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CHOROS System

  • #3,861
  • Feb 9, 2011 3:40pm Feb 9, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting kostas1
I took a kind of a "scooping up" trade. All day I only had a +7p profit from an EU scalp but in the afternoon, I noticed this strong upwards move for GU. When the M15 bar bounced from M15 10 and at the same time crossed H1 and weekly pivot upwards, I got in long. Target was H4 35 but I closed earlier at +39p. This is not recommended for newbies, so just keep it at the back of your head for now...
Even if I had seen that (and maybe in a couple of years I would), I still would not have gotten into the trade for a simple, but rather distrurbing, reason. My Weekly Pivot is about 10 pips higher than yours. It's pretty remarkable how a few hours difference in broker times can make such a huge difference in a Weekly indicator.
  • #3,862
  • Feb 9, 2011 5:53pm Feb 9, 2011 5:53pm
What a mess. H4 is wavering between the 35 and 50 and seems determined to stay there. Daily is still in an uptrend, but looks bearish in the short run. (It looks like it might come down for a bounce on the 35/50, and then either take off or make a nice head and shoulders pattern.) H1 is in moderate downtrend. M15 is just flat and confused.

I stayed out today. I’d like to say it was from some special wisdom on my part, but it was more due to a lack of sleep and an appointment in the early morning. Even on a yuk day, the dance has some interesting things to show.

1) 35 Bounce Trades. I marked these as a rectangle so I could discuss them as a group. None of these are actual trades because the MAs are so flat. The only one that would be tempting to me is (f) , where the MAs are on top of each other and in perfect confluence with the 100. But here’s how these bad trades did: a) 15 pips, b) BE, c) 20-35 pips, d) 15-20 pips, e) loss, f) 15-20 pips, g) 20-35 pips, h) loss. The losers are the 5th and the 3rd touches. I’m not suggesting that anyone should take these trades. At this point, I’m still just gathering observations.. Here, its pretty clear that if you took all these trades, you would still be up a minimum of 45 pips on the day (assuming a 20 stop loss, which is huge for the dance).

2) H1 35/50/62 Bounce. This is the confluence that Survivor pointed out. On the H1 there is the 35, 50 and 62, all parallel and moving down. On M15 there is the 200 and a RN. This trade is good for 20-30 pips,.

3) 10 Touch. Clay says to never use a stop more than 9 pips plus spread on a 10 touch. Here, that would make this trade a loser. It’s the first 10 touch after a pretty big move. It violates the 2 bar rule. It’s not a great trade, but I don’t see a strong reason not to take it, except maybe the length of the 2nd bearish candle. Here, there is lots of support below the trade with the Daily and Weekly pivots (again, I’m not as sure about these anymore seeing how much they vary), and the 35 and 50 which are right on top of each other. If you put the stop below the 35, you would have a 15-17 pip stop, and that might be acceptable. In that case the trade is good for 15 pips. It’s also possible that you would find a better entry on the M5.

4) 10 Touch combined with Constrainment on 200. Here we get 4 bars in a row that touch the 10. The angle isn’t great. If there was nothing else to the trade, it would be borderline. But the first two bars have their lower body touch the 200, and the next 2 touch it with the wick only. No matter where you took the entry on this trade, the result would be the same. Good for 15-20 pips.

5) 10 Touch. Loser. I don’t know if this is the second touch or the 5th. The MA is as steep as the last trade. There is a RN in confluence with the MA (2.5 pips below). It’s a two bar retrace. But, the time of day is now wrong -- after 2 NY time. I think the last consideration makes this a no trade. Otherwise it looks good.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11508143_ MBT MetaTrader 4 - GBPUSD,M15-7.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #3,863
  • Feb 9, 2011 7:08pm Feb 9, 2011 7:08pm
1 and 2) 35 Bounces. Winners. The 35 and 50 are flat, so this should probably be a no trade. They are however, almost on top of each other and converging. Each of these would be good for about 15 pips, but I think it's probably best to stay out here. Note: I didn't mark the next touches of the 35 because the retraces were less than 10 pips. Clay says at least 15 pips for the retrace.

3) 200 Bounce) This one is not a Dance trade. I keep the 200 on my chart because of the EOHaters stuff. Here there's a perfect bounce off of it, in confluence with absolutely nothing that I can see. I can't imagine taking this trade, with the 200 just sitting there on its own, but the behavior is still worth noting. (Another Note: With the Daily and the H1 both in uptrend mode, I'm ignoring the possible short entries here. I think they are no trades given the higher time frams.)

4) 10 Touch. First touch after a pretty big move up. Violates the two bar rule. But there is a nearly perfect confluence with the Daily R1. It looks to me like this is a good, but not perfect trade. And a loser.

5) 10 Touch. Best 15 minute trade of the day. Actually, its probably the only good trade off the M15. Nice two bar retrace. Steep MA. No big resistance ahead. Good for 30 pips.

And on the H1:

6) Confluence Bounce and then Constrainment: First there is an almost perfect confluence of the 35, 50, 62, and 100 MAs. Then price ping pongs from the 35 to the RN three times, before finally resulting in a failed constrainment. There was 20 pips on each cycle off the round number. So, this could be good for at least 20, and maybe even 50-60 pips. I notice, however, that Survivor did not take this trade as a constrainment, which makes me doubt it. Perhaps the MAs are just to flat? And the 100 is definitely moving the wrong way at the intersection. So maybe what I'm calling a confluence is really just MA soup?

7) H1 10 Touch. This was the good trade that followed on the heels of the failure of trade 4. It's a near miss of the 10 on a one bar retrace. There's a good confluence both with the weekly pivot and with a S/R line (which only appear on my M15 charts).
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  • #3,864
  • Feb 9, 2011 8:27pm Feb 9, 2011 8:27pm
Quoting crazzzzzy
hello Survivor, in the attachment on this post #3486 you have written NO MAS ABOVE PRICE.. i dont get what thats suppose to mean? can you please explain... Thanking you in advance :-)

What i mean is if you see constrainment of price from below on 1H chart (Means 1H ma is below price; you want to go long here), in HTF (say 4H or 1D) None of the moving averages should be just above price. I see this because there will be a strong resistance there. Reverse for Short. No HTF ma below price.

Yesterday was a very good live example. We were discussing GU 1H short constrainment yesterday. Check it out on your chart. It failed because 1D 10 EMA was just below price and provided it support.

Hope that clarifies things.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,865
  • Feb 10, 2011 2:16am Feb 10, 2011 2:16am
duffypratt congrats for your daily analysis. But do you take any of these trades ?

I have done the same analysis of possible choros system trades for all the 2010 year. I used only the 15 min timeframe, and I did a visual backtesting. My take profit was 20 pips and my stop loss was 10 pips for all trades. The results are amazing. 400-500 pips every month and almost no week with losing result.

But live trading is very different. Many times a clear 10 ema touch observed afterward at the chart wasnt even close at live trading.

Sometimes moving averages seems to go up or down but at live trading were flat so you shouldnt make the trade.

And (my specialty) take profit which have not been hit or stop loss which were hit for a 0,00000001 pip.

I want to ask a question for all the member who write in this thread.

Who of you are consistently profitable ? I am sure Kostas1 is. But who else.

I am in a break even situation here. I am trying to correct my mistakes and understand how to make this system work for me.

Have a nice trading day.
  • #3,866
  • Feb 10, 2011 2:40am Feb 10, 2011 2:40am
Quoting FrankBlack
duffypratt congrats for your daily analysis. But do you take any of these trades ?

I have done the same analysis of possible choros system trades for all the 2010 year. I used only the 15 min timeframe, and I did a visual backtesting. My take profit was 20 pips and my stop loss was 10 pips for all trades. The results are amazing. 400-500 pips every month and almost no week with losing result.

But live trading is very different. Many times a clear 10 ema touch observed afterward at the chart wasnt even close at live trading.

Sometimes moving...
Hi Franck,

It is a tough thing trading. Although I am "dancing" only for 2 month, I believe I am profitable with 72% positive trades.

My daily target is 30 pips; I had days higher than that but many lower; I stop trading for the day at -30pips, whatever happens, which happened only 2 times so far.

I'm happy to realise my equity curve pretty much looks like Kostas' one in the first post (including the pre-dance part)
BUT there are days, like these past 2 days, where I don't trade at all as everything I see is messed up.

Basically, out of the visual backtesting, you'll only get a fraction of trades: focus on great confluences matching by the rules trades, and be patient.
for the first month, take your 10 pips profit as soon as you have it: it will build both account and confidence. As you start getting the motion, allow bigger moves. Also 10 pips stop is not enough, at least if you try to catch 30 pips moves. Finally with a system like this which aims to yield 70+% rate, don't focus on R:R of 1 or more! I see no problem having a 15 pips stop with a 10 pips TP IF I have a 75% success rate! especially as my 10 pips TP starts becoming 20 then 30 as I get better at it.

I hope this helps and gives you hope I'm not alone here, I believe Survivor is doing better as well as quite a few others here. Just practice on a demo account, on the simulator, NOT visual backtesting (although what Duffyprat does is very useful to speak fluent CHOROS )

Cheers,
k-trdr
  • #3,867
  • Feb 10, 2011 2:50am Feb 10, 2011 2:50am
Quoting FrankBlack
But live trading is very different. Many times a clear 10 ema touch observed afterward at the chart wasnt even close at live trading.
i suppose you could use the M5 with the M15 HTFs on it, it is much better to see if the touch happened or not.
  • #3,868
  • Feb 10, 2011 3:35am Feb 10, 2011 3:35am
Quoting duffypratt
Even if I had seen that (and maybe in a couple of years I would), I still would not have gotten into the trade for a simple, but rather distrurbing, reason. My Weekly Pivot is about 10 pips higher than yours. It's pretty remarkable how a few hours difference in broker times can make such a huge difference in a Weekly indicator.
That is true, I only now realised that, so that means pivot points since they are calculated on opening/closing times Kostas PP which are GMT+2, my PP in london and my fellow dancer in New York we all have different pivot points. So if the price is respecting some pivot points we only have to figure out what pivot points are respected!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #3,869
  • Feb 10, 2011 4:29am Feb 10, 2011 4:29am
Quoting K_Minos
That is true, I only now realised that, so that means pivot points since they are calculated on opening/closing times Kostas PP which are GMT+2, my PP in london and my fellow dancer in New York we all have different pivot points. So if the price is respecting some pivot points we only have to figure out what pivot points are respected!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good point. It is widely accepted that GMT+2 pivots are the most observed and therefore most respected.
  • #3,870
  • Feb 10, 2011 5:25am Feb 10, 2011 5:25am
EU touch of the 15M 10 EMA had not worked, but the RN stopped the price, i was short from the 10EMA with stop just at 3 pips above the RN, it had hit my SL and go all the way down ... Some day's it is just not going as we all want.

How ever the GU 35/50 touch worked and i'm almost at BE now
Better to lose opportunity, rather than capital !
  • #3,871
  • Feb 10, 2011 5:31am Feb 10, 2011 5:31am
Quoting FrankBlack
duffypratt congrats for your daily analysis. But do you take any of these trades ?

I have done the same analysis of possible choros system trades for all the 2010 year. I used only the 15 min timeframe, and I did a visual backtesting. My take profit was 20 pips and my stop loss was 10 pips for all trades. The results are amazing. 400-500 pips every month and almost no week with losing result.

But live trading is very different. Many times a clear 10 ema touch observed afterward at the chart wasnt even close at live trading.

Sometimes moving...
I've just started some live trading in the last few weeks. My results are about the same as yours, but I think for different reasons. My biggest problem now is the clock. I've been trying to train myself to get up at 5am and trade early. There at least seems to be some hope in that. But it also seems that I tend to get up about 15 minutes after a great, obvious trade happens -- like the no brainer on GBPUSD right now: Confluence of 35 50 200 and Weekly Pivot on M15, with 35 on H1 and the 50 on H4. I'd be doing better if I could somehow make myself trade from London open to close, but that's 2am to 10am here, and it just doesn't fit in with a real life.

Beside the clock, my troubles come basically from forcing trades when nothing is going on, and from exits. I tend to hold onto trades past the point where I'm sure they aren't working. I haven't reset a stop, but I have failed to tighten them as much as Clay suggests. And I am extremely adept at watching 9 pips in my favor become a full stop loss.

On the touch trades not working out because the touch only appears after the bars have printed: I tend to shoot for where the touch would happen if the slope of the MA stayed constant, and ignore the wiggling snake head on the MA itself.

So yes, live trading is a very, very different beast. I started doing the reviews for my own journal, in the hope that it would help me to start seeing things better live.
  • #3,872
  • Feb 10, 2011 5:40am Feb 10, 2011 5:40am
Quoting metrilbg
EU touch of the 15M 10 EMA had not worked, but the RN stopped the price, i was short from the 10EMA with stop just at 3 pips above the RN, it had hit my SL and go all the way down ... Some day's it is just not going as we all want.

How ever the GU 35/50 touch worked and i'm almost at BE now
I had the same problem last year with trades being taken out on my SL and then it rushing off in the direction I wanted. What I started doing was setting my SL to 10 pips + spread and then just leaving it. If you're making good entries then you don't have to worry about it getting hit, trades often retrace quite a bit and then move the way you want. I took the same trade you took and made +15, I just had a bigger SL. Everything about that trade was saying it was good so I just trusted the system and let it go.
  • #3,873
  • Feb 10, 2011 6:07am Feb 10, 2011 6:07am
Quoting arha
I had the same problem last year with trades being taken out on my SL and then it rushing off in the direction I wanted. What I started doing was setting my SL to 10 pips + spread and then just leaving it. If you're making good entries then you don't have to worry about it getting hit, trades often retrace quite a bit and then move the way you want. I took the same trade you took and made +15, I just had a bigger SL. Everything about that trade was saying it was good so I just trusted the system and let it go.
Thanks for the advice, if the SL was 2 pips higher it wouldn't be hit now, but that is trading right
Better to lose opportunity, rather than capital !
  • #3,874
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:16am Feb 10, 2011 7:16am
Quoting kostas1
Good point. It is widely accepted that GMT+2 pivots are the most observed and therefore most respected.
Yes, because GMT+2 midnight = 5PM EST (US) which is NY close time. Therefore your charts are synchronized to NY close.

GMT charts have the "Sunday candle" which is a few hours long. It's actually the Sydney Monday open session and not a "Sunday candle". See the problems we get lining on a big spinning ball in space!?! Bloodywell inconsiderate, I reckon! Anyway... back to the topic.....

Pivots are very difficult to use with some brokers for this reason, even those with offset settings to compensate, such as IBFX, who use GMT, but close 1 hour early on Friday (4 pm EST) and open 1 hour later on Monday AEST.

Not that you'd want to trade those hours, but it means the last few candles are missing from Friday, and there can be a reasonable movement in that hour, messing up Monday's Pivots!

The only way around it would be to have pivots where you could look up the values for the previous close and manually enter them!

Another reason I was glad to leave IBFX.
  • #3,875
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:24am Feb 10, 2011 7:24am
Quoting duffypratt
my troubles come basically from forcing trades when nothing is going on, and from exits. I tend to hold onto trades past the point where I'm sure they aren't working. I haven't reset a stop, but I have failed to tighten them as much as Clay suggests. And I am extremely adept at watching 9 pips in my favor become a full stop loss.
Tell me about it! Then I think sit and watch perfect entries got by. But a "few pennies dropped" watchng tonight's action on the lower time frame price action, which I've been struggling with. Missed them tonight, but I shouldn't do so in future.

Quoting duffypratt
On the touch trades not working out because the touch only appears after the bars have printed: I tend to shoot for where the touch would happen if the slope of the MA stayed constant, and ignore the wiggling snake head on the MA itself.
If I don't get that modified MA finished and posted this weekend, you will have permission to come around my place and beat me with a baseball bat!

I think it will help with this!
  • #3,876
  • Feb 10, 2011 7:33am Feb 10, 2011 7:33am
Quoting arha
I had the same problem last year with trades being taken out on my SL and then it rushing off in the direction I wanted. What I started doing was setting my SL to 10 pips + spread and then just leaving it. If you're making good entries then you don't have to worry about it getting hit, trades often retrace quite a bit and then move the way you want. I took the same trade you took and made +15, I just had a bigger SL. Everything about that trade was saying it was good so I just trusted the system and let it go.
I've had that a bit, but my biggest problem is not being patient and waiting for the right entries.... so my stop has been doing its job and saving my account!

It's obvious, and just after I hit the button, I'm saying to myself, "Why did you do that, you bloody nong?" ..... I KNOW I'm chasing it when I should be waiting for it to come to me!

I just need discipline! (Maybe I should get the missus to dress up like a dominatrix!)
  • #3,877
  • Feb 10, 2011 10:51am Feb 10, 2011 10:51am
Quoting bigtent
Saw them but in each case was not sure on taking them, as I thought it had to bust through to get out of the squeeze.

This is why I posted the remark about "playing ping pong until the band turned up" and we'd be able to start dancing.

I'm not quite ready to play that game, so I sat out and watched.

There were several "ping pong" trades on both the EU and Cable, but they were between various MAs from all time frames D1, H4, H1 and M15, as the the squeeze was happening.

On both pairs, D1 was pushing long from below, and M15 was either long...
Now this is getting too bad mates. Bigtent thou too?

I really think they were BAD trades. Thats NOT dance is what i think. Its crazy to think that every two bar retrace to every EMA should work. There are specific rules in manual and this trade follows none. 15M trades have to be away from 35/50 of 15 M and 1H trades have to be away from 35/50 of 1H. You cant say "i will watch 10/35/50 of 1H and count bars in 15M." in 1H retracements bar count have to be in 1h. That's is my understanding. here you are watching retracement to 1H 10 EMA and counting bars in 15M?

So here is the challenge- show me ONE such example from manual where two bar retracements to 1H MA has been counted on 15m Bars.

Note: Dont know if my wording is right but all i want is to learn. I really want to know what i am doing wrong with touch trade- this maybe it.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,878
  • Feb 10, 2011 11:14am Feb 10, 2011 11:14am
Quoting FrankBlack
duffypratt congrats for your daily analysis. But do you take any of these trades ?

I have done the same analysis of possible choros system trades for all the 2010 year. I used only the 15 min timeframe, and I did a visual backtesting. My take profit was 20 pips and my stop loss was 10 pips for all trades. The results are amazing. 400-500 pips every month and almost no week with losing result.

But live trading is very different. Many times a clear 10 ema touch observed afterward at the chart wasnt even close at live trading.

Sometimes moving...
Philosophy talk: Great question here. I really hope it doesnt make anyone pessimistic. But very important and intelligent question. Ultimately making or losing money is what matters. In my opinion nothing else matters in trading. Risk reward, success rate, simple or complex - all are BS. real test is - Am i making money. But unfortunately this is wrong question to ask. Because as the manual says, making or losing money is system independent. Your pnl depends on lots of things. System is just one of them. With same system one maybe losing money and another making money.

Practical advice: Stop worrying too much about system. No need to get amazing results in back test to apply a system. Even a slight edge is enough. What kills traders is focusing too much on one aspect of trading or looking for holy grail. I would suggest stick with one good system and concentrate on other aspects- psychology, money management etc.

My experience: Contrary to what you may believe if you go through my posts, i am not making millions. But reason is not the system. I have mastered only one type of trade and am making lots of money there. But i am tired of waiting for constrainments and get frustrated (psychology) so i am trying to learn touch trades and losing money there. But what this system has done is it has given me enormous confidence. I know i can take pips out of market when i see constrainments. Am getting better at touches and look forward to days when i will master whole of dance. Really pains me that none of old hands are around to post charts or help. Endroute and Kostas are always there but cant ask too much from too few people.

Final note: About backtesting- generally results wont be same as live trading. Most of the cases live trading will give much worse result.

But once you gain good exp real trading will give much better result. Reasons- you will watch HTF and PA real good. Am sure seniors here don't blindly follow three or four rules. They can see things quite differently than a newbie can.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #3,879
  • Feb 10, 2011 11:17am Feb 10, 2011 11:17am
Quoting Survivor
Now this is getting too bad mates. Bigtent thou too?

I really think they were BAD trades. Thats NOT dance is what i think. Its crazy to think that every two bar retrace to every EMA should work. There are specific rules in manual and this trade follows none. 15M trades have to be away from 35/50 of 15 M and 1H trades have to be away from 35/50 of 1H. You cant say "i will watch 10/35/50 of 1H and count bars in 15M."...
Listen to the man here......He is correct.
The only trade there was a confluence of H1 35/50/62 and RN 1.6100. There was a nice rejection M5 bar at GMT 8:40am 9/2/2010 at the RN. That was a nice CHOROS short from higher TF (i.e. H1).
  • #3,880
  • Feb 10, 2011 11:51am Feb 10, 2011 11:51am
Quoting Survivor
Now this is getting too bad mates. Bigtent thou too?

I really think they were BAD trades. Thats NOT dance is what i think. Its crazy to think that every two bar retrace to every EMA should work. There are specific rules in manual and this trade follows none. 15M trades have to be away from 35/50 of 15 M and 1H trades have to be away from 35/50 of 1H. You cant say "i will watch 10/35/50 of 1H and count bars in 15M."...
I completely agree with you. The manual doesn't have any examples of higher time frame trades at all. They were never strictly dance. I think Clay said to use the higher time frames for direction and confirmation. (In fairness, I think he also says, either in the manual or the original thread, that signals work in higher time frames, but they are less frequent and require bigger stops.)
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