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Building an equity millipede

  • #4,241
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:24pm Feb 11, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting VEEFX
Looks like we are soon going to have another volatility breakout downward...
Stacking resumed after I woke up this morning. Unrealized pips exploded to 1840 pips across 18 positions.
Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap33.jpg Size: 75 KB


p.s. Let's keep this thread interactive as I may not be on this public forum any longer than required.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,242
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:30pm Feb 11, 2011 12:30pm
I will close most positions under floating under 200 pips of unrealized profit before market closes today to reduce my exposure over the weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap34.jpg Size: 99 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,243
  • Feb 11, 2011 1:02pm Feb 11, 2011 1:02pm
[quote=VEEFX;4392190]
Attachment
Here's further analysis on how I plan to group my positions for this journey to build my first equity millipede.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap35.jpg Size: 102 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,244
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:09pm Feb 11, 2011 2:09pm
[quote=VEEFX;4392281]
Quoting VEEFX
Attachment
Here's further analysis on how I plan to group my positions for this journey to build my first equity millipede.
Dear VEEFX

it is a good job you are doing. I am wondering how you set your stops? It looks like you do not set them actually, only at the time you leave - correct me if I am wrong.

Let us say your plan would not work out. What would you do? What do you do if one or 3 of your position is in -30 or -40 pips paper loss?
Does that not prove that you were wrong? You see, this is one of my bigges chalanges, that is why the question.

I did stack today not too badly, but than the market started to move against me and I ended up with a loss and no positions left.

Interesting....
Kind Regards zol
  • #4,245
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:55pm Feb 11, 2011 2:55pm
Hi there,

I don't see any positions in that screenshot that are over 200 pips in unrealized profits. Can I assume you are meaning 20 pips (200 fractional pips, sometimes called pipettes)?

With kind regards,
MK

Quoting VEEFX
I will close most positions under floating under 200 pips of unrealized profit before market closes today to reduce my exposure over the weekend.
Attachment
  • #4,246
  • Feb 11, 2011 8:05pm Feb 11, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting MidKnight
Hi there,

I don't see any positions in that screenshot that are over 200 pips in unrealized profits. Can I assume you are meaning 20 pips (200 fractional pips, sometimes called pipettes)?

With kind regards,
MK
Hi MK,

I did mean 200 pips as I was anticipating most of my 'older' open positions to stay above 200pips in profit this morning. I went against my intention at market close but decided to leave all my 9 positions open over the weekend. Due to the retrace, my unrealized profit dropped down to 1394 pips but managed to double my realized gains from 90 to 198 pips. Time will tell if these positions survive next week and beyond but should I care? I have already booked 198 pips this week since Tuesday and my scorecard for this group is balanced. This is the true power of this strategy !

Question to you and others: Would it make sense to open a long trade of a position size equal to my total open position size (10*0.04=0.4 lots) to 'protect' my unrealized profits against weekend gap. Is this a viable strategy to implement? I realize Graeme doesn't care as most of the time he would have positions in both direction and across multiple pairs. While we get to that stage, I think it might be worthwhile to implement such a protection.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,247
  • Feb 11, 2011 8:25pm Feb 11, 2011 8:25pm
[quote=zoli;4392411]
Quoting VEEFX

Dear VEEFX

it is a good job you are doing. I am wondering how you set your stops? It looks like you do not set them actually, only at the time you leave - correct me if I am wrong.

Let us say your plan would not work out. What would you do? What do you do if one or 3 of your position is in -30 or -40 pips paper loss?
Does that not prove that you were wrong? You see, this is one of my bigges chalanges, that is why the question.

I did stack today not too badly, but than the market started to move against me and...
Good question zoli. Let me explain by giving you the latest snapshot of my progress for comparison.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap39.jpg Size: 169 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,248
  • Feb 11, 2011 9:01pm Feb 11, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting VEEFX
Hi MK,

I did mean 200 pips as I was anticipating most of my 'older' open positions to stay above 200pips in profit this morning. I went against my intention at market close but decided to leave all my 9 positions open over the weekend. Due to the retrace, my unrealized profit dropped down to 1394 pips but managed to double my realized gains from 90 to 198 pips. Time will tell if these positions survive next week and beyond but should I care? I have already booked 198 pips this week since Tuesday and my scorecard for this group is balanced. This...

You will need a better reason than that to go the other way.
Like hindsight change or momentum change.
  • #4,249
  • Feb 11, 2011 9:58pm Feb 11, 2011 9:58pm
Quoting foxybunny
You will need a better reason than that to go the other way.
Like hindsight change or momentum change.
I agree foxybunny. I forgot to mention this opposite trade will last only for the duration over the weekend for gap protection. Upon sunday open, if price gaps up, it could exit the protection (depending on price action interpretation) @ Sunday open and still make a decent short term profit provided the price continued to go down next week in the direction of my hindsight.

Probably not worth the hassle. I was thinking perhaps additional spreads might be worth the insurance against weekend gaps.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,250
  • Feb 12, 2011 1:30am Feb 12, 2011 1:30am
Quoting VEEFX
Question to you and others: Would it make sense to open a long trade of a position size equal to my total open position size (10*0.04=0.4 lots) to 'protect' my unrealized profits against weekend gap. Is this a viable strategy to implement? I realize Graeme doesn't care as most of the time he would have positions in both direction and across multiple pairs. While we get to that stage, I think it might be worthwhile to implement such a protection.
Thanks for the clarification Vee. I personally wouldn't do that. The size is too big and implies that you are absolutely certain the position is in danger. No one knows what will happen, so one can never be certain. I prefer to treat longs and shorts as separate as my small brain will allow it. When I have had good stacking success like you have had this week, my mind has trouble with this and I have a hard time wearing both a long guy hat and a short guy hat at the same time. My crude solution to that is only go against my recent success at very obvious locations and base it off the higher time frame charts. I need some proof of context to go the other way - all just my approach, and my approach is also a work in progress as I, like you, try to apply some millipede practices. It is not infallible by any means

With kind regards,
MK
  • #4,251
  • Feb 12, 2011 9:49am Feb 12, 2011 9:49am
Quoting VEEFX
I agree foxybunny. I forgot to mention this opposite trade will last only for the duration over the weekend for gap protection. Upon sunday open, if price gaps up, it could exit the protection (depending on price action interpretation) @ Sunday open and still make a decent short term profit provided the price continued to go down next week in the direction of my hindsight.

Probably not worth the hassle. I was thinking perhaps additional spreads might be worth the insurance against weekend gaps.
I already assumed your opposite trade was temporary for the weekend.
You would be too much second guessing yourself doing this.
Your only protection is to move to BE (that you done) or just take profit in some positions.

Definitely not worth the hassle for just the weekend gap because there is no valid reason and you will never know whether it is gap up or gap down or no gap.
The only valid reason for this would be Fri late night gave you a change of bias, then you could enter the reverse trade.
  • #4,252
  • Feb 12, 2011 11:30am Feb 12, 2011 11:30am
Quoting foxybunny
I already assumed your opposite trade was temporary for the weekend.
You would be too much second guessing yourself doing this.
Your only protection is to move to BE (that you done) or just take profit in some positions.

Definitely not worth the hassle for just the weekend gap because there is no valid reason and you will never know whether it is gap up or gap down or no gap.
The only valid reason for this would be Fri late night gave you a change of bias, then you could enter the reverse trade.
Thanks MK and Foxybunny for your insight. I ran a 'model' in excel last night to see the effect of gap and it will do more harm that good for my focal interpretation and it could also mess up my hindsight. My hindsight remains short for next week. So at the end of next week, I will decide whether to go long or not. This would also follow Graeme's advice of letting the leg grow for atleast 2 weeks before diversification. Become a bigger person and let them die at BE is probably the best route to take.

P.S. my 2 cents for those who think setting trades @ BE over weekend is 100% risk-free. It is quite the contrary as there is no broker I know of (except Oanda) that will honor SL during weekend gaps. Some brokers will trigger at Sunday open price (which is bad) and some brokers (like Interactive Brokers that I use) will not trigger at all letting the trades go down in loss (which is horrible). This happened to me during the debt crisis in Greece last year turning my profitable position into a $7000 loss with a weekend gap over 100+ pips in eurusd. Hence the keen interest in protecting my profits AND preventing going in loss :-(
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,253
  • Feb 12, 2011 1:46pm Feb 12, 2011 1:46pm
As a small aside regarding IB. Are you sure they will not trigger? There is a checkbox called something like 'Allow stops to be triggered outside regular trading hours' somewhere in the order settings. This should allow you to get them triggered anytime a market is open.

All my best next week,
MK
  • #4,254
  • Edited 8:59pm Feb 12, 2011 5:57pm | Edited 8:59pm
Quoting MidKnight
As a small aside regarding IB. Are you sure they will not trigger? There is a checkbox called something like 'Allow stops to be triggered outside regular trading hours' somewhere in the order settings. This should allow you to get them triggered anytime a market is open.

All my best next week,
MK
yep. I am aware of all those order settings. "anytime a market is open"... IDEAL/IDEALPRO FX market is not open during the weekend

EDIT: I recall IB sending out a news bulletin via TWS last year that they do not guarantee execution of the SL orders.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,255
  • Feb 14, 2011 9:53am Feb 14, 2011 9:53am
Missed a huge downward breakout while sleeping. Woke up and got back into aggressive stacking routine. Currently @ 2500 pips of unrealized profit with additional 97 pips booked to accommodate future losses. will post chart later

EDIT: Here's how my chart look...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Snap40.jpg Size: 144 KB
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,256
  • Feb 14, 2011 2:56pm Feb 14, 2011 2:56pm
Quoting VEEFX
Sharing further thought process on recent actions taken:
Attachment

P.S. Unless someone knows of a way this forum allows to edit my previous posts, I feel I am cluttering this thread so won't be posting my frequent analysis from now on. I am not sure if they add a lot of value. Perhaps an end of week update should suffice going forward

EDIT: Forgot to include the main reason why I am still biased on my Short hindsight...
Attachment
Hi Vee

nice as previously.
I wonder what do you recommend if I have a day job? A am goin in the market on my mobile, I just opened a VPS and seting it up. Bottom line is, I can see hard how I could monitor so long the trades and check the market so often. I think this is the reason I have all the 4 positions I have to BE. Maybe I am wrong.

By the way, how do you get the small arrow of your trades?

thx
Kind Regards zol
  • #4,257
  • Feb 14, 2011 9:51pm Feb 14, 2011 9:51pm
Quoting VEEFX
P.S. my 2 cents for those who think setting trades @ BE over weekend is 100% risk-free. It is quite the contrary as there is no broker I know of (except Oanda) that will honor SL during weekend gaps. Some brokers will trigger at Sunday open price (which is bad) and some brokers (like Interactive Brokers that I use) will not trigger at all letting the trades go down in loss (which is horrible). This happened to me during the debt crisis in Greece last year turning my profitable position into a $7000 loss with a weekend gap over 100+ pips in eurusd....
Thanks for posting this advice Vee. This is something that alot of newbs do not understand and its nice to see it explained so well. I would like to add that I have seen weekend gaps of well over 250 pips and more!

Dan
  • #4,258
  • Feb 15, 2011 3:12am Feb 15, 2011 3:12am
Quoting VEEFX

P.S. Unless someone knows of a way this forum allows to edit my previous posts, I feel I am cluttering this thread so won't be posting my frequent analysis from now on. I am not sure if they add a lot of value. Perhaps an end of week update should suffice going forward ]
I enjoy your trade posts, if you're concerned about cluttering up this thread, there is a trade thread that accompanies this thread that hasn't been used much lately, maybe post in them there
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255481

Kim
  • #4,259
  • Feb 15, 2011 5:31am Feb 15, 2011 5:31am
Quoting VEEFX
Hi zol,

...

p.s, If you have unrealized profit, only then you should let your trade go into negative pips without SL set and watch very closely for signs to close out and take a loss.
Hi Vee

thank you very much to your effort you put into responding. unfortunatelly I am in my office now and do not have the time to write some worthy response but I will do when I can.
In a nutshell, I agree with your suggestions. I will need to work a lot to create my own way of trading - a quest I have been doing for 2 years now and will never stop.

Have a good day for now.
Kind Regards zol
  • #4,260
  • Edited 5:55am Feb 15, 2011 5:41am | Edited 5:55am
Quoting VEEFX
It just dawned on me that we could have mini-'legs' of millipede within a single stacking opportunity....I call it micro-position management
Maybe you can expand further. From your posted screenshot I can't see what you exactly are pointing to or referring to with the boxes and all the lines. I'm not familiar with MT4. Also, please elaborate what your definition of a micro-position is.

With thanks,
MK
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