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Pitchfork Goldmine!

  • #1,321
  • Edited 1:51pm Feb 10, 2011 8:06am | Edited 1:51pm
Hi Kapital,

Here is my view of Eur-Cad. Price is making lower highs and lower lows...so I draw a "down-sloper" using high-low-high. Notice the touches this fork gets. Then I included an internal fork for fine-tuning...and look at the entry for the long at a switchback of the U-MLH.

I am of the opinion that everything in the body, even the appendix has a purpose (and it does). I try to treat price action the same. Cutting parts off causes me to lose vital information and function in analysis.

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad 2-10-11daily.jpg Size: 95 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,322
  • Feb 10, 2011 8:08am Feb 10, 2011 8:08am
Quoting FX4Newbies
So it appears that the spike is nullified (action+reaction=zero), then you proceed from that level. Maybe the effect of the spike is "absorbed" into the support area, giving you an area of consolidation to go off of the width. That is alot of swing to ignore, but if it works for you...

FX4Newbies
The price action is no doubt real. However, price showed that it didn't want to hang out down there. When price had enough "juice" to break through resistance which was capped off by the high of the candle with the huge spike, going short after that should not even had been in the equation.

I treat that lower price action as a hole in the floor...I step over it.

Let me add, that the lower price action may be useful on a larger framework (in fact it is). I just found what I drew most useful in this particular setting.

Let's call it: TRIMMING THE FAT
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,323
  • Feb 10, 2011 8:17am Feb 10, 2011 8:17am
Quoting kapital
The price action is no doubt real. However, price showed that it didn't want to hang out down there. When price had enough "juice" to break through resistance which was capped off by the high of the candle with the huge spike, going short after that should not even had been in the equation.

I treat that lower price action as a hole in the floor...I step over it.
You are a thinking trader for sure..thinking through price action or "reading between the lines" of price action. Not necessarily a bad thing. Like I said, "whatever works is good martial arts". What I have found is that the lines play out down the road when you least expect, so I try to let price give me as much information as possible. Like your statement though...I treat that lower price action as a hole in the floor...I step over it.

You understand your trading mind and what works for you. Chi-Ching I guess.

Take care,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,324
  • Feb 10, 2011 8:23am Feb 10, 2011 8:23am
Quoting kapital
let me add, that the lower price action may be useful on a larger framework (in fact it is). I just found what i drew most useful in this particular setting.

Let's call it: Trimming the fat

Kapital... the LEAN, mean trading machine!!! LOLOL. It goes back to the trader's ultimate goal I guess.

FX4

P.S. Gotta run. Enjoyed the Chart-Chat.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,325
  • Feb 10, 2011 8:35am Feb 10, 2011 8:35am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hi Kapital,

Here is my view of Eur-Cad. Price is making lower highs and lower lows...so I draw a "down-sloper" using high-low-high. Notice the touches this fork gets. Then I included an internal fork for fine-tuning...and look at the entry for the long as a switchback of the U-MLH.

I am of the opinion that everything in the body, even the appendix has a purpose (and it does). I try to treat price action the same. Cutting parts off causes me to lose vital information and function in analysis.

FX4Newbies
Hi, I am relatively new to this site. Just came across this chart for eurcad. I just posted a trade using the 4hr chart using pitchfork. Pitchfork analysis makes up about 20% of my analysis. I am by no means an expert, but I do have a few set ups that I trade. I like the info you have presented here.

I have included a link to the post. I didn't include them all, but just the ones with the fork. I posted the trade last night using pitchfork. Could you just give it a quick look and tell me if I am using it correctly. Or is there anyone here who can help? I would like to fine tune this tool.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10265
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10267

Thanks
  • #1,326
  • Edited 1:56pm Feb 10, 2011 8:40am | Edited 1:56pm
Quoting ZeroSumGame
Hi, I am relatively new to this site. Just came across this chart for eurcad. I just posted a trade using the 4hr chart using pitchfork. Pitchfork analysis makes up about 20% of my analysis. I am by no means an expert, but I do have a few set ups that I trade. I like the info you have presented here.
Hi ZeroSumGame,

Glad you like the info. presented. Would certainly respond but a little later today. Trying to go out the door. Maybe Kapital has some thoughts to share if he is still around.

Thanks for posting,

FX4

P.S. Forgot to mention, there are also some Pitchfork basics on the blog.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,327
  • Edited 3:55pm Feb 10, 2011 8:59am | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting kapital
An example of a price action spike on the Daily EUR/CAD:
Hey Lean Machine,

Look at these touches...I get the same entry without chopping anything off...and I gain more insight into overall price action. This will generally be my first approach, though I understand that "emergency circumstances" may warrant "emergency measures"...and calculated ones at that.

Just keep Chi-Chinging!!!

FX4

P.S. Out the door now. Later...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad 2-10-11daily-2.jpg Size: 99 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,328
  • Feb 10, 2011 9:15am Feb 10, 2011 9:15am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hi ZeroSumGame,

Would certainly respond but a little later today. Trying to go out the door. Maybe Kapital has some thoughts to share if he is still around.

Thanks for posting,

FX4

P.S. Forgot to mention, there are also some Pitchfork basics on the blog.
OK perfect, thank you
  • #1,329
  • Feb 10, 2011 9:50am Feb 10, 2011 9:50am
Does anyone know how to implement schiff line on accucharts. Also, how do i add inner and outer sliding parallel lines?
  • #1,330
  • Edited 1:25pm Feb 10, 2011 12:48pm | Edited 1:25pm
Quoting ZeroSumGame
Hi, I am relatively new to this site....
Hello ZeroSumGame,

Took a look at the first EurCad H4 chart. Could not see your Pivot 1 but I am presuming to be close. I also added an inner fork and Warning Lines (WLs) to fine tune price action. Looks like your fork was drawn correctly. Also the Fork Basics on the blog should help.

The inner fork on the second link looks fine as well. There is much to learn about the principles and applications involved in the use of the Andrews' Pitchfork. At least you are off to a good start.

I have never used AccuCharts so I cannot help there. I believe Kapital has. Next time he drops by perhaps he can answer the questions you asked.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad 2-10-11h4.jpg Size: 88 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,331
  • Edited 2:00pm Feb 10, 2011 1:35pm | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello Kapital,

Here is my view of Usd-Jpy...on H1. Need a tell as it is in a place of decision. This pair seems to want to go upward. No need for us to guess in my opinion. Just wait on the market to speak .

FX4
Well, Usd-Jpy finally pushed upward. Didn't dawn on me until just now. I guess the market spoke clearly enough. That was three days ago. Shucks. Talk about patience.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,332
  • Feb 10, 2011 2:12pm Feb 10, 2011 2:12pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello ZeroSumGame,

Took a look at the first EurCad H4 chart....
Thank you for looking at my set up. I have always been interested in all of the nuances of the fork method, but I didn't want to cough up the money for it, lol...

I've read your blog, as well as watched youtube videos of the method before. Without, taking the course, it is hard to develop an eye for every single opportunity. It seems like I have to "fish" for those smaller forks, because most of them don't hold up and you have to constantly readjust. That's why I use a basic approach with the fork. Because I am mainly a swing trader that uses price action.

To answer your question, I took the high from 1.4282 as my pivot 1 from the 4hr chart. This gives me a wide fork. I normally do this when I expect a trade to go a certain way for a long period of time. Then I trade the larger swings on a smaller time frame with a main bias towards the direction of the fork. I also look for respect at major fib levels, and create smaller forks within the large fork. But, still wide enough to trade profitably.

I guess I will keep up with the forum and try to pick up on the finer techniques.

Thanks again for your help
  • #1,333
  • Edited 6:10pm Feb 10, 2011 2:24pm | Edited 6:10pm
Quoting ZeroSumGame
Thank you for looking at my set up....I guess I will keep up with the forum and try to pick up on the finer techniques.
I think your trading approach is well thought out. Finer techniques really have meaning when a solid foundation has already been laid. Come across it every so often: fork traders who get into tricky places because they're not clear about trading and fork fundamentals, not to mention market structure and price action.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,334
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:17pm Feb 10, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting ZeroSumGame
Does anyone know how to implement schiff line on accucharts. Also, how do i add inner and outer sliding parallel lines?

In order to draw the schiff lines, start off by drawing fibonacci lines on points A and B. Then, place the handle of the fork on the appropriate location (halfway vertically for a schiff or halfway vertically and then halfway to the right horizontally for the modfied schiff).

In order to draw sliding parallels, all you can just choose the channel line drawing tool and draw the first line along one of the lines of the pitchfork. After doing so, the tool is automatically set for the placing of the next line at any point of your discretion.

You can also draw as many additional lines with the same slope on either side of the the two lines. First, click either line with your mouse and then look for the small black dots (circle) along the line. Place your mouse over any of dots. Then, click and hold the mouse button and drag the mouse away from the line. The resulting lines should have the same slope and width as the channel line.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MODIFIED.GIF Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: sliding 1.GIF Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: sliding 2.GIF Size: 34 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #1,335
  • Feb 11, 2011 1:01am Feb 11, 2011 1:01am
Quoting kapital
In order to draw the schiff lines, start off by drawing fibonacci lines on points A and B....
Great info... I couldn't find any tutorials about it. I didn't realize that it was a manual process. I knew how it was calculated, but I couldn't figure it out with this software. Maybe it isn't popular enough to include it as a standard tool. I will be playing with this over the weekend to get more efficient with it.

Thanks again
  • #1,336
  • Feb 11, 2011 2:43am Feb 11, 2011 2:43am
I am going to analyze this pair using some things I know about price behavior and try to integrate it with what I have learned here. Feedback would be greatly appreciated. I am not an expert forker, however I do use it on a very basic level with some success. My main analysis is price action swings with support and resistance.

Currently, I am anticipating two selling scenarios:

1) If price retraces to the confluence zone, I will be looking to short. Depending on the time of day and momentum on smaller time frame as well. If it is too late in the day, I may wait until sunday.

2) If price breaks current low @ 3491 on high momentum, I will take the trade and target the 3420 area for Target profit. The reason why is because it is in the direction of the overall trend and beneath both inner forks. Low risk set up, high probability trade. 3420 is a major monthly pivot as well as 130 pips from the high of the day. 3550-130 = 3420.

P.S. Usually, if I anticipate a retracement before my main position, I quickly hop on board, then reverse my position towards the overall trend. This is hard to do with this pair because of the higher spread. This decreases my overall mathematical expectation, thus I play it safe and stay patient.

Comments are encouraged and appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.1hr.2.11.11.JPG Size: 143 KB
  • #1,337
  • Edited 3:53am Feb 11, 2011 3:36am | Edited 3:53am
Quoting ZeroSumGame
I am going to analyze this pair using some things I know about price behavior and try to integrate it with what I have learned here....
Hello again,

Just happened to see this at the time price is lurking around the .3491 area. There is an area of support there: the place to watch for sure.

I think your plan is sound. If the area of confluence shows weakness, then that might be a good place to look an entry. If it falls from here, look for switchback action before the fall. Doesn't always happen, but it does quite often. These "laundry" moves are very profitable for you know who.

Your ultimate target seems obvious. Follow the forks though. I believe you are more a swing trader so you should be used to the fluctuations as price heads that way.

Don't assume anything: just plan your trade (and you have) and trade your plan. I'd say you know very well what you are after, just looking to improve on it.

All the best,

FX4Newbies
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad 2-11-11h1.jpg Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad 2-11-11h1-2.jpg Size: 108 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,338
  • Edited 4:10am Feb 11, 2011 3:59am | Edited 4:10am
Will be around for about another 10 minutes or so if there are any comments to come. Will pop back on around 7:00 am EST to post the EU update, then I'll be off again until after market closes, unless something happens to change that plan.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,339
  • Feb 11, 2011 4:08am Feb 11, 2011 4:08am
Quoting kapital
In order to draw the schiff lines....
Thanks Kapital for sharing that info.

FX4

P.S. Signing off now. Be back around 7:00 am EST.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #1,340
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:45am Feb 11, 2011 5:45am
I'm using this pitchfork as my primary pitchfork (I still have in the background the other one I used to "trim" price) since it is now fulfilling a better role at containing price. I'm looking for price to eventually reach the encircled area (will shift with time).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC.GIF Size: 38 KB
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
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