years of history there.
The monthly chart starts in May of 1989.


Where's the beer?
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #385,312
  • Feb 12, 2011 3:03pm Feb 12, 2011 3:03pm
Quoting Bruce Flea
Usefulness? There is none..... there is 21+ years of history .........
which includes about 10 years of pseudo prices.
  • #385,313
  • Feb 12, 2011 3:15pm Feb 12, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting malcolmb14
euro is being bought on all down bars HEAVILY , that is all I know for now.
Attachment
Euro is being bought on all down bars HEAVILY.... of course it is... it's also being sold...

Also the lower the price gets the cheaper it is, the more turnover there is going to be... I think you need to differentiate between volume and turnover.

Don't you think malcolm?
  • #385,314
  • Feb 12, 2011 3:26pm Feb 12, 2011 3:26pm
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  • #385,315
  • Feb 12, 2011 3:29pm Feb 12, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting Purple
Use this link to project targets using EW... unfortunately I am not that good at EW..

http://www.terminusa.com.ar/EWT/EWT.php

nice link... basic but good... I have one somewhere which i need to find - wasn't built by me but has additional fibs to work with...
  • #385,316
  • Feb 12, 2011 3:45pm Feb 12, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
here is the euro monthly futures chart I promised ..

euro is being bought on all down bars HEAVILY , that is all I know for now.

Either that or everyone just woke up and started trading in 2010

1.6 and higher , monthly is after all just a bull flag .....could usd be dead in water by 2012 ? or does this means the bull market cycle of us stock market is only just beginning and dj 20,000 target in the next 5 years cycle

Attachment

interesting chart malc... i am not too familiar with vsa so i won't comment but if it works for you then great!

however just watching PA this past week - there are some heavy sellers entering the market... the daily chart showing a drop from 38 to 35 then retracing back to 3750 is personally telling me people are exiting from their long positions and entering short at a higher price..

this is just speaking from PA pov from me personally - i could be wrong.. but next week will hopefully give us an answer as to what the market wants to do...

the 35 level is a massive psychological level so i would expect it to bounce here at LEAST a couple of times... either way... GL with your trade... roll on next week
  • #385,317
  • Feb 12, 2011 4:07pm Feb 12, 2011 4:07pm
Quoting Musashi
Euro is being bought on all down bars HEAVILY.... of course it is... it's also being sold...

Also the lower the price gets the cheaper it is, the more turnover there is going to be... I think you need to differentiate between volume and turnover.

Don't you think malcolm?
Absolutely Musashi, you made me look at the COT charts and there isn't a big difference there compared to a normal trend between sharks and fish...
  • #385,318
  • Feb 12, 2011 4:10pm Feb 12, 2011 4:10pm
Quoting Larseg
So how was this week pipwise people, anyone really really happy or really really sad
Happy, sad, is relative. When you get used to profit and loss you lose emotion.


Even consistency is relative.
  • #385,319
  • Feb 12, 2011 4:11pm Feb 12, 2011 4:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
here is the euro monthly futures chart I promised ..

euro is being bought on all down bars HEAVILY , that is all I know for now.

Either that or everyone just woke up and started trading in 2010

1.6 and higher , monthly is after all just a bull flag .....could usd be dead in water by 2012 ? or does this means the bull market cycle of us stock market is only just beginning and dj 20,000 target in the next 5 years cycle

Attachment
sure, why not...

Quote
"Early in 1930, Alamo Dairy [in Texas] placed an ad for their Jersey milk and cream that included a price list. Whole milk at wholesale was 45¢ a gallon, 14¢ a quart, retail."
with galon milk at $55, or one egg at $15.. With the exponential curve of QE1, QE2,... QE99; Tha't not Impossible..

If EU still exists as Union.. EUR/USD is set for higher levels.. Finally they are running all SHOW.. [so far]
  • #385,320
  • Feb 12, 2011 4:14pm Feb 12, 2011 4:14pm
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before any news, any reports - already all the information you need




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its mine ..............
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